Since it’s been a few weeks from the last $.05, here’s a little something as many of you kick off Spring Break. My own kids don’t get free until this Friday, but they’re already poised for a much-needed break.

The 2016 NFL Draft is a little over a month away and that dominates my football mind at this point. That doesn’t mean there isn’t room for some other thoughts…

$.01--The Cleveland Browns signed Robert Griffin III on Friday, ending days of speculation about the former Washington quarterback’s fate. The deal is reportedly for $15M over two years, with $6.75M guaranteed and a $3.5M signing bonus.

In essence, the Browns have granted Griffin a pretty expensive one-year tryout to prove his incredible rookie campaign in 2012 was not a fluke. Since that time, he’s never really been healthy and the offense around him changed away from what he does best. Washington kept him in mothballs last season rather than risk paying a $16M guaranteed payout if he were to get injured once again.

I like the move for Cleveland. Griffin is exactly the type of quarterback who doesn’t hit the market very often. He’s young, has already proven he can take a relatively uninspiring supporting cast to a playoff berth and has a chip on his shoulder the size of an airport runway. It’s hard to recall but in their rookie seasons he was no worse than Andrew Luck’s equal, the third-rated passer in the NFL.

 

If at first you don’t succeed, try and try again. In Cleveland’s case, try again and again and again, and then again. Griffin will be the Browns’ 24th starting quarterback since 1999, a number that doubles (at least) just about every other franchise. On paper, he is the most promising one since the second quarterback on that last, 1999 No. 1 overall pick Tim Couch. Somewhat ironically, Couch’s career was derailed thanks to injuries and a decided lack of playmaking talent around him.

For this latest experiment to work, Hue Jackson must tailor his offense to Griffin’s strengths. He’s always been great at attacking the edges with the dual threat of the run and pass. Receivers in layers to provide spacing and options worked quite well, as did getting the ball out quickly. Griffin struggles with indecision when in the pocket or when his first read or two isn’t there.

It’s incumbent on Griffin himself to protect himself better. He takes an inordinate amount of hellacious hits for such a mobile guy. At minimum, he must learn how--and when--to slide. That won’t be easy, because it was his willingness to make the risky play that drove Griffin to the Heisman trophy and wild success at Baylor, and to some extent in Washington too.

$.02--Cleveland currently holds the No. 2 pick in the draft, but in acquiring the No. 2 pick in the 2012 NFL draft they no longer seem in an arranged marriage to select yet another quarterback.

This seems like rational logic, but keep in mind this is a franchise which has defied logic and rational thought for years. Just because they appear to have the quarterback position solved with real potential for years of stability, don’t expect the latest incarnation of the Browns front office to fail and hedge their bets.

Veteran plugger Josh McCown remains on the roster as the seasoned backup, insurance for Griffin getting hurt once again. There are rumors McCown is heading out of town, though the market for a 37-year-old, oft-injured journeyman backup who has lost 17 of his last 19 starts seems pretty barren. McCown is a very temporary bandage as a backup, nothing more.

And that’s why I still think the Browns are taking a quarterback with their first pick in the draft. Moreover, I strongly believe that QB is Carson Wentz from North Dakota State. Sources in and around both the Browns and Wentz have made those dots pretty easy to connect, and I don’t claim to be the first to do so.

Even though it seems superfluous to select a(nother) QB so high after just signing Griffin, taking Wentz specifically does make quite a bit of sense. Why? Let’s connect more dots…

  • Wentz is a greenhorn, with just 612 career passes at the FCS level. That’s absurdly low for a first-round QB even from a top FBS program. He needs more seasoning than it takes to make kale seem remotely edible.
  • Griffin’s deal is for two years, but the Browns have some ability to get out of it after one year if Wentz proves ready…or if RG3 flops.
  • Wentz has the athletic ability to do the same things Griffin does, which means the offensive system and scheme won’t need to change if/when the quarterback does.
  • By the time Wentz is ready in 2017 or ’18, the front office will have had more time to stock up on offensive playmakers, not to mention rebuilding the offensive line that just lost Pro Bowl center Alex Mack and could deal Joe Thomas before the end of next month’s draft.

