RealGM Analysis
$.01-- If you didn’t stay up for the entire Sunday night game between New England and San Francisco, boy did you miss an instant classic! It’s hard to fault anyone who bailed on the game when San Francisco went up 31-3 early in the third quarter. It took forever to get to that point as referee Ed Hochuli served as a human rain delay. The Niners could do no wrong, scoring on a fumbled snap and a stunningly easy touchdown throw from Colin Kaepernick to Michael Crabtree a play after Aldon Smith picked off Tom Brady.
What happened after San Francisco jumped out to that massive lead, the biggest deficit the Patriots have ever faced in Gillette Field, is the stuff of legend. New England scored touchdowns the next four times they go the ball, while the Niners failed to run more than four plays on any of their next three drives. Brady flashed his MVP credentials, slinging darts to Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, and Brandon Lloyd all over the formation. Danny Woodhead snuck under several tackles for some effective yards, including a six-yard TD that started the comeback. Brady even found Michael Hoomanawanui for a 41-yard gain that set up a QB sneak TD on the first play of the fourth quarter. An iffy pass interference call set up the next Patriots touchdown, a quick toss to Hernandez. The Niners were flat once again, getting a holding penalty and allowing a sack before punting away from deep in their own territory.
The Patriots weren’t done yet. Brady hooked up with Lloyd twice and also ran twice on his own to set up a Woodhead touchdown that tied the game. It was a fast and furious comeback that would shellshock nearly every opponent. But not the Niners. Rookie LaMichael James nearly took the kickoff all the way back, and then Coach Harbaugh went for the quick kill. It was a brilliant call, as they isolated Michael Crabtree on Kyle Arrington on the left side. Kaepernick delivered a strike, Arrington couldn’t decide between trying to defend the pass or make the tackle and did neither, and Crabtree sprinted into the end zone. All of the sudden the avalanche of momentum that had brought the Patriots all the way back was firmly stopped and reversed.
The game was far from over. Brady quickly went back to work, finding Welker for two first downs and bringing the crowd back to life once again. But consecutive sacks by the Niners defense, one by a helmetless Ray McDonald, forced a punt. Ted Ginn fumbled the punt but fell on his own grenade. The Patriots D held tough and forced another punt, but the San Francisco defense was game as well. Brady’s pass on 4th and two from his own 12 flew over Woodhead’s head, and the Niners took over in the red zone. A David Akers field goal made it a two score game inside of two minutes. Brady led New England to a field goal to restore hope, but the 49ers recovered the onside kick and ended the amazing game.
It was one of the best games I’ve ever watched. Or rather, the best half of a game, as the first half was a dreadful sluggish blowout. If this was a Super Bowl preview, and it very well might have been, I cannot wait for the rematch.
$.02--Dallas and Pittsburgh played a de facto playoff elimination game in JerryWorld. The game had all the intensity you would expect with such high stakes. Dallas ultimately won in overtime after Brandon Carr picked off Ben Roethlisberger and returned it to the Steelers one yard line. Dan Bailey made the chip shot and made the NFC playoff race a whole lot more crowded.
Dallas is now tied with Washington and New York at 8-6 in the NFC East. This win came courtesy of the defense and Tony Romo, who once again avoided making mistakes while frequently using his creative flair to make plays and extend drives. The Cowboys defense came up big, sacking Roethlisberger twice despite some coverage and injury issues. They continued the spirit of togetherness forged in the death of Jerry Brown at the hands of their own Josh Brent. It was an emotional win, an important win, and the kind of win Cowboys fans have come to never expect from their team in December.
The Steelers still have playoff life, but this game has to be disheartening. Roethlisberger was certainly more than disheartened after the game, and his disgust with the play calling of OC Todd Haley was barely veiled at all. The Pittsburgh media was all too willing to stir the pot, asking Roethlisberger leading questions about why Heath Miller disappeared from the game plan or why he didn’t audible into run plays when presented with a four-man box. Ben did a masterful job biting his tongue, but it was plainly obvious he was livid with his abrasive coordinator. He has a right to be upset, but his own rustiness didn’t help. Even though he made a couple of unbelievable plays, Big Ben lacked sharpness and wasn’t in total rhythm most of the day. Both he and Haley must be better next week in the win-or-die game with the Bengals, who they trail by a game.
$.03--Houston wrapped up the AFC South with a strong victory over the Colts, 29-17. It was an excellent rebound from the giant egg they laid Monday night in New England.
