Last Week: 11-2, pushing the season forecast to a very sunny 71-33. Both missed picks last week were reaches on one-win teams that were home underdogs.

The amateur meteorologist in me is really hoping for a fresh version of The Perfect Storm in the northeast. It’s been another disappointing tropical season in Houston, as we were barely brushed by just one storm a year after getting nothing. I need some weather action! 

Thursday

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (26) at Minnesota Vikings (7): There are a couple of reasons why I’m more of a believer in the Vikings than most people. First is their defensive efficiency, or yards per play allowed; they rank 3rd in the league behind only San Francisco and Houston. Chris Cook has taken the proverbial next step at corner, and Antoine Winfield remains one of the best all-around corners in the game on the other side. Secondly, they are very good at home. That defense is a brick wall in Minnesota, forcing eight turnovers and ranking in the top-6 in both rushing and passing defense at home. The noise in that stadium is a huge asset, and that will be especially true in prime time against a lesser opponent. The Bucs were game at home against New Orleans, losing because of some poor coaching and near-misses at the end of the game. If they couldn’t execute end-of-game situations at home against a dreadful defense, I don’t see them doing any better on the road against a very good one. Vikings 24, Buccaneers 15.

Sunday Games

Atlanta Falcons (2) at Philadelphia Eagles (23): Atlanta is undefeated and coming off its bye week, a much-needed respite for an increasingly shaky team. The Eagles are 3-3, having lost three of four and firing Defensive Coordinator Juan Castillo. The edges are completely frayed in Philly, where Castillo is almost certainly not the last coaching change you’ll see in the next few months. The Eagles are awful at protecting the football

So how in the world are the Eagles favored, and by a line that has actually increased from 1 to 2.5?! I know people are expecting the Falcons’ inevitable first loss sooner than later, and given the way they entered the bye I can completely understand that sentiment. I know Andy Reid’s Eagles are legendarily awesome coming out of their bye week, a perfect 13-0 off the break. I know that there is too much offensive firepower in Philly for them to continue to struggle so mightily to put up points or have big plays. I know all that, and I don’t discount the validity of any of it. But this sure seems like free money to me, an undefeated team with a dynamic offense coming off a bye GETTING 2.5 points against a floundering, underachieving team that is playing under a lame duck coaching staff. Falcons 30, Eagles 28.

New England Patriots (10) vs. St. Louis Rams (22) in London: Upset Alert! Upset Alert! The Patriots are barely scraping by lately, consistently squandering leads to mediocre quarterbacks thanks to a perennially shuffling secondary and a largely ineffective pass rush. They win largely because they are +11 in turnover margin, and their 18 takeaways ranks second to Chicago’s 21. But the Rams don’t turn the ball over all that much (nine giveaways). They played against a similarly pass-happy offense last week in Green Bay and acquitted themselves fairly well. They have a good pass rush that can come from more than one source. Sam Bradford is the very definition of a mediocre quarterback, and those guys seem to give the Patriots more trouble than the elite ones. A little birdie told me that Rams coach Jeff Fisher really wants to knock of Bill Belichick, and his charges will be fired up to help their coach achieve his goal. St. Louis is technically the home team and they’re getting 6.5 points. The home dog bites like a British Bulldog, going Brutus the Barber Beefcake on Ric Flair, err, Tom Brady. Rams 24, Patriots 21.

Indianapolis Colts (21) at Tennessee Titans (20): Amazingly this game has legit playoff implications, as the winner is the clear-cut 2nd place team in the AFC South and will be no worse than a half-game out of holding a Wild Card spot.

I’m going to take this opportunity to rage against the advanced stats machine here. The numbers geeks, whom I often respect and greatly appreciate, keep touting how well Andrew Luck charts out in their machinations and contrivances. Well my trained eyeballs tell me that Luck has been the inferior actual thrower of the pigskin in each of his last two games. You might say, “but Luck has led his team to wins”. Maybe so, but last week fellow rookie Brandon Weeden had better accuracy, made better decisions (save one), and demonstrated better downfield velocity and confidence in it than Luck. I’m not saying that Luck isn’t playing well, but the advanced stat metrics belie the reality of what is actually happening on the field.

