This weekend’s slate features a host of home underdogs, making this a challenging forecast. It’s getting to the time of the season where teams have either refuted or confirmed preseason expectations, and it’s time to put those summer concepts aside. That is easier said than done.

Last Week: 14-1 and the only miss was taking my Lions, a pick I would have changed Sunday morning if given the chance. 49-27 on the season.

Gambling Update: I’m hot, baby! Hitting on all three wagers last week (NYG, STL and SEA) brought home $4000. That sound you hear is me making the Johnny Football money sign as I type. The bankroll sits at $15,500 after starting at $10,000.

Thursday Night

- Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+2.5): The Texans host the Colts in a battle for first place in the AFC South. This is a critical game if the Texans hope to make the playoffs, their best chance to keep a leg up on the surging Colts. J.J. Watt will have to prove once again he’s the league’s MVP, because if he isn’t great then Andrew Luck is likely to surpass him.

The quarterback battle here is a major issue for Houston. Andrew Luck vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick just isn’t a fair fight. It’s like Mark Price vs. Dwight Howard in a free throw shooting contest. Howard might get hot and sink a few in a row, but Price’s freakish consistency and reliability will prevail in the long haul. The key to winning that battle is keeping Price from getting to the line, and the Texans do have the ability to contrl the pace and the clock behind Arian Foster. I just don’t see them making enough plays to counteract the matchup of Luck and both TY Hilton and Reggie Wayne versus the Houston safety combo of D.J. Swearinger and Kendrick Lewis. The latter has been a pleasant surprise for Houston, but when Lewis last saw Luck his Chiefs defense gave up 35 points in a half…much of that thanks to Lewis being buttered toast. Indy hasn’t lost on Thursday night in a decade, and they keep that impressive string going while seizing control of the NFL’s worst division. At least this one shouldn’t be a blowout. Shouldn’t.

Colts 27, Texans 24 

Sunday Games

- Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5): The news of Bengals star receiver A.J. Green being carted off during Wednesday’s practice after aggravating his toe injury are a concern here. Cincinnati does have other talented receivers, but Green is the straw that stirs their milkshake.

Will the Panthers be able to drink their milkshake? It depends on which Carolina team shows up. The one with the dominant front four and clutch passing game that knocked off Detroit and rallied for a victory over Chicago will win. The lethargic, chaotic unit that was blown out by AFC North teams Pittsburgh and Baltimore doesn’t stand a chance in The Jungle.

That’s the quandary here. In meteorological terms, the Panthers are the pop-up thunderstorm. Even though weather forecasters know there will be some, forecasting exactly where and when they hit is near impossible even with the most sophisticated equipment. The forecast here say the Bengals still win, but it’s a low confidence pick.

Bengals 24, Panthers 20

- New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3): I’ll kill the suspense early; I’m picking the Giants to win outright on the road in a divisional game. Why? There are a few reasons…

• The Eagles offense ranks 29^th in yards per play over the last three weeks.
• Philly has scored five TDs via defense or special teams in the last two weeks. That is completely unsustainable.
• Eli Manning is completing over 70% of his passes in the last three games, looking even more comfortable and confident with Odell Beckham Jr. in the lineup.
• Philly’s offensive line is atrocious at run blocking, and their 3.3 yards per carry over the last month means too many 3^rd-and-longs for Nick Foles against a good Giants pass defense.

Giants 26, Eagles 24

- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+3): New England’s sputtering offense got back on track a bit last week, but Buffalo presents a different sort of challenge. The Bills have the ability to play the run with just four linemen, keeping the linebackers free to roam in coverage and make it even harder for Tom Brady to find one of his pedestrian receivers getting any separation. Jerry Hughes and Mario Williams can also bring the heat off the edge, while Marcell Dareus comes off a week where he destroyed Detroit’s interior offensive line. This is a tough matchup for the Patriot offense.

The problem for Buffalo is its own offense. Kyle Orton makes their passing attack more viable, but he’s still working out the kinks and timing in the offense. I don’t see their rushing attack having much success. I also don’t see Orton avoiding the rush or avoiding a catastrophic turnover like his gift-wrapped pick-six of a week ago.

Ah, screw it. My gut feeling is that the Bills celebrate the approved new ownership with an improbable victory.

Bills, 23, Patriots 20

- Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3): I could give you an exhaustive breakdown here, but I’ll keep this one very simple: Matt Ryan at home against Chicago’s craptastic linebackers and safeties is the single biggest mismatch of any X’s vs. O’s on the entire slate of games this week. Don’t overthink this one, folks. I’ll put $500 on the Falcons.

Falcons 38, Bears 31

- Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5): Dallas has been a wonderful surprise on the young season. Between Demarco Murray’s league-leading rushing and the shockingly effective pass defense, the Cowboys are an impressive overachiever.

Hold onto that positive sentiment, Dallas fans, because this game is not likely to be pretty. I do think the Cowboys offense will find some success thanks to the truly great offensive line and the downfield playmaking ability of Dez Bryant. Unfortunately for Dallas, I think the Seattle offense will eviscerate the defense. Seattle’s excellent special teams will prevent the Cowboys from getting field position and could create some shorter fields for its own offense. The mystique of the crowd will rattle Tony Romo for an INT or two, and that will be more than enough for the home team to prevail. The 9.5 points is a tough sell in either direction, however.

Seahawks 32, Cowboys 24

- Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (+3): The Packers got themselves healthy by feasting on division rivals Minnesota and Chicago. Heading to Miami presents a different challenge, however. The Dolphins are rested after their English excursion. And they have history on their side, as noted by the Dolphins’ own webpage:

Breaking down the Dolphins’ bye history, the first thing that jumps out is that the last time they went into their off week with a 2-2 record the opponents the following game were the Green Bay Packers. 

