As the month of August winds down, certain thoughts come to mind: Labor Day weekend, the final days of summer, and last but not least, the start of NFL season. We all breathed a sigh of relief when the NFL owners and the players agreed on how to divide nine billion dollars of annual revenue. I’m hoping that, unlike Latrell Sprewell circa 2005, each owner and player will not face any difficulty in feeding his family as a result of the new collective bargaining agreement. In any event, whether or not such difficulty exists will not be tackled in this article. With Week 1 of the NFL season around the corner, your focus should be on your fantasy football draft board. What’s the most effective strategy for the 2011 fantasy football season? I will share my thoughts on this with you, along with my player rankings. Before I delve into the rankings, I want to briefly explain the best method for ranking players for your draft – the tier system. You should analyze players by grouping them in tiers by position, rather than a straight number ranking. Players ranked in the same tier provide relatively similar value. This does not mean that you should ignore other ranking systems; instead, I am strongly advocating using a tier system as your primary roadmap, with other rankings to supplement the tier system. Based on the rankings below, Sam Bradford would be the 14th ranked quarterback on the board, and Kyle Orton would be the 19th, but each player provides similar value. Thus, if you are looking to add a quarterback, and you see all the quarterbacks in Tier 5 remaining (but none above Tier 5), then you should consider other positions before rushing to pick a quarterback from this group. Odds are likely that a player from this group will remain when your next selection comes up. If you group players solely using a straight number ranking by position, you could end up reaching for a player like Bradford too early and missing out on a great value player from another position. The rankings below are based on the 2011 season only (so, not for a keeper league) and for non point-per-reception leagues (although most of the rankings would not change a significant deal in a PPR league). As previously mentioned, I expect each player in the same tier to provide similar value. Without further adieu, here are the rankings, along with my general thoughts on each position. I have noted the bye week for each player in parentheses next to the player’s name. Also, at the end of the rankings, I will provide some additional thoughts on draft strategy. Quarterback Tiers Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers (8), Michael Vick (7) Tier 2: Drew Brees (11), Tom Brady (7), Philip Rivers (6) Tier 3: Peyton Manning (11), Tony Romo (5), Matt Schaub (11), Ben Roethlisberger (11) Tier 4: Matt Ryan (8), Josh Freeman (8), Eli Manning (7), Joe Flacco (5) Tier 5: Sam Bradford (5), Jay Cutler (8), Kevin Kolb (6), Matthew Stafford (9), Matt Cassel (6), Kyle Orton (6) Tier 6: Mark Sanchez (8), Colt McCoy (5), Donovan McNabb (9), Ryan Fitzpatrick (7), Jason Campbell (8), Matt Hasselbeck (6) Tier 7: Tavarius Jackson (6), David Guerrard (9), Alex Smith (7), Andy Dalton (7), John Beck (5), Cam Newton (9) Analysis: I highly recommend securing one of the top five quarterbacks on this list if possible. Not that you can’t obtain good value following Tier 2, but an elite quarterback can win you games almost on his own during his best weeks. At the top, the question is very straightforward: safety vs. risk/reward. Michael Vick, if healthy all year, will lead the league in fantasy points. Will he stay healthy all season? That’s the question. Aaron Rodgers is a safer pick, and thus he is slightly higher on my board than Vick. Peyton Manning would ordinarily join the Tier 2 QBs, but his health raises question marks. While you should do what you can to get one of the QBs in the top two tiers, I do feel that the QBs in Tiers 3 and 4 are solid, and even Tier 5 can provide some good value. i>Players Likely to Outperform Draft Slot: Eli Manning, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, Colt McCoy QBs Likely to Disappoint: Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, Matt Hasselbeck Running Back Tiers Tier 1: Adrian Peterson (9), Arian