For most of the football nation, this weekend features an extra hour of sleep heading into Sunday. Of course that also means one extra hour of political coverage, something everyone on both sides of the aisle surely laments…

Last week: 7-7, and for the second week in a row that includes taking a loss on the tie game. 75-37 on the year.

Thursday Night

- Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5): Tampa Bay made an interesting move this week, especially in the context of facing Matt Ryan and the high-flying Falcons offense. They traded former starting CB Johnthan Banks to Detroit.

It’s not that the Buccaneers will miss Banks all that much; he was benched for a reason and was going to be cut. But a cosmetic tinkering before a big date is always dicey.

I once dated a girl whose hair color changed after a few dates, and even though she still had the nice eyes I couldn’t deal with the poor root job. Her eyebrows became strangely dark and distracting, too. Even though it was a radical change and most of her friends supported it, I was kind of repulsed. I have a feeling Buccaneers fans will feel the same way in this one.

Falcons 34, Buccaneers 24

Sunday Best

- Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2.5): As I wrote in this week’s first cent, the NFC East is back. The two teams in the middle of the standings square off in New York.

The key here is for the Giants offensive line to handle the Philly pass rush. New York has downfield weapons who can win against the Eagles’ decent secondary, but Eli Manning must have time to stand in the pocket and find them. If not, Rodney McLeod and Malcolm Jenkins are arguably the best playmaking safety tandem in the league and will make Manning pay for taking chances.

I’d feel better about the Eagles offense if they took more chances, but that’s just not in the cards with Carson Wentz right now. They seldom throw the ball down the field, and that’s a problem against a New York secondary that struggles vertically but handles business pretty well horizontally. Wentz can win this with a few well-placed shots, though they lack a reliable game-breaker at receiver too.

Giants 26, Eagles 24

- Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (+1): For three straight weeks the Sunday Night Football game has gone to overtime, so it’s natural to anticipate another close one here at the top of the AFC West.

The Raiders have topped 20 points just once in the last eight meetings between these two rivals, but this is a different Oakland offense. Derek Carr is in the MVP conversation thanks to Oakland’s 6-2 record and his consistent passing. He gets help from an offensive line that has allowed the lowest sack percentage, as well as Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper at receiver. Having that duo makes it tough for opponents to key on one option.

A key will be for the Raiders rushing attack to produce a big play or two. They’re capable but unpredictably so, and the Denver defense tackles quite well. If Oakland can’t set up the play action or establish favorable down/distance situations, they’re in real trouble against a Denver defense that has the look of a unit that knows it has to win games for their underwhelming offense.

I think the Raiders are going to relish the spotlight and come out all fired up to announce their presence with authority. My worry is that once the buzz wears off and Denver is still right there, the home team can’t summon a second or third act. I’m also worried about Sebastian Janikowski missing two potential game-winners last week in the overtime close shave in Tampa.

Broncos 26, Raiders 20 

Sunday Rest

- Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (+7.5): The Browns blew their best chance at cracking the win column last week. If you’re the type who believes that the most improbable outcome is the most likely to actually happen, this is your chance to show your swagger. Good luck with that…though Dak Prescott will need to be better than he did last week if the Browns defense plays to potential with new linebacker Jamie Collins.

Cowboys 27, Browns 20

- Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5): Minnesota is in disarray with two straight losses, including to the lowly Bears on Monday Night Football. Now they must deal with the surprise resignation of Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner, a development I wrote about for Today’s Pigskin. Turner jumped off the sinking ship, leaving behind Sam Bradford and the league’s worst offensive line and rushing attack.

If ever the Vikings were to get healthy, Detroit is the proper enemy. The Lions are atrocious on defense. Detroit is dead last in opposing completion percentage (73.6%), QB Rating allowed (113.7), third down conversion (49.5%) and tied for 30th in takeaways. In their eight games, the opposing QB has had his best season performance in yards and completion percentage seven times. Minnesota’s offense is bad, but they should find enough success to help their excellent defense. There might not be 75 combined rushing yards in this one.

