Last Week: 9-5-1. In past years I’ve counted a tie as a loss, but this year I’m more of an optimist so I’ll do like the NFL and register it as a tie. 58-32-1 on the season

Gambling Update: Only one of my three wagers hit, but thankfully it was the big one. Denver earned me $3000, overcoming the $1500 I lost on Atlanta and San Diego. After starting at $10,000 I’m now up to $16,000. And no, I’m not actually wagering this kind of cash. My wife would kill me in my sleep. 

Thursday Night

- New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5): Thursday night games have become rather notorious for being uncompetitive blowouts; every game has featured a margin of at least 21 points during the game. Last week the Texans rallied back strong against the Colts but came up short because of inadequate QB play.

Speaking of inadequate QB play, have you seen the New York Jets lately? While Geno Smith had a few positives last week against Denver, don’t forget his late pick-six to former Patriot Aqib Talib. Bill Belichick certainly won’t. The Jets do have a chance if they can manufacture some turnovers and keep Tom Brady guessing on the pressure points, but even then they still have to score against New England’s talented defense. Having the NFL’s worst pass offense doesn’t engender much confidence in that happening for New York. Although the Pats are never a good bet as a double-digit favorite, they are an easy pick here.

Patriots 20, Jets 10

Sunday Games

- San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-6): The marquee matchup is an attractive one for the stylistic divergence of the two teams. Denver has Peyton Manning and the precise, methodical air attack with his impressive cadre of weapons. San Francisco has Colin Kaepernick, at his best on the move and supported by a nasty running attack and offensive line.

One of the keys here is Denver’s underrated run defense. The Broncos allow just 3.3 yards per carry, and they’ve been improving that number lately at just 2.8 over the last three games. Their gap integrity and tackling are both very good, presenting a real challenge to Frank Gore and the 49ers offense. San Francisco runs for a lot of yards but they aren’t great at rushing efficiency. They rank 3^rd in attempts per game but just 18^th in yards per attempt. They’re actually much more efficient throwing the ball than running, yet they’re 30^th in the league in pass attempts per game. The numbers say they need to throw more to beat the Broncos.

Of course that’s a double-edged sword. Throwing more means more incompletions and more time for Manning to have the ball in his hands, more opportunities for the Broncos to score. Giving extra shots to the best marksman is never a good idea in a shootout. The Niners will have to create a turnover margin of at least +1 to win. Issues at running back for Denver do create some opportunity for a fumbled exchange or a missed blitz pickup, but it’s hard to have confidence in any team led by Peyton Manning being careless with the ball as a predication of a road victory.

Broncos 28, 49ers 20

- Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (-7): The Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFC South. They’ve beaten Tampa Bay and New Orleans by a combined 86-27 margin, with almost 1,000 yards of offense in those two games. The Falcons defense is 31^st in yardage allowed, giving up 420 per game but 450 on the road, as well as 28 points per game. They’re coming off a discouraging trip to Chicago, not playing well against a lesser defense than what they’ll see in Baltimore. If the Falcons offense can’t do more, this one could look a lot like Baltimore’s other NFC South games. #FreeAntoneSmith

Too bad for the Ravens they’re an AFC North team…Ravens for $1000.

Ravens 30, Falcons 20

- Arizona Cardinals at Oakland Raiders (+4): Carson Palmer makes his return to Oakland, leading the impressive, well-rounded Cardinals against the winless Raiders. The Black Hole will no doubt be hostile towards Palmer, even though it was management who bungled his situation far more than the quarterback’s fault. I like the opportunistic Arizona secondary to score a touchdown here. Derek Carr has proven he’s worthy of building around in Oakland, but he’s a rookie without much weaponry who is going to make mistakes.

Cardinals 27, Raiders 17 

- New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (-2.5): The Lions defense is playing consistently outstanding football, but the Saints offense will be a real test. Or will it? No Jimmy Graham and a suspect offensive line make this New Orleans team a little less ominous. Drew Brees’ play has suffered as a result. His Detroit counterpart Matthew Stafford isn’t playing to expectations either, with similar causes: the Lions OL has badly regressed, and they’ll be without Calvin Johnson once again.

