The final NFL game until after Labor Day pits the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

This shapes up to be a fantastic contest, pitting the two best teams in the league. Seattle is the reigning champion, headed by the stingiest defense and the powerful rushing punch of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson. New England features Tom Brady and the league’s most potent scoring offense as well as a top 10 defense.

The tale of the relevant tape:

 

Yards Per Carry (Rank)

QB Rating

YPC Allowed

QB Rating Allowed

Turnover Margin

New England

3.9 (24th)

98.6 (5th)

4.1 (11th)

81.4 (7th)

+12 (2nd)

Seattle

5.2 (1st)

97.0 (7th)

3.6 (3rd)

         78.8 (4th)

 +9 (4th)

The most significant advantage is Seattle’s dominant run defense facing New England’s sporadically effective ground game. In fact, the Patriots running game is one of the biggest X factors.

Then again, it might also be irrelevant. The Patriots eviscerated the Colts in the AFC Championship game with 177 rushing yards, led by LeGarrette Blount’s 148 on 30 carries, three of which ended in the end zone. One week earlier the Patriots bombed the Ravens with exactly 14 yards on the ground, a game where they had more runs lose yards than gain them.

It’s in that great variability of attack where I find New England’s biggest asset. Seattle is excellent on both sides of the ball, but they’re also a team which relies heavily on execution more than strategy. The Patriots show a more varied attack from week to week or even half to half.

It takes malleability and deception to disrupt the stout, calculating Seahawks. And no team morphs into trickery and unpredictability more or better than the New England Patriots. I’m not just talking about the unconventional alignments they used to deceive the Ravens, either, though that sort of rulebook massaging is not insignificant.

I love the way New England mixes up the attack and isn’t afraid to use anyone on the roster. Seattle cannot focus on taking away any one player or prong of the attack. The Patriots don’t have a true No. 1 receiver for Richard Sherman to erase from the field. Heck, New England doesn’t really have a legit No. 2 receiver. They run Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell on intricate short hooks, slants and crosses that use the entire field, and all are basically interchangeable. Then there’s Gronk, a nightmare after the catch who also presents a mismatch no matter who covers him.

If the Seahawks use Kam Chancellor and K.J. Wright to nullify Gronk, the rest of the area between the hashes belongs to the other Pats receivers. Should Seattle crowd the rest of the Legion of Boom into that more condensed area, New England has no problem swinging passes to the RB du jour or a backup TE like Michael Hoomanawanui or James Develin, who scored a TD on such a play against Indy. Or they could get freaky and throw a touchdown to offensive tackle Nate Solder, which also happened versus the Colts.

It’s like the King of the Hill episode where Hank waxes eloquently on why Bobby being like mud is an advantage. No matter how much you try to attack or bother the mud, it’s still able to be mud. You can’t stop mud other than patiently waiting for it to dry back into dirt, but that’s not going to happen in 60 minutes of football.

 

Ah yes, King of the Hill. Home of the grandest example of the wacko conspiracy theorist, Dale Gribble. Between DeflateGate, Spygate and the cozy relationship of Pats owner Robert Kraft and Commissioner Roger Goodell, the Gribbles of the world no doubt think the Patriots are destined to win by some overarching grand cabal.

Personally I think it’s all bunk. The Spygate controversy is old history, and it’s ridiculous. The deflated balls fiasco is one of the most ignorant non-stories in any medium not involving a Kardashian. If you really think that had any impact on the outcome, or that the other 31 quarterbacks in the league don’t doctor their own footballs in bizarre ways to prep them for a game, you probably think Russian elections actually matter. I heard a great story during Senior Bowl week from a former NFL QB who laid out what he did to his game balls to get them ready. It involved a convection oven, urine, seltzer, dry ice and a wirehair brush he stole from a donkey at a county fair. I’m pretty sure none of that falls under the “normal wear and tear” description.

One of the points there is that the Patriots will not succumb to any Jedi mind tricks. I don’t think the Seahawks will either, as their Adderall issues keep their focus sharp. Oh yeah, did everyone forget they’ve been caught cheating too? Let’s see, six different players busted for performance enhancing drugs against slightly underinflated footballs: which do you provides more impact on an individual game outcome? Anyone testing BeastMode’s Skittles to see if maybe the candy coating tests positive for something else? Pete Carroll knows a little something about breaking the rules, too…

Consider the “cheating” aspects a wash. A completely irrelevant, pointless wash. If you’re more interested in that stuff than Xs and Os, stop watching football.

Seattle can certainly win with Xs and Os. They have the superior overall talent and have playmakers on offense, defense and even special teams. Russell Wilson’s improvisational ability thwarts all sorts of defensive approaches. I also like how Seattle stuck with the effective ground game even when seemingly dead and buried against Green Bay, clawing their way back into the game.

Yet Seattle won that game because Green Bay’s coaching staff made some of the worst decisions this side of Mike Tyson’s facial tattoo. Bill Belichick is not going to commit those gaffes.

If these teams played 100 times, I would bet they split 50/50. I think we’re going to see a low-scoring, hard-hitting game with more punts than scores. I think we see a defensive touchdown and a trick play on special teams.

I also think we see the Patriots capture Super Bowl XLIX.

New England 22, Seattle 20