Last week: 9-7. Again. In meteorological terms, getting the same weather three days in a row is a strong indicator of a stagnant front. The insanely premature byes this week should provide just the catalyst I need to break out of the partly cloudy doldrums. And I did get one game 100 percent correct last week, forecasting my Lions to fall in Green Bay 34-27.

Thursday Night

- Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5): Both teams are 1-2 and sorely need a win to keep up with their undefeated division leaders in New England and Baltimore, respectively. The Bengals are not controlling the line of scrimmage on either side of the ball as well as expected, and Miami’s defensive line matches up well with the interior OL issues.

Cincy clearly misses the three receiving weapons who are no longer available for Andy Dalton. Marvin Jones leads the NFL in receiving yards in Detroit, Mohamed Sanu is making plays in Atlanta and Tyler Eifert remains sidelined. Brandon LaFell and Tyler Boyd haven’t been bad by any means, but they don’t yet have the chemistry with Dalton. In this game, I see the Bengals running game doing enough to carry the home team to a much-needed victory.

Meanwhile the Dolphins leading rusher is Ryan Tannehill. There are mitigating circumstances (Arian Foster and Jay Ajayi injuries) and they’re averaging 4.1 yards per carry as a team, but Miami has to find a more reliable and sustainable rushing attack. The Bengals run defense has improved and their scheme makes it tough on a running QB.

Bengals 20, Dolphins 13

Sunday Games

- Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5): There might not be a bigger disappointment so far this season than the Jaguars. The root of much of the problems lies with quarterback Blake Bortles, who has regressed despite having one of the most talented supporting casts in the NFL. My friend and oddly loyal Jaguars fan from Los Angeles, Eric Stoner, wrote a great breakdown on Bortles’ struggles. After reading this, there is no way I’m picking the Jaguars, not even at home against a Colts team that remains overestimated by the general public and especially the national media.

Colts 26, Jaguars 22, but it will be 23-6 in the 4th quarter before the Jaguars offense wakes up. Sorry, Beaux…

- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5): Why is Carolina struggling? One big reason is an inability to protect Cam Newton, who was sacked 8 times against Minnesota. A couple of those were on Cam for holding the ball too long, but he’s been under a barrage of pressure.

Speaking of pressure, right now no other QB is handling it better than Matt Ryan. Matty Ice is playing quite well and using a wide variety of weapons in Atlanta’s more diverse offense. If he’s handling the Carolina pass rush as adeptly as he has in the other games, the Panthers are in trouble. The way Atlanta is running the ball (5.0 yards per carry, 4th in the league), Carolina cannot overcommit to blitzing Ryan.

This is a barometer game for Ron Rivera and the Panthers. They’re 1-2 but the losses are to arguably the two best teams in the league in Denver and Minnesota. The win is over what might be the worst team in the league in San Francisco. Atlanta is the first middle-of-the-pack team they face in 2016. That it’s a division rival should draw out Carolina’s best, but will that be good enough to handle what seems to be a much-improved Falcons team at home?

Falcons 30, Panthers 28

- Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5): Denver continues to gain confidence in Trevor Siemian, who has shown crisp accuracy and solid decision making in his first three NFL starts. Having such a strong defense behind him certainly helps. I would like the Buccaneers more here if they still had enigmatic TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, but his latest transgression cost him his time in Tampa. The Bucs have a better shot here than you might think, but the 40 percent chance of showers for the Broncos isn’t sunny enough for me to take the home team.

Broncos 27, Buccaneers 25 

- Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-6.5): Houston has to deal with the news that All Pro defensive end J.J. Watt is on injured reserve and likely gone for the season. When teams lose such an integral piece, they often can rise up and cover the hole for a week before the weight of the loss crushes down. I think that happens here, and it helps that the Titans don’t have the playmakers in the passing game to hit the Texans often enough to win.

Texans 34, Titans 20 

- Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets (+3.5): This game is as unpredictable as Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who scored Pro Football Focus’ highest grade in Week 2 and lowest grade in Week 3. Given Russell Wilson’s lingering injuries and Seattle’s ongoing offensive line woes, good luck having any confidence here. Even so, I have a hard time seeing Seattle fall to 1-3.

Seahawks 16, Jets 13

- Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+2.5): The only way the depleted Bears have a chance to break into the win column is if the visiting Lions sleepwalk through the opening quarter or commit a mind-boggling amount of penalties. Fortunately for Chicago, Detroit has done one or the other in the last two weeks. It could happen.

