It’s been far too long since we’ve seen meaningful NFL football. The last seven months have dragged on like one of those overwrought superhero movies, impossible to tolerate yet inescapable from the national psyche.

For those new to this weekly feature, welcome! I pick each game straight up. Last season I did quite well, going 170-86 while counting the tie as a loss.

There is also a gambling component carrying over from last year. I started the 2013 with 10,000 som, the currency of Uzbekistan (roughly $4.30 in USD). Each week I wagered some money on up to 5 games. Some weeks I cleaned up, others I took a bath. In the end, going big on the New York Jets in the final weekend pushed me into the black for the season, as I wound up with 10,750 som.

This year I’m changing currencies and sticking with good old fashioned American cash. My mythical bank account once again starts at $10,000 but I’m raising the stakes a bit. I must choose one game each week where I wager at least $1,000.

I’m also resurrecting the Survivor Fantasy Game pick of the week. Even after my pick gets eliminated, I’ll still provide one I believe is the biggest lock of the straight-up picks.

Because this is the first week, the commentary here is brief. Week 1 is almost always the hardest week to forecast with a high degree of accuracy.

Thursday Game

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks--The first game of the season is a good one, pitting the defending champion Seahawks against Aaron Rodgers and the vaunted Packers offense. Even though the game is in Seattle, I think the Packers have a real shot to surprise here. Seattle’s offense is the issue that concerns me; starting overdrafted rookie Justin Britt at tackle against Clay Matthews could be a real problem for Russell Wilson & Co. I also like that playmakers Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson can slip a tackle from the strong Seattle secondary and take it to the raucous house. I expect a close one, closer than the 5.5-point line.

Seahawks 23, Packers 21

Sunday Games

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens--The winner of this divisional clash could very well win the AFC North thanks to the Week 1 victory. That’s how important this game is, so expect a great deal of intensity and tension. Those qualities aptly describe new Ravens WR Steve Smith, who is the X-factor addition to Baltimore that makes them match up better against the defending division champs. They need him because I can’t see them running the ball well at all against the strong Bengals front. Baltimore was dead last in YPC last year at 3.1, and they might not get half that here without Ray Rice. The QB who makes fewer mistakes, and that includes missed 3^rd down throws and holding the ball too long, will prevail. I think Andy Dalton is better than Joe Flacco, but not on this day.

Ravens 20, Bengals 17

Washington Redskins at Houston Texans--This game deserves more of your attention than it’s probably going to get. Washington’s offense has a chance to be very good, adding Desean Jackson and getting a healthy RG3. Houston’s defense has a chance to be very good, adding Jadeveon Clowney to the awesome J.J. Watt and a healthy Brian Cushing. The Ethnic Slurs have a great chance to pull off the mild road upset (HOU -2.5) because I think their defense will handle Ryan Fitzpatrick. Still, Washington doesn’t have an answer for Arian Foster, and the Texans defense continually bested new Washington coach Jay Gruden’s offense when he ran the Bengals O. Tough call here.

Texans 28, Slurs 24

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears--Time to use the Bears in Survivor Fantasy Football. Chicago’s defense is still shaky on the back end, but their ballhawking corners are a nightmare for Bills QB E.J. Manuel. He’ll throw at least two INTs as he stares down his target and doesn’t recognize coverage shifts. Buffalo’s D will keep them within striking distance but they’ll have to generate points to pull off the road shocker.

Bears 23, Bills 13

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers--Cleveland does not win in Pittsburgh, having one win in Heinz Field ever. Cleveland does not win season openers, their last 1-0 record coming in 2004. It’s hard to not recall the infamous 2007 opener, when a completely overwhelmed Charlie Frye freaked out as Browns QB in a 34-7 loss. Brian Hoyer is better than Charlie Frye…barely. This Steelers team isn’t great, but they’re good enough to annihilate the 5.5-point line. I’ll bet $1500 on it.

Steelers 24, Browns 10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles--Upset alert? Maybe. Then again, maybe not. The Jaguars will be better, but opening on the road against Philly’s diverse, aggressive style on both sides of the ball is a tall order. The Eagles offensive line can dominate here, which means it’s a great week to own Lesean McCoy in your fantasy league. This game features the only double-digit spread (PHI -11.5), so if you’re a believer in using that team as your Survivor pick, you should feel safe in burning the Eagles here.

Eagles 30, Jaguars 17

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams--I really like the Vikings to crush the Rams except for one key factor: Robert Quinn vs. Matt Kalil. The Rams outstanding edge rusher is going to have a field day against the Vikings’ overrated left tackle, who proved once again in the preseason he has no answer for guys that can use either speed or power. Will it be enough? Probably not, as the Rams weakness at safety is a real problem against a big-play offense with Adrian Peterson, Cordarrelle Patterson and underrated TE Kyle Rudolph. I love the Vikings as 6.5-point dogs. I’m limiting myself to wagering just $500 only because I fear my overconfidence.

