Last week: 10-4. Another solid forecast which pushes the five-week total to 51-25. That’s as pretty as the changing leaves here on the eastern shores of Lake Michigan.

Thursday Night

- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (+3.5): One of the NFL’s better rivalries, this edition features two teams going in very different directions. Atlanta is undefeated with a revitalized Matt Ryan, a tougher offensive line, an invigorated rushing attack and a more assertive defense that is trending up. New Orleans is in the bottom third in scoring, off last year’s pace by almost a touchdown. The defense ranks 30th in points allowed and ranks dead last in yards per play. They’re worse in just about every statistical metric, significantly worse in several cases.

So why do I have the feeling the Saints are going to pull the surprise? I like their offensive line, and I like Drew Brees to find the gaps in the Falcons D when he has time to survey the situation. Washington’s defense showed how to slow down Atlanta’s offense last week, making it one-dimensional by stymying Ryan’s air options. If they tackle Devonta Freeman well, the Saints D can hang tough.

This game has the feel of a last stand of a fading empire, one emotional grasp to past glory to remind the rising power that it isn’t quite there yet. Perhaps that is too optimistic for Sean Payton’s Saints, but this could be the last time we ever see Payton, Brees et al in prime time.

Saints 26, Falcons 24

Sunday Best

- New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5): Let me get this out of the way right now: I don’t give even a tiny little speck of crap about DeflateGate. It was completely inconsequential last January and it matters even less now. As much as some Colts fans are still rather loudly calling foul (read the first few couple of paragraphs of Gregg Doyel’s piece in the Indianapolis Star), pinning that Patriots blowout win on slightly underinflated footballs that may or may not have been intentional willfully and blatantly ignores the other side of the coin.

Andrew Luck was astonishingly terrible in that game. 12-of-33, 126 yards, 2 INTs. It is statistically the second-worst performance in a playoff game by any quarterback this century. Given that he was also awful the prior year in the playoffs against the Patriots (4 INTs, 48% completion rate, 3 sacks), Colts fans who blame the ball are off their rockers.

Luck is expected to play after missing two weeks. The Colts, somewhat coincidentally, won both those games after losing two of Luck’s three starts. The tweaks Indy applied to the offense to accommodate backup Matt Hasselbeck were prudent. They sped up the offense, getting the ball out quicker and spreading the field horizontally much better. If the Colts are going to have any success against this Patriots defense, Luck will need to stick with those changes. This is the best Patriots defense in the last few years, versatile, deep and tough.

Then there is the matter of slowing down Tom Brady. If anyone cares about DeflateGate, it’s Brady. And when he’s focused, nobody has ever been better. I worry for the Colts corners that he is going to take out his frustrating, embarrassing offseason on their toasted souls. This one could be ugly.

Patriots 42, Colts 24

- Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5): What do you get when you cross one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in NFL history with a team coming off a game where they forced six takeaways? That’s called trouble in river city for Mike Vick and the Steelers.

I would be more bullish on the home team’s chances if Vick were able to somehow integrate Antonio Brown back into the offense. In the two games without Ben Roethlisberger, Brown has just eight catches for 87 yards and no TDs. That’s barely half of his typical production. There have been opportunities to get him the ball down the field but Vick either hasn’t seen him or opted for a safer choice. Neutering the best player on your own team is generally not an effective game strategy, akin to putting your spy in the front row in Stratego only to have an enemy scout take him out early.

Even if Brown gets back to catching 10 passes for 125 yards and a TD, I still have a hard time seeing Pittsburgh winning, even at home. Arizona’s offense can exploit the leaky coverage, while the Cardinals special teams are also a decided advantage.

Cardinals 27, Steelers 20 

- Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5): The Panthers are rested off a bye week for their trip to the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, the Seahawks return home smarting from a bad loss in Cincinnati to one of the league’s most physical teams.

While many think the Seahawks are starting to rise up at 2-3, the plain truth is that every halfway decent team they’ve played has beaten them. And they needed help from a fortuitous officiating mistake and a game-saving play by Kam Chancellor to beat the lowly Lions in Seattle. Their problems--brutal offensive line, no playmaking receivers to command defensive attention, poor depth in the defensive back seven--are all legit and ongoing issues that will not be resolved in-season. And the first two there are very real problems in facing undefeated Carolina, which features a very good defensive front and a playmaking secondary that is aggressive in attacking the ball.

Of course the Panthers haven’t played any playoff-caliber opponents yet; their four opponents have five combined wins in as many weeks. Seattle’s defensive front is also a good one, and the decided lack of playmaking talent at receiver in Carolina is perhaps the weakest in the league. This is a big step up in level of competition, and I’m not sold they are ready to make it just yet. I don’t think Seattle is a touchdown better than anyone, not this year anyway, so I really like the Panthers with the points.

