Last Week: 9-5. The return to winning ways elevates the season total to 100-60. Even my shoddy math skills can figure out that percentage!

This week doesn’t have any lines included, as I wrote the majority of this on Tuesday and the folks at ESPN Fantasy games hadn’t updated their pick ‘em contest yet. And because it is Thanksgiving week and most are in some state of travel, the commentary is generally brief. Enjoy Thanksgiving and a fantastic football slate! 

Thanksgiving Day

- Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: The host Lions have won two in a row since their bye week and the front office firings. Philadelphia has lost two in a row and three of four, and the win was an overtime clunker over a Romo-less Dallas.

If the two editions of these teams who have shown up in the last two weeks meet in Ford Field, Detroit is going to roll. The Lions defense has found its stride, with CB Darius Slay covering as well as anyone in the league and a healthy Haloti Ngata finally wreaking havoc up front. The Eagles defense often looks like 11 guys who just met; despite having a pretty solid front seven they don’t always play to their potential. That was certainly the case in allowing Jameis Winston to throw for five TDs.

Calvin Johnson will be the key. Philly had no answer for Mike Evans, and Megatron is a better/faster/strong version of the same type of long, wide-bodied receiver. Lions fans grumble about Johnson’s usage or lack thereof. He has just five or six catches in the last six games with a catch rate around 55%. That’s decent but not otherworldly. If Detroit is to catch the Eagles in the ridiculously wide open NFC Wild Card standings, Megatron will need to transform into the All Pro he often has been in the past.

If this NFL season has taught us anything, it’s that past results have little influence over future events. Forget what these teams have done the last two weeks and focus on the matchups. Detroit’s recent uptick in run defense means Mark Sanchez has to win the game with his arm…unless the Philly defense and special teams can make some plays. And I think that’s exactly what happens.

Eagles 23, Lions 20

- Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys: You cannot write the script any better if you’re Roger Goodell. Undefeated Carolina is rolling, but the Cowboys have Tony Romo back and are desperate to get the big home win to prove to everyone they are back in the playoff business.

Dallas does match up well with Carolina. The Cowboys OL can withstand the great Carolina defensive front. Dez Bryant can make plays down the field with the plucky Romo at the helm. The Panthers don’t have a playmaking wideout of their own to exploit the leaky coverage.

Beyond that, I think Carolina is overdue for a loss. Do not construe that as me dissing the Panthers; they’re the best team in the NFC and the 10-0 record is not a fluke. But only two teams have ever gone through an entire schedule undefeated for a reason. Losses happen. One does here.

Cowboys 24, Panthers 13

- Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: The Packers are still wobbly even with a reassuring win in Minnesota to get back into the NFC North lead, but no way in the wide world of sports is Green Bay going to lose this game. This is Brett Favre jersey retirement night. You can--and probably should--bet the fever pitch from the Cheesehead faithful will carry over to the Packers on the field. The Bears are playing solid football but didn’t have the horses to run with the Broncos in Chicago. They’re not to overcome the power of Favre in Lambeau Field in a game the Packers desperately need to win. Enjoy the celebration of one of the NFL’s greatest competitors.

Packers 34, Bears 19

Sunday Best

- New England Patriots at Denver Broncos: New England passed another test on Monday night that has practical implications for this game. Tom Brady was terrorized by the hyper-aggressive, talented Bills defense. He was hit, hurried or sacked on more than half his dropbacks. And still the Patriots won. Denver is going to get to Brady a lot too, but somehow I suspect the New England offense will do just enough to get by. I think Bill Belichick has a few tricks in mind for young Brock Osweiler on the other side, too. The Broncos will win if they can keep running the ball successfully.

Patriots 22, Broncos 20 

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks: There is one big, unexpected feather in Pittsburgh’s cap heading to Seattle. Even though the Steeler pass defense is generally (and correctly) regarded as poor, they do a nice job of preventing the big play. Matthew Marczi at Steeler Depot broke it down nicely. Seattle’s passing offense is almost completely predicated on the big play, typically with Russell Wilson extending the play and the wideouts making something out of nothing.

I like that matchup. I also like Antonio Brown against the Legion of Boom with Ben Roethlisberger standing up to the pass rush. The Steelers absolutely have a great chance to go into Seattle and pull off the victory.

So why am I picking the Seahawks, even with Marshawn Lynch out until at least the playoffs…if Seattle even makes the playoffs?

