Notre Dame perennially churns out NFL talent every year, and Brian Kelly and his staff have earned a reputation for developing smart, scheme-versatile football players. Despite a rash of injuries at so many key spots, the Irish earned a berth in the Fiesta Bowl. Along the way they fought valiantly against national runner-up Clemson on the road in a literal hurricane, dropping games to the Tigers and Rose Bowl champion Stanford by two points each.

The NFL pipeline continues in 2016. Notre Dame features several strong prospects, even with the unfortunate injury to the top dog in Jaylon Smith. They were a fun team to watch in games against Texas, Virginia, Clemson, Stanford, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, USC and Ohio State.

Jaylon Smith--It’s requisite to begin any conversation about the linebacker with the phrase “athletic freak”. The shoe certainly fits, as Smith is one of the most impressive athletes to hit the draft in some time.

Unfortunately the athletic arc is on hold, at least temporarily. Smith tore up his knee in a gruesome injury suffered in January’s Fiesta Bowl. He tore his ACL and LCL, the same injury suffered by South Carolina RB Marcus Lattimore. There is some debate about whether or not there is nerve damage, but it’s abundantly clear to NFL teams he will not play at all in 2016. As with Lattimore, there is a fair chance Smith never gets back on the field again.

In talking to one NFL defensive coordinator at the Combine in Indianapolis, he told me his team removed Smith from any consideration due to medical reasons. That team is not alone.

There is no guarantee that Smith will ever get back to his old self. It certainly will not happen within the two years. Smith would have ranked as my No. 16 overall player pre-injury and a surefire first half of first round pick as a versatile, speedy linebacker with explosiveness and length. Now I would not draft him, for the simple reason draft picks are too precious to risk on a player who won’t contribute anything for the first half of his rookie contract, and the odds are against him ever being an impact talent.

I know he has said he’ll be back. I know everyone who loved him during his Irish career and/or as a draft prospect wants to believe No. 9 will bounce back and be his old self in another year. I’d love to believe in that, too. I’d love to write the Jaylon Smith comeback story. But the reality is NFL teams who are trying to win both now and later don’t have the time to wait. I’ll say this here confidently: Smith will not be drafted before the third round, and the odds are much higher he won’t be drafted at all than he goes in the top 100. Don’t shoot the messenger. I can’t begin to tell you how devastating the NFL teams interpreted his medical evaluation, not to mention his painful movement, at the Combine.

Draft projection: Hard to know, but it won’t be before the late third round.

Ronnie Stanley--Divergent opinion alert! Most of the draft cognoscenti will tell you Ronnie Stanley is a can’t-miss, future Pro Bowl talent at offensive tackle and eminently worthy of a top-10 overall pick. While I believe Stanley can be a very effective NFL tackle, I have very real concerns about his ceiling.

First, the good. Stanley has outstanding length and is very quick to fire out his long arms and engage the defender, especially in pass protection. He’s 6’6” and blessed with over 35” arms. Many times a long-levered lineman can struggle with balance, but Stanley is very adept at keeping his center of gravity and remaining square to the outside attack. That helps him against rushers who try to cross his face. His hand placement is often perfect and always quick. Few tackles in recent memory are as quick-footed out in space, and he has the sustainable movement to make an impact far down the field.

 

Now, the questions. He really struggled with power and core strength. Stanley had major issues with Virginia’s Trent Corney, a body-building Canadian defensive end who can bench press a Buick but doesn’t offer much to follow it up. The book got out to bull rush Stanley, and it was far more effective than the futile quest to get around the edge. Stanley also is surprisingly poor at down blocking in the run game. So masterful with his feet and balance on the outside, he lunges and overreaches when trying to pin inside. Ixnay on any potential move to guard.

