Last Week: 12-4, a good Thanksgiving weekend all around. 125-67-1 on the season.

Gambling Update: Yeah, about that…I wagered 1500 Uzbek som across four games over the weekend. Every single one of those was a loser. Fortunately a recent hot streak had given me enough bankroll to keep my kneecaps intact, but it remains a harsh lesson that my gambling strategy just isn’t working out too well. 

Thursday Night

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars  (+3): This game serves as a reality check for the Case Keenum advocates in Houston. Many in my former domicile really like the UH Cougars product, but he’s yet to win a game this year. If he cannot lead the Texans to a win here, there’s really no question that he’s never going to be more than a backup. Methinks the locals love him because he’s not Matt Schaub. Well, indeed he is not. As much as Houston fans have completely turned on the deposed starter, he did lead the team to the playoffs two years in a row. Now you’re cheering for a backup playing out the string for a team that has lost 10 in a row.

The Jaguars have won three of the last four, somehow. They have yet to throw for 300 yards in a game, and they remain 32nd in both scoring offense and point differential. One of those wins came in Houston, holding the punchless Texans to 218 total yards. Houston played its best game of the year last week in nearly beating New England, but I’m not sure they have another effort like that in them. However, I think JJ Watt can win this game by himself. He might have to.

Texans 17, Jaguars 16 

Sunday Best

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5): Even though this game is a critical NFC South matchup between two Super Bowl hopefuls, the biggest key to this game is the Seattle Seahawks. Why? Well, consider that opponents who faced Seattle the week before have not won a single game this year.

You might recall Monday night, where the Seahawks absolutely destroyed the Saints 34-7. Now New Orleans has to travel back home on a short week, made shorter by their team plane being delayed out of Sea-Tac. The Seahawks are so physical that it lingers for teams. Now the Saints have an abbreviated recovery time to play another very physical team in Carolina.

I’m going to ride this angle all the way home. The Saints at home deserve to be favored, and I actually expect them to win. But I’m siding with the bizarre intangible.

Panthers 27, Saints 24

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5): The playoff implications are huge in this meeting of 7-5 teams. With a win, the Lions go a very long way towards wrapping up the first NFC North title in franchise history. Meanwhile, the Eagles are on the outside looking in right now. They are tied with the Cowboys atop the NFC East but Dallas holds the tiebreaker as of now, though those teams meet in Week 17 in what sure seems like a winner-take-all game. But the Eagles also can improve their Wild Card chances with a win.

I broke this game down for Bleacher Report, and in my extensive studying for this matchup I can honestly say this game is a tossup. I suspect that if these teams played 100 times they would split the wins at 50, I really do. Turnovers and red zone conversions figure to be the deciding factors, but those are darn near impossible to forecast. I lean towards the Eagles at home, in no small part because Detroit’s inconsistency scares the hell out of me.

Eagles 37, Lions 33 

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5): After taking down the mighty Saints, the Seahawks head south to try to wrap up the NFC West title. It will not be easy, as the Niners are playing better recently. 

The key to beating Seattle is to make them one dimensional on offense, and if the Niners can jam up Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin they have a chance. Russell Wilson continues to astonish with his ability to pull rabbits out of hats, but the San Francisco defense can snuff those bunnies. 

I think we're going to see the reigning NFC Champions show their cliched "heart of a champion." I think the Seahawks are the better overall team, but the best team doesn't always win. 

49ers 26, Seahawks 24

Sunday Rest

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5): Welcome to the Jungle, Andrew Luck. It’s not going to be fun and games for you, certainly not when the random accurate passes you actually throw bounce off Darrius Heyward-Bey or TY Hilton. But the bigger issue for Indy here is that they do not match up well with the Cincinnati defensive front. Even without Geno Atkins in the middle, the Bengals front seven remains formidable. The Colts OL is average on its best day, and the running game puts too much in Luck’s basket. There’s only so much he can do.