Seahawks 22, Panthers 20

Sunday Rest

- Washington at New York Jets (-5.5): You want a wild statistic? The Jets have lost just five passing yards to penalty this season while throwing for 924. That’s an amazing figure. By way of comparison, Washington’s Kirk Cousins has lost 126 passing yards to penalty while throwing for 1,224. That’s 10% of his potential yardage, while Ryan Fitzpatrick’s percentage lost barely registers.

What does that have to do with the matchup here? Probably not much. The bottom line for this game of two of the league’s better defenses is which QB avoids the catastrophic mistakes both are infamous for making at the worst possible times. I trust Fitzpatrick a little more than Cousins, and I like the Jets running game more too. Really don’t see this one being more than a field goal either way.

Jets 20, Ethnic Slurs 17 

- Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+2.5): I liked Buffalo’s chances to hang the first loss on Cincinnati, but then this news dropped…

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tyrod Taylor is out for Week 6 with an injured knee. EJ Manuel will start for the Bills, per NFL Network source familiar with the injury.</p>&mdash; Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) <a href="https://twitter.com/Michael_Fabiano/status/654028514367160320">October 13, 2015</a></blockquote>

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E.J. Manuel is not beating the Bengals, period. It doesn’t help that the RB crew is also quite banged up.

Bengals 23, Bills 10 

- Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5): With no Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs turn to Charcandrick West to spearhead their rushing attack. Aside from really annoying my spell-checker, here’s the skinny on West:

- Played at Abilene Christian with Cleveland Browns WR Taylor Gabriel

- Ran a wind-aided 4.27 40 and posted a 41” vertical jump at his pro day in 2014 but still went undrafted

- Noted by scouts for being a very good receiver

- At the epicenter of several training camp skirmishes, a reflection of his hardcore playing style

West could be a pleasant surprise. You know what else would be a pleasant surprise? A true downfield pass from Minnesota’s Teddy Bridgewater, dead last in yards per completion at just 8.6. That’s more than two full yards short of noted Checkdown Charlie Alex Smith. This game figures to be a snoozer, save the anticipated 77-yard TD scamper from Adrian Peterson and a strip sack from Justin Houston.

Vikings 19, Chiefs 12

- Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-2.5): I’m tired of dealing with my winless Lions and their lifeless underachievement. So instead, the focus here is on the overachieving Bears. Credit new head coach John Fox for fabricating a pretty tasty defense out of a roster without much appetizing talent.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bears?src=hash">#Bears</a> are ranked 4th in the NFL in total defense, allowing 304.6 yards per game. They were ranked 30th last season.</p>&mdash; Zach Zaidman (@ZachZaidman) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZachZaidman/status/654008487131881472">October 13, 2015</a></blockquote>

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Newcomers Pernell McPhee and Sam Acho have greatly augmented the linebacking corps, as has the continued emergence of Christian Jones. Rookie safety Adrian Amos has proven a major upgrade too. They’re playing with confidence and cohesion, two traits sorely lacking on the home sideline.

At some point the Lions offense is going to wake up. There is too much talent not to have an eruption, even with the leaky line and predictable-to-a-fault scheme. Detroit bottomed out last week. I think the humiliation galvanizes the team into one big effort. It might as well happen here, though the improved Chicago D won’t make it easy.

Lions 28, Bears 24

- Denver Broncos at Cleveland Browns (+4.5): The Browns are an intriguing matchup for the Broncos because Cleveland’s defense is good in short-range coverage but has too many breakdowns deep down the field. Peyton Manning simply cannot exploit those the way he used to. And the Browns offensive line has a chance to hold up against Denver’s outstanding defensive front.

I don’t see Cleveland’s offense making enough plays. It will be tough for Josh McCown to grind out multiple scoring drives, even tougher to cash those into TDs and not FGs. The Browns have a chance if they can get a special teams or defensive score, and I do think it will be closer than the casual fan believes. But Denver has the better playmakers on both sides of the ball and that helps avert the upset.

Broncos 20, Browns 16

- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+.5): Houston has a habit of losing games by seven points. Three of its four losses fit that billing. Their “spin the bottle” QB situation has landed on Brian Hoyer for this week, a very winnable game against a Jaguars team which gives up the second-most points per game. Hoyer lit up the Colts in garbage time, and his style can give fits to the Jacksonville defense. Other than Davon House, nobody in the Jaguars back seven has any sort of consistency in coverage, and here comes Nuk Hopkins and his 75 targets. That’s the most in the league by more than 20% over the No. 2 (Julio Jones). Hopkins is very skilled and has a definite connection with Hoyer, and the Texans clearly have no problem dipping that well repeatedly.