Foster (11) Tier 2: Chris Johnson (6), Jamaal Charles (6), Ray Rice (5) Tier 3: LeSean McCoy (7), Darren McFadden (8), Maurice Jones-Drew (9), Rashard Mendenhall (11), Michael Turner (8), Frank Gore (7), Matt Forte (8) Tier 4: Steven Jackson (5), LaGarrette Blount (5), DeAngelo Williams (9), Peyton Hillis (8), Ahmad Bradshaw (7) Tier 5: Felix Jones (5), Shonn Greene (8), Ryan Matthews (6), Knowshon Moreno (6), Jonathan Stewart (9), Tier 6: Jahvid Best (9), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (7), Ryan Grant (8), Cedric Benson (7), Fred Jackson (7), Joseph Addai (11), Tim Hightower (5) Tier 7: Pierre Thomas (11), Beanie Wells (6), Reggie Bush (5), Marshawn Lynch (6), Mark Ingram (11), Brandon Jacobs (7) Tier 8: Ryan Torrain (5), James Starks (8), Daniel Thomas (5), CJ Spiller (7), Mike Tolbert (6) Tier 9: Jerome Harrison (5), Roy Helu (5), Danny Woodhead (7), Justin Forsett (6), Thomas Jones (6), Rashad Jennings (9), Willis McGahee (6), Ronnie Brown (7) Analysis: Not long ago, the goal on draft day was to secure two top running backs high in your draft (often with your top two picks). With the passing game becoming a larger part of NFL offenses, and teams employing the running-back-by-committee approach in increasing numbers, the number of RBs worth your highest picks has decreased. Also, we see more RBs emerge from nowhere during the season, and as such, you have additional flexibility to shore up other positions at the top of your draft. My thought is to try to nab one of the top RBs early on in your draft (someone from the top 3 tiers, and then grab a group of RBs in the early mid-rounds (for example, after having drafted 1 RB in your first three picks, take two more RBs somewhere in rounds four through six). Also, keep your eye out during the season for players that emerge (think Peyton Hillis last year). As mentioned, players will come out of nowhere to make a fantasy impact, and these players can become key components of a championship run. As for the specific player rankings above, Chris Johnson’s holdout has dropped him into Tier 2. Also, while Beanie Wells (due to injury to Ryan Williams), Knowshon Moreno and Jahvid Best are set to be the primary RBs for their teams, do not overvalue them. These players are not elite RBs, and will produce solid numbers, but not enough to bump them up significantly in the rankings. Players Likely to Outperform Draft Slot: LaGarrette Blount, Matt Forte, Felix Jones, Shonn Greene, Tim Hightower RBs Likely to Disappoint: Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner, Jahvid Best, Beanie Wells Wide Receiver Tiers Tier 1: Roddy White (8), Andre Johnson (11), Calvin Johnson (9) Tier 2: Larry Fitzgerald (6), Hakeem Nicks (7), Greg Jennings (8), Mike Wallace (11) Tier 3: Vincent Jackson (6), Miles Austin (5), Desean Jackson (7), Reggie Wayne (11) Tier 4: Mario Manningham (7), Dez Bryant (5), Jeremy Maclin (7), Mike Williams (TB) (8), Marques Colston (11), Dwayne Bowe (6), Santonio Holmes (8) Tier 5: Kenny Britt (6), Brandon Lloyd (6), Stevie Johnson (7), Wes Welker (7), Chad Ochocinco (7), Percy Harvin (9), Anquan Boldin (5), Brandon Marshall (5) Tier 6: Sidney Rice (6), Austin Collie (11), Pierre Garcon (11), Lance Moore (11), Julio Jones (8), Steve Smith (CAR) (9), Santana Moss (5), Malcolm Floyd (6), AJ Green (7), Johnny Knox (8) Tier 7: Mike Thomas (9), Lee Evans (5), Jordy Nelson (8), Braylon Edwards (7), Roy Williams (8), Jacoby Ford (8), Michael Crabtree (7), Mike Williams (SEA) (6), James Jones (8) Tier 8: Robert Meachem (11), Plaxico Burress (8), Danny Amendola (5), Mike Sims-Walker (5), Deion Branch (7), Davone Bess (5), Donald Driver (8), Hines Ward (11), Steve Breaston (6), Jerome Simpson (7) Tier 9: Derrick Mason (8), Jacoby Jones (11), Nate Burleson (9), Kevin Walter (11), Emmanuel Sanders (11), Bernard Berrian (9) Analysis: Many solid wide receivers are out there, but truly elite wide receivers are sparse. Especially in PPR leagues or leagues which start three wide receivers, you will want to make grabbing an elite receiver a priority. By elite, I am referring to the top two tiers. I also would not wait too long to grab your second WR. Players such as Mario Manningham and Dez Bryant would serve as terrific #2 WRs, and may provide