The commentary this week will be brief. My eyes are dilated for medical reasons and I cannot focus on the screen for long, so this week it’s just the picks.

Last Week: 11-4. Another sunny forecast raises the season record to 69-36-1

Gambling Update: Two of my three wagers paid off, bringing a $1500 return. Unfortunately the biggest bet did not, so the week was a net loss. I also miscalculated last week’s total in my favor, so the news got even worse. The virtual account now sits at $13,500 after starting with $10K. 

Thursday Night

San Diego at Denver (-7.5)

Best game of the weekend is the first one. The Chargers will keep it close, but too much Denver firepower.

Broncos 33, Chargers 28

Sunday Games

- Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons (+3.5)

This game is in London, which takes away Atlanta’s home field advantage. The Lions are beaten up all over the offense, but their defense should be enough to win against Matt Ryan not playing in the Georgia Dome. Should be enough. Get up early for this 9:30 AM ET kickoff.

Lions 21, Falcons 20

- Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1)

Green Bay is coming off a spectacular October, while the Saints threw away a road win in Detroit despite being the better team. Desperation trumps relaxation, somehow.

Saints 33, Packers 28

- Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5)

The marquee Sunday game pits two 5-1 teams. I trust Carson Palmer more than Nick Foles, and I think Arizona’s defense does enough to slow down the Philly offense to get the close win.

Cardinals 26, Eagles 24

- Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-6.5)

The Bears are much better on the road, and the Patriots will not handle their passing game. When the Bears are right, they are very good. They get it right this week against all the odds. At least that’s what the gut tells me.

Bears 24, Patriots 20

- Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)

The Bengals have been lousy since opening 3-0, which included a win in Baltimore. The Ravens return the favor, thanks in part to Cincy not having A.J. Green or Rey Maualuga. I’ll put $500 on the visitors getting points.

Ravens 27, Bengals 17

- Buffalo Blls at New York Jets (-2.5)

Interesting that the Jets are favored despite being the clearly inferior team. Apparently the Percy Harvin effect is expected to elevate New York. I can see the bounce working this week.

Jets 20, Bills 17

- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (+1.5)

The Titans will start rookie Zach Mettenberger at quarterback…against J.J. Watt. “Mett” will find some success down the field but will also throw a couple of ridiculous INTs that give the game to the Texans.

Texans 30, Titans 28

- St. Louis Rams at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)

It took the Rams two once-in-a-blue-moon trick plays to beat the Seahawks last week. The bag is empty on the road, though I do worry about a KC letdown from their big win in San Diego.

Chiefs 28, Rams 20

- Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)

The Jaguars improving defense gives them a real chance to win two in a row. Miami is wildly unpredictable, so good some weeks and so bland in others. I see a fallback after the big win in Chicago.

Jaguars 24, Dolphins 22

- Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Bucs would be my 32^nd ranked team if filling out a power poll. Minnesota isn’t much higher, but they’re definitely better enough to win on the road.

Vikings 17, Buccaneers 16

- Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+4.5)

Stunning stat of the week: the Seahawks have just one QB hurry in the fourth quarter of their 6 games. I think they remedy that drought in Carolina, though Cam Newton could make them pay. I think Carolina cutting Charles Godfrey sends a message that gets through, enough for them to cover. $500 on the home team +4.5

Seahawks 21, Panthers 17

- Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-7)

The Browns lost to a winless team last week. Oakland is winless, so this would seem to be a great chance for them to break the vicious circle of losing. It wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I’ll go with the safer pick here. Cleveland is my survivor fantasy pick this week, a tough one to select if you’ve used Kansas City or Dallas already.

Browns 27, Raiders 24 

- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

Not often the Steelers are home dogs, but it’s hard to see their defense slowing down the awesome Indy attack with Luck & Co. Pittsburgh’s offense will find some success but not quite enough.

Colts 36, Steelers 31

Monday Night

- Washington at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

I applaud Washington changing from Kirk Cousins to Colt McCoy at QB, but Dallas is a tough place for him to break in. It’s Washington’s defense that will be the problem in this one. Dallas wins big, for $1000.

Cowboys 37, Ethnic Slurs 20 

Betting recap

Dallas -9.5 for $1000

Carolina +4.5 for $500

Baltimore +1.5 for $500

Bonus college picks

Michigan State 30, Michigan 13

Utah 25, USC 24

Mississippi State 28, Kentucky 27

Ohio 24, Western Michigan 20