2011 Record: 8-8
Point Differential: -81
Turnover Margin: -11
Sack Differential: -1
Offense:
2011 Ranks
Rushing: 1st
Passing: 31st
3rd Down: 30th
Scoring: 25th
QB: Denver elected to make arguably the most dramatic change of direction between two performers at any one position in professional sports history, swapping out Tim Tebow for Peyton Manning. How that radical change works out will decide the fate of the entire team.
I am admittedly a huge skeptic of Peyton Manning at this point. Coming off three neck surgeries and another procedure designed to help make those surgeries work within the past year and at 36 years old, expecting Manning to be the Manning of his mid-00’s prime seems foolhardy. Even before his neck issues arose, Manning was showing slight signs of decline. On two different occasions in the 2010 season, I wrote about Manning not being as precise with his ball placement or able to manipulate the defense as he once did. Now he must learn a different offense with (mostly) brand new receivers in an outdoor stadium prone to snarky weather. I know I’m in the distinct minority, but I just don’t see this being a slam-dunk success like so many people espouse.
That’s not to say Manning won’t be a marked improvement over Tebow. Everything that Tebow is not and never will be--accurate, poised, blessed with vision, able to put roper pace and touch on every ball--is exactly what has made Peyton Manning one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. Manning’s pinpoint accuracy and touch on intermediate throws and his preternatural synchronicity with his wideouts on deeper throws are going to be shockingly divergent from the offense of a year ago. His ability to get rid of the football in a timely fashion helps the line, both statistically and in terms of building confidence. Manning is great at play action and holding the safety with his eyes, looking off a linebacker, pump faking an overzealous corner; in short, he’s still Peyton freaking Manning. But he’s the 2012 edition, not the 2006 edition, and there is absolutely a difference.
One awkward hit or nerve issue away from taking over this offense is second round rookie Brock Osweiler, a project many draftniks believed went at least three rounds too high. I actually like some things with Osweiler and believe that in a couple of years he might be an emerging starter, but I have zero doubt about this: if Brock Osweiler takes more than five snaps in any game this year because of injury to Manning, the Broncos will not win more than one out of five of those games. Should third stringer Caleb Hanie get the nod that number drops to zero. Last seen torpedoing the Bears chances when Jay Cutler got hurt, Hanie is a rifle-armed turnover machine who is great evidence that arm strength doesn’t mean everything when evaluating QBs.
RB: Has any RB ever had a quieter 1200 yard rushing season than Willis McGahee accomplished a year ago? McGahee’s rebirth in Denver at age 30 was truly remarkable. It’s also unlikely to be replicated again, not for a guy with his injury history and hard-charging style. He also benefitted from the unpredictability of Tebow, a legit running threat in his own right. McGahee thrived on taking handoffs out of the shotgun and on misdirection power runs, plays where Tebow’s presence held the linebackers in check and allowed McGahee to get a full head of steam before encountering defenders. It was just the second time in his career that McGahee topped 4.1 yards per carry, and he finished with just four touchdowns despite having several 20+ yard scampers and a strong 1st down conversion rate. I expect McGahee to still beat his career average yards per carry of 4.1 once again, but another 1200 yards and seven 100 yard outings is not likely to happen.
Knowshon Moreno appears to have played his way off the depth chart, a stunning fall for a 2009 1st round pick with tremendous potential. Injuries, lack of focus, and a perceived softness have put his roster spot in peril. Lance Ball and rookie 3rd rounder Ronnie Hillman have overtaken Moreno. Ball is a physical runner with good forward lean that is effective at taking what the defense offers, be it two yards or eight. He lacks breakaway speed and shiftiness, but he did show he can catch the ball and turn it up nicely. He’s the kind of reliable back coaches love to have around but leaves the fans generally wondering “isn’t there somebody better than him?” to do the job. To that end, the Broncos drafted Hillman out of San Diego State. Hillman has legit 4.4 speed and hits that top speed in a jiffy. He has the ability to cut outside on a dime and accelerate past tacklers, bringing the sort of juice the team wanted from Moreno. Where Hillman might make his biggest impact is as a receiver in the Joseph Addai role from Manning’s Colts. That’s a weapon which Manning can really use to carve up defenses and slow down blitzes.
