This part of the NFL offseason is the time where many of us turn to the money making endeavors. Sports books recently updated the season win total over/unders, and the movement creates some opportunities for the bold investor. The figures here are taken from Bovada, but the Las Vegas Hilton and several other books have essentially the same totals.

I’m still not sold on laying out any cash, but here is the way I lean with each of the AFC teams. The NFC edition will follow shortly.

Note that this column is best enjoyed while listening to the Poison classic I Want Action, which is still my go-to song in the shower. It’s less weird if you think of the lyrics in a gambling context…right?

- Baltimore Ravens, 8.5 wins

The Ravens finished 5-11 last year and didn’t exactly add much in the way of top-shelf contributors in the offseason. Of course, the biggest reason why they disappointed last year was a nasty rash of injuries and a rather alarming lack of depth. If the offensive skill position players are all healthy and the depth on the defense plays to its potential, this is a playoff team. Yet I can’t help but look back and see that, other than sweeping the rival Steelers, this team wasn’t good. At all. Betting on health is a tough sell. I like the under at -140 quite a bit.

- Buffalo Bills, 8 wins

Sports books send signals they don’t want your action from time to time, and the Bills here are a great example. The +/- is an even number (no and-a-half) and the pay line is the same -115 for both the over and under. In treading lightly, I wouldn’t touch either side. However, two recent injuries lead me towards the under. Sammy Watkins is the only real playmaking wideout, and they were heavily depending on first-rounder Shaq Lawson to bolster the pass rush. Both are likely to miss at least the first few games. A tepid nod to the under.

- Cincinnati Bengals, 9.5 wins

The Bengals finished 12-4 last season, though how they accomplished that impressive record makes it easier to understand how a team with such a strong record and only minor personnel losses could be expected to regress so much. After jetting out to an 8-0 start, Marvin Lewis’ crew slogged to the finish and once again got bounced without a playoff win. Still, I believe the improvement we saw in Andy Dalton sticks and this is once again the team to beat in the AFC North. They should be favored to win every game after Week 7. I like the over here at -140.

- Cleveland Browns, 4.5 wins

While I am a lukewarm believer in Robert Griffin’s redemption potential, this is one sorry overall roster. I’m not sure how they even win two games, let alone five. Take the under at -125.

- Denver Broncos, 9 wins

The defending champs lost both Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler. Paxton Lynch was my No. 1 QB in the draft, but it’s asking a lot of the rookie from Memphis to fill those considerable shoes so quickly. They also lost more talent from the middle of the outstanding defense than most people think, with Danny Trevathan and Malik Jackson. The beginning and ending quarters of their schedule appears brutal, too. If I had to wager my guess would be on the under, but I wouldn’t touch this Denver team with any confidence either way.

- Houston Texans, 8.5 wins

This one puzzles me. Houston significantly upgraded their offensive weaponry, and that includes Brock Osweiler at quarterback even as relatively unproven as he might be. The defense brings back almost all its key components, notably J.J. Watt but also the other top nine tacklers from last year. Oh yeah, they also added what looks like a major upgrade at center in second-round pick Nick Martin. An up-and-down schedule presents challenges, but it’s manageable as long as Osweiler is better than Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett. I’ll take that bet and confidently state they win at least as many games (9) as last year.

- Indianapolis Colts, 9.5 wins

The books are banking that you still are buying sky high on Andrew Luck. Make them pay for catering to the foolish fanboys. Luck could have his best season and still not get this middling collection of talent to .500. This might be the worst defense in the NFL. Take the -130 and the under.

- Jacksonville Jaguars, 7.5 wins

We’ve heard for years about how Gus Bradley is turning things around. Yet once again the Jags are coming off a season where they earned a top-5 overall pick. Oh yeah, that pick (Jalen Ramsey) might not play. Their second-round pick (Myles Jack) might not either, and last year’s top pick (Dante Fowler) has also yet to play. I’ll need to see it before I believe this team wins more than 6 games. 7.5 seems wildly optimistic. Load up on the under at +120.

