Last Week: 10-4, continuing the sunny forecast string. Double figures in five of the six weeks! 61-29 on the season.

There are some better matchups this week, even with three of the remaining unbeaten (Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver) all idle on bye weeks. Five games feature road favorites, and there are no double-digit spreads. 

Thursday Night

- Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (+5.5): San Francisco took advantage of numerous Baltimore mistakes last week to notch its second win. Form Joe Flacco’s meandering arm punt to the Ravens defense just forgetting to cover receiver numerous times, it was more of Baltimore beating itself than any great statement by the 49ers.

They get a chance to make a statement here, hosting the reeling Seahawks. Both teams are 2-4, a stark descent from the recent battles between these NFC West rivals which dripped with playoff implications. Although this game does serve the purpose of all but eliminating the loser from any realistic playoff hopes this season.

It’s for that reason I favor the visitors from the north. I think they’ll get their shaky secondary in order, at least enough to contain Colin Kaepernick. It doesn’t help San Francisco that both Carlos Hyde and Anquan Boldin are questionable on short rest. I also think Russell Wilson will find opportunities against the 49ers scattershot defensive backfield. The Seahawks know how to play with controlled desperation; it’s Pete Carroll at his best. Jim Tomsula and his 49ers? Yeah, not so much…

Seahawks 27, 49ers 16 

Sunday Best

- New York Jets at New England Patriots (-9.5): The Jets are flying high, riding the league’s top scoring defense into Foxboro for a shot at first place in the AFC East. New York is humming along nicely under first-year coach Todd Bowles and his creative, smart defense. They’re getting enough good decisions from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and a strong running game to pose a serious threat to New England’s amorphous defense.

This leads to a pretty significant matchup edge for the Jets…

 

All signs point to New York having a great chance to shake up the AFC and stake its own claim to valid contender. With the Patriots coming home on a shorter week after the emotional Sunday night grudge match in Indianapolis, there is a chance the New England game prep won’t be as tight as usual against an opponent which has changed quite a bit since their last meeting.

It’s situations like this where I trust in Bill Belichick, for my money the best head coach of the Super Bowl era. Clearly the sports books agree; the line of 9.5 seems indicative of a coaching gulf more than a talent gulf. Bowles is a smart hire and I think he’s going to have a lot of success in New York, but this is his first time matching wits with Master Hoodie and there is major significance on the line. The line seems awfully high given the Jets legit defense, but I really like the Patriots to prevail.

Patriots 23, Jets 20 

- Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-2.5): The only matchup of two first-place teams happens in Charlotte.

I could give you several reasons why I believe the Panthers will win…

- Better QB play, as Cam Newton keeps making plays while Eagles coach Chip Kelly has to publicly announce he’s not benching error-prone Sam Bradford

- Carolina’s strong up-the-gut defense and speedy linebackers, well-equipped to manage Philly’s horizontal offensive attack

- The Panther' pass rush against Philly’s depleted (by choice) offensive line and the resulting pressure on Bradford

- The home team showed real gumption in coming back from a big deficit on the road against the defending NFC Champs last week

Having said all that, I think the Eagles will soar above the Panthers’ reach in this one. I love the way the Philly defense is coming together. Fletcher Cox, Connor Barwin, Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, they’re all working as a cohesive unit up front and solid against both the run and pass. Malcolm Jenkins is having a Pro Bowl worthy year at safety, and running mate Walter Thurmond isn’t far behind him. As long as Bradford doesn’t lay an egg--and he might--I like the visitors to hang the first loss on Carolina.

Eagles 20, Panthers 17

Sunday Rest

- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+2.5): A rematch in Detroit of a Week 2 game where Adrian Peterson ran wild in Minnesota’s 26-16 win. The Vikings totaled 199 yards on the ground, the Lions turned the ball over three times and saw 8 of its 19 carries gain negative yardage.

That loss led to a schematic change on Detroit’s defense. The Lions were largely playing with no nose tackle, no defense for the A-gap run. Even without Tyrunn Walker and Haloti Ngata manning the middle, Detroit’s run defense has perked up. Linebacker Josh Bynes has provided an unexpected lift. The numbers are skewed somewhat by a humiliating blowout loss to Arizona, but the Lions run D is indeed playing better.