I’ve always been a fan of Xavier Omon, but this is likely his last chance to make an impression and stick on an active NFL roster. The small school whiz has bounced around looking for a fit with his power-oriented game. His best shot here would be if McGahee or Ball gets hurt in preseason. Also in camp is former Oregon slasher Jeremiah Johnson, who might be gone by the time you read this.
Chris Gronkowski is nominally listed as the fullback, but this offense figures to not use a fullback much. Yes, he’s related to Rob and Dan and he spent last year with the Colts, where he got exactly zero touches. He did prove he belonged as a NFL player with Dallas the year before, and he should quickly earn Manning’s trust in pass protection.
WR/TE: The starting duo of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker is a good one. Both are 6’3” and over 215 pounds, both have big strong hands, and both have deceptive quickness off the line for bigger receivers. Thomas has great deep speed and the athleticism to make freakishly athletic receptions, which he often had to do with Tebow at the helm. He is best known for his long overtime touchdown stunner that knocked the Steelers out of the playoffs, but Thomas made big plays all year. He is a legit #1 receiver that commands attention from defenses, and with a more accurate passer that isn’t afraid to throw to the deep seam Thomas could wind up leading the league in receiving yards. Expect at least double his 32 receptions, 550 yards and four TDs of a year ago, and those numbers might be conservative if he and Manning click quickly and stay healthy together.
Decker proved to be an excellent clutch receiver a year ago, but his role in the retooled offense is largely up in the air. With Tebow throwing, Decker was largely relegated to running quick, shorter routes that took away from his strong second gear and ability to separate on intermediate routes. He flashed the ability to get deep when Kyle Orton (remember him?) was the starting QB, and he has potential to remind Manning of Austin Collie. Just as he did in college, Decker seems to wind up making big plays at key times.
After the top two, the pickings are slim. Former Bengals disappointment Andre Caldwell headlines the second unit, along with underwhelming Matt Willis. Both are the very definition of “average” in size, speed, route running, and ability, and that’s on their good days. The sycophants love reuniting Brandon Stokely with Manning, where Stokley had one career season…in 2004, when Thomas and Decker were both in high school. Clearly Stokley will know what Manning demands, but his oft-injured body sure seems unable to meet those demands any longer. Jason Hill also lingers on the depth chart after a disappointing stint in Jacksonville. Manning has a long history of making his receivers look a lot better than they are, and he’ll be forced to do that once again after the top two.
Tight ends Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen are both solid newcomers. Tamme worked with Manning in Indy and proved a solid checkdown option, pulling in 67 passes in 2010. He has enough sneaky speed to improve on his career 9.3 yards per catch average. Dreessen comes from Houston, where he was excellent as a red zone target and comfortable playing as the second tight end. He’s lither in the open field than Tamme but not as skilled a blocker. Look for the Broncos to have both on the field quite a bit. Their addition means two 2011 draft picks, Julius Thomas and Virgil Green, are fighting for the same roster spot. Thomas has been hurt quite a bit, so the physical Green figures to have the upper hand. He caught three passes as a rookie to Thomas’ one reception.
OL: Keeping Manning upright is the primary function of the line, and this group is well-suited to do just that. Rookie RT Orlando Franklin outplayed his 2nd round draft status, while a pair of players in their second seasons, center JD Walton and left guard Zane Beadles, matured together nicely. With excellent LT Ryan Clady looking fully recovered from knee problems, most of the line returns intact and potentially one of the best in the league.
