The AFC version can be found here. Now it’s time for the NFC and a quick early look at the season win total over/under propositions from the sports books.

- Arizona Cardinals, 9.5 wins

Arizona largely returns the same cast from a team that won 13 games. All those weapons for Carson Palmer in Bruce Arians’ aggressive offense will be hard to stop, even with some questions on the line. Tyrann Mathieu’s knee injury is a real concern because the secondary is already the thinnest group on the roster and he’s the catalyst of the entire D. They finish with 5 of 7 on the road, and for an older team that could be an issue if they don’t rack up early wins. I still like the over at -140 but it’s not as confident as I expected when I sat down to write this.

- Atlanta Falcons, 7.5 wins

The Falcons started 5-0 by scoring at least 24 points in every game. They did not top that figure once again in losing 8 of the final 11, and the lack of diversity in the passing game and a death spiral of rushing offense were squarely to blame. The under-the-radar additions of Alex Mack and Mohamed Sanu will help some, but the defense is relying on continuity more than an influx of fresh talent. The brutal early schedule won’t help. I think the floundering Falcons we saw for most of 2015 carries over and this team will be fortunate to win 6, let alone 8. Hit the under at -140.

- Carolina Panthers, 10.5 wins

The defending conference champs won't have a 15-1 again, but it’s easy to see them winning at least 11 if the core of the defense and MVP candidate Cam Newton all stay healthy. The key here is a 3-game stretch just before the bye week where they play all three NFC South foes, two on the road. If they take at least two of those three, they’re cruising to the over. If not, the road trips all over the country post-bye look a lot more ominous. The paucity of offensive additions concerns me, though getting Kelvin Benjamin back helps. A tepid vote for the over.

- Chicago Bears, 7.5 wins

Chicago won the draft weekend just up Lakeshore Drive from Soldier Field, and the hope is the impressive rookie cast blends well with an emerging defensive front to carry an offense that has some talent but also a lot of question marks. I don’t trust the offense or the young secondary enough to take the over, but if the youth movement clicks this is a team to be reckoned with. Pass unless you really love (or hate) Jay Cutler with a host of unproven options.

- Dallas Cowboys, 9.5 wins

For years, taking the under for the early Dallas lines has been a safer bet than hitting water falling out of a boat. But with Tony Romo apparently back for more and my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year in Ezekiel Elliott running behind a great O-line, the offense should be very good. The defense hung tough last year despite some injuries and the Romo-less ineptitude on the other side of the ball. I smell a big bounce back year, and finishing with four eminently winnable games helps lead me to the over.

- Detroit Lions, 7 wins

Another team with a tale of two seasons, the Lions started off 1-7 before making some midseason tweaks and finishing 6-2 with the league’s 3rd-best point differential over that time period. Losing Calvin Johnson deadens that real momentum, but the post-bye Matthew Stafford was one of the five best QBs. If that Stafford carries over and the starting defense stays healthy, this is a playoff team even sans Megatron. Would you bet on that, given the inglorious history of this franchise? Me neither…but I wouldn’t touch the under either.

- Green Bay Packers, 10.5 wins

This is perhaps the best all-around roster Aaron Rodgers has had in a few years, as long as Jordy Nelson is healthy and Eddie Lacy isn’t fat. The last two drafts have provided a much-needed influx of legit talent on defense, and it’s the guys like Damarious Randall, Kenny Clark and Blake Martinez that will help insure against Rodgers’ surprisingly down 2015 not being a fluke. But if we’re getting the same imprecise, harried Rodgers of late last year, the entire house collapses. I would never bet against Rodgers, but I’m not betting for him to lead this team to 11 wins either.

- Los Angeles Rams, 7.5 wins

A patchwork offensive line, an iffy receiving corps (I’m being generous) and one of the more predictable coaching entities in Jeff Fisher is supposed to miraculously coalesce around Jared Goff? Sure, the defensive front remains outstanding and the special teams are too. And Todd Gurley might lead the league in rushing yards; he certainly will lead in attempts. But I trust in the rest of this offense about as much as I do Gary Johnson’s chances of winning the Presidency. I love the under at -140.

