RealGM Analysis
Arizona Cardinals:
2013 RECORD: 10-6
2012 RECORD: 5-11
2011 RECORD: 8-8
2010 RECORD: 5-11
Team Overview: Arizona seemed to be overachieving at 3-4, but that was nothing compared to going 7-1 in games 8-15 just before a tough overtime loss vs. San Francisco in the finale. Bruce Arians was coach of the year in ’12 with Indy under trying circumstances. He nearly repeated that honor despite having to face Seattle and San Francisco four times. Arizona won 10 times despite a below par offensive line, a QB who threw 22 interceptions and some pretty severe changes to the defensive secondary. There is no question about these Cardinals being excited about ’14 and the future but this Division is brutal and Arizona faces many challenges moving forward.
Key Stats: Arizona allowed 20.25 points per game, 7th in the NFL. The run O is still below standard at 3.6-97. Having a veteran presence at QB did help sacks allowed move from 57 to 41, but overall the line has to improve as Palmer rushed throws as evidenced by his 22 interceptions. Arizona has now allowed 201 sacks the past four seasons. The run D improved from a below average 4.3-137 to 3.7-84.5. These numbers were 2nd and 1st, respectively. Arizona went from a -49 1st downs by rushing ratio up to +16. Teams ran for just five TD’s vs. the stout front line. Defensive sacks improved from 38 to 47, tied for 6th in the NFL. Spread-wise, Arizona was just 15-32 as a favorite of >3 points before going 3-0 in the role in ’13.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Rashard Mendenhall retired and Jonathan Dwyer takes his place in the RB rotation. Is that enough? Ted Ginn tries to replace productive Andre Roberts. OT Veldheer is a great addition and will start immediately. LB Dansby was solid in ’13 but got a great offer elsewhere and he’s gone. Antonio Cromartie might make a good secondary even better. Perhaps Danny Hauptman will challenge Jay Feely at PK.
2014 Draft: Arizona liked the hard hitting Bucannon and understood that they could add a pick by moving down, as his value was in the 35-40 range. TE Niklas is like every other TE the Cards have had in the past 20 years, reliable, and not even close to all-pro status. The picks in the 3rd round at least hit some needs, although Martin looks rotational and Brown just a 3rd option. Arizona’s 7th round pick was sent to Oakland as final payment for QB Palmer. Yes, QB was a bolded need, but I said good, young QB. Logan Thomas could become a TE. He can’t be a QB in the NFL. I like the pick of undrafted free agent (UFA) OG Steen in a clear area of need.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Carson Palmer was a massive upgrade and he is accurate with a quick release.
RB: Ellington will have an expanded role in the offense. The unit isn’t bad, but needs to OL to open run holes.
WR: Fitzgerald and Floyd are are great one-two punches. Arians hopes John Brown is another TY Hilton or Antonio Brown. Ted Ginn will battle Brown for the #3 spot.
TE: Much deeper now with Niklas and John Carlson added to the mix.
OL: Palmer’s quick release made them look better than they really are, but the left side has great potential with Veldheer and Cooper, who missed his rookie year due to injury.
DL: They will miss Dockett who is now on IR. NT Ta’amu was cleared to play and along with rookie DE Martin will try and pick up the slack.
LB: With Washington suspended all year and Dansby gone, it could be up to 2nd year LB Kevin Minter to up his game. He has promise, but injury issues in August will stunt his growth.
CB: Peterson is the star, with Cromartie and Powers vying for the 2nd slot.
Safety: Rookie Bucannon may start immediately. How ready will injured 2nd year safety Mathieu be in September?
Special Teams: Could rookie John Brown take the pressure of Peterson by returning punts?
Coaching: Bruce Arians has been nothing short of exceptional! I don’t know much about OC Goodwin but the offense improved in ’13. Todd Bowles kept the defense playing at a very high level.
Team Keys: Rush yards per game. It’s all about the offensive line, as Arizona has averaged just 90 yards per game the past four seasons (96 in ’13). Will defensive sacks be an issue without Dockett and Washington, plus having the elevated schedule? Can Carson Palmer reduce interceptions in his second full year with the Cardinals?
