Last Week: 13-3. Happy days are here again! 30-18 on the season after wiping away the stain of a terrible Week 2 forecast.

This week brings a couple of wrinkles to the NFL schedule. First, bye weeks begin. It’s at least 3 weeks too early to start the byes, but I don’t want to drive off that tangential cliff yet again. Second, the overseas experiment kicks off for the season with a Sunday morning game in London. That means you can watch football on Sunday from 9:30 AM EST to nearly midnight with only a short 30 or so minute break before the night game kicks off.

Thursday Night

- Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5): Just how much does Ben Roethlisberger mean to the Steelers? How about the fact they’re underdogs at home to the winless Ravens.

I think this is a chance to exploit some perceptions. The bookies still hold a lot of faith that the Ravens are a lot better than the 0-3 record says they are. I agree, but only to a point. Their offensive line is arguably the worst in football. Their secondary is down near the very bottom too.

Yet this is one of the few intense rivalries where you really can throw the standings and statistics out the proverbial window. The Ravens are desperate, as a loss here could put them four full games and a tie-breaker behind the AFC North leading Bengals. As I forecasted the Ravens to make it to the playoffs in the preseason, I just can’t fathom them falling so far behind so quickly. There is still a lot of talent in Baltimore, and they will be primed and ready for the wounded Steelers. It will take much more responsible play on both sides of the ball. I think we’ll see that.

I also think we’ll see the limitations of Mike Vick operating Pittsburgh’s offense. I don’t foresee a train wreck like some do, but his chronic issues with accuracy and ball security are a legit downer on the Steelers offensive attack. Keep in mind the Steelers are 1-5 versus the Ravens without Roethlisberger and 8-2 with his replacements against everyone else.

Ravens 24, Steelers 20

Sunday

- Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5): The Panthers' defense is one of the most underrated entities in the NFL right now. They’re very fast in the back seven, and the front is quite stout against the run. Carolina’s defense presents a huge challenge for Jameis Winston, who is doing a lot of good things over his NFL debut but also has more than enough plays each week to remind you he’s a rookie.

I see this game coming down to one final drive. Jameis and the Bucs trailing by four with about three minutes left on the clock. Winston makes a couple of nice early completions, and Mike Evans or Doug Martin sheds a tackle to get Tampa Bay into striking range. Then the Panthers defensive line asserts itself and exploits one of the two fledgling rookies on the Tampa OL, Ali Marpet or (more likely) Donovan Smith. Jameis takes a sack, throws away the next pass and then throws a game-losing INT on 3rd and 17, perhaps another leaping grab from underrated CB Josh Norman. Close but no cigar for Winston, but he’ll have his time to smoke soon.

Panthers 21, Buccaneers 17 

- St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5): The Cardinals top our Trench Counter rankings here, and fresh off a 47-7 shellacking of the rival 49ers, it’s easy to see why. Carson Palmer & Co. are cruising.

I think the Cards face some adversity in this one. The Rams' defensive line is outstanding, and Aaron Donald up the gut can ruin the best-laid offensive plans. It forces opposing offenses to adjust how they play, which leads to a very strange statistical oddity…

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Odd stat: The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rams?src=hash">#Rams</a> are allowing a completion % of 81.6. Dead last. But avg. yards per completion is 7.6, first overall.</p>&mdash; Jeff Risdon (@JeffRisdon) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffRisdon/status/649223045807259648">September 30, 2015</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

What does that mean? It indicates teams are getting the ball out quickly to blunt Donald’s impact, and the Rams rely heavily on the second level of the defense making quick, strong tackles. Offenses with good weapons can exploit this strategy by being smart and patient, and even one missed tackle can doom the entire game for the low-scoring Rams. The St. Louis offense has produced just four offensive TDs in three games.

St. Louis always plays significantly better against fellow NFC West foes and that gives them a chance. I’m also uneasy about trusting untested Cardinals kicker Chandler Catanzaro, who has just two FG attempts in three games. But I cannot see St. Louis outscoring an efficient Arizona offense, not without a defensive or special teams TD or two.

