Thursday night kicks off the 3-day extravaganza known as the NFL draft. For those fans of lousy teams, this is often the happiest time of year. For the NFL movers and shakers, this is the season of sending covert messages and reading between lines that may or may not be blurred. Every year I like to throw some spaghetti at the wall and see what all sticks. Some of these are undercooked, some covered in sauce, and some will stick together nicely. 1. All the pre-draft hype about Jimmy Clausen and Dez Bryant plummeting in shock and embarrassment out of the top 20 will be proven foolish by the time the 12th pick is made. Remember last year when most everyone had Andre Smith in the 20s at this point in the process? I never moved him from #6 to the Bengals, and I based that on first-hand knowledge that teams don?t radically shift draft boards late in the process either. 2. Of the 32 1st round slots, just 15 of the selections will be picked by the teams currently occupying those slots, as of Monday afternoon. At least 8 of the 10 picks between 16-25 will be dealt--2 of those for 2011 first round picks as part (or all) of the compensation. And no picks above #7 will be dealt. 3. ESPN?s coverage will not go more than eight minutes without showing or mentioning Tim Tebow on Thursday. At least two near fistfights break out over how Tebow will fare in the NFL. For his part, Tebow will constantly grin and be congenial, which will only make haters in the live audience hate him and jeer more. He will be picked no later than #30 overall. 4. At least two fairly prominent current players will be dealt before Friday ends. Albert Haynesworth and Ben Roethlisberger will not be among them. A current Buffalo Bill will be one of them, and they will be on the receiving end as well, acquiring current Dolphins QB Tyler Thigpen. 5. The New England Patriots will trade out of every draft slot they currently occupy above the 6th round. They will select at least two players that, if the Raiders or Jaguars picked them would be soundly pilloried, but because it?s the Patriots they will be lauded for their ?innovative vision?...and one of those will wind up making New England look brilliant three years from now. 6. Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden will both froth at the mouth over every single quarterback taken after the 3rd round, pronouncing each and every one a ?potential future star? with ?great fundamentals? and ?outstanding intangibles?. At least half those QBs will fail to ever take a regular season snap, but it won?t stop either of those two from doing the exact same thing next year, either. 7. There will be great discussion about the critical importance of left tackles, and not once will these little tidbits ever get mentioned: the last 1st round tackle to win a Super Bowl was Tarik Glenn of the Colts, and the last Pro Bowl left tackle (not an alternate that got to go via injury, as Glenn was) to win a Super Bowl was Jonathan Ogden of the 2000 Ravens. Just three of the last 17 Super Bowl winners have featured a Pro Bowl left tackle; the only position with less Pro Bowl representation on Super Bowl winners is right guard, also with three. 8. Two players that most everyone expects to be first round picks that will fall to at least the 40s: Patrick Robinson and Jermaine Gresham. Two surprise first round picks that will visibly shake up Todd McShay: Chris Cook and Colt McCoy. 9. Most likely to have the Steve A. $mith draft coverage moment: Cris Carter. If you don?t know, $mith is a NBA writer (an excellent writer, btw) who during draft night coverage a few years ago was taken aback when the Seattle Sonics drafted Robert Swift in the middle of the first round. They were showing highlights of Swift in action and $mith had no idea that Swift was white, nor did $mith hide his disdain for Seattle choosing a gawky white teenager. 10. Most everyone agrees that the first four picks are pretty much set in stone. Here?s four others that I believe you can chisel as well, assuming the players are still available at that time: Joe Haden going #13, C.J. Spiller going #14, Rolando McClain going #15, and Ryan Mathews going #20. That last one assumes Kyle Wilson is off the board, however. I believe the Giants will trade up from #15 to ensure they can select McClain. 11. Speaking of Ryan Mathews, he has to be praying that Pittsburgh takes Kyle Wilson at #19. The Texans would prefer Wilson over him, and if Mathews doesn?t go to the Texans at #20 he could fall as far as Detroit?s pick at #34. The Chargers prefer Jahvid Best to fill their RB needs, though I don?t think they?re standing pat for a RB. 12. Over/under on the number of times Chris Berman mentions Brett Favre?s status: 27.5. Over/under on number of references to Mel Kiper Jr.?s hair: 12.5. Over/under on number of 1st round picks Gil Brandt successfully predicts: 28.5. If you have Sirius, you absolutely must mute the television and listen to Brandt, Pat Kirwan, and the other fine folks on Channel 124. 