Time for my annual rant against the NFL’s ridiculous bye system…

Several teams are on byes this week, among them the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals. It’s Week 4. Some teams don’t get byes for two more months. The competitive unbalance is criminal.

Every division should get a bye at the exact same time. They start in Week 6, with the AFC East and NFC West. Week 7 gives byes to the AFC South and NFC North. Week 8 is the AFC North and NFC East. Week 9 is the AFC West and NFC South all on byes. The first game out of the bye is a divisional matchup for every team, too. It’s really not that hard.

Last Week: 11-5, a step up from consecutive 10-6 weeks. 31-17 on the young season.

Gambling Update: After two weeks of big losses, I turned things around by sweeping all three of my virtual wagers. The Colts, Lions and Bears all came through, winning me a total of $4000 to put me back in black on the season. The kitty purrs with $11,250 after starting at $10,000.

Thursday Game

- New York Giants at Washington (-3.5): New York picked up its first win last week, but they’ll be hard-pressed to match it against a division rival. Washington leads the league in opposing yards per carry at just 2.8 (tied with Detroit, Seattle and the Jets). They also lead the league in sack percentage, getting the opposing QB on the ground on almost 10% of all dropbacks. That absurd figure cannot last, but it’s not going to decline much this week. The Giants offensive line played better against Houston, but that was because they could run the ball with a great outing from Rashad Jennings. He won’t find those holes this week. The Skins will miss cornerback DeAngelo Hall, who is lost to a torn Achilles. He has always had Eli Manning’s number. The Giants will capitalize on the thin secondary more than expected, but it won’t be enough.

Washington 28, Giants 24 

Sunday Games

- Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+0.5): Red alert! Red Alert! The Bears are the better team, even with their decimated secondary. The Bears are playing at home, marking the Packers’ second roadie in a row. The Bears have a fantastic passing offense with Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett, while the Packers own offense is sputtering behind a slumping Aaron Rodgers and an ineffective Eddie Lacy. I suspect the Green Bay offense will get back on the track here; they’ve had just one touchdown in their last 19 drives. But they’re not outscoring Chicago unless Jay Cutler has a really bad day. As a warning, he’s capable of a clunker so don’t get too overconfident. Getting a half point instead of giving points at home is very intriguing. I’ll put $500 on it.

Bears 30, Packers 24

- Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5): The Steve Smith Sr. bowl is sure to be intense, even if it’s all fabricated by the aging wideout’s braggadocio. Smith has been very good for Baltimore after Carolina decided they didn’t have a need for him anymore. Why did Carolina let him go? They needed more cash to pay Greg Hardy. Yeah, him. Do whatever you can to get Smith in your fantasy lineup this week, as he’s apt to have the highest wide receiver point total recorded this week. The Ravens ride him to a win, though the Panthers’ decimated running back corps is just as big of a factor.

Ravens 20, Panthers 17

- Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-2.5): Perhaps the two most surprising 2-1 teams face off at Reliant Stadium. Interestingly, both were also the two most surprising 2-0 teams before humbling losses last week. I think the Bills match up well with their strong offensive line and a cadre of offensive weapons. Neither quarterback earns even a shred of trust, though I do like the angle of Ryan Fitzpatrick going up against his former team. That gets blunted by the fact they paid him about sextuple his open market value to be a below-average starter. Maybe he’s grateful to them and throws a pick six or two. I’m just not sold E.J. Manuel is above doing the same. Ah, what the heck…

Bills 24, Texans 21

- Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-12.5): This is far and away the most common Survivor Fantasy game pick. Not just for the week, but rather the entire season. As of 4:42 PM Wed., more than 53% of all people picking at FOX and 51% of those at ESPN are using the Chargers as their selection to win.

It makes perfect sense. The Chargers are 2-1, the loss being a 1-point loss at undefeated Arizona in the opener. The Jaguars are winless and completely lifeless; from halftime of Week 1 to halftime of Week 3 they were outscored 105-10. Now they’re starting rookie QB Blake Bortles, who impressed in the preseason…playing against backups and practice squad filler. He’ll invigorate the offense to some extent, but it won’t be nearly enough to knock off the well-oiled machine that is the Chargers. They’re my survivor pick too.

Chargers 37, Jaguars 24

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5): How bad are the winless Buccaneers?

Apparently it was Raiders castoff tryout day in Buccaneers land…just in case you weren’t sure how bad they really were.

— Michael Schottey (@Schottey) September 22, 2014

The Raiders are winless too, yet players they let go are coveted by Tampa Bay. They are that bad. The Steelers are badly wounded on defense, enough to bring James Harrison out of retirement. The Bucs don’t have the ability to make them pay.