- Rookie RB Thomas Rawls, Lynch’s replacement, has been the better runner this year

- Roethlisberger’s health is tenuous at best. His odds of playing every snap here are no better than 80%

- Pittsburgh’s linebackers are a decided weakness in pass coverage, and Jimmy Graham is so incredibly overdue for a big game

Seattle, as Jeff Goldblum’s character in Jurassic Park liked to say, finds a way.

Seahawks 28, Steelers 24

Sunday Rest

- Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans: The first team to score will win this game. I like Oakland’s offensive firepower more than Tennessee’s.

Raiders 25, Titans 20

- Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs: Don’t look now but the Chiefs are a playoff team. Since starting 1-5 they have won five in a row. Now they host a listing Bills team travelling on a short week after losing an emotional game on MNF against archrival (to the coach) New England. Bad week for the Bills. Good week to have Cairo Santos as your fantasy kicker.

Chiefs 23, Bills 13

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts: If you would have told me in August that these two teams would have the same record heading into this game, you could have blown me over with a feather duster. For the Buccaneers, 5-5 is a great accomplishment and a testament to the return of Doug Martin with the sporadic greatness of Jameis Winston. For the Colts, it’s the disappointment of Andrew Luck being a bottom 10 QB before shutting him down with injury and the defense being bottom 10 all year.

Buccaneers 30, Colts 28

- New York Giants at Washington: A critical game at the top of the NFC East. If the Giants can win they really put some distance between themselves and the rest of the sorry division. Washington comes off a blowout loss to Carolina, but if this season has taught us anything it’s that there is very little carryover from one week to another. That is especially true with Kirk Cousins and Washington. New York is as fresh as they’ll get coming off a bye, but their OL still has injury issues with Justin Pugh, Geoff Schwartz and Weston Richburg all on the injury report. True tossup game.

Ethnic Slurs 33, Giants 27

- New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans: We get out first look at New Orleans’ new defense sans Rob Ryan. And Houston is a decent place to check it out, as the Texans offense is always an iffy proposition. Houston does expect Brian Hoyer back, and his ability to attack down the field with Nuk Hopkins--in the argument for best WR in the league this year--leads me to believe new DC Dennis Allen won’t have a successful debut. Houston’s own defense has been playing great lately, too. High confidence pick here even with the Saints coming off a bye.

Texans 27, Saints 21

- Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons: Both these teams, the current Wild Card representatives in the NFC, are coming off losses. Yet there is a different feel to them. Minnesota lost to a pumped up Green Bay team, while the Falcons lost to a struggling Indianapolis thanks to one of the three worst throws I’ve ever seen from an NFL QB and Matt Ryan. I like the Vikings defense more than I like the Falcons offense. Ships are passing in the night here, and I’m jumping on the ship of the ascending team.

Vikings 20, Falcons 17 

- St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals: I’ll stick with the credo that the Rams just don’t win outside the NFC West. The Bengals welcome a day game against an unfamiliar opponent with a losing record after primetime losses to perennial nemesis Houston and NFC powerhouse Arizona. Between all that and the negative karma around St. Louis for playing Case Keenum after he suffered an obvious concussion, this is a no-brainer.

Bengals 28, Rams 13

- San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars: I still harbored some hope for the Chargers before last week’s abysmal showing versus Kansas City. I really did. Not anymore. They might not win again as the San Diego Chargers. Jacksonville’s improbable playoff march continues. Now as long as they never wear those jaundice-colored uniforms ever again…

Jaguars 32, Chargers 20

- Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: I’m wrong about the Jets a dangerous amount of the time. So I’m going to try something different here and pick against what my inclination is. I think the Jets will win, therefore they will lose.

Dolphins 27, Jets 17 even though my gut tells me the opposite will happen 

- Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: If by some chance you still have Arizona in your Survivor fantasy pool, this is the week to use the Cardinals. In fact, you can do yourself a time-saving favor and select whomever the 49ers play for the rest of the year as your team of the week.

Cardinals 41, 49ers 16

Monday Night

- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: The 3-7 Ravens visit the 2-8 Browns and neither team will have the expected QB under center. Baltimore lost Joe Flacco to a serious knee injury. Cleveland lost Johnny Manziel to Johnny Football. Josh McCown is a better backup plan than Matt Schaub, and the Browns have the better supporting cast. Seriously.

Browns 19, Ravens 15