2014 Record: 7-9, 3rd in NFC North

Current +/- wins per Bovada: 7.5

Overall: The first season for rookie Head Coach Mike Zimmer brought a fair amount of success for Minnesota. Zimmer brought his trademark attacking defense from his days with the Bengals and it helped improve the Vikings immediately. They jumped from dead last to 11th in scoring defense. The turnover margin bumped up from -12 in 2013 to -1. Seven wins marked an uptick from the 5-10-1 record a year earlier.

Adding quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and linebacker Anthony Barr in the first round of the 2014 draft paid off. Bridgewater proved a quick study under noted QB guru Norv Turner, while Barr helped bring more sizzle to a defense which had grown stale. That the team improved despite losing star running back Adrian Peterson for all but one game is a testament to the new attitude Zimmer and crew brought to the Twin Cities.

Now the bar is raised. A team with seven first-round picks from 2012-14 has real potential to bounce back into the playoffs. Peterson returns to bolster the rushing attack, while the strong defensive front remains intact. The offensive line is a big question mark, and there are still some soft points on the roster. Can the Vikings surge forward this year?

Five Questions

1. How much impact from the return of Adrian Peterson?

Getting star running back Adrian Peterson back after a lost 2014 is like having a bonus first-round pick, except the team already knows the player is All-Pro caliber. The last time we saw All Day play 16 games he traipsed for over 2000 yards at a healthy 6.0 yards per attempt.

That was 2012, and in running back years that’s a long time. 2013 was quietly one of his worst seasons. Worst is a relative term when a guy still rushes for 1266 yards and 10 TDs, but Peterson’s yards per carry (4.5) were the second-lowest of his 8-year career, and he wasn’t breaking as many tackles to glean extra yardage as consistently.

Now Peterson is 30. He played one game in 2014 and wasn’t effective in it, though the maelstrom of his legal issues is an understandable excuse. Still, he’s had over 2000 career carries, the point where runners with similar styles (Eric Dickerson, O.J. Simpson, Clinton Portis) started to really decline. His best run blocking lineman, right tackle Phil Loadholt, is out for the year with a preseason Achilles tear.

It’s not a given Purple Jesus defaults back to messianic status among NFL running backs. I do like the angle of AD shoving all the controversy, the suspension and the brouhaha over his questionable parenting skills in everyone’s faces, running with a vengeance back to All-Pro status and another rushing title. I believe the legs will be fresh and the upper body ready to strike away would-be tacklers.

Yet I also have seen Peterson become more of a hit-or-miss back. Instead of crushing a defense all game, he’s become more of a guy with one or two big runs and a lot less overall quantity of quality runs in each game. The Vikings will surely welcome the 38-yard scampers and the 3 yards on 3rd and 2, but expect more 2nd and 8 or 3rd and 7 situations when Peterson totes the rock on the early downs.

They do have a nifty complementary back in Jerrick McKinnon, who showed great agility and good hands out of the backfield in his rookie season. It’s odd he didn’t find the end zone once on his 140 touches with his speed and open-field ability, but that can turn around quickly. Matt Asiata proved he can maximize whatever the defense will give him on a run; he’ll be one of the better third RBs in the league. 

2. What contributions does the rookie class provide?

The Vikings have a very impressive young core, and that stems in part from liberally throwing rookies into the fire in recent seasons. As a result, this year’s rookie class probably isn’t going to make much of an immediate splash.

Phil Loadholt’s injury opens the door for fourth-round pick T.J. Clemmings to start at right tackle, and that will make him the only first-year player to earn that status. Clemmings fell progressively as the draft process bore on. Once widely projected as a top 25 pick, raw technique, no experience on the left side and a lousy Senior Bowl week sent the Pittsburgh right tackle to the draft’s third day. The Vikings started out by trying to convert him to guard, but he’s a natural right tackle and now gets to prove himself. Loadholt is one of the more underrated linemen in the league, so Clemmings does have pretty big shoes to fill. The fact he has little help to his inside flank, where Chargers castoff Mike Harris will start, is not likely to help. A converted defensive end in Clemmings starting outside a converted tackle who was terrible in his stint in San Diego in Harris; if the Vikings offense has a serious issue, this is it.

