RealGM Analysis
Baltimore Ravens:
2013 RECORD: 8-8
2012 RECORD: 10-6
2011 RECORD: 12-4
2010 RECORD: 12-4
Team Overview: Antoine Bolden. Sure, the Ravens needed to pay Flacco and sure they knew many solid players would be tough to retain, but the hasty decision to trade Bolden despite being not so far off in contract $$$ was the biggest blow to the team. Bolden is an amazingly sure-handed WR who made the big 3rd down catch all season long, and played lights out in the playoffs. His absence contributed to these Ravens not moving the chains as well and to Flacco’s sudden turnover tendencies. What looked like a train wreck last March did turn better by draft time as Baltimore drafted well and added some experienced talent once out of cap “jail”. Obviously, losing Ray Lewis hurt in more ways than one, but expectations are that these Ravens will not be in transition long. Always draft savvy, Baltimore added solid players to each level of the defense. All eyes are on the ’14 offense as both Joe Flacco as well as Ray Rice look to rebound off poor performances a season ago.
Key Stats: For at least the previous 19 years the run D has been super. The ’13 version continued their run at allowing under 4.0 per carry. The pass D% stayed stout at under 57% (4th). Opponents completed just 33% on 3rd down. The offense lagged behind. Baltimore allowed 48 sacks, tied for 29th. The overall offense was also 29th. The team had leveled off running the ball but hit a new low in ’13. They were last at 3.1 per carry and 30th at 83 yards per game. Joe Flacco threw 22 interceptions, causing the usually decent turnover ratio to slip to -5. Baltimore needs to reduce penalties after leading the NFL in that statistic in ’13. Spread-wise, Baltimore dropped to 10-2 off a bye, remained 13-6 as a MNF host, and by losing their final road game saw their spread record in that situation fall to 7-16.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: The biggest acquisition is solid WR Steve Smith. Baltimore lost OT Oher, FB Leach, TE Dickson, DE Arthur Jones, LB McClain and CB Corey Graham. All of these guys are decent but not elite. TE Owen Daniels could be a nice signing. Gary Kubiak is the new Offensive Coordinator and this is a good role for him.
2014 Draft: Baltimore is the best at letting the draft come to them. Many teams wanted to take away pick 17 but the Ravens were honed in on Mosley. Jernigan had value at 48 and so did Brooks at 76, largely due to the drop in talent at safety after this. Baltimore addressed most areas on my draft need board, yet failed to adequately address OL or DB! Remember, the run game was last in yards-per-carry in ’13. Was that wise?
Roster Analysis:
QB: Flacco hit 59% with a 19-22 ratio. He needs to play better than that.
RB: Ray Rice hopes new OC Kubiak’s zone blocking scheme is a success. Rookie Taliaferro adds needed depth.
WR: Steve Smith isn’t as physical as Boldin but a solid upgrade. Five players in total mean more depth than a year ago.
TE: Dennis Pitta played just four games in ’13. Owen Daniels and rookie Crockett Gilmore gives this team a solid TE unit.
OL: I like Jeremy Zuttah over incumbent Gino Gradkowski at OC. RT is the spot to watch and a possible weak link.
DL: It appears that NT Cody will start ’14 on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Nagata is elite but the overall unit is a bit thin. How fast can rookie DT Jernigan contribute?
LB: Deep, and 2nd year LB Arthur Brown and rookie CJ Mosley could eventually make this unit very impactful.
CB: An injury to Jimmy Smith could stunt progress in the secondary. The unit is decent but not top five or maybe top 10 decent.
Safety: Free safety is an issue as the rookie Brooks won’t likely be perfect out of the gate. Matt Elam has all-pro potential at SS but there is little to no quality depth.
Special Teams: This unit is deep all around and one of the NFL’s best.
Coaching: John Harbaugh is an above average head coach. DC Dean Pees is average at best. I like the promise of adding OC Gary Kubiak to the mix.
Team Keys: Joe Flacco was elite in the ’12 playoffs but prior to that he was a top 8-12 QB. Where will he be in ’14? Watch his QB% and the # of interceptions. The OL (especially RT) is a must watch area after allowing 48 sacks. Can they improve upon a putrid 3.1 yards-per-carry figure?
