Thumbs Up

- Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin. Gordon is an obvious choice coming off a weekend where he broke Ladanian Tomlinson’s NCAA record for rushing yards in a single game. He put up 408 on a ranked Nebraska team that will no longer sniff the privilege of the famed black shirts. Gordon did that in three quarters, too. Yet it was the manner of how he put up those astonishing stats that excites draft evaluators.

Gordon showed excellent acceleration and the ability to consistently plant and cut while at full gallop. It harkens to Robert Smith or even Eric Dickerson in their primes. His vision before he even gets the handoff or toss also stood out; he’s setting up his blocks with subtle body positioning as soon as the ball is snapped. Gordon has always shown good functional strength and speed. It’s been nice to see him used more in the passing game as well, something that many have held as a criticism.

The Badger also unintentionally gained due to the torn ACL by Georgia RB Todd Gurley in his return from the bizarre suspension for profiting from being himself. They are different enough stylistically to appeal to different types as the top running back, but Gordon’s clean bill of health gives him a leg up in the quest to be the first running back selected. Both will merit strong first round consideration, though it’s hard to project the running back market in the draft. I’ll phrase it differently: both Gordon and Gurley (even injured) are two of the top 32 players in this draft class. 

- T.J. Clemmings, T, Pittsburgh. In just his second year playing offense after originally playing defensive line, Clemmings has performed well enough to earn a Senior Bowl invite. That’s tremendous progress for the rapidly improving former basketball player. He’s gained almost 60 pounds but remains light on his feet, and his length and strong hands seem ideally suited to protecting the blind side. Clemmings is likely to test through the roof in postseason workouts--think Taylor Lewan’s impressive numbers (minus the gaudy 40 time) from a year ago--so get on the bandwagon now. In talking to a couple of different NFL scouts, the league is well aware of the Panthers up-and-comer.

I’ve now seen three of his games and he’s clearly got the highest ceiling of any offensive lineman in this draft class. He needs work on anticipating blitzes and stunts and he can actually get out to the second level too quickly on edge plays. Don’t be surprised if he winds up being drafted ahead of Texas A&M’s Cedric Ogbuehi or Iowa’s Brandon Scherff. I strongly believe Clemmings is a better prospect at the same point than Lane Johnson, the #4 overall pick in 2013. Clemmings won’t go that high, in part because the offensive tackle market doesn’t appear to be high relative to other years, but he could wind up being better than any of the three top-4 tackles from that ’13 draft.

- Quinten Rollins, S, Miami OH. The casual fan has probably never heard of Rollins. Even hardcore college football fans would probably struggle to pick him out of a player lineup. He’s much more recognizable as a basketball player, where he played four years for the RedHawks and finished 2nd in career steals.

Rollins was a high school football star in Wilmington OH but didn’t play the game in college until this year. He apparently never lost his superlative ability. He’s a well-built 6’1” and 205 pounds, and the quickness and nose for the ball that made him successful on the hardwood clearly translates to the gridiron. Rollins has proven he can make the athletic play on the ball in the air, and he’s shown surprisingly polished instincts in coverage. Run support is coming along nicely too. Rollins is a thumping hitter crashing on the ball, though he’s much better at attacking receivers in space than runners in traffic. He played quite well against Michigan, including a couple of situations where he locked up first-rounder Devin Funchess.

Rollins is another Senior Bowl invitee and an under-the-radar player you need to make yourself aware of. Here is a YouTube highlight reel to give you a taste. Don’t EVER scout off a highlight tape, but his athleticism, closing burst and hitting prowess are on full display. The RedHawks take on my Ohio Bobcats next Tuesday on national TV, a good chance to get an extended look against a Bobcat team with a strong running game and mobile QB.

Thumbs Down

- Andrus Peat, T, Stanford. Headlining the annual barrage of overrated prospects from Stanford, the NFL scouts appear to finally be waking up to the fact that Peat is nowhere near the player he was hyped to be this past summer. Giving up 3.5 sacks, 10 tackles and a forced fumble to Utah’s Nate Orchard (a legit top-75 prospect) continued Peat’s dismal descent down draft boards. Orchard gets by on exceptional effort and technical prowess more than great athletic ability, and his ability to consistently rock Peat with his hands and avoid the lunging and weak punching from the Stanford left tackle really stood out.