13. There will be just one kicker or punter selected before the 6th round, and it will be East Carolina punter Matt Dodge. This is the weakest year for specialists in a long time. 14. With Ernie Sims now in Philadelphia, you will be constantly reminded that the Lions no longer have one player on their roster that they drafted between 2002 and 2006. What you won?t hear is that they have drafted eight quality starters (nine if Kevin Smith comes back) in the last two years...and that?s before they take Ndamukong Suh. Granted I?m using the term ?quality? relative to the crappola that Matt Millen brought in, but the Lions are clearly on the way up. 15. Oakland will shock everyone once again by choosing a stud athlete in the first round much higher than anyone expected that player to go. But this year it won?t be as big of a reach when they select Taylor Mays. Don?t forget that Al Davis has a 30+ year hard-on for USC players, and Mays is the most physically freakish prospect I?ve ever seen. There?s your mock draft teaser, Michael... 16. Two teams that will trade up in the 1st round from their current picks: Philadelphia and Seattle. The Eagles will jump up and take a safety, likely Earl Thomas. Seattle will move up from their pick at #14 and ensure they get CJ Spiller; Miami at #12 makes them nervous enough about Spiller for Pete Carroll to deal with Jacksonville, which is desperate to trade down. 17. Number of times you will hear Chiefs GM Scot Pioli talked about as a highly successful prot?g? of Bill Belichick: at least three for every pick they make. Number of current NFL starters produced from Pioli?s last four draft classes beyond the first rounders (three in New England, one in KC): four--including two kickers, far and away the worst in the league of anyone choosing in all four years. Number of times you?ll hear that mentioned by ESPN: maybe one. 18. Two teams that few expect have much interest in quarterbacks will spend at least a 3rd round pick or higher on a QB: Cincinnati and New Orleans. The Bengals prediction is predicated upon them not trading for Jason Campbell, a deal I would make in a heartbeat but looks less likely with each passing day. 19. The Carolina Panthers will continue their tradition of dealing their first round pick from the following year, trading that pick to move up and select Colt McCoy in the last five picks of the first round. That might not seem like enough on its own, but bear in mind Carolina is widely viewed as being in the beginning stages of a rebuild and that ?11 pick could very well be in the top 5. 20. Three non-BCS names to watch for on Friday night, a lot earlier than most people think: Linval Joseph, DT, East Carolina; Torrell Troup, DT, Central Florida; Austen Lane, DE, Murray State. The #1 knock on all three is level of competition, and savvy GMs know that seldom limits defensive linemen with both athleticism and fundamentals, which all three possess. 21. Just because the Chicago Bears don?t have any selections in the first two rounds, don?t think that Bears fans have no reason to watch said rounds. As proven the past couple of years, GM Jerry Angelo has no qualms about dealing future #1 picks to jump up and take a player he wants. Packaging Greg Olsen can get them a few spots higher than just a 1st as well. Two names to keep an eye on for Chicago in the 25-40 range: Morgan Burnett and Devin McCourty. 22. Three players that were in every preseason top 50 prospect list will go undrafted: Trevard Lindley, CB, Kentucky; George Selvie, DE, South Florida; Greg Hardy, DE, Ole Miss. Someone needs to explain to me how a South Florida defense with Jason Pierre-Paul, Jerome Murphy, Nate Allen, and Kion Wilson--three top 50 picks and a top 150 pick, plus Selvie, could rank just 31st in scoring defense, tied with my NFL prospect-less (apologies to Thad Turner) Ohio Bobcats. Reminds me of NC State a few years back with Mario Williams, John McCargo, Manny Lawson, and Dajuan Morgan, which produced one stud and a whole lot of high-pick disappointment. 23. Two teams that are currently in the first round that I believe will not make a first round pick: Dallas and Minnesota. Fret not, Vikings and Cowboys fans, because the player pool between spots 20 and 50 is essentially interchangeable. 24. The draft value of high-character players such as Myron Rolle, Dominique Franks, Tebow, and Jordan Shipley will get them all selected at least 25 picks higher than they would go in a normal year based strictly on their on-field potential. Players with character questions that aren?t elite talents are going to be very disappointed with their draft slots--especially if Roethlisberger gets nailed with more than a 4-game suspension. Talent does not good when it can?t stay on the field, and even the Bengals and Raiders know and believe that. 25. My pick for Mr. Irrelevant this year is Steve Maneri, TE, Temple. Other picks I?ve seen in the pool I?m in: Antonio Brown, WR, Central Michigan; Keiland Williams, RB, LSU; Ramon Harewood, T, Morehouse; Noah Shepard, QB, South Dakota; and Kerry Meier, WR, Kansas.