Did the preseason mean anything? Joe Flacco had his 3rd straight strong preseason but hopes the ’14 regular season will be kinder than it was a year ago. More interesting was the fact that all Raven RB’s were poor last August, leading to record lows in the ’13 season. The #’s were better now. For trivia buffs, the Baltimore Ravens have two WR’s named Smith, one named Jones and one named Brown. For the record these are the top WR’s on the team! Newcomer Steve Smith is ready to go, adding toughness to the unit. TE Pitta is healthy and so overall this should be a bounce-back season for the offense. Pass protection looks average. Baltimore was a whopping +10:09 in time of possession in August. That means the defense wasn’t on the field quite enough for my liking, yet it looks like LB’s Arthur Brown and rookie CJ Mosley got in enough work as they led the team in tackles. The concerns are a lack of depth along the DL and nagging injuries to many of the defensive backs. Rookie Michael Campanaro may return kicks although his punt return average was low. Sacks look about average. Baltimore was 4-0 in the preseason and hopes this momentum carries over to the regular season.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Ray Rice won’t play in weeks 1-2 but Baltimore hopes Bernard Pierce is ready to carry the load. Games 1-3 are vs. all of their AFC North rivals. They host Cincy 9/7 and Pittsburgh on Thursday, 9/11 so a 2-0 start would be very meaningful. They beat Cincy 44-13 the last time they opened vs. the Bengals. Any Baltimore-Pittsburgh game is brutal (and close), so having 10 days to recover is nice. Game #4 is hosting Carolina, and WR Steve Smith will be pumped up for that one. An early trap game might be 10/12 at Tampa. This one comes after a game at Indy and before a revenge game from ’10 in a host of Atlanta. The bye comes 11/16. The Ravens will have played nine games, and five of them will be vs. Divisional foes! In fact, the Ravens will not face Cincy or Pittsburgh after 11/2! I expect at least 6-4 before their late bye week, and 7-3 should be in play if the right side of the OL can protect Flacco and if Ray Rice returns to form. Games 11-12 are tricky. The Ravens travel to New Orleans for a Monday game and host San Diego the following Sunday. San Diego will want revenge for the 4th and 26 “miracle” run by Ray Rice which ultimately was the biggest reason why the Ravens even had a chance to get to and win the Super Bowl. The goal is to split these games. Games against Miami (12/7, at Miami) are usually close. December is manageable, with the Ravens facing far easier QB’s late (Jacksonville, Houston, Cleveland). These teams went 10-38 in ’13.
Bottom Line: Baltimore looks like a better team now and won’t have to improve much over 8-8 to make the playoffs. I’ll be watching the play of the young LB’s, the health of the secondary and the progression of Joe Flacco. He may get sacked some but Pitta and Steve Smith elevate the aerial game and I fully expect Joe to get his completion % over 60. I see 9-7 if they can start at least 3-1 and more than that if they can avoid losing the trap games on their schedule.
Key Games: 9/7 vs. Cincy, and the two trap games, 10/12 at Tampa and 11/9 hosting Tennessee. Cincy has two new coordinators. A loss at home to start the season erases the memory of a solid August. Baltimore has a good shot to be more than 2-2 in games vs. Cincy and Pittsburgh. Still, going 2-2 works if they take care of business at Tampa and home to Tennessee.
Handicapping Tip: The Ravens are 5-14 against the spread as a non-Divisional road favorite. Tampa on 10/12 might be a home dog and remember that game is not one where I expect the Ravens to be focused.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 27.5
Cincinnati Bengals:
2013 RECORD: 11-5
2012 RECORD: 10-6
2011 RECORD: 9-7
2010 RECORD: 4-12
Team Overview: In Detroit, I often refer to the “good” Matthew Stafford as well as the “bad” Matthew Stafford. He is not alone. Andy Dalton has days where he looks special, but on other days he looks like Carson Palmer. He’s the field general of a Bengal team that is as deep as it’s ever been thanks to an incredible (for them) run of solid drafts. Almost no position is below the level of average and this team is young and still has upside. In addition, the AFC is hardly as scary as the NFC, especially at the top. Cincy’s somewhat surprising playoff loss to SD underscores the fact that much more needs to be accomplished before they can be taken seriously. While nothing less than at least one playoff win will be tolerated in ’14, Cincy faces additional challenges with the loss of both coordinators. It’s time for Dalton to take the next step. In fact, it’s essential that he do so if Cincy is to be successful in ending the NFL’s longest playoff victory drought (23 years).