Did the preseason mean anything? The Cardinals remain unable to run the ball much at 2.9 per carry. I expect Andre Ellington to carry the load and he was the only back to show some punch. QB Palmer hit just 50% but perhaps that is not a telling stat for the veteran. This remains a deep WR group, with rated rookie John Brown turning some heads. The defense was not as stout as last August which may have been expected given the injuries. Still, the schedule will be tougher in ’14. Arizona had just four sacks in August and I have them markedly down from the 47 they attained in ’13. Rookie safety Bucannon is more than ready. Kevin Minter takes over at LB. Rookie DL Martin showed well. The new kicker was 7-7. Ted Ginn will return kicks.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Arizona opens on a Monday night hosting San Diego in an excellent game but after that they will play all Sunday games until a 12/11 Thursday game at STL. The host has had success 9/14 at the NYG but splitting games 1-2 is critical in order to send a message to the rest of the NFC that 10-6 was not a fluke. The 9/21 games hosting Divisional rival SF is a tossup but tiebreakers will depend on Divisional success. Arizona’s goal should be at least 4-3 after playing Washington (big schedule edge), Oakland and a rested Eagle team. In November they host a Rams team playing its 3rd consecutive road game and then try for six in a row hosting Detroit. The underdog has been good when facing Atlanta but the host Falcons will have revenge and have won more often than not at home. Games 14-16 are all vs. Divisional rivals. Arizona must overcome a lack of Thursday success (at STL) but gets 10 days before hosting Seattle. The finale is at SF, and they have had trouble in the bay area.
Bottom Line: This coaching staff has been near elite but ’14 looks tough. They face an elevated schedule without DL Dockett, LB Washington and a banged up DB Mathieu. I don’t see them putting as much pressure on opposing defenses and I see slight slippage in their defensive interceptions and run D projections. Will finishing with 13 straight games after the bye week cause fatigue? I’ll call for a “soft” 8-8 and no playoffs in ’14.
Key Game: 9/21 hosting SF. If Arizona is to make the playoffs they must build up equity in Divisional games. This one is huge. Handicapping Tip: Arizona will be a play on team if installed as an underdog 12/7 hosting KC.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 27.5
St. Louis Rams:
2013 RECORD: 7-9
2012 RECORD: 7-8-1
2011 RECORD: 2-14
2010 RECORD: 7-9
Team Overview: STL just finished year #2 of Jeff Fisher’s rebuilding project. It’s clear they lack the talent and team depth of Division rivals SF and Seattle but much of what they are trying to do is geared for long and not short term success. QB Bradford has not proven to be a top ten QB thus far but at the time of his injury he was over 60% with a 14-4 ratio. QB Clemons had a half-dozen shots inside the five yard line with a chance to beat Seattle, shocked Indy 38-8, doubled up on the Bears 42-21 and later upset the Saints 27-16. They did it with a 5th round rookie RB and a defense that became the 1st team in recent memory to record two consecutive seasons of over 50 sacks. The Rams had three of the top 41 picks in the deep ’14 draft and selected potential impact players at a couple of different positions. I like the direction this is going, however it is now time to fix a very broken pass D. The Rams will plateau quickly without the ability to put pressure on opposing WR’s and TE’s. Whether by scheme and/or by talent, THIS is the must fix area for the young Rams.
Key Stats: Bradford can be a playoff type QB but he needs to stay on the field. Back-up QB Clemons was not the answer. The team did not have a strong number of 1st downs by passing. As a result, the 3rd down conversion rate was low at 34%. The total yards offensively was ranked 30th. The sack ratio of 53-36 was almost identical to ’12. The run D improved markedly with the 3.7 per attempt allowed tied for 2nd and the 103 yards allowed per game 9th. That DL is special but plenty of work needs to be done in pass coverage. Even with the 105 sacks these past two years the Rams have allowed 66.2% and last year allowed 68.1% to opposing QB’s. The Rams were lucky that opposing kickers were just 18-26. Once again there was improvement in special team play as evidenced by their #1 rated punt return D (2.6 per return). STL by itself has no long term spread situations Jeff Fisher’s rookie Ram team was 11-3 as a dog, continuing his longstanding dog tendencies. In ’13 that record fell off (4-7).