This is a good week for Luck to convince me otherwise, as the Titans pass defense will give up large chunks of yardage and struggles to get off the field on 3rd down. Here is a great chance for Luck to win a divisional road game, and I think he seizes it. Colts 27, Titans 24.

Washington Redskins (13) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12): Every now and then I like to take a stab at predicting precisely how a game will play out. As I stare into my crystal ball (read: empty Ohio State coffee mug), I see the following:

Steelers come out running the ball, but their long drive sputters. Sean Suisham 28-yard FG gives them the early lead. Skins and Steelers then trade 4 punts with the Skins getting the field position edge. They take advantage with a 22-yard Alfred Morris run to the three, which sets up RG3 scoring on a read-option bootleg early in the second quarter.

Pittsburgh answers right away, with Big Ben hooking up with Antonio Brown for a 71-yard TD pass behind broken coverage. The Skins turn the ball over quickly after the kickoff, and another midrange Suisham field goal makes the score 13-7 at halftime.

Washington takes the second half kickoff and follows with an impressive 11-play, 78 yard drive. RG3 completes all 6 passes, including the drive capper, a 11-yard TD strike to Logan Paulsen all alone behind the linebackers on the left side. A quick three-and-out by Pittsburgh gives the Skins the ball back, and they capitalize with a 46-yard field goal after a holding penalty wipes out a long RG3 run. Skins lead 17-13 as the fourth quarter begins.

Pittsburgh seizes the lead with another long TD, this time to Mike Wallace for 56 yards after Big Ben converts two 3rd and shorts with quick hits to Heath Miller. The Steelers force a punt thanks to a James Harrison sack, but a roughing the punter call gives Washington new life. RG3 capitalizes, scampering for 37 yards on the drive. Alfred Morris scores on a 4-yard run to give the Skins the 24-20 lead with just over 4 minutes remaining.

Ryan Kerrigan sacks Big Ben on 1st down, and on 3rd and 16 Kerrigan gets to Ben again, forcing a fumble. Rob Jackson recovers at the Pittsburgh 7. The Skins score on the first play, but a holding penalty on Kory Lichtensteiger wipes it out. Mike Shanahan goes conservative and the Skins run the ball three times, playing for the 33-yard Kai Forbath field goal that pushes the lead to 27-20 with 1:44 remaining.

That’s enough time for Big Ben and the Steelers. A controlled series of passes to Miller and Brown push the ball into Washington territory, and on 1st and 10 at the Skins 29 with 23 seconds left Big Ben clocks the ball. His first pass is too high for Wallace in the left corner. On 3rd down Big Ben scrambles to his right to avoid pressure and unleashes a bullet towards Brown just as he crosses out of the end zone. He makes the catch but is tackled at the two yard line, and time expires before they can kill the clock and get one more play. Washington 27, Pittsburgh 20.

Miami Dolphins (15) at New York Jets (16): In their first meeting a month ago, the Jets won in overtime thanks to forcing some 2nd half turnovers and two straight 3-and-outs in the 4th quarter. Miami tied the game on a field goal in the final minute, but the Jets defense controlled the game after halftime. I think we are going to see more of that this week. Ryan Tannehill has been better than advertised as a rookie, and I say that as someone who really liked him in the draft process. But I believe he will have his hands full this week. The Jets are playing more consistently solid defense, and Antonio Cromartie is simply out of his mind at corner. The weather could be gnarly with Hurricane Sandy meeting up with a strong cold front from the Great Lakes. At best, it’s going to be windy and damp and very difficult to both throw and kick. Take the under. Jets 14, Dolphins 8.