Cardinals 21, Rams 16

- Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears (+2.5): Will the Bears win a game? This is an increasingly viable question as the new regime begins to openly auction off parts. Jared Allen and Jon Bostic were both traded on Monday for pennies on the dollar. There are loud rumors from credible sources that Matt Forte, Will Sutton and Willie Young are all potentially on the way out.

In my preseason tallying of potential wins, I had three for Chicago. This game was one of them, but that was before Jay Cutler got hurt and the team finally admitted publicly (with the trades) it knows it has no prayer to compete in 2015. The Raiders are an iffy bet on the road, but I really like their aggressive defense to give Jimmy Clausen and a very bad offensive line fits. Watch at your peril.

Raiders 29, Bears 20

- New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (+2.5) in London: I’ll keep this one simple, and you should too. Miami’s underwhelming, uncreative, sputtering offense against New York’s aggressive, effective defense means major problems for the Dolphins. A shutout would not surprise me, especially not in the London locale which always seems to produce lousy offensive games.

Jets 13, Dolphins 3

- Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5): I’ve been very impressed with the Falcons. Most folks are focusing on the breakout offensive performances of Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, but it’s the new-look defense that has me encouraged the 3-0 start is no fluke. Head Coach Dan Quinn imported the base defensive system and mindset from his Seattle days, and it has been quite effective at putting more pressure on the offense. The yards per game is down almost 10%, the scoring average down a field goal. It’s modest improvement, but it pairs with the offensive improvement to make this a much more rounded, formidable team.

Houston is a tough team to get a pulse on right now. Such is the case with an inexperienced quarterback, an inconsistent line and a changing of the guard at both RB and WR. Getting top runner Arian Foster back this week--maybe--could be a real boon. If Ryan Mallett, the aforementioned QB, gets good protection and the offensive line creates for the running attack, Houston can pull it off. But I just can’t trust Mallett at this point. I still prefer him to Brian Hoyer, however.

Falcons 30, Texans 17 

- New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-5.5): There are a lot of reasons to like the Giants chances. Really. But I just cannot get past New York’s issues with mobile, dual-threat quarterbacks. Or the unstable Giants offensive line against Buffalo’s formidable defensive front. If you’re feeling saucy, I would encourage you to strongly consider the Giants with the points here. I give them a 48% chance of winning outright. But the clearer forecast is for Buffalo at home.

Bills 19, Giants 17 

- Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5): It was nice to see Chiefs QB Alex Smith finally complete a touchdown pass to a wide receiver for the first time in 21 months in Monday night’s loss to Green Bay. Hopefully it encourages Smith to try and find Jeremy Maclin down the field.

The Chiefs will need it to overcome a Bengals team which is firing on all cylinders. Cincinnati is undefeated behind strong play from Andy Dalton, who looks more confident and in control of the offense. Their defense is deep and one of the most cohesive groups in the league; much of the talent has played with one another for several years, and they know how to play off of, and next to one another. It makes them less prone to breakdowns and fosters more creativity and unity. Those are not terms anyone would use to describe the Chiefs offense.

Bengals 28, Chiefs 22

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5): The poor Jaguars go from facing New England to Indianapolis, just as Andrew Luck appears to finally have extricated his football head out of his rectum. First place in the AFC South is on the line, and if you think the team with the highest preseason win total odds falls to the team with the 3rd lowest with such bragging rights on the line, good luck with that. Good week for the struggling Colts to get healthy. If they don’t, their problems are far deeper than the rift between Head Coach Chuck Pagano and GM Ryan Grigson.

Colts 37, Jaguars 24

- Philadelphia Eagles at Washington (+3.5): I’ll keep this one brief. I think the Eagles figured a lot out in beating the Jets. I think Kirk Cousins and his flippant disregard for ball security is a major problem for Washington’s offense. I do like the Washington speed on defense to neutralize the Philly attack, but they’re not outscoring the Eagles unless they can run for over 150 yards and Cousins keeps the turnover slate clean.

Eagles 20, Ethnic Slurs 17 

- Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers (-7.5): The Chargers have played two good quarters of football in dropping two of the first three games. The surge in the second half in the opener hosting Detroit was enough to overcome the mistake-prone Lions, but beyond that these Chargers have looked sloppy. Their offensive line is in shambles, and this has led to serious issues for Phillip Rivers and the running game behind him.