Free Agency and Staff Notes: STL brought back Saffold after he supposedly failed his physical in Oakland. Two other OL departed but were replaceable. Once upon a time Fisher drafted WR Kenny Britt in 1st round. They reunite. Britt is young enough to be an asset to this offense if he improves his on and off-field work habits. CB Finnegan did not play as well as expected and he’s gone. Kellen Clemons “managed” the game with Bradford on IR. He’s gone, but the Rams needed something more here anyway. I remarked previously that “Hiring former Lion DB coach Tim Walton is rather curious”! Bounty-Gate ringleader Gregg Williams is an upgrade as the new Defensive Coordinator. His defenses tend to play more press coverage, and that is much needed here with the Rams.
2014 Draft: By virtue of Washington’s poor ’13 record the final payment from the Redskins RG III trade became the 2nd overall pick in this draft. OT Robinson will open run holes immediately, perhaps as a rookie OG. He gets the luxury of blocking for former Auburn teammate Mason, a nice addition in the 3rd round. DT Donald gives the Rams four #1 draft choices along the DL, with all of them top 14 picks! CB Joyner is short but he’s a playmaker who perhaps could do some safety work. Jeff Fisher always stockpiled picks in Tennessee. The only area of need not addressed was OLB. Late round picks bogged down as the two OL were not rated, and QB Gilbert is a massive project. DE Sam hopes to become a solid situational pass rusher but the Rams appear overstocked at his specialty. NOTE: The Rams added * DE Westbrooks and * CB Marcus Roberson after the draft. Westbrooks has much the same skill set as Sam, with 49 tackles for losses the past two seasons at a smaller college. His issue is freelancing too much. Roberson is slow and weak, with 56 tackles in 30 games. He’s got a fearless mentality and some nice anticipation but underachieved on the field and was a mess off the field as well.
Roster Analysis:
QB: I write this shortly after Bradford’s ’14 season is over. Shaun Hill is next man up!
RB: Zac Stacy had a great rookie season. Mason is the change of pace back. UFA Trey Watts (Tulsa) has a chance to stick.
WR: They lack a true #1 target but Givens, Pettis, Austin, Britt, Bailey and maybe even Quick are all solid WR’s.
TE: Kendricks (34) is good and bringing in ex-Titan and Fisher protégée Cook (51) was a solid move.
OL: Run blocking will clearly improve with Robinson and a healthy Jake Long. OC and RT are the weaker links. The Rams attempted to trade up for OL Martin even after getting Greg Robinson. That tells me the team still sees OL as unsettled.
DL: The front four is elite and they drafted Donald. QB’s hate interior pressure and rookie DL Donald provides that. Sam and Westbrooks would provide additional sack power if they find a place on this loaded DL.
LB: MLB Laurinatis is a star, and LB Ogletree led the team with 117 tackles as a rookie. The issue is the other OLB spot, which the Rams again ignored on draft day. Dunbar and converted safety Armstrong are the only options.
CB: The pass D% needs fixing. CB Finnegan was not the answer. 3rd year players Jenkins and Johnson start. Rookie Joyner figures to get in some action as well due to his solid instincts.
Safety: Formerly a well-below average group, and currently not much better. The starters are McLeod and 2nd year player TJ McDonald. The learning curve is steep. Only the * rated rookies listed above are behind them.
Special Teams: Austin had an average rookie season but is capable of far better. The PK is great. Coverage units got better!
Coaching: Fisher knows how to build a team. His pass D’s are not always strong and he had no DC in ’12 and a poor DC in ’13. The new DC is Gregg Williams and that is an upgrade.