It was also a return to dominance by JJ Watt, who registered three sacks and hit Andrew Luck at least three other times. He forced a fumble in the red zone and had six total tackles for loss, and also drew a holding penalty which was declined. As ESPN Stats tweeted during the game, Watt now has 32.5 disrupted dropbacks this season to lead the league. Second place is Aldon Smith with 19.5; that’s akin to winning the rushing title by 500 yards. This was a statement game for his Defensive Player of the Year candidacy.
It was not the sort of statement Andrew Luck wanted to make in his quest to win Offensive MVP. Under heavy pressure all day, Luck look flustered and unconfident. He finished 13-for-27, 186 yards, and two TDs, which wound up being better than I expected from watching the game. Once again, several of his shorter throws bounced wildly off the mark, and he overthrew wide open receivers on two different occasions that ended drives. The Colts D did its part, holding the Texans offense when it needed to and forcing six field goal attempts. Vick Ballard consistently gashed the Texans D for nice chunks of yardage, further exploiting the gaping hole left by the loss of Brian Cushing weeks ago. But Luck could never get much going, save the 61-yard strike to TY Hilton that once again exposed the loss of Cushing. This was a real chance for Luck and the Colts to make a statement, but the young Houston native was not up to the task on this Sunday.
$.04--For all of those who wanted a statement win by the Atlanta Falcons, how about a 34-0 thrashing of the Giants? It was a complete and thorough butt kicking by the home team, who looked vastly superior in all three phases of the game.
Matt Ryan was almost perfect, completing 23-of-28 for 270 yards and three touchdowns. His TD throws to Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones were excellent placements that trusted his talented teammates to make tough catches, and they delivered. The Falcons converted nine third downs on thirteen attempts and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes. About the only thing they didn’t do great was run the ball, but they ran well enough to eat clock and keep the chains moving.
The Atlanta defense set the tone early as well. Asante Samuel picked off Eli Manning on New York’s second play, and the G-Men never recovered. Sean Weatherspoon and the linebackers were everywhere, undercutting routes and quickly closing on ball carriers if they happened to make it past the first level. It was a brilliantly conceived plan of attack. Though they didn’t get to Manning a lot, the Falcons constantly disrupted his throwing lanes and altered the timing on routes. The special teams were good as well, containing the explosive David Wilson on returns while Matt Bryant was perfect on field goals.
It’s foolish to draw any conclusions about the Giants from this one; we’ve seen similar clunkers in Decembers past, and they bounce back and find a way. For Atlanta, I don’t think you can understate the importance of such a convincing marquee victory. Even though they downplay it, they are acutely aware of the perception they can’t beat good teams and aren’t nearly as good as their record indicated. This was a dominating victory over the defending champs in prime billing. They looked fantastic, and it was not a fluke. I still want to see them do it in January, but this win gives me more confidence they can do that. You better believe it gives them a lot of confidence too.
$.05--Congrats to the Green Bay Packers, champions of the NFC North after vanquishing the pesky Bears 21-13. It’s a complete reversal of the early season standings, where the Bears started out 7-1 and looked capable of winning the Super Bowl and the Packers struggled to a 2-3 start with myriad issues.
Since that point the Bears have won once and the Packers have lost once. Green Bay doesn’t look near as sharp as they did in ripping off a 15-1 regular season a year ago, but they’re getting better as the playoffs approach. After the Bears opened the scoring in the second quarter with a Brandon Marshall touchdown to cap off an impressive drive, Green Bay dominated. The Packers defensive front controlled the game, forcing Jay Cutler into several hurried, forced throws and sacked him four times. Clay Matthews returned from his injury hiatus and bagged two of those. The corners provided blanket coverage, successfully containing Marshall and taking away Cutler’s primary look. When Cutler did throw, Casey Hayward and Sam Shields got their hands on the ball or drew offensive pass interference from Alshon Jeffery, who has very little legal ability to get separation.
Not that the Packers didn’t try to give it away. Mike McCarthy continues to stubbornly cling to the notion that running a FB dive to John Kuhn that gains 2 yards every single time is the best option on 3rd and 6. A gadget punt return pass by Randall Cobb turned into a Bears red zone opportunity when their offense desperately needed a lift. The Packers own line struggled to keep Rodgers upright, and they had over 100 penalty yards. Mason Crosby continued one of the worst seasons ever by a kicker, missing two more field goals.