Clady rounded into form about the time Tim Tebow took over the offense, and that tidbit is under looked when trying to explain Tebowmania last year. Clady struggled early with some holds and wasn’t a dominating run blocker for a man of his build and nasty temperament, but considering how long Tebow held onto the ball so often, his eight sacks allowed is not a bad figure at all. He is a Pro Bowl caliber pass protector when the quarterback understands that holding the ball longer than counting to “Three Mississippi” is asinine. Franklin was Tebow’s blind side protector, but he earned his keep as a devastating run blocker. Speed off the edge is going to give him trouble perennially--it’s why many draftniks were surprised he came off in the 2nd round and not later--but if he can at least dance with the defender for a step or two he’ll be fine with Manning at QB.
Walton and Beadles work nicely together inside, opening holes for the run and generally doing a reliable job of stymying up the gut pressure, at least initially. Walton is not in the class of the great young centers but he’s a solid starter and should work just fine with Manning. They will be joined in the starting lineup by Manny Ramirez, as Chris Kuper is out until at least late October with a broken arm. Ramirez last started for the Lions during their winless year and was the weakest link on that OL. Built like a refrigerator and with the lateral agility of one as well, Ramirez is a strong straight-ahead run blocker but struggles at every other aspect of playing guard. Walton’s successor at Baylor, 6th round rookie Philip Blake, is the only other viable interior option. Tony Hillis and former starter Ryan Harris provide some experienced depth.
Defense:
2011 Ranks
Rushing: 23rd
Passing: 20th
3rd Down: 8th
Scoring: 26th
DL: The endless tinkering up front continues, but this time I think the Broncos finally have a group of linemen that can play well against both the run and pass. A return to health from Ty Warren, who missed his first season in Denver with a triceps injury, helps solidify the interior against the run. He and Justin Bannan will start inside. Both are on the wrong side of 30 and more of the immovable object type of tackle than penetrators. Bannan returns after a year getting humbled in St. Louis, and he will be hard pressed to be as effective as the man he’s replacing, Brodrick Bunkley. Warren has missed all but one game the last two years with injuries. Consider the tackle situation a downgrade, and top reserve Kevin Vickerson is a space-filler coming off an injury of his own. I have high hopes for 5th round pick Malik Jackson, who showed some disruptive ability while at Tennessee, but it’s asking a lot for a mid-round rookie to do more than a handful of tackles in reserve duty.
Another rookie, 2nd rounder Derek Wolfe, has shot up the depth chart on a strong summer and will start at left end. A blue collar slugger with the ability to play both tackle and end, Wolfe played his way up draft boards at Senior Bowl week as well. Everyone keeps underestimating the Cincinnati product, who to be fair never put up big production or dominated in the Big East. With his size and leverage Wolfe should be able to anchor against the run, a real problem for the man he is replacing, Robert Ayers. He has never developed into the pass rusher the Broncos hoped he would become, and Ayers gets the vast majority of his tackles chasing down runs, not attacking them. He is a classic OLB/DE tweener, not fluid enough for the former and not stout enough for the latter.
The other end is Elvis Dumervil and he has but one job: pressure the passer. Dumervil does that job very well. Actually he has shown he can drop in coverage pretty well too, but he makes his multi-millions because he has 27 sacks in his last two seasons. After leading the league in 2009 with 17 sacks, Dumervil missed 2010 with a torn pec and there was legit concern he wouldn’t be his old self after the injury and in a new scheme. Though he’s under six feet tall, or about five inches shorter than the ideal pass rushing end, Dumervil has exceptional quickness and uses his lack of height to his advantage, ducking under blocks and getting great leverage. He has the versatility to play standing up as well, allowing new DC Jack Del Rio to mix in odd-man fronts if he desires. Expect at least 10 sacks and 18 QB pressures from Dumervil this year. There is no depth behind the top three, which keeps Ayers too valuable to cut but presents a real problem if someone gets hurt. Jeremy Beal is a practice squad player, while former starter Jason Hunter fit much better in the 3-4 front and made it a moot point by tearing his triceps.