Team Keys: Can Gregg Williams fix the pass D%? Obviously QB play is now a must watch area. The OL must stay healthy and improve its pass protection. How effective will this team be in the red zone? Winning that first game is going to be huge for confidence reasons.
Did the preseason mean anything? The Rams will certainly try to be a ball control team in ’14 with a sub-standard QB and a leaky pass D. Zac Stacy ran just 2.6 per carry in August. The OL is better than that but must bond together soon. Shaun Hill was 8-17 with 3 sacks taken. The more accurate, but raw Austin Davis was 62%, but 9 sacks taken. I am clearly bumping the sacks allowed figure up in ’14! There is no true #1 WR but counting TE, nine solid targets to throw to. The pass D% shows no signs of getting better (64%). Injuries in the secondary are contributing but I would have liked to see new DC Gregg Williams make strides in preseason. The DL is great and as I suspected, UFA Westbrooks outplayed Sam to make the 53 man roster.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Suddenly, STL is facing confidence issues. Jeff Fisher has again upgraded the roster (OL, secondary depth, new defensive coordinator) but they are back to square one at QB. The ’13 record of opponents faced this year is a whopping 144.5-115.5 in ’13 (one tie). Games 1-3 are hosting Minny, at Tampa and home to Dallas. Going 2-1 or better now is essential as they still have 10 games left vs. the NFC West and AFC West! Their bye week is next, followed by a brutal eight game stretch where they play seven playoff teams from a year ago. The only exception is a road game at 10-6 Arizona! Overall they play nine of 16 games vs. teams who won 10 or more games in ’13. Included in this stretch is a three-game road trip at KC, San Fran and Arizona. Here are some notes for these games. 10/19 vs. Seattle: The Rams had eight shots inside the five yard line to pull off a MNF upset a year ago. 10/26 at KC: The Rams seem ill-equipped to handle a high % QB such as Alex Smith. 11/9 at Arizona: This is the 3rd straight road game and fatigue could set in. 11/16 hosting Denver: They get Denver in their 3rd of three straight road games. 11/23 at SD: Jeff Fisher has been exceptional at “covering” road games as a dog but to make noise in the playoff chase he must grab wins in these type of games. Games 12-15 are home to Oakland, at Washington, and home to Arizona and the NYG. This has to be a 3-1 result at the very least. The (unfair) closing game is at Seattle for the 3rd consecutive year.
Bottom Line: One has to be concerned about how this team will perform in the red zone. Jeff Fisher is clearly an above average coach but without evidence that their 32nd and last % pass D is improving the win total cannot be bumped up. This is a passing league and 60% is the magic number! Winning more than seven games would be an excellent accomplishment right now. This DL is the NFL’s best but QB play and pass D will hold them down.
Key Game: 10/13 hosting SF. Like with Arizona, winning in Division is going to be huge if they are to have any chance at a playoff spot. SF will just have played in an emotional game vs. Alex Smith and KC and this MNF game puts them back in prime time. A loss here, followed by a short week of practice would not be a good thing, but a win could give them confidence hosting Seattle, the team they “should have” defeated a year ago at home. Handicapping Tip: Jeff Fisher knows how to cover the spread as a road dog. Still, if QB play is substandard and the pass D% stays high, the overall spread record will be suspect.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 22.5
San Francisco 49ers:
2013 RECORD: 12-4
2012 RECORD: 11-4-1
2011 RECORD: 13-3
2010 RECORD: 6-10
Team Overview: Jim Harbaugh is intense but there’s no question he can coach. San Francisco was a muffed punt (’11 title game) and a late interception (’13 title game) from being a three time Super Bowl participant. San Francisco slightly ran out of gas vs. Seattle as they were on the road for the 5th time in a six week period. San Francisco is fundamentally sound, but not elite in all areas. They have great depth but as of this writing their QB is good but not elite, a deep threat WR has not emerged, there is no true NT, and the secondary is sound as a whole but individually they are not much better than average. San Francisco misses often on draft day but unlike many other teams they can afford to take risks, AND, their method of stockpiling picks gives them more chances to overcome draft reaches. These 49ers are built for the long run but to make things easier they must win a very tough NFC West to avoid multiple road playoff games. In this case, it’s the offense that must diversify. Can Kapernick take that next step?
