Last Week: 8-6, pushing the season forecast to 83-43 with ties counted as losses

This is a rare weekend where the NFL slate looks significantly better than the Saturday plate of college games. Enjoy the diversion!

Thursday Night

- Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-10.5): One sunny spot in this season of gloomy clouds in Cleveland is the emergence of Terrelle Pryor as a viable weapon. And with Corey Coleman coming back, the Browns might finally have some real weapons for whomever their QB of the future will be. I have a feeling this game will be a national display of why Cody Kessler--who has been much better than I expected in limited duty--is not that quarterback.

Ravens 29, Browns 16

Sunday Best

- Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-1): Atlanta brings the high-flying offense to Philadelphia in a critical avian war in the NFC.

The big question here is, can Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense keep pace with MVP front-runner Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and those soaring Falcons? Since the bye week, Philadelphia’s offense has been remarkably consistent. They’ve not scored more than 23 or less than 20. Four of those five games the opposing offense has scored between 24 and 29, all losses for the Eagles. The one game they won was a 21-10 upset over the sluggish Vikings offense.

The Falcons defense has been less terrible over the last few weeks as well, cutting almost a full yard per play off their average. They still give up far too many yards and points, but some of that is a function of other teams racing to keep up with the league-leading Atlanta offense. That’s how this forecast plays out, too.

Falcons 36, Eagles 31

- Seattle Seahawks at New England Patriots (-7.5): It’s not often football fans can get excited about a coaching matchup, but in Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick there is real drama here.

The Seahawks aren’t apt to get much officiating benefit in Foxboro. The advantageous officiating on Monday night directly facilitated a win over Buffalo. Here’s the thing about Seattle: they wear that as a badge of honor. Carroll has done a great job of instilling the venomous chip on his players’ shoulders, and guys like Richard Sherman and Cliff Avril thrive in those conditions.

They’ll need every chip to slow down Tom Brady, Gronk, Legarrette Blount and a focused Patriots attack. Avril and his pass rushing mates will have to force Brady into uncharacteristic bad decisions and finish what pressures they start. Even with that, I don’t see the largely toothless Seahawks offense finding much success. A bad offensive line can work against defenses that are more vanilla, but Belichick and Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia bring the full 31 flavors each and every Sunday.

Patriots 22, Seahawks 12

- Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (-1.5): Based on the records and the recent history, it’s probably surprising to see the Saints favored over the visiting Broncos. My speculation is there is some serious short-term recency bias boosting the Saints.

When we last saw Denver, they were getting their doors blown off by Oakland. Nobody saw the Saints win in San Francisco last week, but one Sunday earlier they impressively stunned the Seahawks. Normally, I would forecast with a longer view here and take the better overall team, but I’m not so sure the micro forecast can’t hold. Drew Brees is playing great, and Michael Thomas is rapidly ascending the Offensive Rookie of the Year rankings with 27 receptions, 266 yards and 2 TDs in the last three games. His emergence gives Brees the variety of weapons that makes him most effective, and the banged up Broncos secondary is abnormally (for them) vulnerable. I don’t trust Trevor Siemian’s wildly inconsistent arm to outscore this New Orleans offense.

Saints 27, Broncos 21

Sunday Rest

- Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1): Another game where the casual fan is probably surprised to see the line as it is. The Bears are not very good, but they’re coming off a bye and showed some defensive teeth in beating Minnesota. They’re also getting healthier and should have Kyle Long, Eddie Royal and Eddie Goldman back in the lineup. Meanwhile the Bucs have lost their top four running backs, have major struggles protecting Jameis Winston and blow too many coverages on defense. A Bears team with less going for it at the time beat a better Tampa Bay team in Raymond James Stadium a year ago, too.

Bears 20, Buccaneers 17

- Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (+2.5): The key for Tennessee is to attack efficiently and consistently on offense. The Titans offensive line matches up well with Green Bay’s strong but banged-up front, and Marcus Mariota is finding guys like Rishard Matthews more effectively in catch-and-run situations.

The magic number for the Titans is five scoring drives with at least two touchdowns. If Mariota can engineer that, Tennessee will send the Packers below .500. Even with no real running backs on the roster and inconsistent play from both Aaron Rodgers and his receivers, the Green Bay offense is dangerous enough to also score 5-6 times against a Titans defense trending in the wrong direction.