Steelers 32, Buccaneers 21

- Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-7.5): The Colts righted the ship with a blowout win over the Jaguars, and they get to go home to face a Titans team which could be without starting QB Jake Locker (wrist in his throwing hand). Could it be Clipboard Jesus time? That’s the affectionate nickname bestowed upon Tennessee backup Charlie Whitehurst, who is a dead ringer for the traditional oil painting of Jesus hanging in your church. Whitehurst has earned over $19M in his 9 years in the league, throwing a total of 155 passes in that time. Now that’s an enchanted life, going thru life looking like Jesus and earning millions to do almost no work. The Titans will need divine intervention to pull this one off, and the game will prove Whitehurst is not in fact the son of God. I’ll put $1000 on it.

Colts 34, Titans 14

- Detroit Lions at New York Jets (+1.5): The two best defenses not named Seattle face off in New York. My Lions have the advantage at QB, WR, and TE, while the defenses largely cancel one another out with both teams ravaged by injuries in the secondary. If the Jets cannot run the ball, they cannot beat Detroit. The Lions have the best run defense in the league, and they do it thanks to the front four; they don’t need to bring extra help into the box, which means the play action game isn’t effective. If it comes down to a kicking battle the Jets win, but methinks the Lions score enough to avoid that fate.

Lions 27, Jets 17

- Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (+4): Before you write off the Vikings, consider this figure courtesy Chris Burke of Sports Illustrated:

Worth mentioning again ... Matt Ryan career at home: 37-10, 76 TDs, 29 INTs Matt Ryan career away: 24-25, 81 TDs, 51 INTs

— Chris Burke (@ChrisBurke_SI) September 19, 2014

This will be rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater’s first career start, coming at home and providing the denizens legit hope for the future. I’m buying into Teddy giving the team a lift, with help from an increased use of dynamic wideout Cordarrelle Patterson. The opportunistic Falcons secondary is a real challenge, however. Falcons win but the Vikings keep it close enough to cover.

Falcons 26, Vikings 24

- Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5): For the Dickensian crowd, this game features a tale of two quarterbacks. Colin Kaepernick dominates early in games for San Francisco, while Philly’s Nick Foles is at his best late. Have a look at the splits from the first and fourth quarters for both:

Foles

Kaepernick

The Niners have yet to score a touchdown in the second half of any game this year, notching just 3 points in three games. That’s a bad recipe against the best second-half team in the league. San Francisco’s self-destructive tendencies, and the way they allow bad calls by the officials to get into their heads, do not help. San Francisco’s weak pass rush eases the concerns with Philly’s injury-ravaged offensive line. Water will start to find its level with the above splits, but the waves won’t be dramatic enough to shift the tide of this game.

Eagles 30, 49ers 28

- Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders (+4.5): The Raiders played the Patriots close last week, showing real defensive aptitude. Meanwhile, Miami coach Joe Philbin is fabricating a QB controversy by refusing to say Ryan Tannehill is his man going forward. Oakland coach Dennis Allen is probably playing for his job here, because if the Raiders hit their bye week at 0-4 he earns the final line of my all-time favorite movie, Point Break: “he’s not coming back”. Fade to Ratt’s quietly intense “Nobody Rides for Free” as the credits roll. Well, I guess I know how I’m spending the next two hours…$500 on the Raiders, whom I strongly believe win outright.

Raiders 24, Dolphins 15

- New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5): I used to live in Houston, which is an interesting city in terms of NFL loyalty. Because the Texans are pretty new and weren’t any good until very recent times, most folks still held firm to their old allegiances. Much of the population remained ardent Cowboys fans, with Dallas just four hours up I-45. Yet a major influx of Hurricane Katrina refugees stocked the metro area with a healthy population of Saints fans. Even though the majority are now Texans fans, many of those still hold their NFC allegiances firmly.

As for the game, I really like the matchup of Dez Bryant against the Saints’ porous secondary, which has performed worse than Dallas’ oft-slammed bunch. The Cowboys defense could get a lift with pass rusher Anthony Spencer returning, too. Then again, I can’t see the Dallas D holding back Drew Brees, not with the (deserved) demotion of CB Morris Caliborne and the lack of cover skills of pretty much everyone else on the team. This could be a shootout, and always side with the better QB in those situations.

Saints 37, Cowboys 35

Monday Night

- New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5): My professional diagnosis of what ails New England? Anemic talent in the passing game thanks to years of poor drafting and neglect, and Tom Brady is no longer Iron Man enough to lift the otherwise middling cast. Kansas City is a good place to get healthy, however. I expect a low-scoring slugfest, and I like New England’s lines more than I like Kansas City’s. The 4.5 points the Chiefs are getting sure are tempting. I’ll take it for $250.

Patriots 20, Chiefs 17

Betting Recap:

Indianapolis -7.5 for $1000

Oakland +4.5 for $500

Chicago +0.5 for $500

Kansas City +4.5 for $250