The only other rookie who figures to crack the 25% snap mark is first-rounder Trae Waynes. The lanky Michigan State corner isn’t likely to start, but that’s as much about Coach Zimmer trusting veteran Terrence Newman opposite rising star Xavier Rhodes than an indictment on Waynes. He’s not built--at all--to play inside, which doesn’t leave an opportunity for Waynes to play a great deal as the third outside corner. Rhodes and Newman are a sound, savvy starting tandem and that buys time for Waynes to adjust to the physicality and intricacy of the NFL passing game. He needs it.

Eric Kendricks will also be a top reserve as a rookie. The linebacker from UCLA will see most of his action in nickel packages, where his ability to turn and run is a real asset. With linebacker the unquestioned soft spot in the defense, if Kendricks makes plays early he could take over in a full-time capacity. He’s the kind of talent Zimmer loves, an unchained attacker with quick recognition skills and sound fundamentals. He will be a starter at some point, but once again the Vikings don’t necessarily need him to be right away.

Of the other rooks, wideout Stefon Diggs has the best chance to make a dent in the lineup in 2015. He’s flashed real ability in preseason after an up-and-down career at Maryland. The fifth-round pick stands a very good chance to be the fourth wideout, and his straight-line speed can stretch defenses. As I was quite critical of Diggs in the scouting process, he’s apparently going to prove me wrong.

The other draft picks do hold some promise for the future. MyCole Pruitt should eventually be the #2 tight end, a compactly built receiving specialist. Tyrus Thompson has a real future as the swing offensive tackle, though he’s currently listed at guard. Danielle Hunter, the team’s third-rounder, has juice as a pass rushing end but simply faces a logjam of talent ahead of him right now. Hunter could be a starter down the line. I even favor undrafted safety Anthony Harris, who appears destined for the practice squad as a rookie from Virginia.

Don’t look for great contribution from the 2015 rookie class in Minnesota. This is not a negative, nor is it an indictment of General Manager Rick Speilman’s scouting and drafting prowess last spring. It’s more a sign of better-than-advertised depth at most spots.

3. Which receivers help Teddy Bridgewater take the next step?

Minnesota’s receiving corps appears to be in a constant state of flux. Jarius Wright, who projects as the 3rd or 4th wideout, is the only receiver with more than two years on the roster.

The biggest name is Mike Wallace, acquired from Miami in the offseason. Minnesota is his third stop in four seasons despite being one of the preeminent deep threats in the league. He quickly wore out his high-priced welcome in Miami after chasing the might dollar from Pittsburgh, where the Steelers were not sorry to let him depart. Wallace did catch 10 TDs last year, but his YPC of 12.8 in his two Miami years is more indicative of the level of disenchantment by both parties. He’s at his best on the 7-8-9 routes, where his speed can get behind just about anyone. Last year he proved capable of dragging across the back of the end zone, and that might actually be his best asset in Minnesota.

Charles Johnson is also at his best on deep throws and comeback routes, and he’s got both a distinct size advantage and chemistry with Bridgewater from last season. Johnson caught 25 passes in his final seven games before being injured last year. He’s 100% healthy now and has looked great all summer. Johnson is also a natural fit for Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner, who originally had the Grand Valley State prospect in Cleveland a few years back. It will be interesting to see how the wideout roles emerge with Johnson, Wallace and Wright all essentially at their best in the same role.

Then there’s Cordarrelle Patterson. A true enigma, Patterson has all the athletic potential to be an absolute star. He’s big, he’s fast, he’s lithe, he’s got wiry strength. Patterson has flashed game-breaking ability in the NFL, notably a 2-TD outing in the 2013 finale. Yet in his two years in Minnesota he’s been a study in frustration. He just doesn’t catch the ball naturally. He doesn’t seem to grasp the offensive concepts all that well. There are full games where he appears to be going at about 80% speed. His catch rate was under 50% a year ago. This is now or never time for Patterson with the Vikings, who has the potential to be a dynamic offensive weapon but also the downside of being merely an acceptable return specialist.

Tight end Kyle Rudolph has also simultaneously tantalized and disappointed in his four years in Minnesota. Injuries the last two years have clouded his future and what he might be able to contribute as a receiving tight end. At his best, the 2011 second-rounder is a big target over the middle and down the seam. A full 16 games, which he’s achieved just once, would help Bridgewater move the chains more effectively. Minnesota finished 20th last year in third down conversion percentage.

