It’s Christmas weekend. That means loads of Saturday football. For most of the country it also means a massive winter storm. As I’m writing this, the Weather Channel is setting up about 5 miles away from my house here in West MI, so we’re going to keep these pretty brief this week. Stay warm and enjoy the holiday weekend!

Last week: 12-4, a merry way to swing into this holiday weekend. The season record is now 139-85

Thursday Night

- Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-1.5): It’s interesting how the prism of recent games shapes perception. The Jets have lost 4 of 5 since their 6-3 start, but they’re still perceived as the better team than Jacksonville. You know, those Jaguars who have beaten Baltimore and Dallas in consecutive weeks with QB Trevor Lawrence looking very much like the guy everyone expected him to be as the No. 1 overall pick in 2021. The Jags are the better team lately and they’ll prove it Thursday night.

Jaguars 20, Jets 17

Saturday Games

- New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5): How does Minnesota handle the bliss of pulling off the biggest comeback in NFL history? How do the Giants handle a potential letdown week after asserting their presence in the NFC playoff picture by beating Washington? I give the edge to Team Skol at home with the realization that their own volatility was both the reason why they fell so far behind the Colts and also why they were able to storm back.

Vikings 32, Giants 28

- Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (+8.5): There is no truth to the rumor that the Bears were holding open tryouts for every offensive position except quarterback. But it’s easy to see how that rumor would spread. That’s, uh, not a great practice squad they’re fielding as a starting unit around Justin Fields.

Bills 28, Bears 14

- New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (-3.5): Among the many places with terrible weather for this weekend, none sounds worse than Cleveland. The Browns will host the Saints with air temp in the 10s, wind chill around minus-20 and wind gusts that could hit hurricane force off Lake Erie. New Orleans hasn’t played in a game with temps below 32 degrees at kickoff in 11 years. This might be the most convincing argument for Browns owner Jimmy Haslam to get his team a domed stadium.

Browns 14, Saints 6

- Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers (+3): I really like the matchup of Jared Goff and a diverse, deep group of pass catchers against a Panthers defense that does well when it has a focal point but struggles to herd a lot of cats. I give a 20% chance of a Lions letdown in the cold.

Lions 27, Panthers 17

- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7.5): The Titans will play this game without QB Ryan Tannehill and two starting offensive linemen. Malik Willis is expected to take over at QB. They’re perilously thin in the secondary too. And somehow they’re still eminently better than the Texans. 

Titans 19, Texans 14

- Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (+3.5): The best team in the AFC over the last two months shouldn’t have trouble with a Patriots team thisclose to civil war. Mac Jones and Matt Patricia coming to blows on the sideline feels as likely to happen as these Patriots recovering from the mother of all game giveaways last week to the Raiders.

Bengals 27, Patriots 20

- Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs (-9): Seattle has lost four of its last five to fall out of controlling its own NFC Wild Card destiny. The one win in that stretch was a narrow one over a bad Rams teams. Going on the road to Kansas City, where conditions could strongly resemble Antarctica, is not a recipe to get hot again.

Chiefs 25, Seahawks 10

- Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5): This current Baltimore team does not stroke me as being worthy of giving a touchdown to anyone. The Falcons are still very much alive and have a chance to be the first NFC South team to win outside the division in December here.

Falcons 23, Ravens 21

- Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5): The Commanders offense has been too inconsistent lately to trust them to rise up against a formidable 49ers defense. I do think Washington’s own defense slows down the Brock Purdy express, though.

49ers 23, Commanders 18

- Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-2): The NFC East could be decided here, and it’s sad that Eagles QB and MVP candidate Jalen Hurts is almost certain to miss the game. I’m not sure the Eagles have the ability to change gears offensively so fast against an attacking style of defense with the level of athletes the Cowboys present.

The problem for the Cowboys is their passing offense. Can anyone outside of CeeDee Lamb get open and catch the ball against a very good Eagles defense? The Eagles pass rush won’t make life any easier for Dak Prescott. The game being in Dallas leads me to believe the Cowboys will find some Christmas magic at home.

Cowboys 26, Eagles 23

- Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): Just when you thought it was safe to bury both the Raiders and Steelers, they creep back into the bottom of the “in the hunt” of the AFC playoff picture. The uninventive Steelers offense is very difficult to believe in, but man that defense can play lately: Pittsburgh has allowed 17 points in three of its last four games, and the other game they allowed just 16. I think Pittsburgh’s offense can top that against the Raiders in the weather.

Steelers 20, Raiders 17

Sunday Games

- Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (-4): The Packers defense should be nary a minor bump for Miami’s high-speed offense. The schedule-makers did Green Bay dirty by having this game in Miami this week. If this game was on the shores of Lake Michigan, I’d take the Packers.

Dolphins 33, Packers 24

- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams (+1): Somebody has to win, right? Right!? Gimmie the Broncos who are playing to get out of Denver with a national audience audition over what’s left of the Rams.

Broncos 16, Rams 13

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5): A bit more perilous of a trip to the desert than Bucs fans might want to acknowledge, but the Cardinals’ complete lack of any quarterback competency makes it more than likely Tom Brady can outscore Arizona. Don’t expect the Cardinals defense to roll over, however.

Buccaneers 20, Cardinals 13

Monday Night

- Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts (+4): The Colts made the switch to Nick Foles, benching Matt Ryan for a second time this season. After last Saturday, it’s hard to blame them. Also, after last Saturday’s historic collapse, it’s hard to have any faith they’ll play for interim head coach Jeff Saturday well enough to hang with the playoff-hungry Chargers.

Chargers 30, Colts 17