What does that mean? It means the Lions' defense is going to force Teddy Bridgewater to beat them. And that’s a problem for the Vikings, because the second-year QB is incredibly gun shy. He ranks near the bottom in air yards per attempt, or the average distance per throw stripping away the yards after catch. His figure keeps doing down, too. Matthew Stafford is even lower rated in air yards, but last week marked a distinct uptick. Stafford targeted Calvin Johnson & friends 20 or more yards down the field almost as often in the win over Chicago as he had in the prior three weeks. Johnson won NFC Offensive Player of the Week as a result. He caught 10 passes in the last meeting.

I think the offensive adjustment sticks, at least somewhat. And even though the Lions will at times trot out a defensive line of Andre Fluellen, Ismaily Kitchen and Devin Taylor with Ziggy Ansah, I think they’ll slow down Peterson enough to allow the Lions to pull of the home upset.

Lions 27, Vikings 20

- Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) in London: Good Sunday morning America! Wake up at 9:30 ET and catch our latest import to the United Kingdom, a dog of a football game between a team stuck in neutral and a “home” team with at least one flat tire and the low gas light is on.

London games have proven something of a last stand for unsuccessful coaches. Dennis Allen and Joe Philbin were both fired after losses in Wembley Stadium, the latter just two weeks ago when the Dolphins laid an egg. Mike Smith’s Falcons fate was sealed with a humiliating loss last year. Now it’s Gus Bradley’s turn to tempt fate as his 1-5 Jaguars try to show any sign of hope. It won’t be easy for Jacksonville against a swift Buffalo defense, and the Bills appear to catch a break with QB Tyrod Taylor apparently well enough to play. Bradley even got the dreaded vote of confidence from ownership, a death knell if ever there was one.

I suspect the Bills will cruise out to a 20-6 halftime lead, one of those touchdowns coming on either special teams or defense. They will stretch the lead to 27-9 before Blake Bortles rallies in desperation/garbage time, as is Jaguar custom. It will make the final score, and Bradley’s Jaguars, appear much closer than the actual reality.

Bills 30, Jaguars 25 

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5): Kansas City fans are somewhere between resigned apathy and downright depression over how this season has played out. Playoff visions have crashed into a 1-5 start, and without star RB Jamaal Charles there is very little reason for any optimism the offense will perk up. This game could be even worse, as top wideout Jeremy Maclin has missed practice this week with concussion issues.

It will be interesting to see how the Chiefs respond in this one. Pittsburgh is going with QB Landry Jones, who will make his first career start after outshining a hobbled Mike Vick last week. Jones was notable at Oklahoma for looking just good enough to merit NFL interest but then crashing and burning with bad decisions or lightweight throws. It never helped that the Sooners yanked him in the red zone in deference to the dual-threat Blake Bell, aka the Belldozer. Bell is now a tight end for the 49ers, which tells you about how highly the Sooners coaching staff thought of Jones’ passing ability.

I think Jones will struggle under the weight of his first start. Pittsburgh lost left tackle Kelvin Beachum for the year, and that won’t help keep the pressure off. The one thing the Chiefs still do well is generate QB pressure. I like rookie CB Marcus Peters to have a big game, perhaps even scoring a touchdown, and the Chiefs to salvage a little dignity on the season.

Chiefs 26, Steelers 20

- Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams (-5.5): It’s hard to see the Browns' porous run defense slowing down Todd Gurley and the Rams rushing attack. The Browns surrender a full five yards per carry, and opponents are aware: the Browns face an average of 30 rushes per game, third-most in the league. The Rams ran the ball 36 times in their last game, and their 4.8 yards per carry is tied for the league lead with Seattle. Gurley is rested, the Browns are not. Keep it simple, folks…

Rams 28, Browns 17

- Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans (+4.5): Sending get well wishes to Titans center Brian Schwenke, who was placed on IR this week after suffering a gruesome leg injury in Tennessee’s loss to Miami last week. Schwenke is a decent young talent but a really good guy and I hope he makes it back to full speed next season.

His loss really hurts the Titans, who have had offensive line issues all year despite devoting significant resources up front recently. Rookie right tackle Jeremiah Poutasi is an unmitigated disaster in pass protection. Right guard is a black hole. Now center is a problem, too. That’s a tough break (no pun intended) for rookie QB Marcus Mariota, who has never developed a good feel for handling pressure from his right, not even during his illustrious Oregon days. Go back and watch the games he lost for the Ducks; those teams tended to bring heat from the right and force him to his left.