One reason to like the Lions here is the Ryan factor. Stafford had his best outing of the season against Rex Ryan and the Jets. Rob Ryan’s Saints defense is similar to his brother’s, though less talented up front. As long as the Lions can make more field goals than they miss--something they have yet to do in over a month--the home team is the better team.

Lions 26, Saints 24

- Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears (-3): I’ll be in Chicago this weekend, though I will not be at this game. If you’re in the area, I’ll be at the Park Tavern in Rosemont on Saturday watching college football with a couple of my favorite draftniks. Come join us for a day of football, food, beer and draft talk. My presence in Chicago portends very good things for the Bears. The last five times I’ve visited Chicago on a football weekend, the Bears have come up victorious. I like them a lot in the chilly, damp weather against the inconsistent Dolphins.

Bears 20, Dolphins 17

- Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-7.5): Green Bay’s defense has been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks in recent times. Enter Cam Newton fresh off a game where he rushed for over 100 yards as well as throwing for almost 300. The problem for Newton and the Panthers is that he is the entire offense; the other Carolina rushers netted just 40 yards on 18 carries. A week earlier the RBs had 59 yards on 19 carries. Newton is playing very well, but he cannot outgun Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay by himself. Rodgers reinserted his name into the MVP conversation with his brilliant comeback drive in Miami, and he keeps the train rolling here against a shaky Panthers secondary.

Interestingly (to me anyways) is that as of Thursday morning over 65% of the action on this game has flowed to Carolina. That’s an awful lot of confidence on the visitors to keep it close. Frankly I don’t understand that logic, and I sense an opportunity to capitalize on what I think is a solid matchup for Green Bay. I’ll put $500 on the home team to cover the 7.5 points.

Packers 36, Panthers 27 

- Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-6): Last week the Vikings couldn’t win at home despite Detroit missing both Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush, missing two field goals and the Lions offensive line playing poorly. The 17-3 score reflects how dominant Detroit’s defensive front was against the horrific Vikings offensive line. Buffalo is one of the few teams that can bring the same amount of pressure and aggression. The Bills completely snuff out the run with just the front four, and that’s a serious problem for rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater. I like the Bills to bounce back from a disappointing loss to New England in a big way. They are my survivor fantasy pick, and I’m still very much alive:

Bills 24, Vikings 6 

- Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6): The Browns as road favorites by almost a touchdown? Seriously? Even though the Browns have been impressive, never more than in pounding Pittsburgh last week, it’s hard to have confidence in them being a touchdown better than anyone on the road. Then again, these Jaguars are a complete train wreck playing in a stadium where fans are more interested in the swimming pools and world’s largest video panel than the action on the field.

Cleveland wins thanks to its outstanding special teams and ball security, having turned the ball over just twice in five games. They’re also protecting Brian Hoyer well, allowing just 6 sacks. On the flip side, Jacksonville has just one takeaway in the last five weeks. Bad matchup for the home team, which is so bad they need the other team to make mistakes to win. Cleveland doesn’t make mistakes.

Browns 29, Jaguars 24

- Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+7.5): Not to beat a dead horse, but many very intelligent people thought the Rams would be a playoff contender thanks to a dominant defensive front. I begged to differ and suffered the scorn for it all summer. Yet even this avowed skeptic is stunned at how bad this team is, and the vaunted defense has not recorded a sack in a month. They’re also near the bottom in yards per rush allowed. Even playing with an early 14-0 lead wasn’t enough to help them last week at home against San Francisco. They’re not going to get that chance against the angry Seahawks. This one is going to be ugly, folks. $1500 on the visitors.

