Last Week: 9-7 straight up for the second week in a row. Much like Andrew Luck, I start slowly. 8-8 against the spread. This is why my wife controls the checkbook… 

- Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-1): I’m not touching the line here with a 10-foot cattle prod. The Patriots are down to third-string QB, rookie Jacoby Brissett. I was not a Brissett fan in the draft process. In fact, he was my 22nd-rated QB in the class, behind many names most football fans have never heard of.

New England didn’t ask Brissett, who flopped miserably at Florida before catching his stride under considerably less pressure in Raleigh, to do much in injury relief on Sunday. If he wants to beat the Texans, he’ll have to prove he can find receivers down the field. The Houston secondary has looked vulnerable, so Brissett should get some shots. If Gronk returns (questionable as of press time) that will only help.

If Jimmy Garoppolo somehow manages to return with his sprained A/C joint, I really like the Patriots. The heroism at home would carry them. I lean towards the Patriots even with Brissett. One crazy fact: quarterbacks making their first NFL start under Bill Belichick are a perfect 5-0, dating back to Todd Philcox (?!) in Cleveland.

I think the New England defense can handle Brock Osweiler throwing to the explosive Nuk Hopkins and the exciting Will Fuller as well as any team can. Fuller’s catches are often an adventure but the fleet-footed rookie from Notre Dame has topped the 100-yard mark in his first two games and has no trouble getting open deep. They’ll get theirs, but I think the home team gets just a little more.

Patriots 24, Texans 22

Sunday Best

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5): The battle of Pennsylvania is the only Sunday game pitting two undefeated teams against one another.

It’s early in the season to draw much significance from statistics, but one really stands out in evaluating this matchup. The Steelers are dead last in sack percentage on defense, registering just one sack in 98 opposing dropbacks. They’re just not getting much of a pass rush. And what’s the best way to rattle a rookie QB?

By contrast the Eagles rank 5th in sack percentage. Jim Schwartz’s new defensive scheme is off to a flying start, a perfect fit for the personnel upfront, notably Brandon Graham.

Finishing those pressures is paramount against Ben Roethlisberger, who can still shake off a hit and deliver a strike down the field better than anyone. I think the Steelers are due for a breakout game on both sides of the ball, but the Eagles are a game opponent.

Steelers 27, Eagles 24

Sunday Rest

- Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (+4.5): The Roman-less offense tries out its new coordination against the visiting Cardinals, who got their defense righted quickly after struggling in the opener. Even at its best the Bills offense would have trouble with Arizona’s aggressive D and playmakers at all three levels. They’re not close to being their best, certainly not with Sammy Watkins hobbled and Cordy Glenn doubtful and trying to operate under a new coordinator in Anthony Lynn.

That doesn’t even mention the issues the lousy Buffalo defense will have with Carson Palmer and the playmakers at his disposal. They can be hot and cold, and if they’re cold the Bills have a legit chance. Consider this one of those 30% chances of rain if you’re Arizona; if enough events confluence together, it rains gold for the home team. Otherwise, I really like Arizona.

Cardinals 33, Bills 15

- Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5): Worse Detroit teams than this edition have given better Green Bay teams than this incarnation legit fits in recent years. The Lions' strengths, namely a deep and nasty defensive line and multiple speedy weapons on offense, matchup well with Green Bay’s vulnerabilities. The Lions' offensive line has improved considerably too, which can only help their cause.

Then again, this game is in Green Bay. Jason Hanson played for the Lions for 21 years (1992-2012) and never once won a road visit to the Packers. Last year’s triumph was Detroit’s first in Wisconsin since 1991. Expecting an actual winning streak is akin to my wife liking her chances with the freshly available Brad Pitt; she’s still smokin’ hot, but not in that supermodel league.

I will say this though: the Lions team from Week 1 would absolutely beat the Packers team from Week 2. If Aaron Rodgers isn’t sharp once again, the Packers could fall here.

Packers 34, Lions 27

- Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-9.5): The winless Dolphins are double-digit favorites at some books already. Why? How about the Browns starting their third quarterback in as many games this season. This time it’s rookie Cody Kessler.

Look up at the New England forecast. See the link where I ranked Brissett? I liked him a lot better than I did Kessler, who wound up as my 25th-ranked QB. Here’s the USC QB flow chart I wrote last fall on Kessler’s pro prospects:

Good luck, Cleveland.

Dolphins 30, Browns 3

- Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5): Congrats to Bengals wideout A.J. Green on the birth of his son, the awesomely named Easton Ace Green. Cincinnati needs all the positives it can garner after a sluggish 1-1 start.

The Bengals are having a lot of trouble on third downs, where they are barely converting 25% on offense. Denver’s otherwise strong defense has been surprisingly vulnerable on the money down, allowing over 50% conversions in their two wins. I’ll take the Broncos D to get its market correction here over Cincinnati’s offense, which once again will sorely miss standout TE Tyler Eifert.