Packers 30, Titans 20

- Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-2.5): The battle of my two favorite barbecues pits an improving Carolina defensive unit against an up-and-down Kansas City offense. Few teams have a greater divergence between home and away points than the Chiefs, who are nearly a touchdown worse on the road than when getting home cooking.

Another feather in Carolina’s matchup cap: red zone production. The Panthers rank fifth in red zone touchdown percentage at over 67%. Kansas City is 27th at 44%. In a game where points could be precious, cashing in drives for touchdowns over field goals matters a lot.

Panthers 24, Chiefs 16

- Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (-1.5): Case Keenum versus Ryan Fitzpatrick! Grab some burnt popcorn, flat soda and overcooked hotdogs, gather ‘round the television and soak in the master’s thesis for the Awful White QB twitter account, one of my favorite follows.

Rams 23, Jets 20

- Minnesota Vikings at Washington (-2.5): The luster is off in Minnesota. Now the question is, do the wheels follow?

The Vikings started 5-0 but haven’t won since. Their inability to run the ball is a major issue, but last week’s home loss to Detroit was all on the foot of kicker Blair Walsh. Minnesota brought in several kickers to challenge him. By doing that and subsequently not making a move, I believe GM Rick Spielman has directly undermined the rest of the roster. His teammates clearly don’t have confidence in Walsh, who has missed three extra points and converts field goals at an unacceptable 75% rate.

This game figures to come down to one score. In that situation, I’ll take Washington and Dustin Hopkins over Walsh. I’ll also take Kirk Cousins over Sam Bradford to engineer any potential game-winning drive.

Washington 24, Minnesota 21

- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2): Houston comes off the bye week facing a Jacksonville team which has to seriously consider replacing ineffective QB Blake Bortles. The Jaguars defense deserves more respect, and if they can get some pressure on Brock Osweiler--who is less effective than Bortles more often than not--that could be enough to trip up the AFC South leaders. Tough forecast here; I think it comes down to which quarterback stinks less on this given Sunday.

Texans 24, Jaguars 21

- Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-3.5): I’ve never been to either city, yet I often debate in my head which one I’d rather visit on vacation. The water is warmer in Miami and it’s a much shorter flight from Grand Rapids. I’ve been relatively close to San Diego before, and the beach volleyball player in me would greatly enjoy the action in California if it’s anything close to Huntington Beach. The sunshine is more reliable in SoCal too. Without personal experience, I’ll call the food scenes a push. That’s basically what this game is too, though Ryan Tannehill on the road is never a smart bet.

Chargers 34, Dolphins 30

- Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5): I brought it up earlier this season, but the Steelers are unusually resilient in coming off ugly losses. However, that presumes Ben Roethlisberger is at full speed. He’s not anywhere close to that, and what worries me here for Pittsburgh is that he will be forced to try and keep up with Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and a diverse Dallas offense that can move the ball and score in a variety of ways. I’m still waiting for the overachieving Cowboys defense to slip, but I think it waits another week.

Cowboys 33, Steelers 26

- San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-14): Even though the Browns are winless and the 49ers do have a win, you’d have a very hard time telling me this San Francisco team isn’t the worst NFL squad since the winless 2008 Detroit Lions. The Cardinals are tough to trust, but it would take a monumentally bad effort from several key players for them to lose at home to the Niners.

Cardinals 33, 49ers 12

Monday Night

- Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (-2.5): The Cincinnati Bengals have been around for nearly 50 years, the Giants far longer. Yet this is just the 10th meeting between these two franchises. That’s the fewest for the Bengals against any team which has existed beyond the 1990s.

This actually has relevance for Andy Dalton and the Cincy offense. Check out these splits from earlier this year when Dalton faced off against the other denizens in New York’s stadium…

 

With Tyler Eifert back and some rest coming off the bye week, I like those chances. The Giants youth movement is faring pretty well, but I expect some slip-ups.

Bengals 32, Giants 27 

Bonus college picks

Oklahoma 52, Baylor 40

Texas 30, West Virginia 27

Clemson 33, Pittsburgh 31

Arkansas 26, LSU 24

Michigan 40, Iowa 20

Washington 35, USC 24