Vikings 20, Lions 18

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (NL): The big question here is if Ben Roethlisberger plays, or if he sits another week with his wounded knee. This is a vital question, because as of press time Big Ben is questionable. Then there’s this…

Charlie Batch isn’t coming through that door anymore, though he’d probably still be better than Landry Jones even at age 41. This one gets a hedged forecast:

If Roethlisberger plays, Steelers win 34-20

No Roethlisberger, Ravens prevail 27-17

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5): Alex Smith will miss this game for the Chiefs, and that leaves the door open for an upset. So does the fact Jamaal Charles is done for the year and his top backup at RB, Spencer Ware, still isn’t cleared from the concussion protocol as of Wednesday’s practice. They also lost rookie left guard Parker Ehinger, who was steadily improving.

That’s a lot of holes to fill, even at home against the lifeless Jaguars. Nick Foles and Charcandrick West will need the Chiefs defense to play well early and demoralize Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville offense. For whatever reason, I think the Jaguars get it together enough for one week to make this one very interesting, if not get the outright win. I’ll ride the 50% chance of rain on Kansas City’s parade.

Jaguars 23, Chiefs 21

- Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-4.5): This is a surprisingly important game in the muddled AFC playoff race. The Chargers need a win to avoid falling too far behind the cluster of teams in the 4-5 win range, one of them being the Titans.

Two reasons I like the Titans to pull off what many would consider a big upset:

  • The Tennessee defense is adept at making opponents one-dimensional.
  • San Diego is vulnerable to RBs who can catch, and Demarco Murray should be healthy. He’s been outstanding in the passing game this year.

Titans 24, Chargers 19

- New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3.5): The Jets have won four in a row in Miami, as well as winning four of the last five overall meetings. I like what I saw from New York’s rushing offense and run defense the last two weeks, and their defense is finally creating takeaways (five in the last two weeks).

Miami is a tough nut to crack. They have 50 first downs the last two games but managed just 16 combined the two prior weeks. Now they’re coming off a bye and teams have had more time to digest the Jay Ajayi experience. I think the Jets slow up the dynamic Dolphin runner, and that forces Ryan Tannehill to win the game for the home team. I’ll begrudgingly trust Tannehill over Ryan Fitzpatrick, but this is a very low confidence forecast.

Dolphins 33, Jets 30

- New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (+4): I’ve said it before but it bears repeating--we’re going to look back at 2016 and wonder how in the world the 49ers blew out the Rams in Week 1 even though the Rams still appear destined for a sub-.500 record. It’s quite likely the only game this rebuilding roster wins.

Saints 34, 49ers 28

- Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (+3.5): Riding a hunch here. I think Cam Newton takes out his frustration against a Rams defense that is in real trouble if they don’t finish the sack. Here’s a Muppet News Flash! You won’t ever hear this from the analytical wonks, but the Rams are one of the worst teams at sealing the deal on D even with Aaron Donald; their sack percentage of 3.6 is 30th in the league, and they give up more TDs (7) than sacks they record (4) when they bring more than 4 on the rush. If you pressure Cam and don’t get him down to the ground, he’ll carve you like the rotting pumpkin you need to get off your porch.

Panthers 26, Rams 20

- Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers (-6.5): What could be a very attractive QB duel between Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers is likely lost by an Indianapolis defense that simply cannot stop the opponent from generating big plays. No team has given up more gains of 20 yards or more than the Colts. That’s a bad stat when facing a recently reinvigorated Rodgers in Green Bay. Luck will need one of his patented late-game miracles, but I just don’t see it with his supporting cast on the road.

Packers 36, Colts 27

Monday Night

- Buffalo Bills at Seattle Seahawks (-8.5): I’m confident the Seahawks will win at home, but I’m also equally confident the Seattle offense isn’t 8.5 points better than anyone. They might not even top that figure on their own, given their line issues and struggles in the red zone. Buffalo is good enough to keep it close in what figures to be a hard-hitting, low-scoring affair. Having said that, watch Seattle erupt for 40…

Seahawks 16, Bills 13

Bonus college picks

Navy 30, Notre Dame 24

Miami 31, Pittsburgh 28

Arkansas 27, Florida 21

Colorado 38, UCLA 20

Ohio State 20, Nebraska 17

Alabama 33, LSU 22