Then there are the penalties. He had a handful of false starts, a couple of personal fouls and myriad holds, a few of which got flagged. It doesn’t get any worse than this for No. 78…

 

Granted that’s Shaq Lawson, a player who will go in the same approximate draft range and who embarrassed many an offensive tackle this year. But Stanley was a penalty machine against lesser foes, too:

 

This flag issue reminds me a great deal of Andrus Peat from a year ago. The Stanford behemoth was widely projected as a top 5 overall prospect but “fell” to the Saints at 13 overall after leading the nation in pre-snap penalties as a senior. Guess who did that in 2015?

The comparison ends there, as Peat was a power pig who struggled with outside agility, the polar opposite of Stanley. And NFL teams certainly value protecting the quarterback at all costs more than being an A-plus (or even C-minus, as is Stanley’s case) run blocker at tackle. Stanley is well-coached and comes from a program noted for producing NFL-ready offensive linemen, and that raises his floor quite high. It’s the ceiling where I scrape him lower than most, and a lackluster Combine and blah reviews of his interviews and intensity only reaffirms my doubts.

Stanley ranks as my 34th (as of 3/5) overall prospect, and for a team in need of pass protection upgrade at left tackle I would bump that up as worthy of a late first-round pick. He’ll be an effective tonic against the speedier, lightweight outside rushers but struggle more than many expect against bigger, stronger, more versatile defenders.

Draft projection: 10-20 overall

Will Fuller--Perimeter speed is a major asset in today’s NFL, and Will Fuller has that in spades. He timed a 4.33 in the 40-yard dash at the Combine, and that blazing time is absolutely validated by game film. The 6’, 180 pound wideout has the great combination of both sudden speed and long speed. That gives him the ability to devour the coverage cushion and still pull away from the safety help over the top. In seeing Notre Dame in person, it really is impressive how often Fuller smokes the deep coverage even when the ball doesn’t come his way.

Always remember the primary job of a wideout is to catch the ball. Alas, that’s where Fuller struggles. Watching him try to both track the ball and then secure it away before the defense catches up often makes for entertaining viewing, as his small hands and relative lack of confidence in them forced Irish fans to fondle their lucky charms while the ball was in the air headed his way.

 

The obvious comparison is Ted Ginn Jr., and not to be cliché but it’s a good fit. Fuller will provide the explosive big plays and the defense must account for his deep speed on every snap, but the cost of doing business is that he’ll drop one out of every 9 passes thrown his way. That number rises to one in 6 on throws longer than 20 yards. Fuller is a better overall route runner, with more wiggle and varying speeds than Ginn, though he doesn’t offer the boon of being a return man and isn’t as effective of a blocker as Ginn was coming out. For a team looking for a vertical threat to create spacing dynamics and blessed with a QB who can deliver the deep strike, Fuller brings enough value to consider in the early third round. I highly doubt he lasts that long.

Draft projection: 20-40 overall

C.J. Prosise--For a guy who has only played running back for one season, and had to be talked into making the move from wide receiver, Prosise definitely impressed.

The Petersburg, VA native showed surprising vision and toughness as a runner. Those are the hardest qualities to develop at the position, but they came naturally for Prosise. Look at the patience and vision on this inside run.

 

He showed the acceleration to get the edge, as well as the open-field speed to do something once he attained it. At 6’1” and 220 pounds, his legit 4.48 speed (at the Combine) makes him a real handful. Even better, he runs with a forward lean that reduces his surface area and somewhat mitigates his height. His balance for a taller back is exceptional, notably at full gallop. It reminds me of Robert Smith in his Vikings heyday, a north/south runner who could take a shoulder at top speed and not get thrown off course.

The downside here is that he has only played the position for 11 games. That just isn’t enough of a sample size to fully judge things like pass protection or short-yardage effectiveness. And he didn’t make it through a full season, missing one game with a concussion and all but one play of two others with an ankle injury.

Despite being a wideout by trade, he only caught 52 passes in his three years in South Bend and wasn’t noted for being sure-handed. He doesn’t have return experience, though he did notch 15 special teams tackles in his first two years. Because he’s not apt to starting at RB right away, making a special teams impact is imperative for Prosise.