But when the pressure turned up, Green Bay rose and the Bears sunk. You might recall the Bears also had an epic collapse last season, going from 7-3 and firmly in control of their own playoff destiny to 7-8 after Cutler got hurt. It’s hard to fathom a coaching staff surviving two monumental choke jobs like that in consecutive years. Injuries have absolutely played a major part in those collapses, but the Packers have had just as many key injuries and are dancing into the playoffs on a high note once again. Don’t think the Windy City sports fans don’t know that, and new GM Phil Emery has little reason to stay loyal to Lovie Smith, who has made the playoffs just once in six years since their Super Bowl appearance.
$.06--The Denver Broncos kept the Ravens reeling with an unmitigated whipping. The final of 34-17 doesn’t begin to describe the massive gulf between these two teams. Denver led 31-3 at one point before coasting home.
There was a series early in the third quarter that epitomizes the divergent directions these two teams are heading. The Broncos were already ahead 17-3 but in their own territory and facing a fired-up Ravens D. Knowshon Moreno fumbled a ball on 2nd down and the Ravens had a couple of chances to recover it, but the ball scooted out of bounds and the Broncos retained possession. Two plays later, Peyton Manning threw a laser down the same sideline to Eric Decker, who had torched corner Cary Williams so badly that Williams pulled up to get out of the camera shot. Touchdown Broncos. Baltimore responded with two ugly Joe Flacco incompletions and a harangued dump to Ray Rice for a 3-and-out that took 40 seconds. After Tiny Trindon Holiday nearly broke the punt return, the Broncos scored three plays later to push the margin to 31-3 and force a mass exodus from the Ravens faithful, who booed vociferously upon their departure.
Denver accomplished what I wanted to see to really believe in them. They went on the road and pounded a playoff team. Peyton Manning was nothing short of fantastic, while Moreno continues a nice resurgence to his fledgling career. On the other side, the Ravens continue to look disheveled, discordant, and disastrous as they approach the postseason. Clearly firing OC Cam Cameron was not the solution. Their defense is staid and vulnerable, and their offense still predictable and erratic. They are the team everyone wants to play in the first round, while the Broncos are the team nobody wants to see.
$.07--Awards:
Offense: Adrian Peterson. 24 carries, 214 yards, two TDs. He put the Vikings on his broad shoulders once again and had them comfortably ahead of the Rams (33-7) before St. Louis mounted a bit of a comeback. AD squelched that with a 52-yard run on first down that iced the game. If the Vikings make the playoffs, he is the league MVP no matter who the media votes for the award.
Defense: JJ Watt. See the third cent above. Special mention to Broncos CB Chris Harris for the game-changing pick six of Joe Flacco just before halftime.
Special Teams: Sebastian Janikowski. The Raiders kicker booted five field goals, including a 57-yarder, to account for all the points in one of the most dreadfully humdrum games of the season. It assures the Raiders they will not finish in last place, so that’s something.
Assistant Coach: Mike Nolan. The Falcons defensive coordinator pitched a shutout on Eli Manning and the Giants in a must-win game. His charges were always a step ahead of the offense, correctly reading formations and flying to the ball. New Orleans and Oakland (Oakland?!) also pitched shutouts, but the opponents were much less impressive.
$.08--5 NFL Quickies
1. I got involved in a lengthy Twitter debate about Sam Bradford during the Vikings romp over the Rams. As another person pointed out, why doesn’t Bradford get more negative scrutiny for being, on his best day, a mediocre starting QB? He is the same QB now he was his junior year at Oklahoma, a reactive thrower with poor accuracy and skittish pocket presence. As some validly pointed out he has not had a lot to work with in his Rams tenure, but they chose to keep him instead of drafting RG3. That’s the prism needed to judge Bradford, and he is nowhere close to RG3 despite having three years on him.
2. Another team that probably needs to more strongly reconsider their long-term QB situation is Tampa Bay, where Josh Freeman was horrible for the third week in a row. Freeman is angling for a contract extension this summer but the Bucs have little incentive to do anything as Freeman continues with his lackadaisical preparation and lousy accuracy. The Saints smoked the Bucs 40-0 with a giant middle finger to Roger Goodell that had to feel good for Drew Brees.
3. I know Tim Ryan from Fox had a rough week with the death of his father. Maybe he should have taken the week off. His color on the Lions/Cards game varied between stating the obvious and making ponderous pronouncements. At one point he asked Mike Pereira where he got his hair products. You’re better than that, T-Rock…
4. Not much has gone right for Jacksonville, but Cecil Shorts is an exception. The speedy young receiver hauled in six passes for 101 yards, giving him 20 catches for 364 yards in the last four games. With Justin Blackmon also emerging late in his rookie year since Chad Henne took over at QB, the Jaguars appear to have a decent 1-2 punch at WR going forward.
