Last week: 11-3, a nice bounce back from a bad week. 100-54 on the season forecast

Thanksgiving week means a full plate of NFL action on Thursday. It’s also the return of the full 16-game slate as the bye weeks are now mercifully concluded.

Thursday Games

- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3): The battle for the NFC North hits Ford Field. Both teams are 6-4 but the Lions could deliver a major blow with a win, as they won the first meeting 22-16 three short weeks ago. You might remember that game for the furious final drive from Matthew Stafford to tie the score, followed by Golden Tate’s Mortal Kombat finishing move on the game-winning touchdown in overtime.

Those kind of big plays have not been Minnesota’s forte, but they struck with a couple in last week’s win over Arizona. Xavier Rhodes notched a 100-yard pick-six, while Cordarrelle Patterson took the second half kickoff 104 yards to the house. If they can replicate that against an improving Detroit defense, the Vikings can return the favor on the Lions winning in their house.

Detroit must unearth some of the explosive offense from recent Thanksgiving games. The Lions have won three in a row on their special day by a total score of 119-41. They also beat Minnesota the last time the Vikings visited on Thanksgiving back in 1995. In a close game, I’ll take Matthew Stafford 100 times out of 100 over Sam Bradford, but the Lions fan in me worries Minnesota will do enough to keep this from being close. Detroit’s impressive run of comeback wins is unsustainable.

Vikings 24, Lions 15

- Washington at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5): Washington doesn’t get enough national respect. They’re on an impressive 6-1-1 run, the latest a prime time evisceration of Green Bay. That game highlighted the balanced offense, the disciplined aggression on both sides of the ball and the overall talent level which overwhelmed the Packers.

They’re a real threat to throw some cold water on the red hot Cowboys. It will not be easy. Dak Prescott continues to avoid the negative plays, even if the rookie QB doesn’t always see the top option. As I wrote about Sunday, Prescott getting on the same page with Dez Bryant is precisely the midseason lift Dallas needed to avoid stagnation.

I suspect Dez will have to have a big day, because I do think Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense will put up some points on the Dallas defense. Fortunately for the home team, they have the better kicker and the running game to burn clock with a lead. This should be a very good game.

Cowboys 30, Washington 27 

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+3): Many sports books stopped betting on this game with the uncertain status of Colts QB Andrew Luck. He is in the concussion protocol and was not cleared to resume activities as of Tuesday night. If Luck doesn’t play, and it doesn’t look promising, Colts fans will pray they’re already in a tryptophan-induced slumber instead of watching this game. Even with Luck beating the Steelers is a tall order. These two teams have met two years in a row, with Pittsburgh prevailing by a combined 96-44 margin.

Steelers 36, Colts 13

Sunday

- San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-7.5): The Dolphins have won five in a row. They’re not getting many style points along the way, but I suspect Miami fans don’t mind. They might actually get some style points against a team that might not have one offensive skill position starter that isn’t dead last at his respective spot in the NFL right now.

Dolphins 29, 49ers 6

- New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (+7): I’ll be in Cleveland for the holiday weekend visiting family and friends in my hometown. And my visits typically portend good things for the Browns. In my last four trips to Cleveland when the Browns play, they’re 2-2. The winless home team shows just enough fight to keep this interesting, and the red-hot Giants struggled against a Chicago team that might actually be worse than Cleveland right now. Be careful, New York…

Giants 20, Browns 15

- Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-7): I broke down Jared Goff’s debut for the Rams over at FanRag. While there were some positives, to think Goff can outduel Drew Brees in New Orleans is as big of a fantasy as Julianne Moore serving me Thanksgiving leftovers in the nude. I’m a turkey noodle casserole fan, Ms. Moore…

Saints 33, Rams 21

- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4.5): The Bengals were already in serious trouble before both A.J. Green and Gio Bernard left last week’s games. Both are now out for the season, and with that goes any hope for Cincinnati salvaging a disappointing season. Can they spoil Baltimore in their quest to capture the AFC North?

It’s not likely. The Bengals defense continues to be less than the sum of its parts, plagued with communication and positional discipline issues that belie how experienced and consistent the roster has been. They don’t have an answer for Steve Smith, still a very dangerous receiver in his late 30s. Baltimore’s own defense matches up well against what Cincinnati figures to do without two of its three most important players. The primary reason for watching is to see if any fights break out between these two belligerent rivals.

Ravens 24, Bengals 10

- Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-4): It’s been hard to watch Carson Palmer’s decline this season. The Arizona QB still dials up some great throws here and there, but Palmer is not the same guy we’ve come to expect in the desert the last few years. His adjusted yards per attempt are down 2.5 yards from last season, and he’s already taken 30 sacks compared to 25 last year. His next interception will match his 2015 total too.