Key Stats: RB Green-Ellis was joined in the backfield by change of pace rookie Bernard in a solid move yet the yards-per-carry # was still too low at 3.6. The OL made great strides in protecting Dalton by reducing sacks from 46 to 29. The team was more than playoff worthy with over 1,000 more total yards than their opponents, 22 more TD’s and a +4:01 time of possession figure. Cincy’s well-coached D was #2 in yards per attempt, #3 in total defense and on 3rd down allowed about a 33% conversion rate. They also allowed just six run TD’s. Spread-wise, Cincy is most dangerous at home in December when OUT of the playoff chase (2-3 in ’11-12 when IN the playoff race) but in ’13 they went 3-0 against the spread in December. Cincy is usually a well below average home favorite prior to December but was 3-0 in this role in ’13. They went 8-0 vs. the spread at home until the playoff loss.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Cincy is normally not a big spender in free agency. OG Newhouse might be a nice addition. LB Dontay Moch was waived by Arizona and signed by the Bengals. Losses include starting OT Collins and OC Kyle Cook, and good DE Michael Johnson. Hue Jackson once took one of the worst all time offenses in Oakland to top five status in one year. He replaces Jay Gruden as Offensive Coordinator. Former LB coach Paul Guenther has big shoes to fill, taking over for star defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer.
2014 Draft: It was quite clear that Cincy wanted a CB early in this draft. The Bengals have to be thrilled that press CB Dennard slipped to them at 24. It’s now also very clear that Cincy wants to upgrade from RB Green-Ellis. They could have chosen RB Hyde but decided to take a risk with Hill. They are close in on-field talent but Hill has plenty of off-field baggage. DE Clarke is the (hopeful) answer to losing Michael Johnson via free agency. This following might be the single most amazing statement from this draft. The Cincy Bengals traded up in this draft for only the 3rd time in the past 47 years! Think about that! 47 drafts, and there used to be double digit rounds. We’re not talking the 1st round, but all rounds! Unfortunately, the trade was unnecessary and the player chosen was a lower rated center. OL, LB and WR were on the need board, but Cincy did not live up to past standards and chose the wrong players. They should have addressed LB earlier. WR Wright was a reach in a draft full of WR talent. The draft after round two lacked value and impact.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Andy Dalton is a fine QB but has limitations as far as cracking a top 10 list.
RB: Giovani Bernard and rookie Jeremy Hill represent the future at RB, with reliable and fumble free Green-Ellis likely seeing his last year of action as a Bengal.
WR: AJ Green has cracked the top 3 in the NFL. Sanu is the underneath presence. Marvin Jones has been surprisingly solid, but has an undisclosed injury that needs to be checked. Cincy blew a chance at adding talent in this all-time great WR draft.
TE: Gresham and Eifort form a solid combination. Decent back-up Orson Charles may be the odd man out.
OL: Four of five spots are at least solid, but center is an issue which is why they drafted Bodine. Sacks allowed will go up.
DL: Geno Atkins comes off IR but the other three starters are just average. Let’s see if rookie DE Clarke and 2nd year DE Hunt can contribute a bit earlier than expected.
LB: Maualuga and Burfict are heady players but not big contributors in the offensive backfield. Free agent pickup Moch can help but the unit lacks a true 3rd starter.
CB: Better at CB with Dennard, Newman and Adam Jones, and the upside is even higher if ’12 draftee Kirkpatrick can improve. Is Kirkpatrick ready to be a full time starter in year #2? Leon Hall may start ahead of Kirkpatrick and Dennard.
Safety: Nelson remains serviceable. Taylor Mays is best used as a nickel DB. George Iloka was undervalued by my standards on draft day and starts, but is not elite by any means. Daniel Manning adds depth.
Special Teams: The unit is decent but not spectacular in any area. The need return specialist Tate to make the final cut.
Coaching: New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is going to be just fine, if not even better than that. New DC Paul Guenther must be constantly evaluated. How much will the defense miss Mike Zimmer?
Team Keys: Cincy is awful in prime time games. When can that change? I’m worried about offensive pass protection and defensive sacks trending bit down. Will fumbles increase if they phase out RB Green-Ellis? Check how well Geno Atkins bounces back off a torn ACL and how the new DC performs.
