Last week: 10-6, though on four of the six misses I got the win with the points. 110-60 on the season forecast. 

Thursday Night

- Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5): This matchup features the best offensive line in the league against the worst offensive line. Dallas is renowned for their fearsome front, while Minnesota’s offensive line only strikes fear in its own quarterback, the perennially skittish Sam Bradford.

In this game it could be even worse for Sammy Sleeves. Center Joe Berger will miss this one, which means Nick Easton will make his first career start trying to protect Bradford from a Dallas pass rush that doesn’t have a dynamic presence but is incredibly well-coordinated and cohesive across the front.

Getting Barry Church back helps reinforce the middle of the field behind the front. Not that the Cowboys will need a lot of help to stop Minnesota’s league-worst rushing attack. The Vikings remain on pace to be the first team this century to average less than 3 yards per carry for the season. Barring Mr. Easton unexpectedly spurring a breakout from Matt Asiata or the Minnesota offense going more to the wildcat, it’s unlikely to improve while playing from behind against the Cowboys.

Cowboys 28, Vikings 16 

Sunday Best

- Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-6): Two teams noted for high-powered offenses, but it’s been defensive improvement that has the Lions and Saints playing more competitively.

The difference here figures to be the more consistent Saints' offense. While Detroit is certainly clutch and can also produce chunk plays, New Orleans has the better, more balanced offense. Drew Brees & Co. can grind out the 8-play, 82-yard scoring drive a lot more reliably than Matthew Stafford and his group of drop-prone wideouts.

What could be the equalizer is Detroit’s outstanding special teams. Matt Prater is the best pressure kicker in NFL history, and punter Sam Martin is having an All-Pro year, leading the league in net yards by almost 2 full yards per kick. Andre Roberts is tied for the league lead in punt returns of 10+ yards, too. That helps explain why Detroit wins all those close games. If this one stays close, I like the Lions. I’m worried New Orleans runs away early and the Lions have too many dead drives and drops.

Saints 29, Lions 20

- Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5): Both these teams come off impressive, intense wins which greatly aided their playoff quests. I love how Matt Ryan continues to spread the ball around when opponents take away Julio Jones, and the balance between the run and pass game makes Atlanta very difficult to defend.

Kansas City showed different dimensions on both offense and defense. Offensively we saw rookie Tyreek Hill break out; he’s probably the fastest player in the NFL and it’s not just straight-line track speed either. He’s not going to score three TDs in divergent fashion again, but he alters how defenses play the Chiefs. And getting Justin Houston back to terrorize opposing QBs is exactly the spark the Chiefs solid but stagnant defense needed.

Houston and his mates have their hands full with Ryan and the Falcons in Atlanta. One advantage for the Falcons--they played a similar style of attacking scheme in Arizona last week. They won’t have to dramatically adjust their blocking or offensive game plan to adapt to what they’ll see from the Chiefs.

Falcons 28, Chiefs 24

- Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-6.5): It’s downright amazing how quickly everyone leapt back on the Packers bandwagon after the Monday Night Football victory over Philadelphia. Yes, Davante Adams came alive and Aaron Rodgers looked spunky and sharp once again. Yes, they held the Eagles to just 13 points as the Packers injury-depleted secondary played its best game of the season.

There are two problems with this equation. First, the Eagles aren’t very good. Beating them don’t impress me much, to quote Shania Twain. Second, there is very little consistency to Adams or Rodgers this year. Houston doesn’t do much well, not nearly as much as you would expect for a division leader, but they are a very good pass defense. They can generate a rush, they transition between layers well and they generally tackle better than most teams.

If the quarterback situations were equal here, even in Green Bay I’d take the Texans. But Aaron Rodgers and his C+ game would beat Brock Osweiler’s B+ game 7 days a week, and Osweiler struggles to produce even a D more often than not.

Packers 26, Texans 20

Sunday Rest

- Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots (-13.5): Last week’s blowout loss to New Orleans elevated Jeff Fisher into second place all-time in coaching losses. He passed Tom Landry, who coached an extra six seasons to accrue his losses. Fisher takes another step towards Dan Reeves at the top of the list with 165 in what is sure to be a devastating beatdown in New England. Reeves won 190 games, and Fisher is currently at 173. That means Fisher would have to go 17-2 to match Reeves’ win/loss total. Considering he doesn’t know who plays for this week’s opponent, that’s a reach…

Patriots 34, Rams 13

- Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5): As I said last week, I will never forecast the Jaguars to win another game as long as Blake Bortles is the unquestioned quarterback. He starts, they lose. This week it’s a close loss to a Denver team that can only throw the ball to the left side of the field.