- Minnesota Vikings, 9.5 wins

How much do you believe in Teddy Bridgewater? That’s really the only question you should have, because the rest of the team is the best roster in the NFC North--on paper, anyway. If you think Teddy takes the proverbial next step, the -115 on the over is free money. If you have reservations that he is what he is, or that Adrian Peterson declines even 10%, the -115 on the under is pretty appealing given their schedule. I’ll be shocked if this team doesn’t win wither 9 or 10 games, so I’m not touching that 9.5 number.

- New Orleans Saints, 7 wins

The defense can only get better. It has to be better, but the improvement figures to be relative. They gave up 45 passing touchdowns last year, but also almost 5 yards per carry. Now look at the early schedule and what do you see? Pass-heavy teams with elite wideouts. I do like the concept of Drew Brees having one more really productive year, and the rest of the offense is underrated. But unless the defense improves to better than 25th or so, besting 7 wins is going to be a real challenge. The starting personnel could make that happen with new DC Dennis Allen. Tough to bet either way on New Orleans.

- New York Giants, 8 wins

A round number is an indication the bookies aren’t all that interested in taking your money, and with a new coaching regime and a host of roster changes it’s easy to see why with New York. The newbies on defense are the biggest factor, but if the running game and receivers not named Odell Beckham don’t do a lot more this is still a 6-10 team. Too many variables to bet with any confidence; wait for them to light up the first couple of preseason games and the number to rise to 8.5 or even 9 and hit the under later.

- Philadelphia Eagles, 7.5 wins

We don’t know who the quarterback will be. They don’t have a true No. 1 receiver, though the depth of pass catching options and a strong (if Jason Peters is well) offensive line means if Sam Bradford, Chase Daniel or even Carson Wentz gets hot and avoids turnovers, the Eagles could score some points. The defensive depth is abysmal, however, and a rookie head coach with the prickly Jim Schwartz as his Defensive Coordinator makes for an interesting mix. The under value here is -160, which is essentially begging you to take it. Note that the number has already dropped to as low as 6.5 at some offshore books. Follow that trend.

- San Francisco 49ers, 5.5 wins

Far and away the weakest overall roster in the NFC, and they’re making a radical change from the impersonal meat salesman in Jim Tomsula to the go-go smoothie shuckster in Chip Kelly. Don’t overthink this one, the under is the easy play. I can envision a 2-14 season.

- Seattle Seahawks, 10.5 wins

The biggest reason I worry about the “over” here is their rather alarming inability to beat the Rams. To get 11 wins, a team needs to feast on inferior divisional opponents. I’m not all that concerned about losing Marshawn Lynch (in C.J. Prosise I trust), but the ongoing experiments along the line still raises a skeptical eyebrow. The depth in the back seven of the defense is problematic, too. This is a very strong team but also one with exploitable weaknesses, and because of that I lean a little toward the under.

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7.5 wins

If the Bucs are to improve two wins from last year’s 6-10, it will come thanks to Jameis Winston and a more impressive set of weapons than advertised. Adding Vernon Hargreaves at corner will help solidify the secondary. Then again, they had a ridiculously easy schedule last year and only won 6. They won’t be favored in four of the five pre-bye games, and the final three are no picnic either. They might be a lot better but it might not show in the win column. Tough to bet on the over, but the under seems overpriced at -135 as well.

- Washington, 7.5 wins

The bookies are not believers in Kirk Cousins. I get that, but I also really like the improving defensive personnel. Adding Josh Doctson helps build in a safety net for Cousins. There are still depth issues all over the place, but if these starters were in Baltimore and not Washington most folks would have no problem picking them to win at least 9 games. Can they overcome the spate of recent issues in sustaining success? I’d bet on it.