Atlanta doesn’t have a great pass rush, but they do mix things up enough to keep the rookie off kilter. Tennessee can try to run the ball, but that’s not something they did well even with Schwenke in the lineup. Bad matchup for the home team.

Falcons 27, Titans 13 

- Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-4.5): Miami won Dan Campbell’s debut as coach, and the intense interim head man probably celebrated with some Metallica. Campbell is notable for his devotion to America’s greatest band. Here is a suggested playlist of Metallica tunes to motivate the Dolphins for a game they should win if they can handle breakout Texans WR Nuk Hopkins:

Nothing Else Matters

Master of Puppets

One

Seek and Destroy

Wrap it up with the intro to Fuel,

Give me fuel give me fire give me that which I desire!

Dolphins 29, Texans 16 

- New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5): I would be a lot more confident in New Orleans if I had any faith in its kicking game. However, the Saints swapped out kickers, dumping Zach Hocker for Kai Forbath. The new kicker was Washington’s old kicker before getting axed after missing a field goal in the opener. That doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

The Colts are onto something with the faster passing game, getting the ball out from the quarterback quicker to help mitigate their truly dreadful pass protection. The Saints pass defense is cheesy, stinking of the Swiss variety. Only Cleveland allows more yards per completion, and Rob Ryan’s defense ranks 26th in completion percentage, 30th in QB rating allowed.

Put those two factors together and it’s real hard to make a case for the upset. I think a blowout is more likely.

Colts 33, Saints 20 

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington (-3.5): This game will be decided by the number of interceptions Kirk Cousins throws as Washington’s QB. When Cousins throws two or more INTs, he is 0-10 as a starter. That includes a 0-4 record this season, and he’s one of only two QBs (Sam Bradford is the other) to have at least four games with multiple INTs this year.

The flip side is that Cousins is 2-0 this year when he doesn’t throw the ball to the other team. He’s pretty effective when he can avoid the catastrophic turnovers. Tampa Bay has just 3 INTs on the season, so there is hope for Cousins to have a clean slate. He’ll have to handle the win a little better, as Head Coach Jay Gruden blamed last week’s gaffes on the breeze instead of his quarterback. This week’s forecast: 68 degrees, light morning showers, wind 5-8 MPH. Looks good for a Washington win.

Ethnic Slurs 24, Buccaneers 21

- Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-4.5): I’m not a fantasy football guru, not by any means. I don’t play DFS and I don’t win season leagues very often. So when I dole out fantasy advice, take it for what it is.

I love Latavius Murray in this matchup. San Diego has the worst run defense in the league. Murray has run with purpose all season, and Oakland was off last week. He’s fresh and ready to carve apart a Chargers D which gives up 5.4 yards per carry. They’ve given up at least 100 yards rushing in five of their six contests, and the one they didn’t was against Detroit’s league-worst rushing attack.

I think Murray gets 22 carries for 126 yards and 2 TDs in this one. And the Raiders will need every single inch. If you watch this game, pay attention to how many times a potential move to Los Angeles gets mentioned. The odds are very high at least one of these teams will be in LA by 2017.

Chargers 23, Raiders 20 

- Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-4.5): The Giants found a way to lose the first meeting. This time around the Cowboys are missing Romo and Bryant. I like how the New York offensive line is congealing, and Dallas has had issues covering on the back end when the pass rush isn’t getting home. I suspect Eli Manning will make one catastrophic mistake, probably directed at Larry Donnell and his rather lacking football instincts, and that will keep the Cowboys close enough to draw out the outcome here. But I’ll be very surprised if Dallas actually wins, even though they’re coming off a bye week and the Giants get a short week coming off a Monday Night loss. Fix that, schedule makers!

Giants 31, Cowboys 23

Monday

- Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals (-7.5): I have almost no doubt the Cardinals will triumph at home. Carson Palmer will eat up the leaky Ravens secondary like my 7-year-old daughter devouring a packet of Skittles in about 10 seconds.

The bigger question is, will I have any reason to stay up past halftime? I gave up on last week’s Philly romp at intermission, and I am grateful for the extra sleep in lieu of a noncompetitive half of NFL action. My wife, who normally goes to bed about 9:30 and didn’t appreciate my overly fatigued snoring bout, is hoping the game this week holds enough drama to keep me awake. Sorry baby, I wouldn’t bet on it. This one has blowout snoozer written all over it.

Cardinals 39, Ravens 17