If you’re looking for a bright spot and a chance to believe in the Cardinals, Palmer’s two best overall games this year have come against NFC South foes. And Atlanta’s defense has surrendered the most completions, second most yards and touchdowns of any team. Arizona’s defense is better than the numbers look from last week too, giving up just 217 yards and two scores; Minnesota notched a pick-six and a kickoff return TD to bolster the numbers. That shows Arizona is finding ways to lose games, not win them. They’re still dangerous, but also a danger to themselves.

Falcons 32, Cardinals 24

- Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (NL): Add Jay Cutler to the exhaustive Chicago injury list. The quarterback has a shoulder injury that will keep him out for this game, and likely the rest of the season. He’s almost certainly done in Chicago. As much as Bears fans (rightly) complain about Cutler, there is a steep drop from Smokin’ Jay to Matt Barkley. With Alshon Jeffery suspended and Zach Miller out, the weak-armed, panicky Barkley might not top 150 yards passing. Tough to win that way, even at home.

Titans 27, Bears 9 

- San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (-1.5): Texans QB Brock Osweiler should be thrilled to be back in the friendly confines after his Monday Night trip to Mexico City. Osweiler has to deal with both the Raiders defense and fans pointing green lasers at his face throughout the game. San Diego doesn’t have laser beams, but they do have a pass rush. They don’t have a consistent enough offense to beat a Houston offense that consistently runs the ball well and is rising with the development of nifty rookie Braxton Miller.

Texans 23, Chargers 21

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-7.5): As long as Blake Bortles is Jacksonville’s quarterback, I will never pick them to win another game. Never.

Bills 19, Jaguars 12 

- Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders (-3.5): Every week there’s a game where the better team loses. I smell a letdown for Oakland after their prime time MNF win in Mexico. There is no other explanation for how the impressive Raiders lose this one.

Panthers 27, Raiders 24

- New England Patriots at New York Jets (+7.5): Ryan Fitzpatrick is back to pilot the Jets. That sound you hear from New York is the remaining Todd Bowles supporters jumping off the plane. There are no parachutes, golden or otherwise.

Patriots 37, Jets 17

*Note I typed Patriots as “Patritos” no less than 11 times before getting it right

- Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6): A healthy Russell Wilson makes the Seahawks no worse than the third-best team in the league. I like what I’ve seen the last couple of weeks from Tampa Bay, but this is a step up in weight class from the flyweight Bears and cruiserweight Chiefs. If they can land a couple of upper cuts early, Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers can take away the planned Seattle runs. I do think the Seahawks will miss dynamic rookie C.J. Prosise more than you might think. This is a big opportunity for Tampa Bay to make a statement. I think they’ll land some punches but not enough to win the split decision.

Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 20

- Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-4): A huge battle in the AFC West pits Denver’s great defense against Kansas City’s sputtering offense. I looked at this game in a number of angles but that one kept creeping back to the forefront. As much as I like Kansas City’s defense and think they’re going to give Trevor Siemian and the Denver offense worlds of trouble, I just can’t see the Chiefs scoring more than three times. That is not going to be enough on the road in Denver. The variable is a defensive or special teams score, and it will take one of those for Andy Reid and the Chiefs to pull the upset.

Broncos 17, Chiefs 13

Monday Night

- Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5): Green Bay is giving up nearly 40 points per game in its 4-game bender, and the most noticeable culprit is the lack of speed in the linebackers and secondary. And while they do lose rookie ILB Blake Martinez, the Packers defense still should find more relative success against Philly’s offense. The Eagles lack functional speed on offense, and I’m not sure Carson Wentz has progressed enough to get more sophisticated to amp up the attack.

That’s not a shot at Wentz, who remains impressive. Instead it’s more about realistic expectations and adaptations for a rookie from the FCS level who has 31 career starts beyond high school, 10 of them this year in the NFL. I also like the Green Bay front to control the run and disregard play action. The problem for Green Bay is the Eagles can do the same, and their defense is better than the Packers.

Eagles 39, Packers 31

Bonus college picks

Toledo 33, Western Michigan 31. Sorry Coach Fleck…

Alabama 28, Auburn 24

Washington 40, Washington State 33

Michigan 23, Ohio State 20. Michigan’s defensive line vs. Ohio State’s offensive line is the biggest individual advantage in this game, even with the truly awful John O’Korn at QB for the Wolverines against Malik Hooker and a nasty Ohio State secondary.

USC 44, Notre Dame 19

Colorado 30, Utah 27

Florida State 26, Florida 14