Did the preseason mean anything? Cincy’s offense was pretty good in August. Surprisingly, RB Bernard ran poorly at 20-49 but rookie Jeremy Hill ran 41-190. Dalton was over 70% and took none of the eight sacks allowed by the OL. AJ Green caught 10 and Mohammad Sanu 7 as he tries to rebound from a sophomore slump. Blowing the chance to add one or more rated WR’s in the deep ’14 draft has made the unit somewhat thin. TE’s Gresham and Eifert are solid but continue to be underutilized. Defensively, the run D was a bit off but I like the effort from Hunt and others resulting in 12 defensive sacks. I believe the thinnest unit is LB but overall the Bengals have talent to spare. Special teams play is steady.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Like Baltimore, Cincy looks ready to start ’14. They have not fared well at Baltimore but stealing a win there on opening day would be ideal. Atlanta is potent offensively and could give Cincy a challenge 9/14. The Bengals have the early bye, giving them a huge scheduling advantage (14 vs. 6 days) when they travel to face New England. Can they focus the next week when hosting Carolina? This now more veteran team should be able to achieve 3-3 prior to a winnable three game home stand vs. Baltimore, Jacksonville and Cleveland. Unfortunately, that is immediately following by road games at New Orleans, Houston and Tampa. How is life without Mike Zimmer calling the defensive signals? Can they get to 7-5 before December? Here is the December slate: Pittsburgh (11-20 record as a host), at Cleveland (50%), home on MNF to Denver and Peyton Manning and at Pittsburgh. Playing Pittsburgh twice in December is not ideal as the Steelers are usually on their game by this time. The Bengals need to build up some equity before the calendar turns to December.
Bottom Line: 8-8? That sure seems low for a team with no glaring weakness, and will be low if they steal a win right out of the gate. I like Dalton as a top 10-15 type QB and the offense will be fine. I like the ’14 sack ratio projection. On paper they appear dead even with Baltimore. I’m concerned about fumbles and even more concerned about how they handle the prime time schedule. No, I wouldn’t be surprised if they exceeded this projection.
Key Game: There are so many it’s hard to isolate one, but 9/14 vs. Atlanta stands out. This will be a great test of their defensive prowess in the post Mike Zimmer era.
Handicapping Tip: The spread loser of the initial game vs. Pittsburgh is 20-9 vs. the spread in meeting #2. In this case, a Cincy win 12/7 would set them up for a spread loss 12/28 as the Steelers are 18-6 vs. the spread in the final game of the season.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 28
Cleveland Browns:
2013 RECORD: 4-12
2012 RECORD: 5-11
2011 RECORD: 4-12
2010 RECORD: 5-11
Team Overview: Welcome to stupid! That is what I wrote 25 months ago and what I repeated 12 months ago when beginning to compile the ’13 draft report. Going into last year’s draft I felt that these Browns had a chance to compete in the AFC North, certainly a Division in transition. Instead, Cleveland never fully participated in the draft, missing a golden opportunity. Like other “experts”, I questioned the draft team of Banner and Lombardi, two well below standard talent evaluators. Once again they underperformed. Honestly, how did they expect their new coach to win given the opening day roster? Remember, Cleveland did not even have a kicker until 48 hours before the season started! Cleveland begins ’14 with yet another new coach, as beleaguered owner Haslam never gave Rob Chudzinski and his decent coordinators a chance. This will be their 9th head coach since ’99! Cleveland is 26-70 the past six seasons and have lost 10 games or more in all but one of the last 11 seasons. Did the new regime make the right moves and close the gap in the AFC North? The answer is yes, and no. This was the deepest draft I’ve covered (37 of them) and the Browns at one time had 11 picks in this draft. They ended up drafting just six players! At least the six guys they got had some nice ratings (see below).
Key Stats: Offensively, Cleveland scored 308 points a year after scoring 302, and two years after scoring far less than that (13.5 per game). The run O actually improved without traded RB Richardson (4.0) but was still low at 86.4 per game. They scored just four rush TD’s. Sacks allowed were high at 49, with their collection of QB’s mostly to blame. The “new” Cleveland Browns had their best ever run D figures in their history, at 111-3.9. One area not perfect defensively was the high 44.5% conversion rate on 3rd down for their opponents. Overall however the Brown’s total D (total yards allowed) came in 9th.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Offensively, only Brian Hoyer is left at QB. Ben Tate is an instant upgrade at RB. Troubled WR Davone Bess was released, replaced by Nate Burleson. OG Shawn Lavano left. Defensively, Carlos Dansby is a good player but why not just re-sign younger LB D’Qwell Jackson? Adding Donte Whitner does not quite make up for losing solid safety T.J. Ward. Mike Pettine is the new Head Coach. He’s had a successful, though short career as a defensive coordinator. Kyle Shanahan and his “less than outstanding” ability to work well with others is the new offensive coordinator. Co-conspirator’s Banner and Lombardi were axed early in ’14. The young and very self-confident Ray Farmer is the sole GM.
