Here in West Michigan we are due for our first snowfall this weekend. Weather conditions could be windy and brisk around the league but no major inclement weather appears set to impact any games.

Last week: 6-8. The brutal turn of events for favorites struck my forecast as well. Two weeks in a row with just six wins puts the season mark at 91-55.

Thursday Night

- Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5): Believe it or not, this game between 3-6 Jacksonville and 2-7 Tennessee has real playoff implications. If the Jaguars can hold serve at home, there’s a chance they wind up the weekend in a first-place tie in the putrid AFC South.

The Jaguars passing offense is the deciding factor in this one. When it’s good, Blake Bortles throwing to Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns can be quite impressive. Yet the team ranks dead last in completion percentage, and Bortles is trending in the wrong direction. He gets a chance to right the listing ship against a Tennessee pass defense which has allowed nearly 75% completions in the last month, including 80% last week. The Jaguar OL will have to be solid, as the Titans rank second in sack percentage and have done a great job adapting to Dick Lebeau’s scheme. It’s a bright spot for a Tennessee team which has a lot of young moving parts that just don’t come together often enough.

Jaguars 32, Titans 28       

Sunday Best

- Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5): Even though they’re 7-2, the Cardinals sit atop the Trench Counter rankings here. In fact, they’re ahead by a big margin. The Bengals come in at fourth, but their score is less than half of Arizona’s.

That is a strong indication of being a very good all-around team. The Bengals are too, even though the offense laid a giant egg Monday night against Houston. Andy Dalton was not great, but he got little help from Tyler Eifert or his running game. And if those fail once again so will Dalton.

I expect a defensive struggle punctuated by a smattering of big plays. Will it be Dalton to AJ Green, with perhaps Gio Bernard getting loose on a wheel route? Will it be Carson Palmer finding Malcolm Floyd down the right sideline over the top, with Chris Johnson getting 46 of his 80 rushing yards on one carry? With the game in Arizona, I lean towards the latter.

Cardinals 23, Bengals 20

- Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1): In case you haven’t noticed, the Vikings passed the Packers in the NFC North standings last week. With Green Bay reeling after three losses in a row, Minnesota has a golden opportunity to seize control of the division with a home win.

The Vikings hold the biggest matchup advantage with their defensive front against Green Bay’s offensive line and running game. Detroit’s defense destroyed them both, and Minnesota’s defense is more talented up front than the Lions. Normally the Packers could rely on Aaron Rodgers to be the lipstick on the pig and overcome any struggles with the rest of the offense, but that has not been the case lately. The pig is just too stinky, between Eddie Lacy’s dedication to eating and the inability of any receivers to get any separation. Rodgers himself hasn’t been as sharp as we’ve come to expect either.

I don’t think this is a temporary problem for Green Bay. While I do expect Rodgers to play better in this huge game, the struggles of those around him are legit. As long as the Vikings don’t screw up, I think they handle business at home. It’s a changing of the guard weekend in the NFC North.

Vikings 20, Packers 18

Sunday Rest

- Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5): Andrew Luck, as unexpectedly flawed as he might be, covered a lot of holes on the Indianapolis roster. The Colts did well to help Matt Hasselbeck compensate in his earlier run in place of Luck, but there is more of a sense of permanence to the change this time.

Aside from that shock, the Falcons are a bad Xs and Os matchup. I don’t see any way Indy slows down Devonta Freeman, but if they somehow do that then Matt Ryan and Julio Jones will torch them with the passing game. Atlanta’s improved defense will cause issues too, notably speedy rookie rusher Vic Beasley. The Falcons desperately need the home win to keep its fledgling Wild Card lead. They’re coming off a bye after a humbling loss. It all adds up to trouble for Indy, and not the catchy Taylor Swift kind either.

Falcons 36, Colts 17

- Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears (-1.5): Denver’s Brock Osweiler era kicks off in Chicago against an improving Bears team that is gaining confidence by the week. I had to search a little for my pre-draft notes but this is what I cobbled together:

Big guy with an over-the-top delivery who spins the ball clean. Coached in college by Cleveland Browns legend Brian Sipe. Improved mechanically throughout his final two years, but it was much needed too. Has a good-not-great NFL arm but doesn’t always trust it or let it fly when the situation calls for it. Ball placement is inconsistent and goes out the window when he has to throw moving to his left. Well-liked by teammates and coaches. My final comparison was the body of Drew Bledsoe with the overall game of Kyle Orton.