I love the long-term projection at running back. All the natural ability is evident in an athletically gifted package. If Prosise proves he can handle the ancillary parts of the position beyond just toting the rock, you’re looking at a guy who could run for 1250 yards at 4.8 YPC and also chip in 400 receiving yards. His ceiling is that high. I wouldn’t hesitate to take Prosise in the second round.

Draft projection: 3rd-4th round

Nick Martin--The Dallas Cowboys struck gold with Martin’s older brother Zack, an above-average starter at right guard from the second he arrived in JerryLand two drafts ago. Zack was a tackle in college but wound up being a great guard prospect. Nick has predominately played center in South Bend, but he too might wind up being a high-end guard in the NFL.

Nick is not his brother, however. He doesn’t move with the easy fluidity or quickness afoot. A knee injury suffered in late 2013 slowed him and he’s never fully regained the agility or ability to microburst in the run game as he once did. His adjustment to lacking his former agility has been a visible struggle at times, notably against more powerful interior rushers. There are times where he’s firing his hands but isn’t as close to the defender as he expects because of his limited range, and it causes him to be top-heavy.

Fortunately those times are a distinct minority. His outstanding hand placement shines through in every game. While other centers are quicker to get out to the second level, Martin stands out for his ability to engage and destroy once out in space. The Indianapolis native plays with a nasty disposition, always looking for a scrap. Yet he’s also quite heady with his football IQ, able to make the correct pre-snap calls and quickly adjust and adapt within a play.

A team wanting a smart, feisty center will love Martin. He does have experience at guard and because he does have anchor strength and the ability to seek and destroy on the move, No. 72 could have appeal there for teams too. He’s an upright 6’4”, which could be an issue for some teams at center.  If the lost agility and quickness from the knee injury ever comes fully back, Martin has the ability to be a perennial Pro Bowl talent. Even if it doesn’t, you’re looking at an immediate quality starter along the interior offensive line. What team couldn’t use that out of a second-round pick?

Draft projection: Late 2nd-mid 3rd round

Sheldon Day--Day is a very effective defensive lineman at the college level. He’s both quick and fast, two related but mutually exclusive qualities. His ability to seize the leverage battle against blockers with lightning efficiency, using his 6’1” size to his distinct advantage. In line with Geno Atkins and Aaron Donald, he’s often completing his second step before the blocker in front of him has finished his first. Decent hand usage and a strong shoulder core help Day continue to dictate the action.

It worked quite well in 2014, even better in 2015. He doubled his TFL numbers (15, from 7.5) and quadrupled his sack total (from 1 to 4) while worming his way into the backfield much more frequently. Day figured out how to launch himself with more force up into the blockers’ chest. His hand usage also improved, showing real dedication to his craft.

Now comes the big test for the hirsute, jovial Day: proving he can still continue the progressive arc into the NFL. His size (6’1”, 293 at the Combine) is not necessarily a negative but it certainly isn’t a positive. He’s too bulky and power-oriented to play end for most teams. He’s not stout enough (he played in the low 280s) or dynamic enough to make his NFL living inside the way Donald or Atkins have. Team running a 3-4 front will want significantly more length at the 5T. Most of his game relies in the individual battle right in front of him. That works a lot better in the college ranks than the pros; he must learn to make plays to his flanks and work in concert with those around him better. In that manner he reminds me some of Nick Fairley, though the 2011 1st round pick had better lateral agility and more functional bulk.

Day should make his living as a rush-package defensive tackle. He can thrive when asked to simply overwhelm the guard in front of him with quickness. At least early on, asking him to do more than that will cause a lot of frustration. Fortunately for Day, the one thing he does very well is the one thing NFL defenses covet the most. I just wish he finished what he starts more effectively.  I like Day in the later realms of the third round. After his Combine performance, he won’t last near that long.

Draft projection: 2nd-3rd round

KeiVarae Russell--Here’s an example of a player whose stock has fallen from what already seemed like an artificial high. Many folks pegged the 5’11” corner as a preseason first-round candidate. This is in spite of the fact he missed the 2014 college season after being suspended for his role in an academic scandal.