2014 Draft: Cleveland barely participated in the ’13 draft but that, coupled with the fortuitous trade of RB Trent Richardson set them up with seven of the first 127 picks in this deep draft. The trade with Buffalo was grand larceny but cost them WR Watkins. That could have been fixed later but in a shocking move the Browns ignored WR completely! In the end, Richardson and pick 83 got them Johnny Manziel. Kirksey fit a need though I’m not 3rd round high on him. Cleveland traded up to get a promising RB and got lucky when no one traded up to get Desir, the next best CB on the board. As a result, Cleveland was able to double up at CB. Amazingly, Cleveland was done after this, with 129 picks left in this DEEP draft. Why? NOTE: Cleveland added my 10th rated QB, Shaw, and my 14th rated RB, Crowell after the draft. Shaw has the makings of a good NFL back-up with a never say die attitude, although he stands just 6’ tall and lacks true athleticism. Crowell has off-field issues. When motivated he is a top tier RB who can start in the NFL. Cleveland also added WR Snead (Ball St.). He was unrated but the Browns needs help at WR and though slow he was seemingly always open playing with drafted QB Keith Wenning.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Brian Hoyer has a limited body of work. The dynamic, but undisciplined Johnny Manziel is way too young. Growing pains?
RB: Tate seems like an upgrade over Richardson but he’s never been the true feature guy. Dion Lewis and a very interesting rookie, Terrance West are the back-ups.
WR: Former supplemental draftee Gordon “should” be facing a minimum eight game suspension, but so far nothing has been done. Nate Burleson, Travis Benjamin, Miles Austin and Earl Bennett are the choices otherwise.
TE: Jordan Cameron took everyone by surprise, but here is the real breakdown. In games 1-8 he was 49-596-6. In games 9-15 he was 26-252-3. He was 5-69 in the meaningless last game vs. then 7-8 Pittsburgh. There is no other viable TE option.
OL: USA Today said both OG spots needed upgrading. Rookie Bitonio alled two sacks in 2,054 career college snaps and probably starts on day one. John Greco might be the other OG by default. The rest of the OL is just fine.
DL: I like Phil Taylor in a 3-4 alignment. The line may not be elite but is easily serviceable.
LB: Dansby joins Paul Kruger and Jabeal Sheard to make three of the four LB spots pretty solid. Situational sacker Mingo helps, but the full time ILB vacancy is being filled by the very average Craig Robertson. Rookie Kirksey provides a challenge.
CB: Joe Haden is an all-pro but Buster Skrine is just another body. Rookies Gilbert and Desir add depth and in Gilbert’s case, hopefully he unseats Skrine at some point soon. ’13 rookie CB McFadden fits the nickel role.
Safety: TJ Ward is will be missed. Free agent Whitner is a step back, and SS Gipson is a marginal starter. Only the raw, but somewhat instinctive Jordan Poyer backs them up. This is an area of concern.
Special Teams: Cundiff hit 21-26 but was a step back from Dawson. Gilbert could upgrade the return game.
Coaching: Mike Pettine has had a short ascension to the top, but he’s well regarded defensively. Why he chose Kyle Shanahan to be the offensive coordinator puzzles me. Pettine brought his Buffalo LB coach with him to Cleveland to be the new OC.
Team Keys: Offensively, QB, RB and WR play will all have to be closely monitored. How does the point O rise? Can the solid OL protect for these raw QB’s? The team has won just once in their last 22 road games when an underdog. At what point can they get over this hump?