Key Stats: Kaepernick was under 59% in ’13 but had a nice 21-8 ratio. San Francisco wisely let him mostly stay in the pocket until the crunch games late in the year and in the playoffs. Gore and Kaepernick led the way to a 4.4-137.6 run attack, figures actually down from 5.1-155.7 in ’12. The 49ers actually had only two more 1st downs than their opponents despite their solid defense. All defensive #’s were decent, with only defensive sacks (38) running a bit below NFL averages. They allowed 272 points, 3rd in the NFL. They held opponents to 34% on 3rd down conversions. Both total D and pass TD’s allowed were 5th in the NFL. The kick return D solidly improved (tie 3rd). Punter Andy Lee remains elite. Spread-wise, SF’s only trend is 34-11 as a MNF favorite.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Blaine Gabbert was rushed into action as a rookie with the Jags. The trade to get him is a no-risk proposition. QB McCoy was cut to make room for him. The same is true for Jonathan Martin, who adds OL depth but still must get more physical. WR Lloyd was out of the NFL by choice in ’13. He has a shot at the #2 spot if the year off is not a detriment. San Francisco lost CB’s Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown and safety Donte Whitner. CB Chris Cook is a decent acquisition even if he is not a true #1 CB. Safety Bethea is at least equal to Whitner but a very different player. CB Tarell Brown adds depth.
2014 DRAFT: Like last year, the 49ers received a 2nd round pick (#56) from KC in the trade of QB Alex Smith. San Francisco is an active trader on draft day, as evidenced by moving from 56 to 63 and 10 minutes later moving up from 63 to 57! Ward has some CB traits but SF seems likely to use him at safety. Did SF covet Fuller at 14 but find the trade value poor? RB Hyde is the perfect replacement once Gore slows down. LB Borland could help ease the pain of losing Bowman to a major injury in the NFC Title game. I like savvy WR Ellington but CB Desir was on the board at 106! SF loaded up at WR, getting productive Stevie Johnson from Buffalo for a 4th round pick. SF did not forget about CB, but unfortunately selected two NR players at 170 and 180. I will say that there were fewer wasted picks than usual. NOTE: SF added two-down and 15th rated LB Skov after the draft. Skov is super smart run stopper is also super slow!
Roster Analysis:
QB:.Kaepernick is the guy, but there will be some periods where he will still show his relative youth. He overthrows some balls.
RB: Gore, Hunter, and rookie Hyde would have made this a strong unit, but Hunter is on IR. Harbaugh likes to power run the ball. Lattimore redshirted in ’13. It would help if he saw some action in ’14.
WR: Better now. Crabtree, Boldin and Stevie Johnson can be dangerous. Patton, Lloyd and Ellington all have talent. This is by far the deepest this unit has been in years and there can be no excuses for a lack of pass production in ’14.
TE: Davis is a stretch the field TE with outstanding athletic ability. TE McDonald was a bit of an upgrade as the backup.
OL: This unit knows how to power run block. RG Boone is good, but not great. OC is the only “weak” spot. Rookie Martin will compete with Daniel Kilgore but either way I don’t think they will improve pass protection from this particular spot in ’14.
DL: Last year Dorsey replaced injured Ian Williams at NT. This year the roles are reversed. The DE’s are good but not elite. DE Tank Carradine was ‘redshirted” in ’13 and could be in the mix. I do wish they had drafted a pure NT these past few years.
LB: Elite, but not in ’14! Bowman is an all-pro who will miss at least half the year. Aldon Smith has been suspended for nine games. Rookies Borland and Lynch, plus average year two LB Lemonier provide depth, but they are raw.
CB: Carlos Rogers and journeyman Brown are gone. Culliver might be suspended. Jimmie Ward is more of a safety or nickel CB but he will push for playing time with free agent Chris Cook opposite relatively average Tramaine Brock. Better was needed.