you with WR1 numbers. Value exists down the board as well: Percy Harvin, Lance Moore, Julio Jones, Jordy Nelson and Braylon Edwards are all solid candidates to outperform their draft slots. Players Likely to Outperform Draft Slot: Mike Wallace, Mario Manningham, Lance Moore, Jordy Nelson WRs Likely to Disappoint: Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Sidney Rice (due to ineptitude of Seattle QB play), Plaxico Burress Tight End Tiers Tier 1: Antonio Gates (6) Tier 2: Dallas Clark (11), Jermichael Finley (8), Jason Witten (5), Vernon Davis (7) Tier 3: Owen Daniels (11), Marcedes Lewis (9), Zach Miller (6), Kellen Winslow (5), Brandon Pettigrew (9), Jimmy Graham (11) Tier 4: Greg Olson (9), Rob Gronkowski (7), Dustin Keller (8), Tony Moeaki (6), Tony Gonzalez (8) Tier 5: Chris Cooley (5), Ben Watson (5), Aaron Hernandez (7), Todd Heap (6), Jermaine Gresham (7), Brent Celek (7), Kevin Boss (8), Heath Miller (11) Analysis: Unlike most years, the tight end position is unusually deep this. Antonio Gates remains at the top of the class, but legitimate injury concerns exist with him. If the opportunity presents itself to draft Gates or some of the Tier 2 tight ends at favorable draft slots, then go ahead. Otherwise, it’s fine to wait and pick your tight end later. Tony Moeaki, for example, has enormous upside and could provide a very favorable return based on where he is being drafted. Players Likely to Outperform Draft Slot: Brandon Pettigrew, Jimmy Graham, Dustin Keller, Tony Moeaki TEs Likely to Disappoint: Zach Miller, Tony Gonzalez Defense Tiers Tier 1: Pittsburgh (11), Green Bay (8), New York Jets (8) Tier 2: Baltimore (5), Chicago (7), Philadelphia (8), New Orleans (11), San Diego (6), Miami (5) Tier 3: Atlanta (8), New England (7), Kansas City (6), Detroit (9), New York Giants (7), Oakland (8) Tier 4: St. Louis (5), Dallas (5), San Francisco (7), Tampa Bay (8) Tier 5: Minnesota (9), Cleveland (5), Cincinnati (7), Seattle (6) Analysis: Some people subscribe to the school of thought that kickers and defenses should be selected with the last few picks. I half-subscribe to the theory. Kickers absolutely should be selected last. There is no reliable way to predict which kickers will have the best seasons year to year (especially in a manner that will make a kicker worthy of selection prior to the last picks). Furthermore, over the course of the season, the variance between the kickers’ final numbers usually amounts to just a couple points a week. So, pick your kickers last! Sorry for the digression, and now back to defense. The rankings are self explanatory, but I do think that a solid defense makes a difference, and would not wait until the last pick to grab a defense. Defenses that have a good chance of outperforming their draft slots include San Diego and Miami. Conclusion In a nutshell, ideally you will end up with a top quarterback, along with one elite running back and wide receiver with your first three picks. With your next three-four picks, you will want to grab two additional running backs and shore up the wide receiver/tight end spots. That being said, don’t force the issue. Ultimately, the best drafts are those where you take the best value available at each slot. Don’t pass up drafting a second elite WR in the third round just because you do not have a running back. If a comparable RB sits on the board, then it may make sense to pick that player. Otherwise, let the draft come to you. Remember that you can always make trades to balance out your roster. One more factor to consider when drafting is whether or not a player switched teams this offseason, or if he has been in his current situation for some time. With the severely reduced offseason, players with new teams will face a tougher transition with their new teams, and it could take some time for them to get assimilated. As such, consider this point as well in making your selections, and everything else being equal, go with the player that did not switch teams. I hope this article helps with your draft preparation, and please feel free to write me with any thoughts, comments or questions. I wish you a successful and exciting draft, and a fun fantasy football season. Let the games begin! Neema can be reached at nhodjat@gmail.com