For many NFL fans, this weekend is the pinnacle. Four playoff games, all featuring one team which won last week against one of the four teams coming off a bye week, makes for a full plate of what should be great football.

As if that isn’t enough, the first-ever College Football Playoff game goes down Monday night!

Saturday

- Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-7): There is strong public sentiment backing the Ravens. It’s well-founded; Baltimore has won playoff games in New England in both 2009 and 2012, and they are not awed by Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots mystique.

The Ravens might not be afraid of the seemingly daunting task of facing the Patriots in Gillette Field, but there is strong reason to favor the home team. Consider these nuggets:

• In Week 15 the Ravens trailed 3-13 Jacksonville deep into the third quarter and would have lost if not for the Jaguars’ red-zone incompetence and a blocked punt recovered in the end zone by Kamar Aiken.
• In Week 16 against the Texans, Joe Flacco completed just 3 passes in the first half. He wound up 21-of-50 with three INTs. The Ravens ran 16 times for 33 yards.
• In Week 17 they trailed at home 10-3 in the fourth quarter to a Cleveland Browns team starting an undrafted rookie third-stringer and missing several key starters. They were 1-of-10 on third down at one point.

I know, I know. They throttled the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week. That was a Steelers team missing All Pro running back Le'Veon Bell and offered no pass rush whatsoever. New England will be different.

The Patriots care not for your jocular confidence in their opponent. They care not for playoff ghosts of seasons past. They have the best coach of the last 25 years. They have the best playoff QB of the last 25 years. They have their best defense in years, and it’s well-rested. They have a freak offensive weapon in Gronk who can exploit one of Baltimore’s biggest weaknesses, the coverage of their safeties and linebackers down the field. They have a kicker who has missed just two field goals at home in the last three years.

Most of all, they have a window of opportunity with Brady that isn’t going to stay open much longer, and they know it. They are tired of the playoff humblings. They take it out on a Ravens team that has struggled all season to play two good quarters in the same game, let alone four.

Patriots 33, Ravens 17

- Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-11): Stop snickering at the Carolina Panthers! Sure they are just 8-8-1 on the year, but they’ve won five in a row. They didn’t come upon the late success by accident, either.

Since they committed to playing the youngsters in the secondary, the Panthers defense has been a different animal. Inserting rookies Bene Benwikere and Tre Boston into the starting lineup added speed, better ball skills and a whole lot more positive energy. They invigorated Benwikere’s fellow starting corner Josh Norman, who played his best ball down the stretch too.

Since Week 11, Benwikere has been Pro Football Focus’ (subscription required) third-best corner in their detailed player grading system. Boston and fellow safety Roman Harper are both in the top 12 at their position. With continued strong linebacking play from the awesome Luke Kuechly and underrated Thomas Davis, the back end of the defense morphed into one of the best in football.

Alas, they are playing one of the few back ends better than their own in Seattle. The Seahawks take after Seattle native Sir Mix-A-Lot’s anthem: they got back, baby! Since superb middle linebacker Bobby Wagner returned to the lineup, they have allowed double figures just once in six games. They’re allowing less than 15 first downs per game over that span, more than two fewer than the next best team…which happens to be Carolina.

I expect this game to be a defensive slugfest. The quarterback who can make more plays and exploit defensive miscues more adeptly will win. Take nothing from Cam Newton, but Russell Wilson does that as well as any quarterback playing right now. Carolina losing key defensive tackle Star Lotulelei to a broken foot means Marshawn Lynch could find more success pounding between the tackles. The 11 points seems like a lot, but I’m banking on a defensive or special teams touchdown from the home team to cover it.

Seahawks 23, Panthers 10

Sunday

- Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-6): Green Bay would be an easy choice at home if not for the questionable status of presumed MVP Aaron Rodgers and his injured calf.

Rodgers is going to play, no doubt. Yet he’s got a strained calf and it may or may not have a tear as well. He was quite limited after aggravating the injury in the Packers’ finale against the Lions, doing it on a touchdown pass no less. Rodgers was virtually immobile after that, though the Lions couldn’t make him pay by strangely refusing to blitz him.