Bengals 24, Colts 17

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3): The NFL fined Steelers coach Mike Tomlin $100K for his (alleged) unintentional interference with Jacoby Jones’ kick return up the sideline in Pittsburgh’s Thanksgiving night loss. I think the NFL got this right, and it should be the end of the story. There is no need to dock the Steelers any draft picks. This error was on Tomlin and Tomlin alone. It’s not the team’s fault that he ignored the “get back” guy that every team employs to keep coaches and players from venturing too close to the field of play. It didn’t ultimately impact the outcome of the game. Ball don’t lie, and the Steelers lost. That and the monetary fine on Tomlin is enough punishment.

Steelers 23, Dolphins 10 for 500 som

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-10): Ah yes, the whole “Belichick in Cleveland” era revisited. Those were some good times. Metcalf up the middle. Dumping local legend Bernie Kosar and his “diminishing skills” for Vinny Testaverde. Kicking a late field goal against Miami to close the gap to two touchdowns, instead of going for the touchdown to close it to a touchdown and a field goal. Trumpeting Touchdown Tommy Vardell as a top 10 pick, and then giving him the ball about six times a game.

One of the forgotten figments of that time is that Cleveland’s defensive coordinator for some of Belichick’s tenure was none other than Nick Saban. The best coach in the NFL over the last 15 years had the best college coach of the last 25 years on the staff and yet the Browns still struggled to four losing seasons in five years.

Patriots 21, Browns 13

Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5): Just when everyone thought the Bucs were on the rise, they get unceremoniously thumped by the Panthers. Just when everyone thought the Bill might have some playoff vitality, they get trumped by the 2-9 Falcons in front of a half-filled stadium in Toronto. Tis better to lose to a good NFC South team than a bad one. Also, look for a huge day from Gerald McCoy rushing the passer between the tackles for Tampa.

Buccaneers 27, Bills 17 for 250 som

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets (-2.5): Why is it that these teams seemingly meet every season? I realize this is a perceived sexy matchup because of the legendary “Heidi” game. Here’s another matchup that was once incredibly sexy--Carrie Fisher and Mark Hamill. The ‘70s seem so very long ago…

Raiders 16, Jets 12

Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (+3.5): This game will be a great litmus test for the Chiefs. They’ve lost three in a row since their 9-0 start, and they have to hit the road. They should beat up the Ethnic Slurs, but their defense has got to play better than it has recently.

I do think the Kansas City offense will find more success than they have in the losing streak. Washington’s defense, while improving, is still closer to the fire hydrant than the pit bull. If Andy Reid cannot guide his team past what appears to be a vastly inferior opponent, it is certain that the Chiefs peaked early. They’ll still make the playoffs even with a loss here, but if they can’t win in Washington, there’s no way the Chiefs can win a game in January.

Chiefs 24, Ethnic Slurs 20

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5): Do not sleep on the Minnesota Vikings in this one! They are playing well lately, going 2-1-1 in the last month. The Minnesota offense appears best in the hands of Matt Cassel, who will start in Baltimore. Adrian Peterson is still awesome and amazingly looks fresh this late in the season.

The Ravens are also playing their best football, however, having won three of four to vault themselves into the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. Their offense has been freakishly consistent; in the last three weeks they have gained 317, 312 and 311 yards. The Vikings are surrendering 433 yards per game over the same time, and they give up the big plays that Baltimore thrives on in the passing game.

Ravens 30, Vikings 24

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7): This one is real simple. If Aaron Rodgers is not playing, and all the signs are pointing to him missing another week with his broken collarbone, the Green Bay Packers are not seven points better than anyone. Not even the downtrodden Falcons, who strangely are getting healthier as Sean Weatherspoon, Steven Jackson and Roddy White all look closer to 100 percent than at any point so far. The cold weather is probably enough to allow the Packers to squeak by, but it’s not a given.

