Last week: 11-4 for the second consecutive week. 58-25 on the season forecast. 

Thursday Night

- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-9.5): The struggling Packers get exactly what they need to right the ship, a Bears team that just lost at home to lowly Jacksonville. Chicago does get underrated Pernell McPhee back on defense, though it’s not exactly inspiring that Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio flatly stated he doesn’t know what he’ll do with the talented outside LB. I like Green Bay’s defense to have a strong night here. Having said that, the Bears can win if they can run the ball and make their field goals.

Packers 20, Bears 15

Sunday Best

- Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+2.5): The Eagles haven’t won since their Week 4 bye, struggling on offense and giving up too many third down conversions on defense. Last week was the first time Carson Wentz really looked like a questionable rookie at quarterback. Some of that had to do with Washington’s defensive front simultaneously snuffing out the run and getting consistent pressure on Wentz.

Now they face the best defense in the league, and the Vikings are rested in coming off their own bye week. Not exactly the most optimal conditions for Philadelphia to get back on the winning track. Yet I think they will. Why?

I still strongly believe Sam Bradford is due for his flight of Icarus moment anytime now, and Jim Schwartz’s Eagles defense should conquer the Vikings Achilles heel, the offensive line. Philadelphia manufactured two non-offensive touchdowns last week, which tells me they’re dangerous even when the offense sputters.

Eagles 17, Vikings 14 

- New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5): This game was a whole lot more appealing before Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in last week’s loss to Miami. With no Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers stand little chance. It would take a major regression from Tom Brady and his talented TE duo, a scenario extremely unlikely to play out given how poorly the Steelers tackled last week.

Pittsburgh has done a great job in the past of bouncing back from bad losses, but with Landry Jones at the helm against the focused Patriots…not gonna happen.

Patriots 34, Steelers 13

- Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5): If you want to believe the Cardinals are right again after Monday night’s blowout of the hapless Jets, you’re entitled to that opinion. It would be the wrong opinion, but I won’t try and convince you the earth isn’t flat or Bigfoot isn’t real. Don’t stop believing!

Seahawks 24, Cardinals 20

Sunday Rest

- Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Tennessee is inexplicably in second place in the AFC South at 3-3. But in delving deeper into the Titans, maybe it shouldn’t be so surprising. They can run the ball, they have a very good offensive line, they rush the passer quite well, and they draw out the sloppiness in the opponent quite well.

Expect a long, flag-filled affair. The Colts and Titans rank second and third in opposing penalties per game, and both are in the bottom 10 in committing infractions on their own too.

Titans 27, Colts 26

- New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5): The Chiefs nicely handled Oakland’s explosive offense last week. Frequent readers know I always favor teams who face a stylistically similar opponent two weeks in a row; the game plan doesn’t change all that much and they’re more comfortable in what to expect and how to react. Kansas City weather forecast looks completely innocuous with perfect football conditions at 70 degrees and sunny, so the domed Saints disadvantage is mitigated.

Chiefs 30, Saints 27

- New York Giants vs Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) in London: Those of us in the Eastern Time Zone wake up to NFL action, and that’s always a treat. This might actually be a decent game too, as the defenses here will give up big plays. Both teams have playmakers, from Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard to Todd Gurley and Tavon Austin.

The Rams went straight from losing in Detroit to across the pond. It’s an interesting tactical decision for Jeff Fisher and Los Angeles. Maybe it will give them more time to realize they cannot forget about Gurley in the offense as they did at Detroit. Maybe it will give them time to realize trying to start a rumble on the losing end of a kneel down is bush league and horrible karma. I suspect they learn the karma angle courtesy the Giants…as long as Beckham keeps it together in the land of the “other” Beckham.

Giants 20, Rams 17 

- Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-1): The Jets are a mess on both sides of the ball. Between a QB controversy with Geno Smith now (finally) in, injuries and a decided lack of playmaking oomph from the defense, Todd Bowles and his New York ship is sinking quickly. They do still have talent however, and they’re due for a death-gasp strong outing. The Ravens offense has fallen to near the bottom of the league, 30th in yards per play and third down conversions over the last four games. With Joe Flacco’s questionable status, it’s hard to have any confidence in their offense either. Baltimore’s defense is strong enough to carry them, but Terrell Suggs’ injury could be just what the struggling Jets need to get an edge. I see this one being very close.