Broncos 19, Jaguars 15

- Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5): The Bengals are home underdogs to a team that showed very little in a Monday Night loss. That’s where this season has gone for Cincinnati with all the injuries on offense and the lack of improvement on defense. Tough to trust Philly but tougher to trust these Bengals…

Eagles 30, Bengals 21

- Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5): Miami has won six in a row and seized temporary control of the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. One of the biggest reasons is Ryan Tannehill finally looking comfortable as an NFL quarterback and an offensive line that finally looks functional.

All good things must end, and Miami’s impressive run stops in Baltimore. The Ravens don’t get enough credit for being tough to play, and they’re one of the smartest teams in the league. Their defense is potent and stingy, particularly in its own end of the field. The Baltimore offense is sporadic and prone to long struggles, but a playmaker like Steve Smith will find a way against a Miami defense that is pretty good overall but prone to a lapse here and there.

Ravens 16, Dolphins 14

- San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (NL): Matt Barkley played well enough in Chicago’s loss to Tennessee last week to merit another opportunity. I like that the Bears promoted rookie wideout Daniel Braverman to the active roster to help him, as Braverman can actually catch the ball. Chicago dropped 10 passes last week, including 2 would-be game winners on the final drive.

They will need to maximize every opportunity against San Francisco, as the Niners should be able to score with Colin Kaepernick showing increasing viability at quarterback. Chicago lost LB Danny Trevathan, who would be the primary Kaep containment system. Barkley and impressive rookie RB Jordan Howard will have to be sharp on what figures to be a chilly day on the shores of Lake Michigan.

Bears 28, 49ers 27

- Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders (-3.5): If the NFL were just starting out today, neither Buffalo nor Oakland would be a market the league would strongly consider. That’s a shame, because these are two of the most loyal and enthusiastic fan bases even though neither team has won a playoff game in well over a decade. Instead of chasing all the new dollars and latest trends, maybe the NFL should look at why Buffalo and Oakland fans are so dedicated to a game they seldom win.

Raiders 30, Bills 21

- New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5): Every so often the Steelers remind us they’re really darn good. I think the Giants fit that bill too, and when they get defensive line play like they did in Cleveland they can play with anyone. Pittsburgh is not Cleveland, alas…

Antonio Brown is poised for a big game. That’s true every time No. 84 takes the field, but this week he’s out to prove he’s the better big game receiver than Odell Beckham. I like the motivational angle. I also like Pittsburgh’s more balanced offense and their defensive matchup against New York’s biggest weakness, the offensive tackle position. In a game where Eli Manning might have to throw 50+ times, that’s a real problem.

Steelers 33, Giants 22

- Washington at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5): Methinks the sports books are still too high on Arizona and not high enough on Washington. The Cardinals of their recent playoff vintage are nowhere to be found in 2016, and Washington proved they are capable by staying toe to toe with Dallas. The extra three days of rest from playing on Thanksgiving helps Kirk Cousins & Co. too.

Washington 33, Arizona 24

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Diego Chargers (-4): Two weeks in a row the Buccaneers have provided the “Any Given Sunday” upset win. Even though I opined in this week’s $.10 they aren’t eligible, the line here says otherwise. Keep doubting Jameis Winston, a swift and ever-improving defense, and a team which continues to gain confidence in itself…

Buccaneers 26, Chargers 21

- Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5): The look on Cam Newton’s face when Khalil Mack stripped the ball from his hands and sent the Panthers to yet another defeat? That was the look of resignation to defeated fate. Carolina played one of its best games of the year under desperate circumstances and it still wasn’t enough. Playing in Seattle on the heels of that crushing loss could be very ugly.

Seahawks 28, Panthers 12

Monday Night

- Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (+2): Want to know why the Colts aren’t going anywhere? This is what Head Coach Chuck Pagano is selling his team:

Never mind that his team plays in a dome. Never mind his bewildered confusion between cause and effect. Never mind he’s got the highest-paid player in NFL history at quarterback and an offense built around his throwing talents. Never mind this game will unfortunately reinforce his point, because the sputtering Jets don’t match up well with the Colts unless Ryan Fitzpatrick coughs up one of his random brilliant games.

Colts 24, Jets 20

College Picks

MAC Championship: I’ll be at Ford Field supporting my alma mater, Ohio University. I’m not expecting a positive outcome but it will be fun to cheer on the Bobcats nonetheless. The Broncos row the boat to the Cotton Bowl.

Western Michigan 33, Ohio 12

Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin 20, Penn State 17

Bedlam: Oklahoma 41, Oklahoma State 37. Sorry, Stud…

PAC-12 Championship: Colorado 30, Washington 28

ACC Championship: Clemson 36, Virginia Tech 21

SEC Championship: Alabama 24, Florida 6