Did the preseason mean anything? Cleveland’s week four performance saved them from entering this season with some really poor numbers. Still, Hoyer and his three game NFL sample size hit just 54.5% in August. As for Manziel, he performed as expected by making more splash plays, good and bad. He was under 51% with 6 sacks taken. Can Ben Tate carry the workload? He was an efficient 4.0 in August. Reserves West (rookie, 2.7) and Crowell (UFA, 7.0 but very raw) are very likely to need plenty more seasoning. With Gordon suspended, the WR group is as follows: Miles Austin (3 catches); Andrew Hawkins (5’7”, 8 for 76); LaRon Byrd (0); Travis Benjamin (1 catch, return specialist, not 100%; Taylor Gabriel (5’8”, complete unknown 10-128). This was the deepest draft ever for WR’s. Thanks for not participating! TE Cameron was a fine 19-187 in the three games Hoyer was at QB, but he was also 31-321 in game 9-16 last year so his fast start could not be sustained. All defensive #’s were decent, although Cleveland only recorded six sacks. I do think the combination of Mingo and Kruger will up that during the season and the interior of the DL might repeat their decent run D performance of ’13. Under then DC Horton that figure was easily their best ever. The team lacks depth but the starters can play and CB Joe Haden is elite. The return game should be fine. The kicking game is average at best.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Cleveland underachieved in ’13 thanks to ignoring the draft and having spotty QB play. There is no grace period in ’14 as the Browns face Pittsburgh twice, New Orleans, Baltimore and Tennessee in games 1-5. The road opener at Pittsburgh is just the 2nd time in 16 years that they open on the road. Of course since they only won once at home during that time span why not try the road? Some analysts dislike the placement of their week four bye, but I like it for two reasons. First, games 1-3 are so tough that the Browns will need a break and second, new coaches with early byes have a chance to regroup and make scheme and practice schedule changes before it is too late to do so. The game is fast for rookies in the NFL and just as fast for rookie head coaches. Yes, they play 13 in a row without a break, but most of the games are Sunday at 1:00PM, enabling them to get into a nice routine. Cleveland plays only one team who had a winning record in ’13 in games 4-12. The Browns hope to be at least 3-2 if not better than that in games 6-10 which are at Jacksonville, home to Oakland and Tampa, at Cincy and home to Houston. December is much tougher as they face a trio of double digit win teams and close at always tough Baltimore, where they have lost 10 of the last 11 games.
Bottom Line: I applaud this organization for gutting the GM and his cohorts but they’ve missed golden opportunities to add even more talent in these past two drafts. Is Hoyer the guy? Can Ben Tate carry the load? How about Miles Austin, the only true WR on this team? The best I can see is 5-6 heading to a game at Atlanta, and 7-9 if they steal a win at home vs. Cincy, a team that they are near 50% against at home. More than likely the record will be worse than that, especially if the offense cannot contribute.
Key Game: 9/21 vs. Baltimore. Most likely the Browns lose at Pittsburgh and home to New Orleans. Baltimore has 10 days to prepare for Cleveland and has won here before but Cleveland did upset them last year. 0-3 before the bye would not be a good start, but two weeks off at 1-2 would be a confidence boost. Handicapping Tip: I don’t have any long term indicators for this team as they are now working on their 9th new head coach since 1999! The setup on 10/12 at home vs. Pittsburgh is pretty good.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 20.5
Pittsburgh Steelers:
2013 RECORD: 8-8
2012 RECORD: 8-8
2011 RECORD: 12-4
2010 RECORD: 12-4
Team Overview: Pittsburgh is in very unusual territory, coming off back to back non-winning seasons. Never one to start fast in September, there just was too much ground to make up following close losses to Baltimore and hosting Miami. A team like the Steelers just needs to get into the playoffs and except for two blown referee calls in the SD-KC game these Steelers would have actually made the postseason. Once there, it would NOT have surprised me to see them do some major damage, just like other lower playoff seeds have done in recent times. No other NFL team has been successful in succession planning for as long as Pittsburgh has, but recent drafts have not quite been as powerful as in the past. Since the Steelers are one of a few teams that shies away from the free agency market, the draft and young player development becomes absolutely critical. At 1st glance, the ’14 draft might pay more immediate dividends as compared to the recent past. It’s playoffs or bust for ’14.