LB: Reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Von Miller headlines the linebackers, and deservedly so. Miller outplayed expectations even for a #2 overall pick, racking up 11.5 sacks, seven tackles for loss, four PDs, and missing just one tackle despite flying all over the field making plays. He earned 2nd team All Pro honors, which very well might be the lowest he rates on that squad for the foreseeable future. If the Broncos get enough early leads, Miller could lead the league in sacks. Miller is a star, an impact performer from the second he stepped onto the field. His explosion and balance at full speed make him an incredibly effective pass rusher, and he uses his hands very efficiently to keep blockers at bay. He has the athleticism and confidence to play in space, and his instincts are that of a great middle backer.
On the weak side, DJ Williams is very good at racking up tackles and is strong in coverage. He can do everything well--tackle, cover, blitz, sniff out plays--but doesn’t make as many impact plays as some WLBs. Williams makes a good counterbalance to Miller, but there is a problem: he is suspended for the first six games as a result of failing a PED test from the lockout. He will be sorely missed, particularly because the schedule features several teams (ATL, HOU, NE, SD) with very good receiving tight ends. Undersized Wesley Woodyard will fill his shoes. Woodyard served mostly as the nickel backer last year and hangs his hat on tackling backs some five yards down the field and playing trail coverage well behind crossing routes. He seldom misses tackles but represents a significant downgrade overall.
Middle backer Joe Mays is a between-the-tackles run snuffer, and a good one at that. He lacks range outside the hashes and primarily comes off the field for passing downs, but in the base defense he is the player most responsible for holding the opponent to 4.3 yards per carry, down from 4.7 the year prior. He did bag 8 tackles for loss as well, equaling the amount of missed tackles on the books. The taller, younger Nate Irving will push Mays in camp and serve as the primary reserve inside as well as backing up outside as needed. Irving played almost exclusively on special teams as a 3rd round rookie in 2011 as he battled a litany of injuries, something that has carried over into camp this summer. Fellow 2nd year player Mike Mohamed is the other primary reserve, though he too is fighting preseason injuries and did not see live action as a rookie. Rookie Danny Trevathan piled up tackles at Kentucky but might not be big or sturdy enough to make it in Denver. They are desperate enough for quality depth that the Broncos signed Keith Brooking, about five years past his last competent season. If the ancient, creaky Brooking ever sees the field, it’s not a good sign.
Secondary: This unit remains in flux after last year’s youth movement produced mixed results. Corner Champ Bailey continues on his Hall of Fame caliber career, while safety Brian Dawkins finally ended his after 16 seasons.
Dawkins was clearly at the end, but he still offered solid run support and invaluable guidance both on the field and in the locker room. The Broncos knew this day was coming and planned ahead, drafting Quentin Carter and Rahim Moore in 2011. Carter proved the better selection even though he was a 4th rounder while Moore went in the 2nd. It seems the Broncos are hellbent on giving Moore a mulligan, but when you miss as many tackles and show as little range in coverage as he did, they’re probably better off sticking with the more reliable Carter. Not that the Oklahoma rookie was anything great, but he at least looked like he knew how to tackle someone rather than just hitting them. Former Browns veteran Mike Adams comes over in free agency to compete and provide mentorship. He lacks great range and size but reads plays quickly and has shown a knack for opportunism in coverage. If they want to go younger and bigger for depth, occasional starter David Bruton is the man. To indicate how little confidence they have in their safety depth, the team signed former Jet Jim Leonhard, who has ended each of the last two seasons with major knee injuries and is just 8 months off reconstructive surgery. That’s pure, unadulterated desperation, folks…
As mentioned above, Champ Bailey is a Hall of Fame corner when all is said and done. Unfortunately, the longer he plays the farther he gets from looking like one these days. Bailey used to be a legit shutdown corner, and the Broncos still deploy him as such, chasing opponents’ top receiver all over the field. Alas, Bailey is not that great anymore, merely solid these days; gone is the era of Bailey making 8 INTs and 60+ tackles. He’s 34 now and fought some nagging injuries over the past few years, so a precipitous decline is not out of the question.