Backup TE Rhett Ellison plays for his blocking. He wasn’t targeted on a pass deeper than 8 yards last year. The aforementioned Diggs is the brightest light on the bench at wideout, so there isn’t a lot of proven depth. The gamble on Wallace has to pay off, and Rudolph really needs to stay on the field and contribute highly for Bridgewater to thrive.

Teddy improved his downfield vision and accuracy as his rookie year progressed. It would be a shame to see that development wither because his receiving corps isn’t up to the challenge. Yet there are real questions about all his pass catching options. 

4. Will special teams hold them back?

The main issue is with placekicker Blair Walsh. He was not impressive a year ago, as no kicker who lasted 16 games had a lower success rate on field goals. Walsh was 26-of-35, not even 75% in a league where 80% is below average.

The 2015 preseason has not been promising for anyone hoping Walsh was simply having an off year in 2014…

 

While the return game looks to be in good hands with Marcus Sherels on punts and Cordarrelle Patterson on kickoffs both above the league average, the punting and coverage teams are not great. Jeff Locke was 23rd in gross punting. Moreover, he wasn’t very good at pinning the ball deep consistently.

There were missed tackles, blown blocks, ill-timed penalties and even some errant snaps, which led to a new long snapper in Kevin McDermott. One of the issues in playing so many youngsters and not having a lot of veteran depth is that special teams can suffer.

It all added up to Minnesota being graded 26th in total special teams by Pro Football Focus. If the Vikings are to make the jump to playoff contenders, the kicking game must elevate to at least average.

5. Is this young core ready for the playoffs?

There is no arguing Minnesota has collected an impressive young core of talent on both sides of the ball. A lot of that talent, including the deep, dynamic pass rush of Brian Robison, Everson Griffen and Anthony Barr, is already hitting at a high level. Young defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd is emerging as one of the best at his position, capable of disrupting opposing backfields on a regular basis. Harrison Smith is a glaring omission when most pundits list the top safeties in the league right now. Bridgewater surpassed most expectations as a rookie signal caller.

This has led to heightened expectations. Many are forecasting a jump from 7-9 to leaping the Lions and threatening the Packers for NFC North supremacy. Minnesota is a trendy pick to crash the playoff party.

That very real enthusiasm belies some damning statistics which the Vikings must improve or overcome if they’re going to hit that 10-win mark likely needed to qualify for the postseason. Among them:

- A spike in penalties, from 70 in 2013 to 100 in 2014

- A decline in run defense. Minnesota allowed 4.3 yards per carry in 2014, 23rd in the league. In 2013 they allowed just 4.0, which ranked 12th

- A pass defense which, while improved, still allowed too many big plays and finished 23rd in QB Rating allowed

- A spate of good health. Only 7 teams had fewer games lost by starters to injury last year

- All seven wins last year came against teams which finished with losing records. They went 1-5 in the NFC North, only beating a Chicago team which had quit weeks earlier in the finale

Bridgewater’s development is the key, but the offensive line could scuttle his growth. Matt Kalil is often a turnstile at left tackle, and the right side of the line remains quite unsettled. The jumbling at receiver doesn’t help a lot, either. If the defense as a whole doesn’t continue its upward climb, the pressure will be on Bridgewater to do more than he’s been asked thus far. 

Forecast: There is undeniable inertia and positive momentum around this franchise. A lot of pieces are in place for the widely anticipated climb in the standings. Yet there should be some hesitation before buying heavy on the “over” at 7.5 wins.

In order for that to happen, the Vikings are going to have to beat some better teams. We’ll learn a lot about how legit those playoff aspirations are early, as they face an intriguing schedule early. Opening at San Francisco, they follow by hosting Detroit and San Diego, then a trip to Denver. Those are four games which can go either way. 3-1 or better there and this team sure looks like they’ll ride that early wave to the postseason. They can feast in the middle of the year, starting with a Week 8 trip to Chicago through a Week 10 trip to Oakland. They’ll need to sweep there, as Seattle, Green Bay and Arizona linger on the late schedule.

I went through game by game three times. Twice I got 8-8, including one eminently realistic outcome where they split every two weeks. The other came out at 10-6, and that was with sweeping the first four games. I’m going to need to see that before I believe it. The arrow is up in Minnesota, but the Vikings are likely a year away from getting back to the playoffs. Minnesota finishes 8-8 in 2015.