Safety: Whitner left, but Bethea is an upgrade. Eric Reid is already solid. The back-ups are average.
Special Teams: Phil Dawson and Andy Lee are great! The return specialists have always been below par. Ellington may change that in a hurry!
Coaching: Harbaugh knows how to coach. He has some solid position coaches including a very good DC in Vic Fangio.
Team Keys: Can SF still wear down teams if they transition to more of a pass attack? They have the WR’s to make this work but change is sometimes difficult. I am worried that the +12 turnover ratio regresses, not only due to scheme changes but also due to injuries and suspensions in the front seven, coupled with radical personnel changes in the secondary. I do expect a spike up (finally) in the return game. SF is one of a few teams that must improve its play calling in crunch time near the goal line. A QB draw on any of three downs would have won them a Super Bowl. NT play is a worry.
Did the preseason mean anything? SF will use rookie Carolos Hyde (17-96-5.6) as the #2 back with Hunter on IR. There is no #3 RB so Gore will likely be used more than what SF might have wished for. Kaepernick still needs to elevate his pass %. That area could be added to the keys listed above. Rookie WR/return specialist Ellington had a great camp and could even be used ahead of the talented, but sparingly used Patton as well as former Buffalo WR Johnson. This is a deep group, but SF needs to prove it can change from a power run team. Will TE Vernon Davis continue to be underutilized (52 catches)? Tank Carradine is ready to go, adding stability to a DL who will be without Aldon Smith for quite some time. Rookie LB Borland (20 tackles) and rookie DB Jimmie Ward (13 tackles) will likely see plenty of playing time. The defense is young in spots but talented, although missing the instincts of Navarro Bowman will be a blow. The two concerns are DT Ian Williams and the August pass D%. With Dorsey injured, Williams must step up. He missed ’13 and had one preseason tackle. The pass D% was not good in August and now becomes a September watch area. The talent is there to continue to have sub 60% pass D’s.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: SF looks a bit more vulnerable in ’14. Are they transitioning to a pass attack? If so, they have the WR’s and TE’s to become dangerous but need Kapernick to take the next step in his accuracy. If not, they have Gore and Hyde to continue the power run attack Harbaugh covets but this talented receiving corps will be underutilized. The 49ers have three sets of back-to-back road games but have to like their schedule much more than what they went through a year ago. In ’13, the 49ers traveled about 33,000 miles in the ’13 regular season, including a trip to London. Then, they logged about another 9,000 miles in three road playoff games. SF played five of their final six games on the road. This year they will travel about 19,000 miles. Their only game on the East Coast is at the NYG. They start the year at Dallas and then host Chicago on Sunday Night. The Bears are winless (0-8) at San Francisco since 1985. Alex Smith has 10/5 circled on his calendar. He returns to the site where he completed his last 26 of 28 passes before suffering a concussion and never returning as the starting QB. The toughest challenge may be going to New Orleans on Nov. 9 and then to the NYG the following week. SF suffered a controversial loss at New Orleans a year ago and has not played well vs. the NYG. They host Seattle Thanksgiving night. That should be fun and physical. They travel to Seattle not long after that. Closing games are at home vs. SD and Arizona. Can Navarro Bowman be healthy enough to make December memorable?
Bottom Line: SF may not have looked perfect in August, but Dallas looked worse and the Bears have to fix their defense. They should be at least 4-3 after playing at Denver. This looks like a 10 win team, but watch how they use the WR’s and check to see if there is indeed any defensive slippage. I like Hyde and Ellington will upgrade the return unit, perhaps in a big way. I dislike the interior of the DL.
