2011 Record: 8-8
Point Differential: +68
Turnover Margin: -14
Sack Differential: +18
Offense:
2011 Ranks
Rushing: 5th
Passing: 9th
3rd Down: 7th
Scoring: 8th
QB: Michael Vick returns for his third year as the starter of the Eagles, and when he’s been on the field in one piece Vick has been one of the most impactful starters in the league. Since joining the Eagles in 2009, Vick has progressed as a passer; he’s more than just a fast guy with a strong arm, which predominately characterizes his early NFL career. Vick has improved the consistency of his mechanics and his awareness of the defense. He is more apt to extend the play to make a throw instead of taking off at the first sign of peril. That’s not to say Vick is no longer a running threat, but his improved ability to throw on the run makes him even more dangerous out of the pocket.
Last year, Vick reverted to the Vick of old more than he did the prior year, and that resulted in more turnovers and more variability from game to game. Vick has come to the point in his career where he should grasp the need to stick within the offense, and I’m optimistic he will get back to doing more of that. In listening to Vick talk this offseason and talking to people around him, Vick seems to “get it” that he’s better served being the point guard with all the weapons, not the shooting guard and small forward taking all the shots and trying to do too much. If that comes to fruition (big if!), Vick could throw for 3500+ yards and 25+ TDs. I’ll scale back the expectations to 3250 yards and 20 TDs, with 10 INTs and another 8 fumbles…and those figures are for the 11.5 games I expect him to play.
And there’s the rub. Vick has only played all 16 games once in his career, ironically his weakest season as a passer but his most prolific as a rusher. Last year, he played in 13 games a year after playing in 11. He’s already taken a brutal hit in preseason that threatens to impact his availability for the opener, suffering bruised ribs. Vick has never learned to protect himself. Much like fellow 757 native Allen Iverson, Vick believes that sacrificing his body and showing his toughness and vulnerability is more important than self-preservation for the good of the team. It’s a cultural phenomenon of the Hampton Roads area I’ve documented before, and at 31, Vick is most certainly not to go change now. I set the over/under for Vick starts at 11.5, and given the bull’s-eye on his chest and his reckless style, that might be optimistic.
Having a quality backup is an imperative of Philadelphia, and Vince Young was not that guy. Mike Kafka has flashed some intriguing ability in preseason games, but he’s undersized and has questionable durability of his own. On the heels of a very strong early preseason, it appears rookie Nick Foles will be the #2. The 6th rounder from Arizona has reliably moved the offense during the preseason, showing good playbook knowledge and ball placement with confidence that belies his lowly status. I was not a fan of Foles heading into the draft, and I can’t imagine him having much of a positive experience if thrust into action this year, but I reserve the right to be proven wrong. Veteran Trent Edwards could take the #3 job from Kafka.
RB: LeSean McCoy is one of the most dangerous backs in the league, a legit home run threat every time he touches the ball. McCoy has blazing speed paired with an innate feel for the hole and instinctive ability to make guys miss. Andy Reid recognized the kind of impact McCoy has on defenses and ran the ball a higher percentage than he ever has as coach, and he’s been the head cheese in Philly for a long time now. McCoy operates very well out of the single back set the Eagles use almost exclusively as their base offense. His 17 TDs a year ago jump off the stat sheet and aren’t likely to be replicated, but Shady can certainly top double-digits again. McCoy’s ability to beat defenders to the corner, but also cut sharply and burst under control, make him lethal in red zone situations, particularly if the line blocks well. He can reliably catch the ball, witness his 78 receptions in 2010 and his 77% catch rate over the last three seasons. He’s a player I would strongly consider with the #1 overall fantasy draft pick, which might be why I don’t play fantasy football.
Diminutive Dion Lewis returns as the top backup, with rookies Bryce Brown and Chris Polk fighting a camp battle for the #3 spot. Lewis didn’t get a lot of opportunities but made the most of them, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The team felt confident enough in Lewis to try and deal Ronnie Brown (now in San Diego) midseason, and he can run the same plays that McCoy does. In many offenses teams want a back with different skills to be the backup, but Andy Reid has never really operated that way. Of the rookies, Brown is a little bigger and offers more upside, while Polk played his way down draft boards by looking sluggish his senior season at Washington. Look for both to stick as the Eagles will almost certainly not burn a roster spot on a fullback.
