Only two weeks of regular season football left. Enjoy it while it lasts, even if you’re a fan of a hopeless team like the Houston Texans.

Last Week: 10-6, which I’ll take on a topsy-turvy weekend of games. The overall season mark is now 146-78, counting the tie as a loss.

Gambling Update: To quote Glenn Quagmire, “Oh yeah, all right!” I went heavy on the Chiefs and cashed in on the Steelers and Seahawks as well. I returned a cool 2000 som profit on the week. The Uzbek bookies are off my back as I inch ever closer to my original starting point of 10,000 som, the official currency of that Central Asian nation. I now hold 9000 and I’m looking to get back in black.

Sunday Best

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3): The NFC South title is on the line in Charlotte, and the Panthers sure appear to be in a very favorable position to seize the division. New Orleans made a couple of stunning personnel moves this week, cutting longtime kicker Garrett Hartley and benching left tackle Charles Brown.

Veteran Shayne Graham takes over for Hartley, who had missed several kicks under 50 yards this season. He shanked one and had another blocked in the humbling loss to St. Louis last week, and coach Sean Payton had seen enough. Graham is a competent replacement who might even have better range.

The more serious move is benching Brown in favor of rookie Terron Armstead. Brown has not been good, but Armstead has yet to play as a second-round pick out of Arkansas-Pine Bluff. He makes his debut on the road against the talented Greg Hardy, who notched four QB hits last week while facing the decent D’Brickashaw Ferguson and the Jets.

I liked Armstead in the draft process, I really did. He was easily the best player regardless of position during Shrine Game week last year, and he was demonstrably better than Lane Johnson (the fourth overall pick) during his time at Senior Bowl week. But this is trial by fire with dire implications; if the Saints lose they’ll likely wind up as the fifth seed, which means a Wild Card trip to either Philadelphia, Chicago or Green Bay. They’re not winning any of those games. That’s a lot to put on a rookie making his debut.

Panthers 30, Saints 25

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5): I was talking to a buddy of mine the other day (hi Rico!) and he’s a conspiracy theorist as well as a 49ers die-hard. His contention is that the Seahawks will lay down to let the Cardinals win, which sets up a Week 17 game in Arizona between the Cardinals and 49ers for the final NFC Wild Card spot. Yes, he actually believes Pete Carroll loathes Jim Harbaugh that much.

I think Rico is crazy, but there’s just enough method to his madness that I cannot rule out the possibility of the Cardinals dialing up the improbably upset. I wouldn’t wager even one Uzbek som, which is worth less than a penny, on his inkling, but it does intrigue me. Carroll is absolutely that petty.

Seahawks 24, Cardinals 18

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7): This is almost certainly a preview of the fourth seed vs. fifth seed AFC playoff game in a couple of weeks, though that game will be in Indianapolis. The Chiefs still have visions of overtaking the Broncos and seizing the AFC West, and that carries the day over the Colts, who are pretty much locked into the four seed. The ever-improving Chiefs offense continues to roll.

Chiefs 27, Colts 20

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2): Here’s what we learned about the Ravens on Monday night--they’re going to win a battle of field goals, period. Baltimore has a lot of confidence against New England, and their strong special teams give them just enough of a boost to overcome New England. Tom Brady will really miss Rob Gronkowski in this one, particularly in the red zone. Hence the battle of the kickers, and Justin Tucker wins that battle.

Ravens 19, Patriots 16

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3): The overwhelming thought I have with this game is Chicago’s truly laughable run defense trying to contain LeSean McCoy and the very solid Eagles offensive line. They steamrolled a very good Lions run defense for over 200 yards, and these Bears might be the worst run defense of the last 20 years. They rank dead last in yards per carry (5.2), yards per first-down carry (5.6) and most yards allowed--by almost 300.

The good folks at Pro Football Focus grade every play of every game, and they have scored the Bears run defense at -113.3 (subscription required to view advanced stats). The next-worst team is Dallas at -61.9. In short, the Bears are almost twice as bad as any other team, and the Dallas defense is abominable. Until last week, the Eagles led the league in rushing attempts per game, and they still lead the league in yards per carry.

Matching one team’s league-leading strength against the other’s league-worst weakness is pretty powerful. I know the Bears offense is going to have some success, but I cannot get past what McCoy and the Eagles offense are going to do to Major Wright and the rest of the Bears defense. Shady could get 250 yards and three TDs here, I’m not exaggerating at all.

Eagles 34, Bears 31

Sunday Rest

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5): I’m taking the Ethnic Slurs in this one, and here are three reasons why:

1. This Dallas defense is overmatched, both schematically and personnel-wise. There’s a reason defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin was let go by his own son at USC, beyond Lane being a complete jackass.

2. Kirk Cousins has reinvigorated the Washington offense, and the Cowboys cannot match it, not with Tony Romo in December.

3. This is almost certainly London Fletcher’s last home game. The venerable veteran is beloved by the fans, but just as importantly he’s feted in the locker room. The Slurs rise up for their leader one last time.

Ethnic Slurs 33, Cowboys 31

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5): This one is a total gut hunch. I really think the Cleveland defense creates major problems for Geno Smith and the New York offense.

Browns 19, Jets 17

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (+10.5): Peyton Manning has too much to play for to let up against the Texans, who turn back to Matt Schaub in Houston’s home finale. It’s going to be Schaub’s last game in Houston, and he’ll demonstrate why as the Broncos roll. Reliant Stadium could resemble a mausoleum by the end of the game, as the Texans faithful flock to the nearby Galleria for good tidings and great joy…once they survive the 45 minute, 3-mile commute to snare a precious parking spot.

