Last Week: 9-6, which snapped a three-week streak of 9-7 straight up. The season tally is now 36-27. I promise I will use that in a game forecast or two…

If you are in the potential impact zone of Hurricane Matthew, please stay safe and be smart.

Thursday Night

- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5): I wrote about the very real struggles the 1-3 Cardinals face in this week’s $.10, and playing on a short week isn’t likely to help Arizona. The abbreviated recoup time certainly won’t help Carson Palmer and his concussion. Even though Palmer has not been his typical self, there is a significant drop from him to Drew Stanton.

It didn’t get much attention but the Niners suffered a significant injury of their own in the tough loss to Dallas. Linebacker Navorro Bowman, San Francisco’s best defensive player and leader, is out for the year with a torn Achilles. The Niners front is solid but will definitely miss Bowman, the sharp arrow at the top of the spear.

Cardinals 28, 49ers 20

Sunday Best

- Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5): The next time someone regurgitates the old “you have to run the ball to win” cliché, point them at the Vikings. Minnesota is undefeated but ranks dead last in rushing, both yards per game (64) and yards per attempt (2.4).

The Texans are 3-1 and also don’t run the ball well. They’ve yet to score a rushing TD and average just 3.8 yards per attempt, in the bottom third of the league.

While I’m extremely hesitant to trust Sam Bradford to keep it rolling in Minnesota with such dismal run support, I can’t pick against the Vikings' truly outstanding defense at home. The Minnesota D has been my top-scoring fantasy player in two of the first four weeks. They might get it again here if the Texans can’t step up on the offensive line.

Vikings 20, Texans 13

- Washington at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5): The Battle of the Beltway is one of the dreaded “mix of clouds and sun” type of forecast. I could make educated, erudite arguments for either team to win. I could also present multiple reasons and theorems why either Baltimore or Washington will lose.

One note which stood out and made me swing to Washington on the 30-mile, 2-hour roadtrip up the Baltimore-Washington Parkway: yards per play. Washington ranks second in the league and have been pretty consistent in posting big plays in the passing game, the easiest way to inflate that figure. The Ravens rank 27th in yards per play and don’t generate big plays from the passing game; Joe Flacco ranks 31st in yards per attempt. Slow and steady wins a lot of races, but sometimes the hare gets too far out in front. I think that happens here, though Washington is going to miss fiery safety DeAngelo Hall.

Washington 33, Baltimore 30

- Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-6.5): Atlanta has the best offense in the NFL. Denver has the best defense in the NFL.

Let’s play a game where those two are a wash to average. Who wins the other matchups, the special teams and Atlanta’s D versus the Denver offense?

The Broncos have the 5th-best scoring offense in the league at just under 28 points per game. Atlanta ranks 29th in scoring defense, giving up 31 points a game. Neither is a fluke. The Falcons do get a slight advantage in the overall special teams but not enough to tilt the scales.

It would take Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the dynamic RB duo of Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman breaking through against Von Miller, Derek Wolfe, Aqib Talib and the rock solid, deep Denver defense. I think Atlanta will find decent success, but they’re not quite ready to outscore the Broncos in Denver. Should be a real fun game to watch.

Broncos 36, Falcons 31

Sunday Rest

- Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5): The most amazing aspect of the Los Angeles Rams being 3-1 is that their presumed best offensive weapon, Todd Gurley, is having a terrible year. The second-year RB is averaging just 2.6 yards per carry, continuing a downward spiral that started late in his Rookie of the Year 2015 campaign. He has topped 90 yards rushing just once in his last 12 games. On first down rushes this year, Gurley averages exactly one yard per carry.

The point? Something has to give here. Either Gurley will get back on track or the Rams' offense will derail around him. Granted L.A. wins with defense and special teams, but they need more consistent quality production from Gurley to help aid Case Keenum and the passing game. Buffalo has turned in two solid defensive performances in a row, including a shutout in New England. I’ll ride that train here.

Bills 20, Rams 16

- New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (+10.5): Look at it this way, Browns fans…this one should be over quickly. Cleveland somewhat amazingly ranks first in the league in rushing yards per game (149.2) and yards per attempt (5.7). New England is third in yards per game (135.5), somewhat a function of ranking second in attempts per game.

All that running means the clock should keep running. The Dawg Pound denizens should be out of their misery in near-record time. This is Tom Brady’s return game and I expect less rust from the Patriots QB than on a brand new stainless steel frying pan.