WR/TE: In Jeremy Maclin and Desean Jackson, the Eagles have a pair of dynamic wideouts with exceptional speed. Jackson gets as much attention for his brashness and self-fabricated drama as he does for his somewhat freakish ability to get open down the field. That drama was on full display last year, as Jackson struggled to a dramatically lower yards per catch (16.6, to 22.5 the prior year) and was less explosive once he caught the ball. Still, Jackson remains one of the preeminent vertical threats in the league and should bounce back to at least 18 yards per catch and double last year’s 4 TDs. It’s hard to ignore his diva persona and fragile build, both legit yellow flags, but I expect Jackson to have a very strong year.
Maclin proved his mettle last year, playing well despite an offseason illness that sapped his stamina and caused him to lose a great deal of weight. He caught 63 balls even with the sickly offseason and a bad hamstring that kept him from being as explosive off the line. Maclin has been freakishly consistent in his three years, averaging 13.8, 13.8, and 13.6 yards per catch with a catch rate between 62 and 65%. Look for more of the same old same old from Maclin, who has adjusted from blazing track star to intermediate route receiver far better than anyone could have guessed. I had Maclin as a 1st round talent out of Mizzou but thought he would be the vertical threat that Jackson serves on this team. It’s a testament to Maclin’s football acumen and hard work that he has become one of the better all-around wideouts in the league. His blocking last year helped a lot on some long McCoy runs.
Jason Avant is a tough-as-nails slot receiver, and he turned in a career high 52 catches and 679 yards last year. Avant is bigger and a little less catlike than the typical slot guy, but he has strong hands and knows how to separate and sit in a zone. He is also an excellent blocker. On a team with lesser outside weapons Avant probably doesn’t accomplish near what he does here, but this is a very strong marriage.
There are some questions beyond the top three. Hirsute speedster Riley Cooper clicked better with (mercifully) departed Vince Young than he has with Vick, and his catch rate of 43% is very poor for a 6’4” guy. Some will peg Cooper as a breakout candidate, but it would take an injury to Jackson to open that door. Rookie Marvin McNutt was a big play machine at Iowa but lacks great breakout speed, while UDFA Damaris Johnson appears headed for the practice squad. Small guy Chad Hall is on the team for his return abilities, not his 14 receptions over two seasons. The Eagles almost never use more than three wideouts at any one time.
Tight end is in good hands with Brent Celek. The five-year veteran is one of the best all-around tight ends in the league, a capable in-line blocker but blessed with enough athleticism to lead all tight ends in YAC last year. He could see an uptick in touchdowns if the team gets fewer long TDs and more red-zone opportunities. Backup Clay Harbor is a near clone of Celek physically and earned more playing time by showing better spatial awareness and toughness. He would start for many teams and gives OC Marty Mornhinweg a lot of flexibility to use two TE packages.
OL: Last year, rookies Jason Kelce and Danny Watkins were thrown into the fire at center and right guard, respectively. Both acquitted themselves pretty well in pass protection, able to hang on to their blocks while Vick scrambled. Watkins in particular showed great improvement at blocking in space as the season progressed, after he started slowly enough that he didn’t win the starting job for a few weeks. Both are agile blockers well-suited to handle the zone blocking scheme. Kelce needs to improve at standing up to power inside, but he should get better with more experience and confidence in knowing he won the job on his own merits as a 6th round rookie. Playing next to each other again should help reduce the miscommunications that pockmarked the season and got McCoy smashed in the backfield more than a few times; Philly had the highest percentage of run plays that resulted in tackles for loss. Evan Mathis was also a newcomer at left guard as a free agent from Carolina, and he factored into some of those missed blocks as well. Mathis was excellent in pass protection and brought a little snarl to the spot. The Eagles survived implementing an entirely new interior offensive line and still were one of the most potent offenses in the league, answering a huge question.