5. Arizona pounded my Lions 38-10 thanks to two pick sixes thrown by Matt Stafford and a host of other Detroit mistakes. I was literally sick to my stomach writing my summary of the game for DetroitLionsDraft.com, and I may never eat roasted red pepper hummus again because of this abomination. This is the sort of effort that demands coaching changes, if not to Jim Schwartz then certainly to his lieutenants.
$.09--5 College/Draft Quickies
1. If the first bowl game is any indication of what is to come, we’re in for one heck of a bowl season. Arizona trailed Nevada 21-0 early and appeared quite literally defenseless, giving up 30 first downs in the first half. Things were so bad for the Wildcats that the brawled on their own sidelines. But Rich Rodriguez somehow rallied his team for a furious comeback to get them within respectable distance. Still, they trailed by 13 with a minute to go. The first Arizona TD of that period was a gift from the officials thanks to two egregious pass interference calls. Arizona recovered the onside kick, then QB Matt Scott quickly got them back in the end zone to steal a 49-48 win in the Gildan New Mexico Bowl. What a way to kick off a season, though I still have no idea what Gildan represents.
2. The second bowl game, the Idaho Potato Bowl, wasn’t as suspenseful. Utah State pounded Toledo 41-15. I watched this game primarily to focus on two Aggies, RB Kerwyn Williams and CB Will Davis. Davis didn’t have a lot to do as Toledo rotated ineffective QBs but generally impressed. Williams did very little for the first three quarters before he apparently got accustomed to the Smurf Turf in Boise and went ballistic in the 4th. Williams is a nifty runner with great vision, and he’s an excellent receiver out of the backfield. At times he shows good power and he’s built sturdily, but too often he goes down on first contact and doesn’t grind for extra yards. Other draftniks are going to trumpet him, but I’m more of a flautist for Williams. And unlike the earlier game, viewers were beaten over the head with sponsor Idaho potato ads.
3. Mini scouting report on Oregon State CB Jordan Poyer: tough, rangy cover man with good versatility; can play outside or line up in the slot, and he has the speed to turn and run with deep threats outside the hashes but the size and physicality to handle flexed tight ends. Very aggressive with the ball in the air and has good timing with his ball skills. Can be grabby. Will stare into the backfield at times. Effective tackler but is often a drag-and-dropper. Better in man than zone. Should be a top 40 pick.
4. Mini scouting report on Tennessee WR Justin Hunter, who declared for the draft on Friday: Big body (6’4”, 205) with impressive physique. Has outstanding burst off the line and good long speed. Uses his length and speed to separate nicely on deeper routes. Good runner after the catch, shows power and elusiveness. Suffers from far too many lapses in concentration. Often struggles with coordinating his hands to the rest of his body, resulting in awkward drops and loss of balance on some catches. 2nd-3rd round talent but will go higher on potential.
5. Mini scouting report on West Texas A&M tackle Manase Foteki, of whom there is nothing “mini”: Massive left tackle transferred from Kansas State with some acrimony. Big boned with long arms. Quick off the snap. Has decent knee bend. Moves well but deliberately, shuffle step is technically correct but looks methodical. Very powerful hand punch and arm extension, locks in and erases his man. Limited range as a run blocker. Left KSU after missing 2011 w/ torn Achilles but was their top-graded OL in 2010. Will impress in strength tests, will not in agility drills. Might be a better guard, except he’s better at pass blocking than as a run blocker. Solid middle-round prospect for a power-oriented team.
$.10--Like everyone, I was greatly impacted by what happened in Newtown. It was a very difficult day for this father of two young children and former teacher. I’m not afraid to admit I shed many tears watching the coverage, imagining the horror that those parents must feel. Picking my son up at the bus stop that day was an emotional event. Every kid that got off the bus got hugged. Hard.
President Obama held a press conference that interrupted the Sunday Night game between the Patriots and Niners, and I think it was the best moment of his presidency. I found his tone absolutely perfect. His words struck home. The mass murdering of children is not a political issue. Anyone who tries to make it one has an agenda that is not worth promoting. Remember that as you watch the news over the next few days. I agree with our President; I don’t know what the right answers or course of action might be, but I know that doing nothing is not acceptable.
Enjoy football this week, but enjoy your family more. You never know when you might lose them.