The problem with Peat is that he’s wildly inconsistent. Against Oregon, where most of the defensive players will at least be in NFL camps, Peat looked dominant. The son of former NFL player Todd Peat also kicked Anthony Barr’s tail last year, crushing UCLA’s star pass rusher. He has shown he can be an athletic brick wall when he wants to be. Yet he also has the clunkers like Utah and Notre Dame and Arizona State, where he’s ineffective as a run blocker and a step slow and too tall in pass protection.

In talking to an NFL scout who watched him in person versus Notre Dame, I get the impression the upside is going to prevail come draft weekend. Yet his overall body of work is littered with games that should raise real flags for any team taking him in the top 25 picks. And I would bet good $$ he winds up being selected that highly, deserving or not.

Thumbs Twiddling

- Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon. The elusive Mariota is as tough to pin down as a prospect as he is for defenders trying to bring him down. Opinions on the Ducks QB are all over the map. The nation’s leader in passing efficiency, Mariota often makes the uptempo Oregon offense look easy even against strong defenses. He consistently puts up points in bunches, and his ability to move the chains with both his arm and his legs draws comparisons to Colin Kaepernick or Andrew Luck.

There is no question he’s an elite collegiate quarterback. I would argue he has been a better college QB than Luck, Robert Griffin III or Cam Newton. Everyone loves and respects his football mind and his athletic potential, and he’s got flawless character. Yet many have lingering questions about how well Mariota’s game will translate to the NFL. One anonymous scout told NFL.com he questions if Mariota is “too nice”. There are persistent grumblings that his incredible accuracy and efficiency are as much a product of Oregon’s system as Mariota’s individual ability. Some take shots at his ability to handle adversity, though I would point those folks to last year’s Oregon State game where he was awful for the first 2/3 of the game before completely dominating and rallying the Ducks to a tough win.

His draft stock remains high. Even at this early juncture I doubt Mariota will last beyond the first five picks of the draft. I strongly believe he would have gone in the top 5 in the last draft, too. So why is he twiddling? Because Mariota is unable to climb any higher, it’s time for the nitpickers to expose every little flaw in an effort to create some wiggle room in their evaluations. NFL personnel folks do this too, though not to the extremes which many carry it out. I’ve seen nothing to indicate that Mariota won’t be a very good NFL quarterback very quickly, and I would not hesitate to take him with the #1 overall pick. 

- Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State. The agile Erving made many preseason mock drafts as a first-round tackle projection, yet his underwhelming play as Jameis Winston’s edge protector was steadily pushing him down. He struggled to square up speedier edge targets, often lazy with his feet and not putting much oomph behind his punch.

In order to cover for some injuries, the Seminoles moved the senior into the pivot for the first time in their primetime game in Miami. Erving looked like a duck finding water at center. How good was he?

 

His ability to quickly get out to the second level and lock up targets in space was mighty impressive. His lack of punch is mitigated in the middle because he doesn’t play on an island, and it’s easier to recover when other bodies are tightly packed. Because the rushers inside aren’t as speedy or can’t get the longer start, Erving actually did a better job anchoring even though he’s going against stronger, heavier linemen.

It’s been just one game. Coach Jimbo Fisher indicated the move was permanent, however, and that gives Erving a few more games to demonstrate his ability at his new position. There is a bit of a track record for success here, including Seattle’s solid Max Unger as well as Wes Johnson from last May’s draft. The Vanderbilt left tackle was a marginal tackle prospect but moved to center and was taken in the fifth round. Erving is bigger and stronger and could wind up being the first center taken in a down year for the position if he continues to impress. Can he sustain it? 

Thumb Sucking

- Frank Clark, Edge, ex-Michigan. Had I written this two weeks ago, Clark could very well have been in the Thumbs Up section. The senior pass rusher was showing real technical improvement and increased awareness, which pushed his above-average quickness to another level. He was likely ascending towards a 2nd or 3rd round pick, depending on how well he tested.

After what happened over the weekend, there is little chance Clark gets drafted. He was arrested on some pretty horrific domestic violence charges at an indoor waterpark/hotel in Sandusky, Ohio, the city of my birth.  The initial report with the sordid details is available here from the Sandusky Register. Michigan subsequently dismissed Clark from the program on Monday morning.

This was not his first serious scrape with the law. He was arrested for felony theft two years ago for stealing a laptop, a charge which was wiped out after he successfully completed his probation. With all the brouhaha over Ray Rice, Adrian Peterson, Greg Hardy and others, it seems extremely unlikely any team will take a chance on a two-time criminal who brutally assaulted a woman in front of small children.