RealGM Analysis
Tight Ends
Tier 1: Rob Gronkowski
Tier 2: Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen
Tier 3: Delanie Walker, Travis Kelce, Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert
Tier 4: Julius Thomas, Gary Barnidge, Ladarius Green, Antonio Gates, Zach Miller, Martellus Bennett, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Tier 5: Jimmy Graham, Eric Ebron, Jared Cook, Jason Witten, Jordan Cameron, Dwayne Allen, Charles Clay
* Players in bold are a few special picks whom I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
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Analysis:
For the past few years and into the foreseeable future, Rob Gronkowski sits alone in tier 1. From there, Jordan Reed and Greg Olsen provide the next level of value, followed by another solid, talented group in tier 3, then tier 4 and even solid guys (remember Jimmy Graham?) in tier 5. Graham’s injury, a torn patellar tendon, is a particularly tough one to recover from, so the uncertainty drops him multiple tiers. I’ve got a few notes below regarding Julius Thomas and Zach Miller as my high value picks.
How to draft tight ends this year? I suggest a two tiered strategy. First, if you are picking towards the end of the first round (9th overall or later) and Gronk is available, feel free to snag him. If you don’t select Gronk, then I would recommend waiting for a long time and grabbing a TE from tier 4. Each of the tier 4 TEs could end up producing similar numbers to their tier 3 counterparts – they just come with a bit more risk. Setting Gronk aside, the vast majority of tight ends in the middle performance tiers (let’s say from the fourth best through the fifteenth) don’t perform all that differently, at least not enough to merit selecting a tight end with a high pick. So either grab the best, or otherwise wait and fill the position later in the draft.
Finally, a quick blurb as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Zach Miller: Not to be confused with the former tight end of the Seahawks with the same name, Zach Miller of the Chicago Bears emerged during the second half of last season, with a line of 31 catches, 404 yards and 5 TDs over the team’s last eight games. Now with Martellus Bennett traded to the New England Patriots, the Bears’ tight end spot resides solely with Miller. With Cutler having a good comfort level with Miller, look for the Bears’ tight end to continue where he left off. He has a low end TE1 ceiling and will be available late in your drafts.
Jared Cook: Perennial underachiever Jared Cook benefits from a massive change of scenery upgrade, leaving the worst passing offense of 2015 with the Rams and heading over to Aaron Rodgers and the prolific Packers’ passing game. Can Aaron Rodgers help lift Cook to the best season of his career? It’s certainly possible. Although the competition for balls thrown will be steep with the stable of WRs the Packers boast, but Cook has ability and Rodgers knows how to make use of his tight ends. Don’t trust Cook as anything more than a TE2, but he could deliver low end TE1 upside if things fall right. Cook’s worth a late round flier.
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