Atlanta Falcons:         

2013 RECORD: 4-12  
2012 RECORD: 13-3   
2011 RECORD: 10-6    
2010 RECORD: 13-3   

TEAM OVERVIEW: Excuses, excuses. Atlanta lost Julio Jones early, but it was clear from the start that this was an incomplete team. “Experts” knew going in that Atlanta was not as good as their ’13 record showed, and Las Vegas agreed, both in their Power # as well as their season win expectations. While the ’13 draft attempted to address head on one of their glaring weaknesses (pass D%), Atlanta was ill equipped to provide the rookies with any pass rush help. NFL sack numbers reached a record high in ’13 but the Falcons were left behind, with just 32 defensive sacks. Offensively, line play suffered as Matt Ryan was sacked 44 times, a far cry from the usual under 30 per season. Atlanta was 36-12 from ’10 through ’12. Can Atlanta return to this level of performance? In the NFC South the answer is usually yes, but to do so the focus of the upcoming free agency period, followed by the ’14 draft must be near flawless. 

KEY STATS: Offensively, the Falcons were still fine but there are holes at RB and along the OL. Losing Jones had an impact but Atlanta allowed 44 sacks in ’13 after allowing 54 combined in ’11 and ’12. The run O was “acceptable” at 3.9 but last in the NFL at just 78 yards per game. Turnovers went from +13 to -7. The defense needs work. The run D was not good in ’12 at 123-4.8. It was worse (31st) last year at 136-4.8. The pass D regressed to 66.1%, the fifth straight year over the magic 60% figure. Atlanta allowed 46% on 3rd down and opponents threw for 31 TD passes. Defensive sacks tied 28th at just 32, which is unfortunately about their norm the past three years. Atlanta began ’13 with – point ratio and when they jogged through the preseason at 0-4, red flags were raised. People can “argue” that the preseason means little but about 9% of teams make the playoffs going 0-4 in August. Spread-wise, the positive is a 21-7 ATS ledger as a dog to the rival Saints, but the team was a rare 0-2 in bounce-back games off scoring 10 or fewer points. They are 5-18 (1-1) on MNF and remain 16-33 off BB SU wins.  What was said last year is still true; Atlanta needs to play better in big games and MUST learn how to finish drives in crunch time.

2013 DRAFT REVIEW: Atlanta needed OL, CB’s and LB’s last year. They failed to address their OL (with major consequences) but double dipped at CB with solid results. Picks after the CB’s mostly sat which was expected given the NR ratings to half their draft. Atlanta added WR Darius Johnson after the draft and he did contribute.  I spoke about him but not about undrafted LB’s Bartu and Worrilow, who combined for 25 starts, 212 tackles and 5.5 sacks.  That’s unheard of, but also speaks to why they needed LB’s in the ’12 draft. Worrilow did carry a * rating. Free agency got them DL Umenyiora (47-7.5) and RB Jackson (6 TD’s, modest running/receiving).  More help is needed in both areas.

1-30, CB Trufant:16 starts, 70 tackles and 2 picks for this solid draft choice.

2-60, CB Alford: FCS defensive POY us older (26 now). He had 4 starts, 40 tackles and 2 picks.

4-127, DE Goodman: Longest DE arms, but low college production and on ground too much.  14 tackles.

4-133, TE Toilolo: Good after the catch. Eleven catches as a rookie. Must overcome injury history.

4-153, DE Maponga: Almost rated, JR project who lacks DE bulk.  5 rookie tackles.

7-243, S   Ishmael: Projected to be not much more than a special teams guy (1 tackle)

7-244, SS Motta: Almost rated, he led ND in tackles in ’12, Plays like a LB. Too slow (10 tackles)?

7-249, QB Renfree: Leader, but lacks QB anticipation skill. 

2012 DRAFT REVISITED: OL was #1 on my ’12 need board and Atlanta hit it twice in the early rounds with Konz and Holmes. Konz had a rough ’13, playing at OC and OG. He’s not a certain starter for ’14. Holmes played 7 snaps as a rookie and started ’13 at RT. He was ineffective at both RT and LT as sacks went up vs. the Falcons. FB Ewing missed ’12 and played in just one game in ’13 before going back on IR. LB Massaquoi is undersized but had 46 tackles and 4 sacks.  Safety Mitchell is gone. NR (not worthy of a position rating) DT Robertson has four lifetime tackles.

TOP STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS PRIOR TO THE DRAFT: The strength remains the pass game with top ten QB Ryan throwing to White and Jones although TE Gonzalez is a huge loss.  The weakness remains the pass rush, which generated 29 sacks in ’12 and just 32 in ’13 when sacks were at a record high! 

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES: As of March 24th. OG Asamoah and swing OL Carimi arrive on offense and DT’s Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai hope to solidify a less than solid DL. Devin Hester could jump start the return game.  The only meaningful loss thus far is the retirement of elite TE Tony Gonzalez. Scott Pioli is the new Assistant GM. His overall track record is not that impressive.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Draft Needs as of March 20th: Impact DE 1-2 OL, including a LT, impact LB, safety, long term RB, extra TE, back-up QB.  Atlanta has work to do in reshaping this roster.  No team needs DE Clowney more than this one.  Can they make it happen?  Sam Baker is hardly an elite LT and he’s coming off surgery.  The entire OL underachieved in ’13 and needs rated talent. A pair of undrafted rookies made their mark at LB in ’13.  That’s nice, but this unit needs a statement LB.  Even before the release of FS Thomas DeCloud an upgrade was necessary. Atlanta needs to find a younger, every down RB. ’13 rookie Toilolo is the new #1 TE but he was injury prone in college and every NFL team needs at least two options at this position.  Dominique Davis is the back-up QB.