With the draft right around the corner, it’s time once again for the annual draft pick boom and bust forecast. Which highly drafted players will need bras for being giant busts? Which later round players will explode like dynamite in the NFL?

This year’s compilation is the most difficult year, just as this is the most difficult year to accurately concoct a mock draft. It’s hard to come up with five players that are surefire first round picks that I believe are going to flat-out stink, so this year’s Bras list features players that I think will disappoint early more than bomb quickly out of the league. 

Busts

Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia--Jones was the easiest pick for either list this year. I have never been high on Jones despite his gaudy sack and tackle for loss numbers at Georgia. Aside from the concerns over his spinal stenosis condition, I just didn’t see a great football player. Every big play he racked up was balanced by one where he took himself out of position, or got locked up by a marginal block. The fact he played on a defense that will have at least eight players drafted this year brings some context to his accomplishments. So when he had one of the worst Combine workout experiences of any player in years, the bust status was cemented in my mind. Jones doesn’t even come close to the minimum athletic metrics which many teams hold for the position. His dynamic explosion and speed numbers were lower than many linemen; his broad jump and vertical leap are lower than my own, and I’m a 40-year old white guy with chronic toe problems. He’s a linebacker who is a full half-second slower than most running backs and doesn’t have the explosive athleticism to quickly get into position or recover. At least Aaron Maybin and Jerry Hughes, two past alumni of this inglorious list that were also easy choices, were fast.

Lane Johnson, T, Oklahoma--Sticking Lane Johnson with the “bust” label is too harsh, because I do think he has the potential to become a capable NFL player. But in terms of the way so many are hyping him up, I’m definitely not on board with that. I went back to my notes on Johnson during the college football season and before the hype machine smiled upon him. I noted a technically flawed, underdeveloped athlete who struggled to keep pass rushers from crossing his face inside. It is troubling that a player just learning a position has so many technical issues that did not get better from September through December. There is absolutely a lot to work with in Lane Johnson, and he should round into a solid starter at either tackle spot. But if a team drafts him with the intention of inserting an above-average left tackle into the lineup right away, they are going to be disappointed.

Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida--Floyd was the draftnik flavor of the week on more than one occasion, and I’m guilty of being seduced by his game. It’s hard to not get infatuated with splash plays where he crashes the gap and body slams the runner to the grass, or beats the blocker to the point of attack on the edge (say hello Menelik Watson!) and blows up a play. Yet the more I watched Sharrif Floyd, the more I found reason to nitpick. His pad level is consistently way too high, and he doesn’t have a natural feel for where blockers are coming from or how to avoid them. He basically won on hustle and being a superior athlete, two advantages he won’t get in the next level. Fortunately for Floyd, much of why I think he might bust is coachable and fixable over time. But going in the top 20 picks--and he could go as high as third overall--dictates that teams and fans are going to want a lot more from him early on than he can deliver.

Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee--One of the words of wisdom that has forever stuck with me as a talent evaluator is this: the primary function of a wide receiver is to catch the football. More to the point, he should at least try to catch every football he can. Hunter showed an alarming propensity for dropping the ball, but also a seeming timidity to mix it up with the defensive back. Hunter had a drop rate of over 12%, which would have been the worst in the NFL as well last season. Watching him reminded me some of Braylon Edwards, another player with inexplicable drop issues. Hunter’s lack of physical strength impacts his ability to fight for balls in traffic. In fact, there were some instances (the Georgia game comes to mind) where Hunter seemed more content to just bat the ball away from a potential INT rather than trying to catch it. I believe Edwards is a good career analogy for Hunter, a player who can have a strong run of games where the obvious physical talent produces excellent results, but those stretches are overwhelmed by prolonged stretches where the local fans want him to be thrown into a piranha tank.

Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas--Most every scouting report on Vaccaro trumpets his playmaking ability in coverage and his outstanding speed. So for Vaccaro to have just 5 career INTs, 10 tackles for loss, 16 passes defended, and two forced fumbles in four years at Texas, well, that’s just not that dynamic or impressive. What really concerns me with Vaccaro is his inability to control his body or his thought process. His instincts are pretty solid, but he can overreact to what he sees. When he is at full speed he is a missile at a position where sometimes it’s better to be a shotgun and cover more area. I’m not as enamored with his man coverage skills as most are, either, though he’s certainly better than some other safeties who will be taken in the first two days. Consider Vaccaro’s appearance on this list as more of a tempering of expectations than a forecast of bustdom on the level of Taylor Mays or even Michael Griffin, another overhyped Texas safety who is good enough to hold onto a job but not good enough to justify a top 20 pick. 

Booms

I define these as players who will be taken in the 3rd round or later who dramatically outperform their draft position.

Devonte Holloman, LB, South Carolina--Holloman is a converted safety who bulked up to a thicker-than-expected 240 pounds but didn’t lose any of his quickness. In a league that strongly desires linebackers with coverage skills, Holloman is the man for the job. His fluidity in coverage is excellent, and he has a very sound understanding of football geometry. The knocks, and they are valid, are that he struggles to get off blocks and isn’t a thumping hitter. Those were the same knocks laid on Lavonte David and Daryl Washington, two excellent linebackers right out of the gate. Holloman isn’t quite to that level, but don’t be surprised to see him starting quickly and for a long time despite being a 3rd or 4th round pick.

Corey Fuller, WR, Virginia Tech--He’s not going to overwhelm you with size or speed, though he’s got them both. He’s not going to drop your jaw with quickness or explosiveness, but he’s got enough of both of those too. His college production pales in comparison to some of the other wideouts, with just one year where he did much of anything for the Hokies. Fuller simply does everything asked of a wideout and does them well. Then you look at the athletic metrics and see why he is a legit diamond in the rough. He’s 6’2” and a former track star, a late-blooming football talent. I loved his footwork, coordination, and hands during Shrine Game week. His build, athleticism, and playing style are all very similar to Miles Austin, and teams will be able to get that from a 5th or 6th round pick in Fuller.

David Quessenberry, OL, San Jose State--My Senior Bowl notebook was pockmarked with positive mentions of Quessenberry. He’s got great feet and enough lateral range to handle playing on the edge, but he also showed me he has enough power and punch behind his punch to slide inside if needed. Watching him in practice sessions and again on game tape vs. Louisiana Tech and San Diego State, it was like I was watching David Diehl all over again. While that might scare some, he was good enough to start at left tackle for a Super Bowl winning Giants team and left guard for another Super Bowl champion Giants team. He won’t make the Pro Bowl more than once in his 11-year career, but Quessenberry will be an integral, versatile piece for a good football team and won’t cost more than a 4th round pick.

Josh Evans, S, Florida--A funny thing happened while I was breaking down film of Evans’ more celebrated secondary mate, Matt Elam. While Elam flew all over the field with reckless abandon, Evans quietly but consistently adjusted to how Elam played and embodied the literal definition of the word “safety”. Much like Ryan Clark’s responsibility and headiness allows Troy Polamalu to freelance and guess a lot, Evans filled that role for the Gators. He will be able to do the same thing at the next level, playing next to a playmaking safety and doing the little things that keep the defense from breaking down. It’s unlikely Evans gets drafted before the late 4th round because of concerns about his 4.65 speed and his rudimentary ball skills, but he will make the playmakers around him better.

Uzoma Nwachuckwu, WR, Texas A&M--Looking for a field-stretching blazer with experience playing in a variety of roles and offensive systems? Need a deep threat that also understands how to work back and flow with a scrambling quarterback? Trying to find a player whose best football is ahead of him? I present you with Uzoma Nwahuckwu. For my money he was one of the most improved receivers in the nation in 2012 despite having his catch total decline. He altered his stance at the line to get off cleaner and quicker, and his footwork on shorter routes and across the middle also improved. For teams like Carolina, Seattle, or Washington that have mobile quarterbacks that also like to throw down the field, Nwachuckwu makes an excellent 6th or 7th round option.