This year the big question is at left tackle. The spot is subject to an ongoing (as of Aug. 24) camp battle between King Dunlap and Demetress Bell. Dunlap stands 6’9” and has two of the longest arms in NFL history, but he has struggled in limited reserve duty on both sides. Bell started in Buffalo but kept the job mainly by default. He is sound in pass protection but often makes things more dramatic than they need to be, and it’s telling that the tackle-poor Bills made little effort to re-sign their own starting left side veteran. Nobody has ever trusted his motivation even when he’s mauled defenders as a run blocker. Dunlap is well-liked in the locker room and has definitively outplayed Bell during the early preseason, so give him the edge but with a quick hook.
Todd Herremans protects the lefty Vick’s blind side and does so very well. A former guard, the Saginaw Valley State (shameless GLIAC plug!) product brings max effort every snap and moves very well. Herremans is the master of taking the right angle and gaining the upper hand leverage-wise, allowing him to dictate the blocking. Figure on the loser of the left tackle battle, likely Bell, to be the top reserve tackle. That represents the depth up front; avoiding injury is an imperative. Mike Gibson is the only interior reserve with more than one preseason of action. Two late-round rookies, Brandon Washington and Dennis Kelly, and 2011 5th rounder Julian Vandevelde, round out the depth chart. I can see Kelly becoming a functional backup tackle, and Vandevelde is well-heeled from Iowa, but the fall in overall skill and cohesion--an integral key to OL Coach Howard Mudd’s system--looks to be massive if a starter goes down inside.
Defense:
2011 Ranks
Rushing: 16th
Passing: 10th
3rd Down: 12th
Scoring: 10th
DL: This group is almost absurdly deep, particularly at tackle. The Eagles use a four-man rotation that keeps everyone fresh and wears down offensive lines. Cullen Jenkins and Mike Patterson start, though Patterson’s availability is cloudy after (gulp) brain surgery this offseason. Jenkins is an agile behemoth who perfectly fits the scheme, an aggressive penetrator that can shed blocks and collapse his gap responsibility. He provided 5.5 sacks and another 7.5 tackles for loss, and his 34 of his 40 tackles took place shorter than one yard from the line. That’s more plays close to the line than his entire old team, the Packers, recorded all season without him. Patterson doesn’t make as many plays but is even better as a run anchor. He will be missed if he cannot return, but thanks to some savvy drafting the situation is far from dire.
Derek Landri and Fletcher Cox fill the rotation at tackle. Landri is lighter at about 290 and has the ability to slide outside in heavy formations. He never caught on in Jacksonville but fit nicely here with fewer responsibilities and lowered expectations. Cox is the Eagles 1st round pick out of Mississippi State, and he is more of a project than many draftniks want to admit. He fits more in the 3-technique mold, which is also Landri’s better spot inside, and needs to learn to bring the pain and intensity every snap. His ceiling is very high as a disruptive pass rusher. If he’s not ready for prime time, look for veteran Antonio Dixon to get more action. He is more of an immovable object type of lane clogger, though he is coming off a season where he played just four games. Second-year player Cedric Thornton has played well in camp and preseason and could factor into the mix as well. He appears lighter on his feet and surer of himself in his second season, and he will not clear waivers to the practice squad.
The ends play the widely disseminated Wide-9 technique, which features them starting well outside the tackles and creates big gaps that opposing running games gashed repeatedly. That’s not the fault of the ends, however; starters Trent Cole and Jason Babin were both fantastic at rushing the passer form the new scheme. The Eagles led the league in sacks with 50, with Babin notching 18 and Cole chipping in 11 in just 14 games. The duo has 52.5 combined sacks the last two seasons, which is an astonishing number. As long as both continue to consistently harass opposing QBs, the Eagles will live with their relative indifference in run defense. Both are on the long side of 30 and Babin bounced around for several lean years, so there is a little concern.
