RealGM Analysis
Indianapolis Colts:
2013 RECORD: 11-5
2012 RECORD: 11-5
2011 RECORD: 2-14
2010 RECORD: 10-6
TEAM OVERVIEW: Indy had a somewhat magical ’12 season and it would not have been surprising to see a slight regression take place the very next year. Thanks in small part to a Division that was the worst in the NFL, these Colts repeated its 11-5 mark and even won a playoff game. The future is bright for Indy thanks to Andrew Luck and some very nice offensive pieces around him, but true top-five or so status may be elusive. The team lacks a first round draft choice for ’14 and won’t be able to fix some obvious holes at RB, DL and in pass coverage. Of course Peyton Manning thrived in Indy with a below standard defense. Perhaps this is the blessing and the curse which has now been transferred to Andrew Luck.
KEY STATS: The Colts pass D% reached a new level of incompetence in 2011, even by their own standards! Indy’s 11-year average prior to ’11 was 65%, with NO YEARS BELOW 60%. Congratulations on hitting 71.2% in ’11! Indy did not add anyone who impacted the D in ’12 but still trimmed the pass D to 62.4%. They trimmed the number down again to 60.4%. That’s 14 straight poor years, but the arrow is pointing in the right direction. The run D has been 4.2 or worse now 15 of 16 years after allowing 4.5-125 in ’13. Clearly the team still needs to add new talent. The Colts had 42 sacks. That number was considered average in ’13 but far above their five year average as a team of 30.6 between the years of ‘08-’12. QB Luck improved form just 54% as a rookie to 60%, throwing nine fewer interceptions, although he had turnover issues in the playoffs. The turnover margin changed from -12 to +13. Can they sustain a more random +8 fumble ratio? Typically about 10-14 teams enter the next year with a + point ratio or a – point ratio. About 75-77% of those teams turn a + point ratio into a good year and a – point ratio into a bad year. This year, an all-time low of four teams fit this profile! Unfortunately for Indy, they are one of the four, entering ’14 with a – point ratio. Combined with a + double digit turnover ratio and a first place schedule these Colts have some major work ahead of them in ’14! Indy was lucky to see opposing kickers hit just 23-30. The special team D needs major work as the kick return D was 27th (25.2) and the punt return D was 31st (13.7). Spread-wise, the dog remains 24-3 Indy and NE meet. The NFL’s best road favorite is now 4-1 in that role with Andrew Luck (2-1 in ’13).
2013 DRAFT REVIEW: Indy traded pick the No. 54 for CB Vontae Davis. Davis had a slightly low 46 tackles in ’13 but Indy needs him as they lack true CB talent. DE Werner fit a need, but the raw DE made my boom or bust list. He looked stiff in his rookie year. Why just three defensive selections? GM Grigson has now made a total of four defensive selections total in the last two drafts. Is that enough? Pick 230 was made because Indy had Williams as the best remaining return specialist on their board. He’s not even on the team now! Monday after the draft Indy traded OLB Hughes for LB Sheppard, who had 24 starts, 150 tackles in 2 yrs. Hughes was revitalized in Buffalo. Sheppard had 46 tackles.
1-24, DE Werner, 14-2.5 for the smart but hardly elite DE. Fundamentally sound but not a great athlete.
3-86, OG Thornton: Not an OT. Can block at 2nd level, but won’t hold up vs. sackers. 12 OG starts!
4-121, OC Holmes: Quick and alert but has zero power (on ground a lot) and a knee issue. 3 games in ’13.
5-139, DT Hughes: 329 LBS w/3-4 and 4-3 experience. Risky character w/leverage issues. 4GP-6 tackles.
6-192, SS Boyett: Major surgery last year. Released after arrested. Hoping Denver is the answer.
7-230, RB K Williams: Smaller “Sproles type” RB can return kicks. With San Diego.
7-254 TE Cunningham: Not only is TE not necessary here, he had one career TD! With the Rams.
2012 DRAFT REVISITED: New GM Grigson took four offensive players early and Luck, TE’s Fleener and Allen, and the electric TY Hilton are all legit! DT Chapman had a “redshirt” year coming off injury and had 15 tackles in ’13. RB Ballard went from 817 yards down to 63. WR Brazill has 23 total receptions and may have a #3 WR ceiling. The remaining three picks are gone. Overall, this draft was quite an upgrade as compared to the Polian era.
TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: Offensive youth, especially at QB, WR and TE is their strength, with the right combination of youth and budding talent in many offensive spots. Almost any position on defense needs work but for now the run D is not improving (lack of take on size over the years) while the pass D% seems to be slowly improving.
FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: Offensively, Donald Brown left, leaving ’12 draftees Trent Richardson and Vick Ballard at RB. Can Trent live up to the steep cost of trading for him? WR Nicks joins the electric T.Y. Hilton and future Hall of Famer Reggie Wayne. Six transactions were made so far along the OL but I see no net gain or loss. Arthur Jones adds DL depth and D’Qwell Jackson adds value at LB. Starting safety Antoine Bethea is gone.
2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Interior OL, CB, safety, run stuffing DL, #4 WR, return specialist (?). There is virtually no talent on Indy’s interior OL, even with the free agency additions. Josh Gordy should not be considered for a starting CB role. A replacement is needed for safety Bethea. The entire secondary lacks suitable depth. The NT lacks ideal bulk and the DE’s haven’t stopped the run at all. Signing Arthur Jones is just a start. WR Da’Rick Rogers has massive upside if he is a) given the chance and b) stays out of trouble. Just to be careful, perhaps Indy adds another WR late in the draft. The Colts need to make sure T.Y. Hilton is taken off punt return duties.