Vikings 23, Rams 17

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins--Here’s a little glimpse into the creative process. I thought I had this column all wrapped up, so I launched into my celebratory dairy reward (in this case, Gouda cheese and Triscuits making a perfect mid-morning snack) with a smug sense of accomplishment. Then I proofed the piece and counted just 15 games. Uh oh. After quickly rushing my victory cheese back into the kitchen, I sat down in my writing chair and quickly thought about this AFC East game. What stands out is that while New England almost always beats Miami (they’ve won 7 of 8), they almost never cover on division road games. Since they’re just 3.5-point favorites, it portends well for the Dolphins to keep the game very close. Now where did that cheese go…?

Patriots 19, Dolphins 16

Oakland Raiders at New York Jets--Derek Carr, meet Rex Ryan. It figures to be a long day for Oakland’s rookie QB, much of it spent on his back. Ryan’s Jets are 7-1 against rookie QBs, allowing less than 50% completions overall and averaging over 4 sacks per contest. The New York corners are almost comically weak, but the Raiders just don’t have the weapons to exploit them. The +/- on this game is 40, the lowest total (with CAR/TB) of the week. I still like the under. I think Sebastian Janikowski’s ailing quad could cost the Raiders here.

Jets 16, Raiders 13

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons--I was surprised to see the Falcons favored by 1.5 here. New Orleans has won six of the last seven meetings, and their loaded offense will challenge an Atlanta defense that doesn’t have much pass rush or depth. The Falcons will be better than last year’s miserable disappointment, but I’m not ready to expect them to knock of my NFC champion pick, even at home. If you must bet, take the over at +/- 51.

Saints 33, Falcons 28

Tennessee at Kansas City--For no other reason than a strong gut feel, I like the Titans here. I can’t really explain it any other way than that.

Titans 24, Chiefs 21

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers--A critical NFC South matchup right off the bat, as these two teams figure to be battling for playoff life all season. The winner here picks up a valuable division win. The Panthers blew out Tampa Bay twice last year, but they don’t return a single WR that caught a pass in either game. Cam Newton’s sore ribs could be more of a factor, especially if Gerald McCoy can plant him into the turf early on. There could be a lot of sacks here, as both defensive lines hold advantages over the opposing OL.

Buccaneers 17, Panthers 15

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys--The 49ers might not miss Aldon Smith and Navorro Bowman, their two best defensive players, any more than they will against Dallas’ explosive offense. Yeah they’ve still got Patrick Willis, but he can only do so much. San Francisco should (should!) have a lot of success pounding Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde at the toothless Dallas defense, but I’m not sure Colin Kaepernick will make enough great throws to a receiving corps I still don’t trust to put up more points than what Dallas throws on the scoreboard. I like the home underdog (DAL +4.5) and I’ll put $500 on them.

Dallas 33, San Francisco 31

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos--Tough opener for Andrew Luck, having to face a fully stocked Denver defense in the Mile High city. I do think the Colts will find success in attacking with tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, and getting Reggie Wayne back certainly helps the cause. It’s hard to match Peyton Manning throwing to Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and impressive-looking rookie Cody Latimer if you can’t run the ball, and these Colts need to prove they can run before I believe it. Luck will have to pull yet another rabbit out of his hat to win this one. Maybe it’s hiding in his hideous neck beard…

Broncos 34, Colts 24

Monday Night

New York Giants at Detroit Lions--The Lions host the Monday Night Football opener for the first time since 1971, and they hold a huge matchup advantage in the defensive front seven against New York’s remade offensive line and a skittish, out of sync Eli Manning. Joseph Fauria waves “bye bye bye” as Glover Quin runs back a Manning interception forced by a Jason Jones pressure, sweet payback for Will Hill’s pick-six in last year’s Week 16 contest that eliminated Detroit from the playoffs. New York’s defense should be game, but they can’t hold down Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate, Reggie Bush and Joique Bell forever. If the Lions don’t win this one, it’s going to be a long season in Motown. I’ll wager $500 on Detroit -4.5.

Lions 27, Giants 13

San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals--I’d like to thank the NFL for this second Monday night treat. It will make perfect background noise as I wrap up my coverage of the Lions game, better than watching Family Guy reruns for the 42^nd time or a baseball game entering its fourth hour and seventh pitching change. I have both these teams making the playoffs, and Arizona’s march kicks off with a victory. I expect versatile RB Andre Ellington to have a big game.

Cardinals 30, Chargers 28

Wagering summary:

DAL +4.5 for $500

DET -4.5 for $500

MIN +6.5 for $500

PIT -5.5 for $1500