Fortunately, the depth outside might be even better than inside, though it’s more unproven. Veteran Darryl Tapp racked up 5 tackles for loss and brings great versatility to the edge. He is excellent against screens and has enough closing speed to bother QBs as well, though he will miss some tackles. Second round pick Vinny Curry has good length and possesses great fluidity and closing burst on the quarterback, an ideal fit in Philly. He can’t stack the edge against the run but the Eagles won’t ask him to do that. Former 1st rounder Brandon Graham is coming off an injury-plagued start to his career, but has had a nice offseason and will get another opportunity to show why former NFL GM Pat Kirwan called Graham the best end in the 2010 draft. CFL refugee Philip Hunt has also turned heads in camp after looking like a legit rotation guy in his first season in Philly. The youngsters are talented enough that Tapp might not make the team, and he could have viable trade value if desired.
LB: Heading into last season, I wasn’t sure the Eagles had a viable NFL linebacker on their roster. It was their Achilles heel and it cost them dearly. The team has undergone a complete transformation at the position since I wrote last year’s preview.
Adding Demeco Ryans to the middle is the biggest step. The former Texan was a misfit in the new 3-4 scheme with Houston, but he’s going back to the middle of the 4-3 where he is most comfortable. Ryans is an excellent run defender between the tackles, an instinctive hole filler with good power and sound tackling technique. While he’s never been a playmaker that forces turnovers, his steadying presence and reliability in snuffing out A and B gap runs is precisely what the doctor ordered for the Eagles defense.
Not content at just bolstering the middle, the Eagles drafted Cal’s Mychael Kendricks with their second round pick. Kendricks will start on the strong side and has the all-around skills to stay on the field in every situation. He is small at less than six feet and 240 pounds, but he moves with great fluidity and hits with force that belies his size. His coverage skills and ability to close with authority will be welcome additions to the defense.
The only holdovers worthy of keeping, Jamar Chaney and Brian Rolle, are competing for the starting WLB job. Rolle, a rookie last year who showed improvement as the season progressed, figures to have the job at some point. He is smaller than many safeties at 5’9” and 225 pounds, and he often gets engulfed by blockers in tighter run formations. Rolle has the instincts you would expect someone with his surname, and he played well in coverage down the stretch. He could thrive with better competence around him. Chaney started in the middle last year and recorded a lot of tackles, but his play against division rivals was very disappointing. He offers more stoutness than Rolle and a run/pass platoon could emerge. Akeem Jordan and Casey Matthews both remain on the roster but more as a function of providing a little experienced depth; neither will play unless injuries force DC Juan Castillo’s hand. It’s nice to have experienced depth, but Matthews was arguably the worst linebacker in the league as an overwhelmed rookie and Jordan has not impressed much when given chances. Jordan fit better in the old defensive scheme and could be an odd man out if he didn’t have so much value on special teams.
Secondary: A year after making a huge splash with the trade for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (hereafter DRC) and the lucrative free agent signing of Nnamdi Asomugha to upgrade the corner positions, the big change in 2012 is the departure of Asante Samuel. DRC and Asomugha are both better in press man coverage, which Castillo prefers, making the playmaking but erratic Samuel expendable.
Asomugha came under great fanfare, and that prism hurts the perception. He came from a vastly different scheme and was asked to play inside a lot, something he had never done before. Moving him back outside and allowing Asomugha to play more man coverage will both augment his play, and it’s not like he was bad in his first year with Philadelphia. He still provided strong coverage and played well against the run, something the departed Samuel was laughably inept at doing. DRC should make an excellent #2 corner and also plays better in man coverage than the vanilla zones the Eagles often used last year because none of their corners could play inside. He is long and physical, with great athletic ability with the ball in the air. He was even worse than Asomugha in the slot, but even better in man coverage outside. Veteran Joselio Hanson takes over the slot nickel role, a position he’s played well in the past. He’s a terrible run support player, however, and needs over-the-top safety help on deep routes. Young Curtis Marsh is still making the transition from running back to corner, but he has impressed this offseason and offers quickness and size as the dime back. Rookie Brandon Boykin is a young talent I liked a lot higher than his 4th round draft slot, and he could very well become the slot nickel in time. His initial season will likely be spent more on special teams, however.