Not exactly Peyton Manning, eh? We haven’t seen him take any meaningful snaps before last week, which resulted in 24 of his 54 career attempts in four years. Osweiler does have one advantage in that Head Coach Gary Kubiak always did a fine job in Houston of having his backups ready to play. He also has a strong defense to lean on, though they were a little shaky against the Chiefs.

Here’s what I think happens…The Broncos rally around the new QB and play above their heads for a week. Chicago is capable but also quite beatable, and I think they might be overconfident from pasting the Rams last week. Denver gets it done this week, and likely this week only, before the reality that the window to win any playoff game closed with Peyton Manning’s injury-fueled demise.

Broncos 24, Bears 20 

- Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (+1): Tony Romo returns, and that leads most Cowboys fans to believe all the problems plaguing a team which has lost seven games in a row will magically evaporate. I suspect Dallas will get an emotional bump, and in conjunction with the dramatically upgraded QB position I think the visitors deserve to be favored. Don’t mistake this for the beginning of a magical run, however; the Cowboys still have serious issues at a lot of other spots, and that includes ownership clinging to cursed pariah Greg Hardy. Still, what Dallas does well nicely counters Miami’s strengths.

Cowboys 21, Dolphins 17

- Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions (+1.5): A week after besting a Packers team they hadn’t beaten on the road since 1991, the Lions now host a Raiders team which hasn’t beaten them since 1996. Granted, it’s only been three games, the last in Detroit’s strong 2011 campaign when Calvin Johnson caught 9 passes for 214 yards and two TDs in Oakland.

Had I not watched Detroit’s win closely, I would be tempted to pick them to win. But they survived a game they tried desperately to lose, only to have the Packers out-Lions them. Seriously. On the potential game-winning field goal attempt from Green Bay, the Lions only had 10 men on the field. That was the second time the field goal unit was a man short. They got bailed out when Packers punter/holder Tim Mashtay accidently blocked Mason Crosby’s long kick with his off hand.

It will take more strange enemy misfortune for the home team to pull this one off. The Detroit OL has no answer for Khalil Mack rushing at Matthew Stafford other than Stafford’s own savvy. A rash of injuries leave the Lions very thin at cornerback, and Darius Slay can’t cover both Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree at the same time. I see Raiders RB Latavius Murray having a strong day with his hard-charging style. The Lions defense played quite well last week, but I need to see it happen again before I believe it’s going to stick.

Raiders 33, Lions 28 

- St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5): The Rams are 4-5 and feature a defense which is sporadically awesome but almost always at least decent. The Ravens are 2-7 and don’t do any one thing particularly well. So why are the Ravens favored?

A lot of it has to do with a quarterback change in St. Louis. Nick Foles is out, Case Keenum is in. I’ll give you a second to stop laughing…

Keenum is 2-8 as a starter, all with the Texans in 2013-14. Funny enough, one of those wins came last year in Week 16 against a Ravens team which was a whole lot better than this year’s edition. The key to victory there was Keenum riding a defense which forced three turnovers and completely snuffed out any semblance of a rushing attack. A commitment to running the ball on their own helped take some of the pressure off the 27-year-old Houston Cougar alum.

Again, refer to what the Rams do well. They run the ball with Todd Gurley, using the run game on over 47% of their offensive snaps. They stop the run with a great defensive line and solid support from the second level. So the visitors certainly have a chance.

In the end I think the Ravens do prevail. The offensive line issues, including the loss of Jamon Brown last week, really hurt St. Louis. I’m not sure how either team scores much, and in a close, low-scoring game I will lean towards the veteran QB in Joe Flacco. It’s not often I utter that phrase without maniacal laughter, but in this case it’s the sober truth.

Ravens 19, Rams 16 

- New York Jets at Houston Texans (+2.5): The Ryan Fitzpatrick revenge game takes the Jets signal caller back to Houston, where he had an inconsistent, ultimately unsuccessful run as a starter before moving to the Big Apple this offseason.