I don’t think it will, however. The Bears defense would have trouble matching up with a sharp Matthew Stafford and a revitalized Detroit offensive line even if at full strength. Chicago is missing more defensive starters than it is starting. Hard to win when undrafted rookies on their third teams are starting against the likes of Marvin Jones and Eric Ebron, a decent candidate for Most Improved Player.

Lions 33, Bears 24 

- Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5): The Ravens are undefeated and looking strong on both sides of the ball. They’re also healthy, which is a rare commodity in 2016. Oakland’s offense can be explosive, but this is an early start in very hostile territory. Then there is the defensive discrepancy. Baltimore ranks 2nd in yards allowed per game, giving up a full 220 yards a week fewer than the 32nd-ranked Raiders. Those waters will level over time, but I don’t see the waves being kind to visiting Oakland.

Ravens 37, Raiders 31

- Cleveland Browns at Washington (-8.5): Nothing against Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense, which seemed to awaken last week. But I’m not sure this Washington defense is 8.5 points better than anyone. Cleveland showed some life with Terrelle Pryor as a weapon, and they continue to quietly run the ball pretty well. The Browns’ 5.7 yards per carry is 2nd best in the league. While the number is inflated, the ranking in no fluke. Washington gives up almost 5 yards per carry, and that’s not fluke either.

Washington 34, Browns 28           

- Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5): The Patriots face one more game without the suspended Tom Brady at the helm. With Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett both questionable with various injuries, New England has floated the idea of starting wideout Julian Edelman at QB.

Garoppolo threw passes in Wednesday’s practice but his status for Sunday remains unknown. There is enough grist for the coaching mill there to make the Ryan Brothers prepare for Garoppolo, and that makes their task even harder.

Rex Ryan, the Bills head coach, is 4-11 head-to-head against Bill Belichick. That’s actually not bad but it doesn’t really fit the widely held narrative that “Rex has Belichick’s number”. His Bills have played 3 good quarters all season, though in those quarters Buffalo looked fantastic. New England will be ready and can weather the Tyrod Taylor storm, though I do expect Buffalo’s offense to find some success with the dual-threat QB.

Patriots 20, Bills 18

- Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5): The 49ers meager offensive weaponry stands little chance of keeping up with Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and a supporting cast for the rookies that seems quite comfortable in their roles. Watch for the back door cover, but this could also be a blowout if the Dallas D can force an early takeaway or two.

Cowboys 27, 49ers 16

- Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8.5): Just how little do the books respect the Rams? The current NFC West leaders, a team who consistently play division foes quite well under Jeff Fisher, are more than a touchdown underdogs against an Arizona team that completely wet the bed last week. Carson Palmer has shown some rust, and the Cardinals defense is having serious trouble getting off the field (30th in 3rd down defense).

If you’re rolling with Arizona here, you’re betting the Cardinals solve very legit and apparent issues on both sides of the ball, pretty much at the same time. I’ll buy fixing one side but not both. However, consider the Cardinals are still +3 in turnover margin while the Rams are an even zero. Only two teams have committed more penalties for more yards than LA, so the potential for aiding the enemy is certainly there. I also trust Bruce Arians will rally his team after last week’s embarrassing loss to Buffalo.

Cardinals 23, Rams 17 

- New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-4.5): The Saints come off an emotional home loss on Monday night where their defense tried hard but just didn’t have the horses to run with Atlanta. Now they have to travel across the country on a short week to play San Diego, where Philip Rivers is playing extremely well. Tall order for Drew Brees & Co.

Chargers 37, Saints 31

- Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5): How does Pittsburgh bounce back from the unmitigated thrashing at the hands of the Eagles last week? History tells us they’ll rebound just fine. Mike Tomlin’s teams have shown remarkable resiliency in the past when coming off a poor outing. I expect a much better showing from Big Ben, and getting Le'Veon Bell back from his 3-game suspension definitely provides a boost.

The one caveat I have in riding the Steelers hard here is their worst game last year came at the hands of these Chiefs. They couldn’t stop the run or take care of the ball. Kansas City has shown a strong propensity to let the opponent beat itself, and their style of offense fosters consistency. The home team will not find this one easy.

Steelers 24, Chiefs 21 

Monday Night

- New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5): I have a sinking sense this game will be decided by which quarterback avoids the catastrophic mistake. Sam Bradford has started well for Minnesota, while Eli Manning threw the Giants into the loss column last week. Manning got his bad game out of his system. Bradford is overdue for one. The Vikings are very deep and formidable on defense, but the Giants downfield passing attack can beat them.

Giants 23, Vikings 20