Broncos 36, Texans 16 for 500 som

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-8): The Vikings rose up last week and stunned the Eagles despite a massively depleted roster. It was one of those “any given Sunday” shockers, and that’s exactly how it should be perceived. They are extremely unlikely to replicate that kind of outcome once again. The weather in Cincinnati will provide a real home advantage as well.

Bengals 23, Vikings 13

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2.5): With rookie E.J. Manuel out once again, the Bills turn back to Thad Lewis at quarterback. That might actually give them a better chance against Miami, as Manuel continued to prove not quite ready to lead a NFL team just yet.

There is some concern that the young Dolphins could choke away their opportunity here. They desperately need a win to stay in the playoff hunt. Buffalo’s pass rush presents real problems, too. And Lewis already has one win over the Dolphins this year, leading the Bills to a 23-12 win in Miami back in October. I’m just not sold that the Dolphins are ready to take that next step yet, and Buffalo is never an easy place for them to play.

Bills 20, Dolphins 17 for 250 som

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5): The battle for second place in the AFC South is a tough call. It speaks volumes that the 4-10 Jaguars can seize second place. They’re going to miss Cecil Shorts, but probably not as much as his fantasy owners as they play for league titles.

Jacksonville already won in Tennessee this year, and the Titans continually lay eggs in divisional games. I do think they’re the better team and a pretty solid choice to win this game, but I don’t believe the Titans merit being 5-point favorites on the road against anyone.

Titans 24, Jaguars 20 for 500 som

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-4.5): Robert Quinn continues his quest for Defensive Player of the Year votes. Pray for Mike Glennon. Enough said.

Rams 26, Bucs 16

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-9): This is going to be the last home game for longtime Lions center Dominic Raiola. He’s been the man in the middle since 2001, and while he’s never been more than an average player, he’s respected in the locker room. He’s also having his best year, and I think the strength of the Detroit lines is a major advantage in this game. Detroit is due for a big game and clutch performance, if only so they can blow the chance to get into the playoffs in humiliating fashion in Week 17.

Lions 34, Giants 17 for 500 som

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-7): The mysterious status of Aaron Rodgers really complicates the forecast here. As of Friday morning he still has not been officially cleared for a return, but there are still 48 more hours for the Green Bay doctors to decide his fate. They are also deciding the Packers’ playoff fate, because there is no way Matt Flynn leads the Packers to a victory over the Steelers, not even this substandard Pittsburgh edition.

Here’s one reason why I really like the Steelers, courtesy my Bleacher Report colleague Zach Kruse:

Steelers 28, Packers 24, but if Rodgers plays the Packers win the game but still fail to cover

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10.5): In years past, during the tortuous Norv/AJ years in San Diego, this is a game you could count on the Chargers to blow. Heavy home favorites against a clearly inferior opponent in a game that San Diego desperately needs to win? Yeah, that was an easy loss in years past.

This time I’m not so sure. The Raiders are really languishing with Matt McGloin, who threw four INTs last week in a game that otherwise marked his best performance. San Diego’s offense is really humming along, and the Raiders offense will not be able to keep up in a shootout.

Then there is the Ron Burgundy factor. After months of ceaseless promotion, his new movie is finally out. San Diego gets a bounce from Anchorman 2, a movie you could not pay me to see. Go away, Will Ferrell, you’re the new Paris Hilton, an overexposed celebrity with little to offer other than pointless drivel and casual nudity that nobody really wants to see.

Chargers 32, Raiders 20

Monday

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-13.5): It doesn’t get much worse than this for ESPN. What looked like a marquee matchup when picking games for the MNF schedule last spring turned into a sick puppy with the collapse of the Falcons. The fact the Niners need the win for playoff purposes makes this even uglier. This sure looks like another game where you can safely go to bed at halftime. San Francisco closes down Candlestick Park in glorious fashion.

I have but one Candlestick experience, and it was not football. In the Giants’ last season in that stadium (3Com Park at the time IIRC), I saw them lose to the Florida Marlins with about 5,000 others on a beautiful but windy evening on April 20, 1999. That date is better-known for being the day of the Columbine shooting. I was in the Bay Area on a business trip and I’ll never forget the somberness and aghast horror of that entire week. The very next night I was blessed to score tickets and got to see Metallica record their S&M record with the symphony. It’s one of the more memorable weeks of my life. Thanks for that, Candlestick.

49ers 30, Falcons 13 for 500 som

Betting recap:

Detroit -9 for 500

Denver -10.5 for 500

Jacksonville +5 for 500

San Francisco -13.5 for 500

Buffalo +2.5 for 250

Bowl Games

The Bowl season kicks off on Friday with a couple of good ones. The Las Vegas Bowl might be one of the five best games of the entire bowl slate.

- New Mexico Bowl: Washington State 26, Colorado State 24

- Las Vegas Bowl: Fresno State 36, USC 30

- Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Buffalo 28, San Diego State 20 #MACtion

- Beef O’Brady’s Bowl: East Carolina 39, Ohio 16. Sorry to my fellow Bobcat nation, but we’re the worst bowl-eligible team in the country,

- Hawaii Bowl: Oregon State 33, Boise State 31. The Broncos miss Chris Peterson here.

- Little Caesar’s Bowl: Bowling Green 23, Pittsburgh 21. #MACtion

- Poinsettia Bowl: Northern Illinois 44, Utah State 35. #MACtion

Can you tell I’m a proud MAC grad?