Running Backs

Tier 1: LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Matt Forte

Tier 2: Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Montee Ball, Andre Ellington, Alfred Morris, Doug Martin

Tier 3: Giovani Bernard, Zac Stacy, Reggie Bush, CJ Spiller

Tier 4: Toby Gerhart, Bishop Sankey, Ryan Mathews, Rashad Jennings, Frank Gore

Tier 5: Chris Johnson, Joique Bell, Ray Rice, Ben Tate, Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley, Trent Richardson

Tier 6: Carlos Hyde, Terrance West, Knowshon Moreno, Maurice Jones-Drew, Pierre Thomas, DeAngelo Williams, Darren Sproles, Darren McFadden

Tier 7: Tre Mason, Bernard Pierce, Fred Jackson, Danny Woodhead, Lamar Miller, Khiry Robinson, Mark Ingram, Jeremy Hill, Chris Ivory, Christine Michael, Jonathan Stewart, Donald Brown, Shonn Greene, James White

* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP. 

Analysis

The days where you could rely on one or two RBs to carry your team to the playoffs sit firmly in the past. Sure, the RBs in tier 1 could have monster seasons, but do any of them give you that bet-your-house confidence that an LT or Priest Holmes did not too long ago? The landscape for NFL running backs has changed, and you must adapt as well with your approach in building your fantasy team.

No shocker, the tier 1 crew provides the safest ROI, and if you’ve got a chance to grab one of them with your first round pick, you should do so. Once the top tier group is off the board, it gets a bit trickier. The tier 2 guys come with additional risk, whether it’s injury history or absence of long track record. You’ll note that I’ve got Zac Stacy lower than most other draft boards.  My concerns are twofold: Stacy ‘s running style tends to lead to nagging injuries, and behind him sits a very skilled runner in Tre Mason, who could force his way into carries (and possibly run away with the starting job if Stacy has to sit out a few week or more). So I have enough concerns about Stacy to drop him into RB2 status.

How should you strategize with respect to RBs? As mentioned, if you can grab a tier 1 RB, lock him down. If not, then grab one from tier 2 when the value feels right, and don’t shy away from grabbing your second RB also from tier 2 or from tier 3. In any case, also try to grab at least one upside player (such as one from the quartet referenced below) and keep a very close eye on the waiver wire this season, as useful RBs will emerge as the season goes on. Ultimately you need to balance out your risk, so don’t go all in with injury/youth risks. For example, if you grab Montee Ball, don’t pair him with Bishop Sankey as your top 2 RBs; instead, pair Ball with someone like Reggie Bush, from whom you know what you will get. If you get a tier 1 RB, you’ve got more room to roll the dice with upside guys with your other RBs. But re-iterating again – keep an eye on the wire during the season, and balance out your risk.

Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:

Le’Veon Bell: Bell had a strong rookie campaign last season and serves as the bell-cow rusher for the Steelers. Importantly, Bell also factors into the passing game, as evident by his 45 receptions last season. With the Steelers’ line figuring to improve due to the return of Maurkice Pouncey from injury and from the hiring of Mike Munchak as the new offensive line coach, together with continued improvement from Bell as he enters his second season, we have every reason to believe that Bell will find his way into the back end of RB1 territory.

Montee Ball: Ball was Denver’s obvious heir apparent at the RB spot during the 2013 season, but wasn’t quite ready for the blocking responsibilities that come with the job. As such, he took a back seat to Knowshon Moreno last year, but looked quite good when his number was called. Certainly fumbles plagued Ball last year, but the dude’s got serious RB1 talent, and his breakout happens this season.

Andre Ellington: The third consecutive second-year RB on this list, Ellington had a superlative rookie season. Ellington averaged 5.5 yards per carry, caught 39 balls and just flat-out passed the eye test as a legit NFL RB. With Rashard Mendenhall rightfully out of the Cardinals RB picture, Ellington’s got the show to himself.

Bishop Sankey: Sankey had a very impressive college career at the University of Washington, and he will hold the primary RB duties for the Titans this season, although Shonn Greene will get some carries as well. Sankey has all the tools to thrive right out of the gate. 

Carlos Hyde, Terrance West, Tre Mason & Christine Michael:    

These four young RBs find their names on this list for the same reason – very talented RBs that could find their way into the starting lineup at some point. They are ordered not by ability per se, but by likelihood of getting serious playing time. Ben Tate has the weakest stranglehold on the starting RB position for the four incumbents, and Hyde just looks magnificent for the 49ers, so these two sit atop the group list. If any of these four do make it into the starting lineup, look out.

- Neema Hodjat is the fantasy sports expert for RealGM.  He can be reached via email at nhodjat@gmail.com and followed on twitter at @NeemaHodjat.