The Broncos had better hope it’s not this year. After experimenting with has-been Andre Goodman and never-will-be Jonathan Wilhite, this year sees the Broncos importing two new veterans: Tracy Porter from New Orleans and Drayton Florence from Buffalo. Porter still signs his checks off his Super Bowl game-winning pick six off (cue ironic music!) Peyton Manning, though he has just two INTs the past two seasons and allowed an ugly catch rate last year. Florence was somewhat better, showing more short-range cover skills and more active run support. The run support is where the team is going to really miss Goodman, who was not as good as either import in coverage but remained one of the best, most aggressive run support corners in the league. If second-year player Chris Harris can build off a surprisingly bright rookie campaign, he should see more action. Harris showed a knack for anticipating routes and good timing on his contact with the ball in the air. I thought he showed legit potential going forward and it will be interesting to see where he winds up on the depth chart come September.
Special Teams: Matt Prater was the primary beneficiary of Tebowmania, kicking four game-winning field goals to cap off 4th quarter drives and a 59-yarder to force overtime in another. Prater earned the reputation of being one of the most clutch kickers around, though he was just 3-for-7 between 40 and 50 yards last year. Considering the thin Denver air adds about four yards of range to field goals, that number is a little disconcerting. Maybe he should treat every field goal as if it’s a game winner. Punter Britton Colquitt got a lot of action last year, and in the process set the NFL record for most punting yards in one season. His net metrics are decidedly average so it wasn’t like he was awesome, merely prolific. He should be average again but less prolific.
The return jobs are tenuously held by Eric Decker and Lance Ball, but both might prove too important to the offense to remain there. SydQuan Thompson and Matt Willis both have return experience from college and could inherit bigger roles this year, but unless someone unexpectedly breaks out this is not a team strength. Coverage units lack a legit ace but seldom give up big returns.
Coaching: John Fox proved his merit as a coach by steering a team with Tim Tebow at the helm into the playoffs and the unlikely upset of the mighty Steelers. His transformation of the defense and tweaking of his old system to fit his available talent deserve more credit than he got. Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy might need treatment for whiplash in going from tailoring an offense to Tebow to shifting to Peyton Manning. He’s a creative mind that understands how to play the cards he’s dealt, and he is not afraid to go for the kill shot in pressure situations. OL Coach Dave Magazu is a good one, consistently developing later-round talent into viable NFL starters in stints with Carolina and now here. New DC Jack Del Rio was last seen managing a disaster largely of his own doing in Jacksonville, but this is a nice step towards redemption. His defense did not quit despite a putrid offense a year ago and he has proven he can develop back seven talent. His track record is more conservative than his predecessor, new Raiders head man Dennis Allen.
Breakout player: Eric Decker. Once a featured performer on my annual pre-draft “Booms & Busts” column (as a boomer), Decker should see his receiving numbers skyrocket with a competent quarterback like Manning. As I mentioned above, Decker should at least double his 2011 performance and could reach 75 receptions for 1250 yards and eight TDs.
Forecast: When I took a gander at Denver’s schedule, my expectations for the team suddenly took a hit. The non-divisional road games are ATL, NE, CAR, CIN, and BAL--all teams I forecast to make the playoffs. HOU, NO, and PIT, all returning playoff teams, are also on the schedule, and the rival Chiefs should be a lot better too. For as much promise as Peyton Manning brings, the rest of the offense is largely the same unit that was one of the most inefficient in NFL history. The defense has questions on the back end and little depth anywhere. Even if Manning is the Manning of Indy’s Super Bowl triumphant season, this group will be fortunate to top 9 wins against this schedule. I don’t think Manning will be that awesome again, and I suspect he might miss a game or two along the way. The Broncos take a step back in Manning’s first year and finish a disappointing 7-9.