It’s the exact same scenario this year, and the Dolphins can only hope for a similar result as 2010 when they returned from their bye with a 23-20 overtime victory at Lambeau Field. 

If you believe in omens, here’s another encouraging bye stat for the Dolphins: Miami has alternated wins and losses after its bye for the past nine seasons, starting with a 20-14 loss against the Buffalo Bills in 2005. 

If the trend continues, that means the Dolphins will win because they’re coming off a post-bye loss in 2013.

If I learned one thing in my years as a history major at Ohio University, it is to not argue with history. I don’t know how they’ll knock off the superior Packers, but Miami somehow gets it done.

Dolphins 27, Packers 24

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-1.5): Oddly the Browns are not a home dog despite hosting the team which has mastered them for years. Cleveland comes off an epic comeback, the largest one ever for a road team in just one quarter. They’re a team figuring out how they can compete despite limited talent.

Pittsburgh is sort of the opposite. The Steelers do not look good, and often play like a team not as good as the sum of its parts. They are quite vulnerable here to a Browns team that is not beating itself with turnovers or poor special teams. If Pittsburgh cannot steal the ball a couple of times, it’s hard to see them taking a win with them on the short trip home.

Browns 20, Steelers 17

- Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3): Don’t automatically dismiss the host Buccaneers here. Since their blowout loss in Atlanta, Tampa Bay has won in Pittsburgh and took the Saints to overtime in New Orleans. Going back to Mike Glennon at quarterback has stabilized the offense, while the defense is finally creating some turnovers.

Still, the Bucs are home underdogs for a reason. The Ravens love to throw the ball, and even though they do so with an inefficiency rivaling the health insurance industry, the sheer volume (over 38 attempts per game) presents real problems for a secondary that struggles in both coverage and quickly tackling the receiver. This should be a big day for Ravens WR Steve Smith, who has some pirate feathers in his cap already from his years with the Panthers.

Ravens 34, Buccaneers 25

- Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (NL): We will learn a lot about Detroit in this game. Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are both likely to not play (fantasy alert!). The Lions are coming off a dispiriting loss at home to Buffalo where the team played well for exactly 90 seconds. They’re on their third kicker and have made just 4-of-12 field goals on the season.

In spite of all that, the Lions should prevail in their first outdoor game in Minnesota in almost 40 years. Minnesota has some injury issues of its own, notably underrated safety Harrison Smith. The Detroit defensive front should handle business against a leaky Vikings line, where left tackle Matt Kalil continues to emerge as one of the more underreported draft busts in recent times. The Lions snuff out the run without needing any help from the back seven. As long as they can keep Cordarrelle Patterson from being a one-man wrecking crew like he was when last these two met, the Lions have a major advantage. And given how scant the Vikings have used Patterson, I like those chances.

Lions 20, Vikings 16

- Denver Broncos at New York Jets (+10): Yeah, sorry here Jets fans. Not gonna happen. Be happy if the final score is within three touchdowns. I’ll put $1500 on the Broncos.

Broncos 41, Jets 9

- Washington at Arizona Cardinals (NL): Arizona’s questionable quarterbacks cloud this forecast. Both Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton are questionable, leaving rookie Logan Thomas as the likely starter. Thomas completed just one of his eight passes last week, though it did go for an 81-yard touchdown. The Cardinals have a good running game and lots of receiving weapons to help the youngster, but Washington’s pass rush is a real problem for him. Thomas was often paralyzed by the rush at Virginia Tech, and the ACC didn’t have anyone like Ryan Kerrigan or Brian Orakpo bringing the heat. I’ll trust in Arizona’s defense at home to stymie the erratic Kirk Cousins, but there is no outcome here that would surprise me.

Cardinals 26, Ethnic Slurs 21

- Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (NL): The no line on this game is ostensibly because of the questionable status of Titans QB Jake Locker. It could just as accurately indicate the decided apathy towards two of the four worst teams in the league. The Titans rank 29^th in point differential at -51 through 5 games, meaning they lose by an average of 10 points every week. The Jaguars are doubly worse, coming in dead last at -102. I’ll go with the obvious mathematical conclusion here…

Titans 20, Jaguars 10

- San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+8.5): The Raiders fired Dennis Allen after their London loss two weeks ago, replacing him with Tony Sparano. Most NFL fans know Sparano as the leader of some bad offenses in both Miami and New York (Jets), so it’s hard to imagine him having much of a positive impact on the NFL’s lowest-scoring team at just 13 points per game. Guess which team has the #1 scoring defense? If you said the Chargers, have a cookie. Easy pick for survivor fantasy games if you didn’t burn the Chargers last week against the Jets. I’ll put $1000 on it before the number, which opened at 7.5 at many books, goes up any further.

Chargers 33, Raiders 16 

Monday Night

- San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+3): I was impressed with how effectively St. Louis played on both sides of the ball in their furious comeback effort against the Eagles last week. However, that effort fell short. And it’s negated by their collapse against Dallas in St. Louis’ prior game. If the Rams are to win, they need to put the first half of the Cowboys game and the second half of the Eagles game together. It could happen, honestly it could. Austin Davis is better than you think and Kenny Britt’s head appears extricated from his rectum, giving Davis a viable receiving threat. The Niners are inconsistent enough and troubled enough to facilitate the improbable upset. I worry about overconfidence by the visitors, but then again I remember the last time San Francisco visited the Edward Jones Dome…35-11 49ers and it wasn’t that close, and that was facing a significantly better Rams defense.

49ers 31, Rams 20

Betting recap:

Denver -10 for $1500

San Diego -8.5 for $1000

Atlanta -3 for $500