Last Week: 4-9. Really?!? Ugh. 35-26 at the quarter pole of the season.

Gambling Update: I might have been awful straight up, but my wagering choices were significantly better. The Colts and Chiefs both came home winners. On $2250 in wagers I brought home $2500, a tidy little profit on an otherwise dismal forecast. I’m now at $11,500 after starting at $10,000.

Thursday Night

- Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-9.5): I was impressed with Teddy Bridgewater in his starting debut, leading the Vikings to several scoring drives as they scorched the Falcons. However, he injured his ankle in that win and now has to play the rival Packers on a short week. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable, but I think they’ll hit their stride in Lambeau Field against a wobbled rookie. I also like how Green Bay’s offense worked out some kinks last week against the Bears. Aaron Rodgers looked more dialed in and accurate, making quicker decisions and doing a better job of putting the ball where only Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb could get it. Minnesota’s defense can’t hold up if that same Rodgers appears at home. It’s not a lock that happens, but it’s more likely to occur than not.

The Thursday night games have been brutally one-sided affairs so far. I think the Vikings will keep this interesting. It might even keep me awake past halftime.

Packers 27, Vikings 17

Sunday Games

- Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5): The best thing about the Texans is the defensive front. Aside from J.J. Watt, the best player in the game today, fellow linemen Jared Crick and Tim Jamison are both showing they can get into the backfield. But Dallas has arguably the best offensive line in the league. If anyone can neutralize Watt, it’s the Cowboys. Add in how well the Cowboys run the football with league leader DeMarco Murray and I think the Dallas offense will be just fine. Their apparent commitment to the run will really pay off here. When they do go with the play action pass, Texans safety D.J. Swearinger will not be able to handle Dez Bryant or Terrance Williams.

Houston’s offense is sporadically decent but makes mistakes. Dallas isn’t great on D but they have speed, and that presents problems for the Texans. Andre Johnson isn’t running away from anyone anymore, and other than Nuke Hopkins they lack a home run threat. When an opposing offense only has one viable field stretcher, the Dallas D can handle it. There is legit fear the Cowboys will be unable to handle their recent relative success, but I think that epic fail comes in another week or two.

Cowboys 29, Texans 21

- Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (-7.5): The Cardinals are undefeated and coming off a bye week. They’re a handful offensively even with Drew Stanton at the controls, thanks to the emergence of Michael Floyd and John Brown as great receiving accomplices to Larry Fitzgerald. The improved offensive line and the versatile rushing attack provides real balance.

All of that is great, but the Cardinals are not winning this game. Peyton Manning and the Broncos are also coming off a bye. They’re at home and have had time to dissect Arizona’s fine defense. Manning will not be caught unaware, and that gives Denver a major advantage. He will throw for his 500th career touchdown in this game, likely before halftime. Only Brett Favre has thrown more. No way he loses on a day where he notches such a historic mark. I really like the Cardinals but I’m not sure this game will be close unless the visitors can score on defense or special teams.

Broncos 30, Cardinals 20

- Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-4): It’s gone largely unnoticed thanks to the quality (or lack thereof) of the opponents, but Andrew Luck has been amazing the last two weeks:

 

The Ravens offer stiffer competition, but Luck should still have a strong game at home. Baltimore will also find some success in the passing game. The apparent rediscovery of Torrey Smith last week makes them even more dangerous, and the Colts don’t have anyone who can even remotely cover bombastic Steve Smith. This one figures to be a shootout, and always go with the better QB in a shootout.

Colts 36, Ravens 33

- Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Total gut hunch here--the Browns off the bye pick up the road win. I really like their defense against Tennessee’s punchless offense.

Browns 20, Titans 16

- Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3.5): The Falcons suffered some major hits last week. They lost starting center Joe Hawley, right tackle Lamar Holmes and safety William Moore in last week’s loss in Minnesota. I have a hard time seeing them right the leaking ship with another road game against a quickly improving Giants team. New York has won two straight and the offense is really coming around. They also lead the league in takeaways, while Falcons QB Matt Ryan has thrown all five of his INTs on the road. His QB Rating on the road (67.2) is less than half of what it is at home (142.2), and it’s not like the Vikings are world-beaters in the secondary. I’ll take the Giants for $1000.

Giants 38, Falcons 17

- Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (-7.5): Former Lions coach Jim Schwartz now runs the Bills defense, and he returns to Motown with his hands full. The Lions offense has been more efficient even though the offensive line is not playing well. Matthew Stafford looks smarter and more fundamentally sound in the new offense. Schwartz was not well-liked by many offensive players (I’m biting my tongue off here in not saying more), and you can bet they’re looking to exploit his new defense.

Then there’s Detroit’s own defense, No. 1 in the league in fewest yards allowed per game by 20 yards over the next closest team (San Francisco, for the curious). It ranks 3rd in sack percentage and has allowed only one pass play longer than 20 yards all season. They do a fantastic job of tackling the receiver quickly. That skill matters a lot in this one, as the Bills have several solid weapons. Freshly unretired QB Kyle Orton, who takes over for mistake-plagued E.J. Manuel, gets a tough draw in his first game.