New York Giants (3) at Dallas Cowboys (18): Cowboys fans wondering why the rest of the world hates them need only look at the line on this game. Despite the Giants valiantly coming back against the Redskins and flat-out smoking the 49ers--both better teams than Dallas--in the last two games, the Cowboys amazingly opened as 1.5 point favorites. Smart money immediately poured in on the Giants, and the line keeps expanding to as high as -2.5 in favor of the visitors now. Considering most books automatically give the Cowboys a 1-point bump because their sycophantic fans show their overconfidence with their wallets, that’s a huge amount of cash flowing towards New York.

I agree with the money, though it’s too late to buy in. Dallas lost Sean Lee, one of the best inside backers in the game. He is not only their leading tackler, he’s also their best cover backer and defensive signal caller. Lee’s loss cannot be overstated. Dallas does have some depth with young Bruce Carter, but Plan B is now former Lions and Eagles bust Ernie Sims. That means ILB #3 for Dallas is a guy who was too light and undisciplined to play outside in a 4-3, and now he’ll be asked to play in tighter quarters against bigger people. Good luck with that.

There’s also the gross mismatch of the Giants defensive line against the poor Dallas offensive line. The Cowboys line has actually played better lately, but so has the Giants defense. This could shape up to be another long and frustrating day for Romosexuals and fantasy owners of Dez Bryant. Giants 30, Cowboys 24.

Seattle Seahawks (8) at Detroit Lions (24): If you polled Lions fans this summer, the main worry about the offense was the line up front. Jeff Backus and Dominic Raiola are both on the wrong side of 33, Rob Sims has the range of a Hummer, and Gosder Cherilus has been wildly inconsistent at right tackle. But thus far this year, the offensive line has been excellent. Seriously, they’ve been one of the best lines in the league. Even though the Lions haven’t run the ball exceptionally well, it’s more on the lack of dedication to the run than poor blocking or performance by Mikel Leshoure. In a year of so many dark clouds, the offensive line has been a surprising silver lining.

This game shapes up to be a defensive slugfest. Both defenses are in the top 10 in efficiency, and they rank first and second in red zone defense. Both offenses are also wretched in the red zone, so the touchdowns in this game are likely to come via the big play. Even though I love the Seattle secondary, I like the Matt Stafford/Calvin Johnson pairing to produce a big play more than I think Russell Wilson/Sidney Rice will be able to produce one. At some point the Detroit passing offense (read: Matt Stafford) will play well before the final 6 minutes of a game. This is perhaps the most unlikely opponent for that to happen against, but that’s why they play the games. Detroit 17, Seattle 13.

San Diego Chargers (9) at Cleveland Browns (28): I’ve picked the Browns three weeks in a row. They won one of those. Lesson learned. Cleveland is promising but not there yet, and this is the time of year where Norv Turner’s Chargers typically peak. Chargers 27, Browns 20.

Jacksonville Jaguars (32) at Green Bay Packers (6): There have been very few, absolute zero percent chance of one team beating another in the modern NFL. Parity and Any Given Sunday syndrome ensure that the underdog has at least a 20% chance of pulling off the highly improbable. This game is the rare exception. Packers 36, Jaguars 13.

Carolina Panthers (30) at Chicago Bears (4): There might not be another matchup of two teams with such contrasting momentums this year. The Bears are flying high off a Monday night win over division rival Detroit, holding the Lions to a garbage-time touchdown and forcing more of their patented turnovers. Carolina comes in with pants on fire for the coaching staff after their abysmal start sent GM Marty Hurney packing. They were lethargic, predictable, and loosely disciplined in the loss against Dallas. Then there’s Cam Newton seizing the “the guys around me suck, don’t blame me” QB mantle from Jay Cutler, who has nicely rehabilitated his image by playing better and learning how to take the pulse of his team.