Jets 20, Ravens 17

- Washington at Detroit Lions (-1.5): My Lions have reeled off two wins in a row over teams entering with winning records. That’s the first time Detroit has accomplished such a feat since Weeks 13-14 of the 2010 season.

Those Lions proceeded to win the two games after that too. Such a streak won’t come easy with the red-hot Redskins in town. Washington ran for 230 yards last week, and Detroit’s defense is downright dismal in the middle of the field. Teryl Austin’s unit will have to create some turnovers, something they’re not adept at (4 in 5 games).

This game holds a lot of significance here in Holland, MI where I live. This is Lions country for the most part, but it also happens to be Kirk Cousins’ hometown. He’s revered here, and the local bars that are actually open on Sundays are typically full of locals in Cousins jerseys. It will be a great Sunday to be out and about here in the 616…

Washington 33, Lions 30 

- Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (NL): The Jaguars have won two in a row, and that fosters optimism. Here’s a rain cloud on the home team: the wins are over Indianapolis and Chicago, two of the four worst teams in the league. The Colts are the only team Jacksonville has even 70 yards rushing against, and they surrendered a season-high in yardage to Brian Hoyer and the Bears.

In short, while I want to believe in a Jaguar rising, both the numbers and the visuals say differently. Of course it’s also hard to buy into the Raiders resurgence with how leaky their defense has been all year.

Jaguars 38, Raiders 35

- San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (-5.5): Atlanta is breaking out one of the coolest uniforms for this one…

 

In only the Chargers would don the sweet powder blue version of their togs, now that would be fantastic!  I like the Falcons improving secondary to do just enough to help Matt Ryan outduel Philip Rivers in the game itself.

Falcons 36, Chargers 31 

- Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-9.5): The Battle of I-71 is not apt to end well for the team at the north end of that trans-Ohio freeway. Cincinnati’s 2-4 record is sadly no fluke, but neither is the Browns being the only remaining winless team. At least the Indians are still playing, Cleveland fans...

Bengals 20, Browns 13 

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5): It speaks volumes about how bad San Francisco is that the lowly Bucs, who will be without top weapons Vincent Jackson and Doug Martin, are still favored on the road. Hard to find a reason to go against the grain here.

Buccaneers 27, 49ers 21 

- Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+2.5): This forecast is cloudy. I don’t expect Miami to win more than one game per month, and they’re coming off a rousing performance in shocking the Steelers. I can’t envision Buffalo winning 5 in a row either, but they’re at four and counting. I really like the offensive rhythm the Bills are in, but it appears Shady McCoy is going to miss the game. So many conflicting cloud masses and computer models, it’s a meteorological nightmare.

Dolphins 24, Bills 20

Monday Night

- Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-7.5): The general narrative on both these teams is they are legit playoff contenders but are held back by limited quarterbacks. Of course Houston’s quarterback left Denver with much fanfare, and for a ridiculous amount of money. In Brock Osweiler’s wake, the Broncos opted to roll with Trevor Siemian.

Neither QB has been more than sporadically effective. Consider them a wash in this matchup, albeit a variable one because if the Osweiler we saw at the end of the miracle comeback over Indianapolis last Sunday night shows up, Houston will roll. That shifts the focus to the rest of the teams, namely defense and the running game. Houston gets the slight edge in running the ball, and Lamar Miller looks great. Denver’s defense is more consistently stout, but the difference is closer than you might think even though the Texans don’t have J.J. Watt.

I do like the Broncos to win here, but the 7.5-point spread seems generous. I expect a close game where the home field and Denver’s better kicker are the difference.

Broncos 23, Texans 21

Bonus college picks!

Virginia Tech 25, Miami 21

Alabama 17, Texas A&M 16

Louisville 39, North Carolina State 30

Arkansas 34, Auburn 28

Western Michigan 33, Eastern Michigan 27, and I’ll be in attendance for this key MAC battle