Lions 27, Bills 17

- Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (-2.5): I’m internet friends with Bears blogger Andrew Dannehy, and we had a nice exchange about the Panthers this week. He was wondering how in the world they beat my Lions, because since that pretty dominant performance in Week 2 the Panthers have been awful on both sides of the ball. They’ve given up 75 points to Pittsburgh and Baltimore in the last two weeks, and neither of those offenses is as talented as Chicago’s. Mr. Dannehy was really struggling with the outlier that was the Lions game. Can they really dial that effort up again?

I think the potential is certainly there for a Panther reawakening. Luke Kuechly has not played well the last two weeks, and I believe the reigning Defensive Player of the Year will bounce back with a vengeance. The bookmakers clearly still believe in them, though the line might be more of a reflection of how poorly Chicago’s defense played against Green Bay. At some books the money has even moved the line a little in favor of the home team. I’ll side with the money when there are so many unpredictable moving parts at play.

Panthers 24, Bears 21

- St. Louis Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5): It still boggles my mind that the supposed strength of the Rams, their highly touted defensive line, is one of the worst in football so far. Pro Football Focus grades them 31st out of 32 in run defense, and they rank dead last with just one sack in three games. They’re also dead last in passes defended and 27th in turnovers created. Philly’s offensive line is horrible with all its injuries, but I’m not sure the Rams will be able to exploit it. I suspect surprising Rams backup QB Austin Davis will keep it close, enough that I will put $500 on the underdog to cover. But I don’t see them winning outright, not when the Eagles can manufacture points like they did against the 49ers in Week 4.

Eagles 24, Rams 20

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-10.5): Enjoy that win over Pittsburgh last week, Bucs fans. You might not see another one for a while. It won’t happen in New Orleans, even though Rob Ryan’s defense is back to being its typical terrible self.

Saints 37, Buccaneers 24

- Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5): As I was reminded this week (thanks El Turco) my picks on every 49ers game have ben horribly wrong. I’m 0-4 and the hyperbole in either direction on their 2-2 record looks foolish in retrospect. In light of a month of downright lousy analysis about San Francisco, I’m calling this one based simply on my gut impression when I typed out the initial matchup. Bet on it, or against it, at your peril.

49ers 30, Chiefs 20

- New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-8): One of the hidden stories thus far is just how well Philip Rivers is playing in leading the Chargers to a 3-1 record. He’s a viable MVP candidate, leading the league in passer rating at 114.1 thanks in part to a 9/1 TD-to-INT ratio. Rivers is completing over 7-% of his passes and he’s doing so while throwing the ball all over the field, not just on safe quick-hit routes. His line does a decent job giving him time, and he’s doing a fantastic job reading the coverage and finding the holes.

Every accolade I just bestowed upon Rivers does not apply to Jets QB Geno Smith. It wouldn’t apply to Mike Vick either, Jets fans. This is going to be a long plane ride home for Rex Ryan’s boys.

Chargers 27, Jets 13

- Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (-3): Most everyone watched the public humiliation of Tom Brady and the New England passing game on Monday night in Kansas City. It doesn’t get any easier with the rested Bengals coming to town. Cincinnati leads the league in opposing yards per pass attempt, and they’ve had a bye week to prepare for Brady and his underwhelming supporting cast.

It sure seems like the Bengals should win and stay in the undefeated ranks. But I refuse to write off the Patriots and Bill Belichick. I think New England’s defense will play to its potential in this one. They are a cornered animal, and Brady is still dangerous. So is the defense, and I’m worried about some post-bye rust from Andy Dalton and the Bengals offense. This is the proverbial middle finger from the cocksure Brady to all the people throwing dirt on the Patriots.

Patriots 26, Bengals 20

- Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5): Last week the Steelers somehow allowed the woeful Buccaneers to pull off an improbable comeback to seize their first victory. Can the same happen this week with another winless Florida team?

If Pittsburgh cannot curb the penalties and mental errors, it very well could. The Jaguars have been atrocious; their -94 point differential in just four games is one of the five worst in the Super Bowl era. Yet they seem to have an offensive pulse with rookie QB Blake Bortles, and the Steelers defense is both injury-plagued and undisciplined. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, their own defense has been even worse. A big game from LeVeon Bell should save Pittsburgh from further ignominy, but don’t be too confident about it.

Steelers 34, Jaguars 28

Monday Night

- Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins (+8.5): Washington QB Kirk Cousins was badly overmatched and confused by the Giants defense. Now he has to face Seattle a week after turning the ball over five times. Yeah, good luck with that. I think the Skins defense will play better but they can only do so much. Halftime = bedtime in this likely yawner. I’ll put $500 on it. You could double the 8.5 and I’d still take it.

Seahawks 37, Ethnic Slurs 17

Betting recap:

Giants -3.5 for $1000

Rams +7.5 for $500

Seahawks +8.5 for $500 

I no longer pick college games, but here are a handful of bonus picks:

Alabama 29, Ole Miss 10

East Carolina 66, SMU 6

Mississippi State 31, Texas A&M 30