As for the issue of whether the Packers should shut Rodgers down for the season, I say heck no! To quote Herm Edwards from before we all realized he’s a slogan-shouting lunatic, “You play to win the game”. Considering Green Bay hasn’t won without Rodgers, it’s pretty clear they’re not playing to win games if they sideline him after he’s ready to return. Collarbones are six week injuries, always have been and always will be. This is the last week he should miss, Green Bay fans. Keep your fingers crossed that the team around him plays better than they did against Detroit.

Packers 23, Falcons 21 for 250 som

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-13): This game is a stinker, so I’ll talk instead about something else that appears to be an impending stinker. "Anchorman 2". No movie that tries this hard to promote itself has any chance of being good. I thought the first Anchorman tried way too hard and is terribly overrated. The contrived plot--if you can discern an actual plot--and the egregious overacting washed out the handful of humorous moments. I’ll admit that some of Ron Burgundy’s prodigious promotional spots are funny, but why pay to watch the movie when you’ve already seen Will Ferrell at his best? Burgundy’s spontaneity is his best quality, but that will be lost in what figures to be an overwritten, overwrought script. At the minimum, save it for home viewing instead of forking out $12 to see it in a crowded theater three months after the promotions began.

Broncos 38, Titans 23

New York Giants at San Diego Chargers (-3): A savvy reader (Hi Jacob!) emailed me to point out that I’m now 2-10 in picking Chargers games this year. I don’t have the time to verify that inglorious statistic, but I don’t doubt it; these Chargers have me completely flummoxed. So in that vein, I’m making this pick as a contrarian. My initial inclination for this game was that the Giants passing offense will overwhelm San Diego’s leaky pass defense, and Andre Brown would put up more yards on the ground than the Danny Woodhead/Ryan Mathews duo. In my mind, New York wins 28-20.

Chargers 28, Giants 20

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-6): This is an under-the-radar matchup that deserves more prominence. The Cardinals remain very much alive in the NFC playoff race even after the tough loss to Philadelphia, and their defense at home is very tough. In the last four home games, the Cardinals have given up an average of 277 yards and have forced 8 turnovers.

On the flip side, the St. Louis pass rush is outstanding and the Cardinals offensive line, not so much. Carson Palmer is not nearly as effective when under pressure, and he figures to have Robert Quinn and Chris Long in his face a lot. The problem for the Rams is that the vaunted corner duo of Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins is not playing well this year. They seem to alternate good games between them, but the guy on the bad week is often really bad. I like the emergence of Michael Floyd opposite Larry Fitzgerald to exploit the one having a bad game. I do think the Rams get a defensive score in this one, but I also think the Cardinals defense can hold on just enough to secure the win.

Cardinals 24, Rams 21 for 250 som 

Monday Night

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1): Three reasons I like the Cowboys to win on the road:

1. Getting Sean Lee back in the middle of the defense is huge. He’s one of the best inside backers in the game, and his ability in coverage helps take away the middle of the field.

2. The Bears offensive line is declining week by week. Even though the Dallas front four isn’t great as a whole, one quarter of that front is Demarcus Ware. That’s a problem.

3. There is no way on God’s green Earth that Chris Conte and Major Wright, the Chicago safeties, have any prayer of handling Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Demarco Murray.

Cowboys 33, Bears 27 

Betting recap:

Pittsburgh -3 for 500

Atlanta +7 for 250

Tampa Bay -2.5 for 250

St. Louis +6 for 250 

College Games

This is championship weekend in college football, with a great slate of games to watch. They will be heavily represented in this week’s $.10.

MAC Championship: Northern Illinois 30, Bowling Green 27

B1G Championship: Michigan State 20, Ohio State 17

Pac-12 Championship: Arizona State 24, Stanford 21

SEC Championship: Missouri 32, Auburn 20

CUSA Championship: Rice 33, Marshall 28

ACC Championship: Florida State 30, Duke 10