Seahawks 33, Rams 10

- Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5): The Battle of I-74 features two first-place teams in a game that could wind up deciding home field in an eventual playoff game. If the Bengals are even to make it that far their defense must play better than it has the last two weeks. Heading to Indianapolis won’t make that an easy task. Andrew Luck is in the midst of one of the most impressive strings any quarterback has ever had:

That’s an awful lot of yards and touchdowns. The gambling community has noticed; an astonishing 96% of all bets on the +/- 48.5 line have been on the over. Andy Dalton and the Bengals are not going to outscore the Colts in a shootout, not without A.J. Green on the field.

Colts 33, Bengals 28 

- Tennessee Titans at Washington (-5.5): The battle of the backup quarterbacks is the least appealing game on this week’s docket. As such, I shall write no more about it.

Okay, I lied. If you are hard up in a survivor fantasy game, this is the only time all year you should even consider using Washington. I’m not saying you should, but if you’re full of derring-do this is the time to show it.

Ethnic Slurs 31, Titans 27 

- Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-4.5): Looking for an early front-runner for defensive rookie of the year? While Kyle Fuller in Chicago gets most of the attention, don’t sleep on talented Chargers CB Jason Verrett. My friend Kyle Posey from BoltBlitz wrote an excellent piece about the diminutive wonder, who was my top-rated CB in a pretty skilled draft class. The resurgent San Diego secondary is a challenge for Alex Smith and the Chiefs offense, who lack a viable field-stretcher to open up space against the good coverage. If Eric Weddle--arguably the best safety in the game--doesn’t have to worry about the deep part of the field, he’ll make life miserable for Smith on the short and intermediate routes. The Xs and Os favor the home team in what should be a defensive struggle, as the teams rank 2^nd (SD) and 5^th (KC) in points allowed. The line is a little big for a low-scoring affair, so if you’re tempted I would encourage a conservative sum on the underdog Chiefs to cover, but a win outright seems a real stretch.

Chargers 17, Chiefs 15

- New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5): Can the surprising Cowboys handle their good fortune and abundant media attention? That’s really the question here, because they are the better football team. In the past, that has been a very legit problem for Tony Romo & Co. This Dallas team does appear different, not relying on Romo to win games but rather manage them as a devastating rushing attack and smart defense leads the way. We’ll find out if they truly are different with the rival Giants visiting Jerry World.

Humble prediction: if the Giants score on their opening drive, they will win the game. Otherwise the Dallas defense will remain confident and prevail. Losing Victor Cruz after already losing Jerrel Jernigan is a real blow for the New York passing attack, and they’re without top RB Rashad Jennings to boot. They’re not going to come from behind here, so getting out in front and shaking Dallas’ confidence is imperative.

Cowboys 27, Giants 20 

Monday Night

- Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4): These are two of the stranger 3-3 teams in the league. It’s easy to see where both teams win and lose, yet they somehow remain unpredictable. Pittsburgh leans heavily on a diverse offense featuring LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount running and Antonio Brown receiving. They have almost nothing else, and when a team can shut down one (or both) the Steelers offense really bogs down.

Houston wins with Arian Foster running and J.J. Watt scoring defensive touchdowns. Sure, Ryan Fitzpatrick can run a drive here and there where he feeds Andre Johnson and Nuk Hopkins, but it’s unreliable. I’m more confident in Pittsburgh’s offense than Houston’s defense behind Watt. The Texans are bad up the middle, where ILB Brian Cushing is now a detriment instead of a Pro Bowler and D.J. Swearinger gives up two big plays for every one he makes. Teams have to tackle well to slow down the Steelers, and the Texans rank near the top in missed tackles.

Foster will get his yards and perhaps a touchdown or two, but it won’t be enough unless Fitzpatrick plays four quarters of solid football. This is one of those games where if they play 100 times I would venture that Pittsburgh wins 51 to 49, so it’s a very low confidence pick.

Steelers 21, Texans 17 

Betting recap:

Seattle -7.5 for $1500

Baltimore -7 for $1000

Green Bay -7.5 for $500