Key Games: 9/14 vs. Chicago. The Bears could expose any 49ers defensive deficiencies but this is at their (new) home and a win is a must if they are to challenge for the NFC West title and a potential bye week. The goal has to be to split November games at New Orleans and at the NYG. 0-2 could end their Divisional title chances and even put a playoff bid in jeopardy. Handicapping Tip: The NYG tend to play better vs. the good teams in the NFL. They look like the right side 11/16 vs. a SF team that will be at New Orleans the previous week and making their only east coast trip after that.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 29.5
Seattle Seahawks:
2013 RECORD: 13-3
2012 RECORD: 11-5
2011 RECORD: 7-9
2010 RECORD: 7-9
Team Overview: Any doubters left? Seattle is 31-14-3 their last 48 regular season games vs. the spread. They will be ignored no longer! The NFL is a copycat league and Pete Carroll and his GM spent most of the first few years designing a roster that could stand up defensively to what is essentially an offensively-minded league. Defensively, the secondary is tall and bothersome, while the LB’s are fast and disruptive. Offensively, the early move for RB Lynch was golden as he brought a unique toughness to the position. As for Russell Wilson, what Carroll got was a cerebral QB who is elusive and accurate, with the understanding of how to keep out of trouble (turnover trouble and injury trouble). They beat Denver by understanding that the PASS was the going to work vs. the Bronco scheme. Other times they beat teams asking Wilson to throw 20 times at the most. Keeping this team together beyond ’14 in the modern big salary era will be impossible but the blueprint for success in Seattle is sound and just might keep the Seahawks at or near the top of the NFL for a few more years.
Key Stats: Seattle, led by RB Lynch continues to run well, finishing 4th at nearly 137 per game (4.3). The run D was 4.5-103 in ’12 and improved to 3.9-101.5. Seattle easily validated its + point ratio. Seattle allowed just 231 points, #1 in the NFL. The turnover ratio was +20 thanks to a +19 interception ratio. They allowed just four rushing TD’s. The OL has forever lacked elite pass blockers so even with the elusive Wilson they allowed 44 sacks. That is about the only negative stat for a team that was #1 in defensive yards per pass attempt, #2 with 16 pass TD’s allowed, an easy #1 in total defense (273.6 per game) and #2 in punt return defense at 3.9 per return. Spread-wise, Seattle was favored all 16 regular season games. They remain 23-11 as a home dog off a home loss, and 38-22 as a home dog off any loss. Decent news is that Seattle is getting better as a home favorite. Spectacular news is their 6-2 spread road record. Only once since 1984 (’05) did Seattle even have a winning road record.
Free Agency and Staff Notes: Some of Seattle’s free agency losses include good players, but in the case of WR Rice and CB Browner, they were either hurt or on suspension. Seattle has moved on, although losing WR Golden Tate is a blow to one of their thinnest units. 40 game starter Paul McQuistan is gone, but he was hardly an elite talent. The DL took multiple hits with the losses of Red Bryant, Chris Clemons and Clinton McDonald. CB Thurmond is another example of losing a player who could not stay healthy. Back-up CB Philip Adams was added.
2014 Draft: Seattle was without its 3rd round pick in the final payment for WR Harvin. They also had an unusually low six picks prior to the draft, but they ended up with nine after trading down twice from pick 32. Seattle was “visibly deflated” when NE took Easley at 29. Rail-thin WR Richardson fits need area #1 but was overdrafted. OT Britt was also overdrafted, with other analysts believing he was a 6th round talent (4th for me). WR Norwood fits this team. DE Marsh carries rotational value. LB Pierre-Thomas fills the need for LB depth, but doesn’t seem like an impact selection. Seattle met the draft board needs, but as usual they do it their way, resulting in four players off my value radar. NOTE: The Seahawks added 9th rated DE Jeffcoat and 10th rated safety Dion Bailey after the draft. Jeffcoat has 4th round talent! He’s light but productive off the edge and should use this snub as motivation to make it with Pete Carroll. Bailey is assignment sound and can cover in the box.
Roster Analysis:
QB: Russell Wilson is wise beyond his years and joins Drew Brees as an effective undersized NFL QB.
RB: Lynch is a tough, bruising RB who is now likely to wear down. Seattle knows this and Turbin and Michael fill the void.
WR: Harvin would elevate this unit if healthy. Baldwin and Kearse provide back-up. Rookies Richardson and Norwood are next.