On that front, it’s simultaneously funny and sad to me that the race card got played regarding Newton’s post-game press conference. When I watched it, the first QB I thought of wasn’t Vince Young but rather Jay Cutler and how he’s handled similar situations without the anticipated aplomb. Being vapid and discordant following a loss is a trait that crosses pigments. Too many in the media take the lazy way out, and the Warren Moon’s of the world are absolutely correct in calling those irresponsible dunderheads out. The flip side is that it often seems very troubling for some black commentators and writers to profess honest criticism on Newton, Mike Vick, and other black quarterback when it’s warranted. Just as Newton’s undesirable conduct is not a function of skin color, neither is short-sighted, self-serving ignorance. Bears 31, Panthers 17.

Oakland Raiders (29) at Kansas City Chiefs (31): This is the weekly for-draftniks-only matchup, and the implications for April are fairly consequential here. If the Chiefs lose at home to their bitter rival while coming off a bye week, they seize the front-runner status for the #1 overall pick. But a Kansas City win puts the Raiders back in play for that spot and makes the ordination of the first five picks very much a pulling numbers out of a hat situation. Did I mention I’m doing a mock draft, which will be up on this very page Friday?

The Raiders have the better quarterback and better defensive line, with the underappreciated Lamar Houston as the reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week. That will be enough to overcome the Brady Quinn experiment. Oakland 20, Kansas City 17.

New Orleans Saints (25) at Denver Broncos (11): When we last saw Peyton Manning and the Broncos offense, they were completing one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history. They accomplished this on the road against a division rival with a pretty strong defense, no less. When we last saw the Saints they were incredibly fortuitous to outscore the rather moribund, self-destructive Buccaneers, holding on only because Vincent Jackson is slow and his feet are about a half-inch too big.

As I mentioned in this week’s $.10, the thing that got lost in the shuffle of the Bucs/Saints game is how poorly Brees & Co. played in the second half. After torching the Bucs for over 300 yards and four TDs in the first half, Brees threw for just 64 in the second. The Bucs did almost nothing different, and while some of the precipitous decline is attributable to having a nice lead, it looked more like the pilot light went out in the water heater. Denver is a tough place to light a match, as their pass defense is very good at home. They’re also rested and have had ample time to counter the Saints unusual scheme, which is invaluable for a defensive coach like John Fox. I also think one of the very few opponents that can keep pace with Brees is Peyton Manning. He’s also had time to dissect the porous Saints D, which allows more yards per pass play than any other team and also ranks near the bottom in penalties. New Orleans will be game, but Denver is just better. Broncos 33, Saints 27.

Monday Night

San Francisco 49ers (5) at Arizona Cardinals (19): Last week, Arizona allowed 57 yards passing, forced two turnovers, and still lost in Minnesota to a good offensive line blocking for a great running back. The Niners line is even better than Minnesota’s, with three legit Pro Bowlers up front. Frank Gore is a reasonable facsimile to Adrian Peterson, and his backups are better than Minny’s. Their receiving corps is deeper and speedier than what the Vikings trotted out.

And then there is the real problem for Arizona: its own offense. The worst offensive line in recent memory cannot protect the worst starting QB in the league or open many holes for the 3rd string running back now forced into a starting role. I love the Cardinals wideouts and I think TE Rob Housler is progressing nicely, but having great receivers but a terrible line, crappy QB play, and no run support is the Matt Millen recipe for team building. Enjoy the four wins, Cards fans, because you might not get another one anytime soon. San Francisco 20, Arizona 11.

Byes: Buffalo (27), Cincinnati (17), Houston (1), Baltimore (14) 

Drinking at the Frat House Games

Ohio University 34, Miami 27 as the Bobcats continue their undefeated season and threaten to be a BCS buster.

Penn State 36, Ohio State 28. Don’t forget, Ohio U. won at Penn State and a Nittany Lions victory here helps the Bobcats in the computer ratings

Oklahoma 27, Notre Dame 17. The Irish just don’t have the firepower to pull it off in Norman.

Florida 24, Georgia 10. The Gators D is legit, while the Bulldogs offense isn’t always the same.

Kansas State 29, Texas Tech 23. If this game were in Lubbock I’d take the Red Raiders.