If this new Browns regime of Sashi Brown, Paul DePodesta and Jackson gleans anything from the prolonged missteps of this sad franchise, it has to be that fixing the quarterback problem is the paramount virtue. Tabbing Griffin is a good start, but they’d be foolish to not have a viable Plan B better than the latest aging, journeyman backup or No. 22 overall pick…which could very well be Connor Cook in this draft.

My personal choice is for the Browns to hedge their bets not with Wentz but instead take a more proven quarterback who also won big at the FCS level, but also won at the FBS level and offers a very similar and particular set of skills that makes him a perfect insurance plan for Griffin: Vernon Adams. And it won’t cost the Browns anything more than their 3rd-round pick, only because Adams is just 5’11”. If Adams was even 1.5” taller and 10 pounds heavier there is no doubt in my mind he would be a first-round pick. Picture all the playmaking flair and je ne se quoi of Johnny Manziel, only with an incredibly respected person and leadership presence instead of, well, Johnny Football. That’s Adams. 

$.03--It didn’t get the most publicity, but perhaps the most impactful rule change approved at the recent owner’s meetings in Boca Raton is the subtle change in injured reserve. In years past, the NFL has allowed each team one player to be placed on injured reserve-designated to return. This allowed a player with a shorter-term injury (a broken wrist as an example) suffered early in the year to come back after missing a minimum of eight weeks.

The rub was, the team had to declare who that one player was at the time of injury. The rule tweak removed that stipulation. Now teams can wait and see if the player is recovering on schedule, or if the backup taking over for them winds up being acceptable and a greater needs springs up elsewhere.

I applaud the change. Too often teams gambled on a player’s recovery and lost. As an example, last year Dallas placed Tony Romo on the IR/DR list and he never returned. The same was true of Alex Carter in Detroit. Other players who were placed on the season-ending IR were available for those teams, but they couldn’t play because the team was handcuffed.

This is a step in the right direction, a more radical overhaul of the arcane injured reserve rules. The NFL is the sport with the fewest games in the shortest season, yet it has the most prohibitive injury rules. Once a player goes on IR, other than the one now-malleable designation the player’s season is over. Moving to a system more like the other sports, where a player can be out for four, six or eight weeks is something the NFL must do as it goes forward. The only other option is to expand rosters, both on game days and overall. That’s not something the owners want, so modifying the IR is a nice bone to throw to the often-injured players.

$.04--I’ve received a great deal of feedback on the draft pieces I’ve written so far this season, and I’m happy to report that most of it is positive. Thanks for that. Still, it’s important to address some of the more critical notes. I’ll keep the originating comments anonymous, but y’all know who you are…

--On Jaylon Smith, I know some of my colleagues are trumpeting his aggressive rehabilitation from his devastating knee injury. They’re not wrong, but they’re also ignoring the nerve damage that has the NFL so gravely concerned. I’ve talked to folks at several different NFL teams and consulted with two orthopedists, including one who is treating my own (thankfully minor) knee issue. The most optimistic prognosis for Smith is that the nerve heals by the beginning of the season (some nine months after the initial injury) and he spends the rest of what would be his rookie season strengthening the leg and getting the knee fully stable. Even then, a full recovery to the athletic beast that made him a surefire top 10 pick--one AFC team told me he was the No. 1 player on their board pre-injury--is “not realistic”, to quote a source from that same team. I cringe when I see fans still clamoring for Smith in the late first round. He will not be drafted before the third round at the very earliest, and to expect him to be the defensive demon he was at Notre Dame is extremely unfair to Smith himself.