Key Stats: The Steelers were just 0-2 in games decided by three points or less, but combined with ‘12’s 3-5 mark the close games are not going their way. In games 1-8 Pitt had a -13 turnover ratio, a 13-32 sack ratio and an over 61% pass D. All three of these numbers are not even close to past Steeler performance! In addition, the run O was 3.5-73.5 and the run D was 4.25-131. What was going on? Pitt finished 6-2, and the numbers showed why. The turnover ratio was +7. The sack ratio was 21-11. The pass was 181-329, or about 55%. The run O remained about 3.5 but at 100 yards per game. The run D was 184-819 and that is awfully high for a team used to being in the top three. In the end the Steeler pass D% was 5th best. One area that must improve is defensive interceptions. Pitt had 10 in ’13 and that has been about their norm. Spread-wise, Pitt is a good bounce back team, going 23-9 off a 20+ point loss (1-0), 24-10 (1-1) off back-to-back spread losses, and 25-10 (1-0) at home off a home loss. They are 25-16 on MNF not counting a 2-5 road favorite record, 56-39 (2-3) as a non-Divisional home favorite and 18-6 in home finales. On the negative side, they dropped to 6-20 in road openers. They remain 2-12 as a road favorite of more than 3 points but were 0-2 at exactly -3 in ’13. Pitt improved to 22-34 (2-1) off back-to-back straight up and spread wins, and 14-32 (3-0) after scoring over 30 points. Their overall spread situations hit well over 60% in ’11, and 9-5 with an 8-8 record in ’12 but dropped to 10 of 22 last year for their 1st below average figure.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Pitt never big player in free agency but this year they made more moves than usual. The offense added RB Blount and WR’s Lance Moore and Darius Heyward-Bey. They lose WR’s Cotchery and Sanders and these two combined for 113-1342-16 TD’s! LB Moats will be a reserve, but DL Cam Thomas and safety Mike Mitchell may have to start. Rotational DL Hood and Woods left, as did starting LB Woodley and starting safety Ryan Clark.
2014 Draft: LB Shazier was rapidly becoming a 1st round target for many teams. It’s unclear as to whether or not they wanted CB Fuller (went at 14), but I believe Shazier was drafted because the severe injury to ’12 draftee Spence left a void Pittsburgh was anxious to fill. It has been well documented that Pittsburgh has been aging along the DL. Tuitt has value at 46 and fits the #1 need. Gadget WR/RB Archer is the modern version for Pittsburgh’s Randle-EL but was drafted a round too early. Pittsburgh has a longstanding nasty habit of selecting lower rated developmental CB’s. They have not taken a CB in the 1st round sine ’97 and this was the year to do so! The Steelers added some semblance of talent throughout the draft but failed miserably at CB and safety and ignored the need for RB speed (unless Archer shifts to that spot). I’d have taken CB Dennard at #15 and a higher rated OL at #97, waiting on Archer. NOTE: Pittsburgh added * rated DE Mauro and * rated LB Howard Jones after the draft. Mauro has rotational value. He’s not a sacker and lacks flexibility but is a physical tackler. Jones (Shepard College) was a college DE with speed but he’s too undersized to stay there. He’s a project.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Ben Roethlisberger is my 5th best NFL QB. The backups remain a liability.
RB: MSU RB Bell was 800-3.5-8 as a rookie (late start). Blount adds power. Will they get suspended (stupidity)? That’s it.
WR: Moore and Wheaton hope to replace Sanders and Cotchery behind Brown. Heyward-Bey + raw rookie Bryant add depth.
TE: Heath Miller is more than solid. Everyone else is more of a filler type (i.e. short use role player).
OL: DeCastro and Pouncey are strong. Four others have solid experience but are average. Is Beachum really a LT? The line is beginning to come together but is not going to be listed among the top 10.
DL: Pitt’s transition plan has gained steam. Tuitt and Cam Thomas are in. Heyward is good. NT McLendon has issues. Thin?
LB: The decent group may include ’13 draftee Jarvis Jones and rookie Shazier. The back-ups are not great. Will Spence play?
CB: Ike Taylor and William Guy return, but is Guy that good? Cortez Allen is the only other option in a fairly weak group.
Safety: Polamalu may be on his last legs. Either the average Mike Mitchell or 2nd year safety Shamarko Thomas will join him.
Special Teams: Suisham delivered in ’12 and ’13. Rookies Bryant and Archer might wrestle away returning chores from the too valuable Antonio Brown. Archer had just two kick returns in college in ’13, but it was with a 62 yard average.
Coaching: Tomlin is well above average. LeBeau is in the Hall of Fame. OC Haley is a lightning rod but production is improving.