Patriots 37, Browns 18

- Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+2.5): One of the funkier statistical oddities on the young season: the Lions have yet to either lose or recover a fumble thru four games. The odds are strongly in favor of some hot fumble action in Ford Field. My guess is the Eagles strong defensive front records a strip sack and return TD on Matthew Stafford. The Detroit QB continues to play well but has an inconsistent cast around him, making it tough to trust the Lions even at home.

I do think the Eagles are primed for a fall from their lofty perch sooner than later. But coming off a bye and facing a defense that cannot cover the middle of the field or get pressure on Carson Wentz, it won’t be this soon.

Eagles 33, Lions 13

- Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (+1): My social media friend Joe Goodberry covers the Bengals, and he’s actively promoted an oddity with QB Andy Dalton. He’s fantastic when playing an opponent that is relatively unfamiliar with him. Dalton tends to light up teams he hasn’t faced in the last two years, which includes this week’s foe:

 

Dallas has the firepower to match Dalton & Co., but the Cincy defense looked a lot more complete with Vontaze Burfict back in the middle last week. The key will be the Bengals pass rush, which dominated Miami’s OL last week. Dallas has a much better OL than the Dolphins, but they’re not playing at as high of a level as most expected. Even so, tough to pick against Dallas at home.

Cowboys 23, Bengals 21

- San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-5.5): Things just got a lot worse for the 1-3 Chargers. Already without top WR Keenan Allen, their best offensive weapon, San Diego lost its best defensive player now too. That would be corner Jason Verrett, who injured his knee. Numerous reports have the sticky cover man out for the year with a torn ACL, though as of press time it is not yet confirmed. They were in trouble even with him against Oakland’s high-powered offense. I’m not sure they have much of a chance without him.

Raiders 39, Chargers 28

- New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7.5): Green Bay comes off its early bye week at home, facing a Giants team that just played on the road on Monday night against the physical Vikings. When Packers' fans wonder why the rest of the NFC North hates them so much, it’s situations like this where the NFL shines its most favorable light on Titletown.

Packers 27, Giants 20

- Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5): The Colts continue to be the most overrated NFL team even as they hover in the 20-23 overall range in most power rankings. The dilapidated Bears are better on both lines and have the biggest matchup advantage in this contest: Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal outside against what’s left of the Indy secondary. I’d run away and hide with the Bears and the points here if I could trust Brian Hoyer to have two good games in a row. I can’t make that leap, but RB Jordan Howard should go off again against an Indy D that just cut its leading tackler in Sio Moore.

Bears 30, Colts 28

- New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5): Ryan Fitzpatrick is due for one of his good games. You know, the type of game that keeps him ensconced as Jets starter even though he can be as abysmal as the last two weeks, where he was responsible for 9 turnovers. But with a banged up receiving corps and RB Matt Forte also significantly less than 100%, it’s not happening. Not in Pittsburgh, where the Steelers defense is gaining momentum.

Steelers 31, Jets 17

- Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-3.5): This game might wind up being played in Nashville as Hurricane Matthew storms towards the southeast US. In what is essentially a coin flip game, the harried status of Miami players wondering what’s going on with their homes is enough to tip the scales to the Titans. I like the TEN offensive line, featuring standout guard Quinton Spain opening big holes for Demarco Murray and Derrick Henry. Meanwhile, no team is worse on third down (27%) than Miami. Interestingly, the Dolphins defense is the 2nd-best at preventing third downs. There will be punts…

Titans 19, Dolphins 17

Monday Night

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5): As of press time it’s unknown whether Cam Newton will play for Carolina. The MVP candidate QB suffered a concussion in Sunday’s loss to Atlanta. Derek Anderson is a functional backup but he cannot come close to doing the great things Newton is proven capable of. Then again, Newton hasn’t been at his best all season either. Getting no practice time isn’t apt to help.

Jameis Winston has also been less than ideal thus far, forcing too many throws and generally not showing the precision of his impressive rookie campaign. The Bucs need their young QB to reemerge as a dynamic force. Winston should get chances against a Carolina defense that doesn’t rush the passer well and also struggles to cover over the top.

This forecast is hedged:

If Newton plays, Carolina wins 23-20

No Newton, Buccaneers 24, Panthers 13