Safety is the biggest question on the defense. Nate Allen played solid in coverage while coming off a torn ACL, and he should be even better in 2012. I found him an underrated gem heading into the 2010 draft, and his range should improve with a full offseason of rehab and more of a chance to get acclimated to the defense. Kurt Coleman is functional in the box as one starter, but on most teams he is a third safety. Unfortunately for Philly, the man they drafted ahead of Coleman to be the other starter, Jaiquawn Jarrett, has been bad enough that he might not make the final 53-man roster. He is slow to react and not fast enough to compensate once he does. In an act of borderline desperation, the Eagles signed OJ Atogwe after his body could no longer handle the job and he was cut by the even more safety-desperate Redskins. Perhaps he can cough up one of those fluky, old-guy revival seasons and make an impact on the field, but counting on him to be more than a great locker room guy is probably asking too much of Atogwe. Three years too late, Philly fans…
Special Teams: Last year marked a transition in specialists, as Alex Henery and Chas Henry took over for longtime stalwarts David Akers and Sav Rocca. Henery the kicker did a fine job in Akers’ stead, nailing 24 of his 27 kicks. He doesn’t have Akers’ deep FG range but was nearly as effective on kickoffs, and he comes much younger and cheaper. Henry the punter was a downgrade from Rocca, ranking in the bottom five in both gross and net punting and having one blocked. The Eagles brought in Mat McBriar to provide him competition, and as of press time it’s up in the air.
The return units should be better than they are, to be frank. Desean Jackson is too valuable to the offense to risk on returns, and he was disappointing last year anyways. Rookies Damaris Johnson and Brandon Boykin figure to be the primary return men going forward. Boykin was an exceptional open field dynamo at Georgia and looks to be the primary punt returner, with Johnson and perhaps Dion Lewis (if Johnson doesn’t make the team) sharing the kick duties with him. Akeem Jordan is a strong coverage ace, while hard-hitting reserve safety Colt Anderson flashed coverage acumen as well. ST Coordinator Bobby April is a near-legend and one of the most respected assistant coaches in the league, so expect overall improvement from the sagging units of a year ago.
Coaching: Andy Reid has been with the Eagles since 1999 and last season was just the third year he didn’t win more than eight games. Switching Juan Castillo from OL coach to DC in an abbreviated summer proved tragically unhip, as did tweaking the offensive blocking scheme with new line coach Howard Mudd. This year the staff got a full offseason to fully implement new changes and wrinkles, and continuity should help as well. The Eagles have long been very good at developing their own talent and filling holes internally, a credit to Reid’s teaching ability and syncopation with the front office. OC Marty Mornhinweg is in line to get another shot as a head coach, perhaps taking over for Reid when he has had enough.
This offseason was painful for Reid, as his son was found dead in the training camp dorm. The drug problems of his children are widely chronicled and have to weigh upon him heavily, but he has thus far soldiered on. While he has given no indication, there are many who speculate this is his swan song, and I count myself in that camp. That adds another dynamic to the team: win one for Coach Reid. It’s hard to say how this team would respond to that mantra, as Reid’s teams have wilted in the past under similar pressures.
Breakout player: Jeremy Maclin. While Maclin is highly regarded already, this is the season where Maclin steps into the top tier of wideouts around the league. Expect more than 70 receptions and a nice increase in his yards per reception than enables Maclin to top 1100 yards and eight TDs.
Forecast: Last year, I was one of the rare pundits that foresaw the flaws in Philadelphia and picked the Eagles to miss the playoffs. Nobody wanted to listen then, so I expect most people will think I’m crazy once again by picking this Eagles team to soar to 11-5 and the #2 seed in the NFC. I love the way the Eagles filled their gaping holes at linebacker and bolstered the defensive line. I love the offensive firepower and how it matches up against the defenses in the NFC East. I strongly believe the defense will be vastly improved as DC Juan Castillo grows into the job, and the secondary will play much better. That -14 turnover margin turns into even, or even better. The one drawback is Michael Vick’s fragility, but I think they will win enough with him to survive the 4 starts he misses. Philly goes 10-2 in the games Vick starts, and somehow ekes out one win in the four games he doesn’t. That’s good enough for 11-5, the NFC East title, and earning a playoff bye. Still crazy after all these years.