Broncos 17, Bengals 14 

- Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers (-6.5): I liked Carolina even before Minnesota lost both RB Adrian Peterson and LT Matt Kalil. Although both were playing poorly, the Vikings don’t have the depth needed to overcome. Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata will compensate just fine for the rushing aspect of Peterson, but they’re not going to hold the D on play action or make the safeties commit to the box. And as bad as Kalil has been, Minnesota doesn’t have anyone to replace him on Sam Bradford’s blindside. This one might be ugly, though the Vikings D always gives them a chance.

Panthers 20, Vikings 10

- Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (-1.5): Oakland leads the league in yards per game, averaging 470 in the first two weeks. The problem is, the Raiders also lead the league in yards allowed. Oakland’s D has surrendered a ridiculous 517 yards per game to the Saints and Falcons. Tennessee isn’t physically capable of that many yards in a week, but if the Raiders can’t get more of a pass rush or a coordinated coverage effort in the back 7, Marcus Mariota & Co. might come closer than you think.

When looking at Tennessee’s defense, keep in mind the Lions had three touchdowns and 5 other first downs taken off the board last week thanks to penalties. They’re not apt to get that sort of officiating zeal or self-immolating opponent once again. The Raiders offense can outscore their own defensive ineptitude here.

Raiders 30, Titans 26

- Washington at New York Giants (-4.5): New York is 2-0, Washington is 0-2. The Giants have a chance to bury the quibbling Ethnic Slurs early. Reports of a lack of confidence in Kirk Cousins amongst his Washington teammates indicate the desperation of Jay Gruden’s defending NFC East champs. I’m just not sure Cousins is the right guy to lead them out of the desperation desert. The New York defense is no oasis, either. Big Snacks Harrison and a revamped New York D should have another strong outing a week after bottling up an explosive Saints attack.

Giants 27, Washington 21

- Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5): Will Los Angeles score a touchdown? They haven’t yet, but the Bucs D might be the tonic they need; the only NFC team allowing more points than Tampa Bay’s 64 thru two games is Washington.

I don’t like the Rams with the early start. I don’t like Tampa Bay’s offense without Doug Martin so much either, but I think Jameis Winston bounces back from a subpar week. The LA defense can suffocate, but they can also get beat down the field and that’s where the Bucs offense wins.

Buccaneers 23, Rams 16

- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-9): In the spirit of brevity--this one’s a lock even with Seattle’s legit offensive and injury woes. I like the Seahawks' D to score in this one.

Seahawks 20, 49ers 9

- Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1): Baltimore struggled for a half with lowly Cleveland but figured it out. The Jaguars had no answers for San Diego until garbage time. The coaching chasm between these two teams is bigger than the difference in having your hair done at a hoity salon and using a Flowbee while sitting on the commode.

Ravens 33, Jaguars 20

- San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5): At some point the world will finally realize the Colts just aren’t very good, and that Andrew Luck is not the elite all-world savior he’s lauded to be. Before that happens, take advantage. San Diego has serious injury problems but I’ll still take Philip Rivers over Andrew Luck on any given Sunday, including this one.

Chargers 29, Colts 24

- New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5): Brandon Marshall’s iffy injury status--he’s missed practice with both a knee and foot issue this week--cloud this forecast. The Jets offense will struggle without their best receiver. With Eric Decker and Matt Forte both looking less than 100%, it’s hard to see the Jets hit/miss offense striking often in Kansas City.

Chiefs 23, Jets 16

- Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): In Monday night’s humdrum home loss to Philadelphia, the Bears lost Lamarr Houston, Eddie Goldman, Danny Trevathan and Jay Cutler to injuries. That’s three of their top four defensive players up front, plus the starting quarterback.

Chicago will get zero sympathy from Dallas fans, who are still dealing with Tony Romo’s latest injury. They’re also dealing with all the suspensions on the defense. And they’re faring pretty well, thank you very much. Dak Prescott continues to impress as a rookie QB, and the Cowboys are doing a decent job manufacturing a pass rush. Both those successes should continue against the beat up Bears, who sport the worst starting offensive tackle duo in the league and might have the weakest CB tandem too. Having said that, new Bears QB Brian Hoyer is good for two freakishly strong games per year so be careful in being overconfident on the home team.

Cowboys 31, Bears 16

Monday Night

- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3.5): This is the 10th anniversary of the Steve Gleason game. If you haven’t done so already, please watch the fantastic A Football Life on Gleason, the hero of the first post-Katrina home game in New Orleans who is now battling ALS. You’ll laugh, you’ll cry and you’ll feel better at humanity for watching it.

Gleason will be in the house, and I think that emotional lift will carry the Saints. Aside from the intangible, I liked what I saw from the New Orleans defense last week a lot more than I’ve seen from Atlanta’s defense in the first two weeks.

Saints 36, Falcons 25