I do think Jacksonville’s passing offense will have success. Houston will have trouble covering all of Blake Bortles’ ample weapons. The Jaguars don’t have many strengths but pass catchers are one, with Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas and even rookie RB T.J. Yeldon out of the backfield. Fortunately for the Texans, I believe the Houston pass rush will help the back end enough that it allows Hoyer and the offense to outscore the home team.

Also worth noting this game opened at most sports books with the Jaguars +2.5, and now it’s down to either +1 or the listed +.5 here. The fact so many have so much confidence in the Jaguars scares me. Suckers.

Texans 33, Jaguars 30

- Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Our first look at Miami’s interim Head Coach Dan Campbell makes this a very unpredictable game. I admire his balls-out style and desire to toughen a team which needs that both physically and mentally. Tennessee’s defense will make it a difficult early challenge. The Titans have a primo defensive tackle in Jurrell Casey and lead the league in sack percentage. They’re third in opposing completion percentage.

The Titans do give up big plays, however. Their 12.6 yards per completion ranks near the bottom, and with Ryan Tannehill’s ability to buy time there will be opportunities for Miami to finally snap the offensive doldrums. Yet I don’t see Miami’s running game perking up. If you haven’t bailed on Lamar Miller in fantasy football yet, this game is likely your last stand. Titans rookie QB Marcus Mariota has proven himself accurate (64.1%) and effective on third down. Campbell’s passionate overhaul gives the Dolphins a chance, but I’ll trust in Tennessee to spoil his coaching debut.

Titans 24, Dolphins 17 

- San Diego Chargers at Green Bay Packers (-9.5): Here’s this week’s football conundrum…Per Pro Football Focus, Chargers QB Philip Rivers ranks 31st in percentage of throws that are quantified as “deep”, 20 yards or longer. Yet he’s been quite successful on those deep shots, registering 4 touchdowns on his 10 attempts to rank second.

So, is his percentage so successful because of how few opportunities Rivers takes? Would the San Diego offense benefit from having Rivers launch more deep throws? At what point would his effectiveness really wane to the point where it’s not worth it?

That’s what the analytical experts are supposed to answer. Yet there are so many mitigating factors. If Rivers starts throwing deep more, how much would defenses adjust to the schematic change? How much would that benefit San Diego’s offense working shorter routes to dangerous weapons like Danny Woodhead? Is it feasible with San Diego’s dilapidated offensive line, which often struggles to protect Rivers even on 3-step drops and quick releases?

My head hurts pondering all the above questions. The fact the analytics folks can’t satisfactorily answer these answers without some degree of guesswork is precisely why so many “old school” football guys don’t take them seriously enough. But I bet the Packers organization can answer those better than anyone.

Packers 33, Chargers 20 

- Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5): This was the Super Bowl matchup three years ago, the battle of brothers Harbaugh. My how things have changed…

Both teams are 1-4. The Niners have the league’s worst point differential at -65. Both teams are well into the red in turnover margin. Baltimore goes 3-and-out on a quarter of its offensive drives. San Francisco is tied for 31st in yards per play offensively, and 31st in yards per play defensively.

The Ravens are definitely the less egregious team. They can score with relative consistency, averaging almost 10 full points per game more than the Niners. The Giants’ late rally against San Francisco on Sunday night stands out, too. There was about as much resistance from the Niners defense as a paper leash on a greyhound. Even if Colin Kaepernick leads them to a late lead, I don’t trust their defense to keep Joe Flacco from answering.

Ravens 30, 49ers 26 

Monday Night

- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5): Eli Manning is the reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week for finally being on the right end of the late-game comeback hose. After the first two weeks of the season, both excruciating late losses, it was quite the redemptive night for the Giants in vanquishing San Francisco. And therein lies why it’s hard to be confident that these Giants can hang with a Philadelphia team that looks to be hitting its stride.

I really like what I saw from Philly in the Eagles’ systematic destruction of New Orleans last week. The team speed, the offensive cohesion, the consistent intensity, all were where many of us expected Chip Kelly to have this team all season. They still have a variable weak link in QB Sam Bradford, but it was nice to see him rebound from a terrible start to that game and finish so stridently. The Giants have a decent chance to win this crucial NFC East matchup, but it’s going to take creating a lot of pressure on Bradford. Given New York ranks dead last in Pro Football Focus pass rush grades, I’m not optimistic that will happen.

Eagles 28, Giants 21