TE: Carroll likes to go TE by committee. Miller and Willson (thanks for the great Super Bowl) may be joined by one more TE.
OL: Good in run blocking but average at best when pass blocking. The concern is on the right side, with RG Sweezy, and RT Bowie or the raw rookie Britt.
DL: Mebane and Red Bryant keyed the run D which often slumped to bottom three levels with one of them missing. Now Byrant is gone, along with McDonald and Clemons. The starting four are still good, and former Viking Kevin Williams was recently added. Jesse Williams will miss his 2nd straight season, putting the former 1st rounder’s career in jeopardy before it even started.
LB: Bobby Wagner is great, while the often suspended Irvin only average. The unit as a whole is actually below par.
CB: Sherman is elite, Maxwell has come on strong and Lane adds depth. Surprisingly, there’s really no one else to discuss!
Safety: Thomas and Chancellor are the NFL’s best starting safeties. There is little to no backup talent.
Special Teams: PK Hauschka had a career year in ’13. The return game is adequate except for when Harvin is in play.
Coaching: Carroll is “different”, fun and a solid coach. DC Quinn didn’t miss a beat in his initial season. OC Bevell is solid.
Team Keys: Seattle played much better on the road in ’13 but it wasn’t easy. Will they regress? Watch the run D without Bryant. Seattle’s defense could be facing tougher offenses in ’14. Injuries would hurt in the back seven on defense. A healthy Percy Harvin elevates play at WR as well as in the return game.
Did the preseason mean anything? For the 3rd year in a row Seattle looks ready to start the season. Wilson is completely ready but still takes some sacks. I don’t expect this average pass blocking OL to effectively reduce sacks taken. All three RB’s are ready to go, meaning maybe this year Lynch won’t be overused. Any contribution from Percy Harvin makes the pass attack better. He’s looked good in August! I expect up and down performances from the rest of the WR’s but Kearse will still be a nice big play threat. The TE’s will take turns being relevant. The pass D% and run D could have been better, and I expect slight regression during the season in both areas. Seattle lost two starters along the DL with the run D more impacted than the sacks they generate. I would not use Earl Thomas in the return game despite his new found abilities.
Strategy and Bottom Line Analysis: Seattle becomes “the hunted” this season. The Seahawks had several close calls on the road in ’13 so it will be interesting to see how they handle success from a year ago. They played four home non-Thursday prime time games and only one road non-Thursday prime time games the past three seasons, but this year they will play road games, Thursday, Sunday and Monday nights and have just the NFL opener on 9/4 vs. Green Bay as a home prime time game. I write this on 8/31, just 100 hours away from Seattle hosting GB in a rematch of “ref-gate”, the game that essentially ended the referee impasse in ’12. The Super Bowl rematch with Denver takes place 9/21, at home. Hopefully for Denver’s sake Peyton Manning won’t be wearing gloves. Road games at STL and Carolina will be interesting as the Rams should have won last year with their back-up QB and Carolina lost a close one for the 2nd consecutive season. Games 12-15 represent the toughest stretch. They read as follows: at SF on Thanksgiving, at Philly and their fast-paced offense, home to SF and at pesky Arizona. In total, Seattle will play only two teams (Oakland at home and Wash on road) that didn’t win at least 7 games in ’13.
Bottom Line: I don’t trust Seattle to win consistently on the road, but this is a highly confident team that has a smart QB, a great run game and a healthy Percy Harvin. 5-2 would be a nice goal to strive for early on, and if they split games vs. SF the record would be 10-4 not counting games at Philly and Arizona. Pete Carroll loves his job! Maybe this is the type of team that can build upon recent success rather than take that dreaded step backward.
Key Games: 10/19 at STL and 10/26 at Carolina. I think a split keeps them as the favorite to repeat in the NFC West, but if they stumble early on, even including the opener hosting GB, then 0-2 makes this race a dogfight, especially considering games 12-15 are not going to be easy. Handicapping Tip: Be careful of inflate on the road. Carolina as a dog on 10/26 looks pretty inviting.
2014 TENTATIVE POWER # SET: 33