- Kansas City Chiefs, 9.5 wins

Andy Reid’s Chiefs went from an abysmal 1-5 start to the playoffs, ripping off 10 wins in a row to complete the improbable climb. They even won a playoff game, blowing out the Texans. So why does the 9.5 seem high to me even though the same basic core of starters returns? Consider it a combination of not being a believer in Alex Smith and the shallow KC receiving corps and a decided lack of depth on most of the defense. Then again, their schedule is chock full of teams which struggle to rush the passer, save the games against teams with great pass rushes. Can you see the indifference here? I went through the schedule four times and came up with between 8 and 10 wins every time. This would be a good one to buy a half-point and raise to 10, and then take the under.

- Miami Dolphins, 7 wins

There are scads of moving parts here. If they all move in the same direction, this team should win 10 games. But that means the offensive line congeals quickly, the running game and receiving/TE questions all get answered affirmatively, and Mario Williams and Ndamukong Suh both turn in superlative seasons on the defensive front. All could happen. So could ongoing woes all over the place, including the begrudging realization Ryan Tannehill has already maxed out. Somehow I think they get to eight wins, but I could just as easily see 6-10. Caveat bettor.

- New England Patriots, 10.5 wins

With all the ongoing DeflateGate ridiculousness, it’s hard to make an accurate prediction. Will Tom Brady play all 16? How motivated will they be in what appears once again to be a runaway division title they have clinched by Thanksgiving? I’m taking the over, but this is another where the pay line is the same in both directions. That’s a red octagon on the way to the betting window.

- New York Jets, 8 wins

A team with major uncertainty at quarterback and a defensive-oriented coaching staff and mindset faces six of its first nine games on the road. The offensive line got worse with D’Brickashaw Ferguson’s abrupt retirement. The receiving corps is strong and I do like Matt Forte, but not that much. One of my general rules of thumb is the bookies inflate all New York teams at least 10% in preseason win totals. If Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t back, they inflated it by about 50% here. I love the under.

- Oakland Raiders, 8.5 wins

Oakland might be a media darling, but be careful here. These Raiders only won seven last year despite a highly favorable schedule. I really like the young talent, but will continuity equate to two extra wins? Can I really trust Jack Del Rio as head coach that much? Not enough to bet on it, but this should be a 10-win team. Should be.

- Pittsburgh Steelers, 10.5 wins

Pittsburgh won 10 games last year despite Landry Jones starting two games and Mike Vick starting three in place of an injured Ben Roethlisberger. Le'Veon Bell is back after missing 10 games, and he’s arguably the best RB in the AFC. The defense still has some weak points, but recent draft picks from the last 2-3 years can only help as they mature. The Steelers are always prone to a clunker game or three, however. Tough call but the heart and the brain both say “over” at -130.

- San Diego Chargers, 7 wins

The Chargers remind me some of the Dolphins; if the moving parts all come together this team could surprise and make the playoffs, but there are just so many moving variables. Chief among those are the offensive line, which was atrocious last year, and an aging Philip Rivers behind it with serious questions about the running back corps, too. Tough to have any confidence in the over, especially with an AFC West schedule where they don’t figure to be favored in any game, even at home.

- Tennessee Titans, 5.5 wins

The NFL’s worst team last year should be better, notably in running the ball with additions Demarco Murray, Derrick Henry and with Jack Conklin up front. That will help Marcus Mariota, who impressed despite not having great numbers as a rookie QB. Yet they did little to address the bottom-5 defense, and the coaching staff doesn’t bring a lot of successful experience to lean upon as they open against a cadre of strong defenses. They might not lose from Week 5 thru Week 9, but those might be the only five wins they get. Very hard to see this group nailing the over unless they get a bunch of career years from unexpected sources on defense.