I watched anxiously to see what all the buzz was about. I hadn’t really noticed him in 2013 other than a strong bowl game against Rutgers. So I watched Notre Dame’s first two games of 2015, against Texas and Virginia, ready to be impressed.

The first thing that stood out is his top-heavy nature. He runs upright and appears to have a high center of gravity for his height. It makes him struggle breaking down when pursuing a tackle or trying to stay with a shiftier wideout. I also didn’t see great burst or the ability to click-and-close on the ball. This was especially notable in Notre Dame’s games against Temple and USC. He didn’t have the long speed to stick or the burst to close on the ball, as evidenced in this play against the Trojans…

There are reports he played through a stress fracture in his foot all season, and that does explain some of the underwhelming burst and quickness. Teams picked on him down the field with great success, completing almost 50% on passes longer than 15 yards down the field. Russell missed the final two games against Stanford and Ohio State, and it would have been great to see him match up with legit NFL receivers on both squads.

The upside to Russell not being fast enough in coverage is that he showed he is indeed a very good tackler, both in form and desire. The Everett, Washington native is also adept at getting off blocks to make an impact against the run. He looks bigger in person than his listed height and weight (196) and I might consider moving him to safety as a result. Russell still merits a 5th round pick with the hope that it was a balky wheel which made him look so unattractive in coverage.

Draft projection: 4th-5th round

Romeo Okwara--Okwara is a great testament to the power of the all-star games. I had little opinion one way or the other on the well-built defensive end before seeing him up close and personal during Shrine Game practices.

That week in St. Pete I saw a guy who could assert his will upon foes. Okwara has outstanding length at 6’5” with long, well-sculpted arms and big, powerful hands. He consistently delivered a heavy punch that jolted the blockers, and was very adept at keeping himself free to flow to the ball in team drills. It made me go back and watch more of him during the season.

It’s here that the power of random selection struck. The first game I rewatched was Clemson, and he did very little in that game other than popping up too tall and looking quite stiff. I moved onto the Virginia game, and once again Okwara struggled mightily with pad level and lateral agility. Then I turned on the Temple game and I saw the impressive dude who captivated me in St. Pete. The Owls couldn’t block him, as Okwara used his length to stay at bay and showed quick closing burst, albeit only in a straight line. With that new hope fresh in mind, I flash forwarded to the Ohio State contest and was let down again. I did regain some optimism with a strong game against Stanford, including this outstanding leverage play against well-regarded tight end Austin Hooper:

One of the things I’ve learned is to not put too much stock into strong postseason performances. I’ve been burned with this before. Okwara might have impressed in the isolation of a strong exhibition week, but in focusing on him for four games after that positive impression, I saw about 25% of the plays where I thought I was looking at a viable NFL player. That’s worth a late-round pick, preferably to a 4-3 team in need of a rotational LDE.

Draft projection: 6th-7th round

Elijah Shumate--A heavy-footed box safety, Shumate has a chance in the supersized safety/extra linebacker role. Unfortunately he was a liability in coverage in college and that will only be exacerbated in the NFL. His lack of explosive athleticism and agility showed at the Combine, where his short shuttle (4.51) was a full two tenths of a second slower than any other DB. That shows time and again on film. I saw it firsthand during Shrine Game practice sessions too. He’s functional crashing the run between the tackles and jacking up tight ends close to the line. Beyond that, there just isn’t much there that says NFL. I have an undraftable grade on Shumate.

Draft projection: 6th round-UDFA

Chris Brown--Moderately productive second banana to Fuller who offers great length at 6’2” and the general savvy to work his way open in the seams and creases in the zone. Brown double-catches a lot of throws and doesn’t attack the ball in the air well. I was puzzled that he received a Combine invite over other wideouts who offered more size/speed/strength (in some combination) to the next level and had greater collegiate productivity. Sorry, I just don’t see it.

Draft projection: 7th round-UDFA

Joe Schmidt--the inside linebacker has opted not to pursue a professional football career.