San Diego is lucky in drawing Cleveland, another team with myriad issues. The Browns don’t run the ball well. They don’t stop the run well. The player widely perceived to be the best on the defense, CB Joe Haden, is getting badly outplayed by reserves like Pierre Desir. There are reports of a schism in the locker room, though many Browns have vehemently denied it. Either way, the offense is a rudderless ship and the defense doesn’t always have enough fingers to put in the dykes. They got blown away by Oakland, completely unable to stop Amari Cooper. Say hello to Keenan Allen, which is good news for my fantasy team. Bad news for the Browns, however…

Chargers 31, Browns 21

- Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-6.5): This is the only game on the docket which features two teams with winning records. Even so, it also appears to be one of the bigger mismatches on the slate. Denver’s top-ranked defense is playing so well, creating constant pressure and forcing turnovers. No team does better at getting the ball back on third down, getting off the field on more than 80% of the time. Minnesota ranks 26th on third down offense, and they hold that same low ranking on yards per pass attempt. If Teddy Bridgewater can’t stretch the defense or exploit when Denver brings safety TJ Ward in front of the linebackers to kill the run, the Vikings don’t have a prayer in Denver.

Minnesota’s defense does give them a chance. They can generate pressure and they generally tackle well. If they can force a couple of mistakes and keep the Broncos run game (2.6 yards per carry, dead last) struggling, this could be a big upset. Yet I like the home field advantage. I also like Denver’s Brandon McManus a lot more than Blair Walsh for the Vikings if it comes down to a kicking battle. I don’t think it will, however.

Broncos 24, Vikings 10

- Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (+9.5): The 49ers' defense, the unquestioned strength of the team, is on pace to have the 2nd worst yards per play allowed in the last ten seasons. Obviously the small sample size of just three games will normalize over the course of the season…but playing Green Bay isn’t likely to help. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense are playing as efficiently and effectively as any unit ever has. Eminently moveable object trying to stop the irresistible force. The laws of physics are just not favoring the home team. I’m not going to argue with Isaac Newton or Albert Einstein, my general contempt with physics otherwise excepted.

Packers 36, 49ers 16

- Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (-4.5): A game billed in the preseason as Tony Romo vs. Drew Brees is instead Brandon Weeden vs. Luke McCown. That’s akin to going to a Broadway spectacle and getting a local high school production of the same show instead. I would like Dallas to pull it off if I trusted their pass rush, but they rank near the bottom in sack percentage and pressures generated. McCown has enough wherewithal to matriculate the Saints to a few scores at home when he’s got time, and he’ll have it here. Cue the Weeden soul-crushing error down the stretch to cement New Orleans’ first win of the season.

Saints 23, Cowboys 20 

Monday Night

- Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5): Do I really have to be subjected to this? I’m a longtime Lions fan who brimmed with legitimate optimism heading into the season. I thought this was a year where my beloved team could realistically win a playoff game.

Three weeks in, they’re still trying to win a regular season game. They’re tasked with the challenge against the defending NFC champs, who are similarly desperate at 1-2. Detroit’s offense is a predictable, completely uninspiring waste of considerable talent thus far. Calvin Johnson, still a top 5 wideout, has seen exactly one pass longer than 20 yards. The right side of the offensive line is abysmal. Matthew Stafford has taken a beating but has also missed several opportunities. The defense allows far too many easy completions, though there was real progress against Denver last week in bottling up the run and taking advantage of a weak opposing O-line. That happens to be the Seahawks’ most glaring weakness too.

Can the Lions pull the upset? Sure. Here’s how:

- Play with more tempo and urgency on offense

- Run plays that put the skill position talent in position to make a play, instead of having the action dictated to them

- Get home with the pass rush on defense.

- Finish at least +1 in the turnover margin

- Win the field position and special teams battles

I think the Lions will accomplish a few of those. I really do. But all five? The odds are just as good that my ongoing efforts to toilet train my cat actually works.

Seahawks 24, Lions 16