Never underestimate the power of scorn. New York had a coach who fostered it for years, and look what it did for Rex & his Bills against these same Jets last week. Fitzpatrick and his mates are rested, coming off the Thursday night game while the Texans had to travel back home from playing the Monday nighter in Cincinnati. That was a physical contest and an emotional one too. I think the Jets capitalize, in part because Fitzpatrick has a great day and his receivers don’t drop the several open passes the Bengals did on Andy Dalton the other night. Houston’s defense is playing quite well, with no TDs allowed in the last 10 quarters, and they’ll be a formidable matchup.

Jets 20, Texans 17 

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5): Sam Bradford is out, Mark Sanchez is in for the Eagles. Quite frankly I’m amazed Bradford lasted as long as he did; I had 6.5 games in the “when does Bradford lose a body part on the field?” pool.

For practical purposes, Sanchez might actually operate the offense more effectively. He’s more fearless, for better and for worse. There is superior anticipation on throws and his ball placement on shorter tosses tends to be more precise. This might sound trite, but The Sanchize hands the ball off cleaner too. It is something that doesn’t get mentioned enough but Bradford has always been awkward at handing the ball off, even in his Oklahoma glory days.

The Bucs catch a break in getting an NFC East foe starting a backup QB two weeks in a row. They squeaked past Dallas last week thanks to exactly one good scoring drive, though another deep penetration led to a Jameis Winston INT and another came up empty with a missed field goal. I’m not sure even three touchdown drives will beat these Eagles, who continue to confound with their inconsistency.

Eagles 31, Buccaneers 23 

- Washington at Carolina Panthers (-7.5): Last week I picked against the undefeated Panthers. Cam Newton danced on my lousy prediction as Carolina comfortably handled a Tennessee offense that has had major trouble getting into the end zone. That has not been Washington’s problem, including scoring more than Charlie Sheen on a Vegas bender last week against New Orleans.

Carolina is not plagued by Rob Ryan’s lack of coordination, an advantage Washington enjoyed last week so thoroughly that the Saints fired their defensive guru. Kirk Cousins will have a lot more trouble finding open receivers against the likes of Josh Norman, Kurt Coleman and the best linebacking duo in the league in Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis. If Washington can run the ball with Matt Jones and Alfred Morris, the play action game to Jordan Reed could open up. It gives the visitors a fighting chance, especially if Washington’s own defense can pick off one of those errant Cam Newton passes.

Washington's problem will be containing Newton when he breaks containment and takes off. They tend to do okay when the opponent is one dimensional. Newton is two dimensions all to himself, and he’s got the green light to be creative and empowered to take off when the situation calls for it. That makes them very tough to defend. I do think Carolina’s great run is ending sooner than later, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it happens here. But any weatherman can tell you the 30% chance of rain means a 70% chance it won’t.

Panthers 26, Ethnic Slurs 20 

- Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (+2.5): I got involved in a conversation this week about whether the Chiefs can realistically win the AFC West. After rising up from a dreadful 1-5 start to win their last three games, they have a chance. In order to catch the Manning-less Broncos, they must first vanquish the Chargers in San Diego. The KC pass rush figures to be a serious problem for a Chargers O-line which has just one player with a positive grade from Pro Football Focus. Quibble with their grading all you want, but this one reflects the reality that San Diego lacks continuity up front. And with his top two wideouts out, it’s hard to see Philip Rivers finding a lot of success even at home. The Chiefs playoff march trudges on.

Chiefs 24, Chargers 21

- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5): The 49ers currently hold the NFL’s worst point differential at -97. The Seahawks are at +20 despite being 4-5. Seattle desperately needs this win to keep the playoff fires above smoldering ember status. Blaine Gabbert in Seattle? Yeah, good luck with that, Coach Tomsula…

Seahawks 27, 49ers 3

Monday Night

- Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-7.5): Insert “Rex Ryan vs. the Patriots” narrative here. Insert sobering “Patriots have major injury issues” note here. Insert “Bills desperate, Patriots vulnerable” tidbit. Sprinkle in cliché or two about desire and intensity. Throw in statistical metric giving Bills a real chance. Still pick the Patriots because Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.

Patriots 28, Bills 21