Pittsburgh Steelers:        

2013 RECORD: 8-8   

2012 RECORD: 8-8   

2011 RECORD: 12-4   

2010 RECORD: 12-4   

TEAM OVERVIEW: Pittsburgh is in very unusual territory, coming off back to back non-winning seasons.  Never one to start fast in September, there just was too much ground to make up following close losses to Baltimore and hosting Miami.  A team like the Steelers just needs to get into the playoffs and except for two blown referee calls in the SD-KC game these Steelers would have actually made the postseason.  Once there, it would NOT have surprised me to see them do some major damage, just like other lower playoff seeds have done in recent times.  No other NFL team has been successful in succession planning for as long as Pittsburgh has, but recent drafts have not quite been as powerful as in the past.  Since the Steelers are one of a few teams that shies away from the free agency market, the draft and young player development is absolutely critical.  I have always trusted Pittsburgh in need recognition and what areas to focus on in the draft.  Now they need to draft the right players!

KEY STATS: The Steelers were just 0-2 in games decided by three points or less, but combined with ‘12’s 3-5 mark the close games are not going their way.  In games 1-8 Pitt had a -13 turnover ratio, a 13-32 sack ratio and an over 61% pass D.  All three of these numbers are not even close to past Steeler performance!  In addition, the run O was 3.5-73.5 and the run D was 4.25-131.  What was going on?  Pitt finished 6-2, and the numbers showed why.  The turnover ratio was +7.  The sack ratio was 21-11.  The pass was 181-329, or about 55%.  The run O remained about 3.5 but at 100 yards per game.  The run D was 184-819 and that is awfully high for a team used to being in the top three.  In the end the Steeler pass D% was 5th best.  One area that must improve is defensive interceptions.  Pitt had 10 in ’13 and that has been about their norm.  Spread-wise, Pitt is a good bounce back team, going 23-9 off a 20+ point loss (1-0), 24-10 (1-1) off back-to-back spread losses, and 25-10 (1-0) at home off a home loss.  They are 25-16 on MNF not counting a 2-5 road favorite record, 56-39 (2-3) as a non-Divisional home favorite and 18-6 in home finales.  On the negative side, they dropped to 6-20 in road openers.  They remain 2-12 as a road favorite of more than 3 points but were 0-2 at exactly -3 in ’13.  Pitt improved to 22-34 (2-1) off back-to-back straight up and spread wins, and 14-32 (3-0) after scoring over 30 points.  Their overall spread situations hit well over 60% in ’11, and 9-5 with an 8-8 record in ’12 but dropped to 10 of 22 last year for their 1st below average figure. 

2013 DRAFT REVIEW: Pitt last chose an Outside Linebacker in the 1st round in 1991. Like everyone else, I thought Jarvis Jones was a great fit here, although my order of needs read WR, CB and RB.  RB Bell was efficient but is not good enough to create his own holes.  He surprisingly caught 45 out of the backfield.  CB remains a need.    

1-17, LB J Jones: High ceiling for NCAA sack leader, but runs around blocks and did time slow.  40-1 ’13.

2-48, RB Bell: Plodder who moves the chains but takes too long to get to line.  860-3.5-8 TD’s.

3-79, WR Wheaton: Finesse WR who is super savvy.  Productive, #2 ceiling.  ’13 production low (injuries).

4-111, SS S Thomas: 5’9” and super-fast and strong!  29 rookie tackles.

4-115, QB Jones: Best trait is his big game experience.  Occasionally gets in groove.  Pitt needed a #2!

5-150, CB Hawthorne: Fast and athletic but instincts a bit off.  Did not make the team.

6-186, WR J Brown: Did catch 73-879-5 in ’12, 4.59 Pro Day, PR maybe, but better WR’s available. Sat ’13.

6-206, LB V Williams: Run guy is a good tackler but not a 3-down guy at FSU.  Surprising 53 rookie tackles.

7-223, DT N Williams: 31-6 SR, Samford DL called a project by DL coach.  Unpolished.  IR as a rookie.

2012 DRAFT REVISITED: No team has had more success in the 1st round!  I went wild praising the pick of OG DeCastro but he tore his ACL in August ’12 and only played in week 17.  In ’13 he was generally considered the top Steeler OL.  OT Adams was a spot starter in ’12 but lost his job to * rated OG Beachum (7-248) from this same draft.  Adams has seen some work as the #2 TE.  Meanwhile Beachum is now the LT although he is small for that role.  LB Spence has not played in the NFL due to his serious injury.  He may try again this fall.  DT Ta’Amu was nicely rated, but fell out of favor here (felony).  He’s doing great in Arizona.  Most of the remaining picks are long gone as once again Pitt is selecting lower rated players to fill their areas of need.  TE Paulson (* rated, 7-240) caught six passes with no TD’s.   

TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: The Pittsburgh run D is almost always in the top five.  It failed in ’13 but I’m keeping it #1 for now.  Opening run holes and perhaps finding that elusive faster RB has been a recent problem.

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: Pittsburgh has never been a big player in free agency but this year they seem to be making more moves than usual.  The offense loses rotational RB Dwyer, complimentary WR’s Sanders and Cotchery and injured OT Brown.  RB Blount is a nice fit in this power offense.  WR Lance Moore might help, along with three longshot WR’s, including Jasper Collins.  The defense loses DL Ziggy Hood and Al Woods, LB’s Lamar Woodley and Larry Foote, overdrafted CB Curtis Brown and longtime safety Ryan Clark.  DT Cam Thomas adds DL depth.  Average LB Moats.and average safety Mike Mitchell signed on.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: DL, 2 OL, CB, young safety, Speed at RB, LB. extra WR, better back-up TE, return specialist to replace WR Brown.  Cam Thomas might work out at NT, but Pittsburgh needs a contingency plan along with another DL starter.  .  Is undersized Beachum the answer at LT?  Does Mike Adams slide over to OG where Foster and Gilbert are barely hanging on?  Cortez Allen has limitations at CB and Ike Taylor may be slowing down.  Pittsburgh drafted the undersized Thomas at safety but may need more young talent with Polamalu getting up in years and Clark gone.  They don’t like to do it, but it’s time to add diversity to the run game by drafting a RB with timed speed and cutback ability.  Blount may work out, but he is not that guy.  How good is starting ILB Vince Williams?  Lance Moore could challenge ’13 rookie Wheaton in the #2/3 role but it might be wise to add additional depth.  Another TE and someone to return kicks so that Antonio Brown can stay fresh are late needs.