If Rodgers cannot move around, Dallas has a chance. Nobody since Steve Young moves around as well in the pocket or rollouts as Rodgers, and he throws quite well on the run. His ability to slide around quickly in all directions provides him advantageous throwing angles. If he can’t manipulate those angles, the throwing lanes are different. They can lean more heavily on Eddie Lacy, but if Rodgers isn’t more agile than he was in the second half against Detroit or in the New Orleans game where he was clearly limited, the Packers offense is in real trouble.

Green Bay’s defense needs to make Dallas one dimensional. The Cowboys are very good at both running and throwing, with top-notch talent all over the offense. Taking one thrust away can frustrate Dallas’ flow and balance. Look at what happened last week in their win over Detroit--the Lions eliminated Dez Bryant and he was visibly shaken by it.

Much will be made about Dallas being undefeated on the road this year and Green Bay losing 5 of its last 8 home playoff games. I don’t discount Dallas’ confidence they can win on the road, but they haven’t played in sub-zero weather, snow or the uniquely hostile Lambeau Field. Even though their style of play translates well to the conditions, they’re not accustomed to it.

As long as Rodgers is about 80%, I like the Packers. I think their defense makes a big play or two, and Micah Hyde is a dangerous punt returner. But if Rodgers isn’t any healthier than he was in the second half of the Detroit game, Green Bay is going to lose. Perhaps badly. He’s the MVP for a reason, folks.

Packers 27, Cowboys 24 

- Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7): I’m about to make an unpopular statement…

I firmly believe that the only remaining playoffs teams either of these two squads can beat are one another. I would not pick either team against any other opponent this weekend, not even hosting the lowly-regarded Panthers.

Why do I think that way? Teams who are so heavily reliant on throwing the ball to produce points are too vulnerable in the playoffs. What if Demaryius Thomas or TY Hilton tweaks an ankle in the first quarter? What if Peyton Manning has another bad day, something he’s had a few of lately? What if Andrew Luck keeps misreading coverages and throws a costly INT or two, as he’s done quite a bit more than his supporters like to acknowledge?

Denver has a better defense, but the Colts have quietly stepped up against the run lately. Both defenses feature a shutdown corner (Chris Harris in Denver, Vontae Davis in Indy) but rely on the pass rush to help bail the rest of the secondary out from having to do too much in coverage.

Indy’s key will be to keep Denver’s C.J. Anderson from running wild against them. The Broncos are a volume running team; they finished just 20th in yards per carry, and that number got worse as the year dragged on. If they can make Manning throw the ball more than about 37 times, they stand a very good chance of knocking off the Broncos. In Denver’s four losses, Manning averaged 51 pass attempts. They only won twice when Manning threw more than 37 times. Getting Anderson going early is critical for Denver.

I think Denver gets it done, but I have far less confidence in them than I probably should.

Broncos 31, Colts 28

Monday

- Oregon vs. Ohio State (+6): On about Ohio State’s third offensive possession against Alabama, you could see the proverbial light bulb click on for young QB Cardale Jones. He figured out what Bama was trying to do and he beat them at it. The Crimson Tide didn’t have the athletes to compete with Ohio State’s skill position players, and the Buckeyes never stopped being aggressive in attacking them.

The Ducks do have the athletes to compete. They also have a much better quarterback in Heisman winner Marcus Mariota than Bama had in Blake Sims. Oregon’s more diverse, fast-paced attack is a good counter for Ohio State’s oft-dominating front four. Oregon doesn’t have one featured wideout like Amari Cooper. Their top three WRs had 41, 39 and 37 receptions, while RB Byron Marshall led the team with 66. Devon Allen, Darren Carrington and the other receivers might be young, but they’re all similarly skilled and equally utilized. If the Buckeyes shade to one, Mariota will simply find another.

I’ll be rooting for Ohio State, and I do believe the Buckeyes have a real chance to win. If they can create big plays with the run game the way they did against Alabama, Michigan and Wisconsin, they can outscore Oregon. It’s foolish to bet against Urban Meyer in a big game, but I do think Oregon matches up well.

Ducks 39, Buckeyes 33