Team Keys: Almost an exact repeat of last year. The keys are clear. Their names are NT McClendon, CB Cortez, the #2/#3 WR’s and OC Haley. NT is always critical in this scheme. McClendon may not talented enough? Is Cortez ready to be a starter? Gay and Cortez are experienced in the system but individually they are well below par for starting CB’s. Can Lance Moore and Wheaton assist Brown in the pass scheme? Can OC Haley co-exist with Big Ben? It looks like they are doing a better job together but it could all fall apart. I’d like to see the run O rise above 3.5 per carry. Can new OL coach Mike Munchak make a difference? Is there any way Pittsburgh sheds its image of a slow starter?
Did the preseason mean anything? No team wants to play Pittsburgh late in the season but everyone likes to play them in September and October. The Steelers started 0-3 in ’13 and this August they scored just 14 points per game. In just the four preseason games they were -34 in 1st downs, had a 3.4 to 4.3 rush ratio, a 6-12 sack ratio and allowed 63% defensively. Big Ben looked decent but I do expect their usual 40 or so sacks allowed. RB’s Bell and Blount combined to go just 34-109 and that is not a good sign. The good news is that all WR’s and TE Miller look improved over ’13. Rookie LB Ryan Shazier will start alongside 2nd year LB Jarvis Jones and veterans Worilds and Timmons, making this unit the best on their defense. The DL is a worry. I noted last year that NT McLendon would not be the answer. Pittsburgh hopes one of the very young rookies takes over in the long run but they felt compelled to bring back DL Keisel a week ago even though he’s hardly in football shape. Dick LeBeau is an excellent coach and teacher but his secondary is aging and there has never been a viable succession plan. Dri Archer has potential in the return game. The punter is average.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Pittsburgh has a decent schedule but face the challenge of navigating through five prime time games as well as being the ONLY NFL team with four sets of back-to-back road games. Opening hosting Cleveland “should” be a win, but to be honest I’m not sure this team is 100% ready once again this September. Baltimore looks more ready and hosts them on 9/11 (Thursday). Games involving these two teams are the best in the NFL (yes, even slightly ahead of SF-Seattle). They will have 10 days to regroup before going to Carolina. The next set of consecutive road games will find them favored at Jacksonville and Cleveland. On paper this looks easy enough but in reality this team has struggled mightily in October road games. After a nice three game home stand Pittsburgh travels to face the Jets and Titans. There is an extra day between trips to the Jets and the Titans as that Titan game is on Monday night. The bye week is late, coming November 23rd. The only tough road trip comes in December. Pittsburgh comes off a home game vs. New Orleans before traveling to Cincy and Atlanta. Closing games are at home to KC and Cincy.
Bottom Line : Is this the year Pittsburgh gets off to a better start? The toughest stretch prior to December is vs. Houston (Monday night), Indy and Baltimore (Sunday night), but all three games are at home! The NFL scheduled both Baltimore-Pittsburgh games in prime time, perhaps due to the fact that nine of the last 11 meetings have been decided by three points or less. Pittsburgh’s Monday game at Tennessee is the only time they play away from the Eastern Time zone! Last year I warned readers that trap games at Oakland and at Miami would be very difficult. Pittsburgh lost both games. Win one of these and this dangerous team makes the ’13 playoffs. The Steelers might be favored on the road about five times this season. Focus might be an issue once or twice, but the only real trap game is facing Atlanta on the road in December after traveling to Cincy but given the time of year I don’t think the game really qualifies as a trap. Despite offensive woes, my biggest concerns are the age of the DL and the talent and age in the secondary. I see them 2-2 before heading to Jacksonville and Cleveland, but no better than 3-3 and no better than 5-4 after their three game home stand. If they split road games at the NYJ and Tennessee and win as expected in games 15-16 the record would be 8-5 not counting games hosting New Orleans and at Cincy and Atlanta. It sure would be nice if Pitt played better this October and entered these games with more than 6 wins.
Key Games: 10/5 and 10/12 on the road at Jacksonville and Cleveland. Win both of these games and the AFC North race will be wild in December. Parts of this team look better than their rivals, but Baltimore and Cincy have no real weak areas and Pittsburgh has a few more concerns, especially related to the secondary and the DL. Handicapping Tip: Pittsburgh is 2-12 their last 14 against the spread as a road favorite of over 3 points and is 8-18 as a road favorite in October. These “demons” must be met head on in those aforementioned October road games.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 27