--On why I like Paxton Lynch as my No. 1 QB, my more expansive answer above my evaluation of his skill and potential is that I tend to finish my quarterback evals quite early in the process. My scouting report on Lynch was done two days after Memphis’ final regular-season game. The same was true of Jared Goff at Cal, Connor Cook at Michigan State, Vad Lee at James Madison and Christian Hackenberg at Penn State. My goal is to wrap up the quarterbacks before the hype process, both positive and negative, takes hold. I don’t get to do that with every QB; I needed to see both Carson Wentz and Vernon Adams in person before finalizing their evals. But I’m very cognizant of scouting the quarterbacks in my own bubble. I don’t read anyone else’s takes on them, other than the occasional Twitter discourses, until I’m secure with my evaluation. I’d like to say that’s true of every position, but it’s not. At quarterback, I make damn sure my opinions are mine and mine alone. I’ll live with the results. I was an outspoken proponent of Cam Newton and critical of both Christian Ponder and Jake Locker in 2011. While I really liked Andrew Luck in 2012 I was less bullish than just about everyone else that he had much room for further growth and that take has been validated. And I’ll let my own words speak for themselves from 2013…

--On why I don’t project greatness for Laquon Treadwell, this one is pretty straightforward. There is this mythos that he is a physical monster like Calvin Johnson. He’s not. Treadwell is 6’2” and played at about 215 pounds. He’s shorter than Michael Thomas (the Ohio State edition). While Treadwell has not run, his 40-yard dash time estimates to the upper 4.5 range. That makes him among the slowest wideouts who will be drafted. His drop rate in 2015 ranks near the bottom of the prominent wideouts (only Will Fuller at Notre Dame was worse). He was vastly inferior on contested catches compared to Josh Doctson or Corey Coleman even though Treadwell outweighs (but doesn’t outleap) both. In short, I can find you at least one other top 10-in-class wideout who does any one skill better than Treadwell. I can’t find any one thing he does better than all the others.

$.05--I hear all sorts of draft rumors this time of year, and I get them from just about every angle. From agents to reporters to scouts I see after pro days to guys who think they might know something trying to make a name for themselves, my BS filter is thoroughly tested on a daily basis.

I used to chase many of those rumors, trying to get scoops or be one step ahead of the game. Too often, I got burned. One of the things that I’ve learned is that if I hear something from only one place, it’s probably misinformation. Most of the time it isn’t anything nefarious, just people trying to bounce ideas or get a reaction.

Just in the past week, I have heard all of the following rumors from one place or another:

- The Titans are trading the first pick to Dallas, who will take Carson Wentz to sit and learn behind Tony Romo before eventually taking over. Tennessee would still get Ole Miss tackle Laremy Tunsil at the fourth spot, or so the story goes. Never mind that San Diego, picking third, desperately needs an upgrade at left tackle…

- The Eagles are definitely taking Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott at the No. 8 spot.

- The Eagles are definitely not taking Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott at the No. 8 spot.

- San Francisco will do whatever they can to secure Cal QB Jared Goff

- San Francisco prefers Paxton Lynch to Goff and is among the growing parade of teams who don’t see Goff as being a great prospect

- Chicago is looking to trade back from the No. 11 spot. They may or may not have a taker in the Rams at 15, who are looking to move up to make sure they land Paxton Lynch. The Bears are either targeting Clemson edge rusher Shaq Lawson, in which case they need to be in front of Detroit at 16, or Georgia pass rusher Leonard Floyd, in which case they need to be in front of Atlanta at 17, or Ohio State left tackle Taylor Decker, in which case they also need to be ahead of both Detroit and Atlanta, as well as the Colts at 18. #sources.

Here’s the deal--I have a lot of pretty educated guesses as to what is going to happen over the next five weeks. A lot of us in the draft and national media do. But when April 28th comes, we will all be surprised at what all transpires. And I like it that way. The intrigue, the thrill of not knowing, it trumps the excitement of knowing everything a few days ahead of time.