Last Week: 7-6-1, with the tie really monkeying up the system. 113-63-1 on the season.

Gambling Update: I wagered a total of 1250 Uzbek som over three games. Two of those (Jacksonville and San Francisco) were winning tickets, earning a total of 1500. That makes two winning weeks in a row. I now hold 7500 som in my greasy little mitts.

Thanksgiving Day

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6): Packers guard Josh Sitton decided to talk some turkey in preparation for this battle for the NFC North lead. On a radio show in Milwaukee, Sitton personally insulted Lions coach Jim Schwartz while also calling the Lions defense “a bunch of dirtbags or scumbags.” As if the fire needed more gasoline…

Detroit has played like turkeys the last two weeks, dropping games to Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in progressively more embarrassing fashion. This is the most important game of the Jim Schwartz era in Detroit, because if his team loses he is very likely to lose his job at the end of another playoff-less season.

The Packers are starting their fourth quarterback in five weeks in Matt Flynn, who has been unceremoniously dumped by two other teams in the last six months. The Green Bay secondary has struggled mightily to cover far more inferior receivers than Calvin Johnson. Sitton and his offensive line cohorts really struggled last week against Minnesota’s four-man pass rush, and the Lions defensive dirtbags and scumbags up front got pressure on Bucs QB Mike Glennon on 68 percent of his dropbacks.

The matchups all favor Detroit. Of course they have in other games too, and the Lions have choked on the bones. Not this time. I think the Lions stuff the Packers and Eddie Lacy.

Lions 33, Packers 17 

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5): The Cowboys have several advantages in this meeting with the Raiders, who will once again start undrafted rookie Matt McGloin at quarterback. No advantage matters more than the most abstract one, however: the calendar.

Tony Romo has a career record of 25-6 in the month of November. That goes beyond rational explanation. He extended that last week with his NFL-leading 11th fourth-quarter comeback since 2011 against the Giants. There are just too many signs pointing to the hosts to ignore.

Cowboys 30, Raiders 16 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3): These two teams seemingly always play games decided by exactly three points, so the spread makes perfect sense. Technically, it’s just eight of the last 11 that have been decided by exactly a field goal, but that’s a pretty strong trend. Home field hasn’t mattered a lot, strangely.

The Steelers are playing much better football lately since their 0-4 start, and the Ravens really don’t have an answer for Antonio Brown. It might surprise you that Brown leads the NFL in receptions with 80 and ranks second in yardage with 1,044 yards. I also really like the move by Steelers' defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau to play Troy Polamalu more as a linebacker and less as a safety. He’s downright awful in coverage far more than he’s effective, and keeping him from having back-end responsibilities allows him to do what he does best. That’s good coaching, and it’s why it is way too early to write off these Steelers. As long as Kelvin Beachum and the patchwork offensive line keep Ben Roethlisberger in the game, I like the road team.

Steelers 24, Ravens 21

Sunday Best

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+4): This will be a very interesting meeting beyond the fact that these two are tied for first place in the AFC West. Denver was just on the wrong end of one of the most impressive comebacks in NFL history, and now they have to play on the road in the cold in a hostile environment.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, have lost two in a row since their bye week. Last week they also lost top pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Both are questionable to play in this one, though Hali insisted he was good to go late on Wednesday. He’d better be, because if they cannot pressure Peyton Manning he’s apt to slaughter them. The forecast as of Wed. at 4:14 PM is for the temperature to be 44 and sunny at game time. Everyone knows about Manning’s struggles in sub-40 temps, but this one looks like it will be played in better weather with minimal wind.

I think the mettle and experience of the Broncos pays off here. These Chiefs are not far removed from 2-14, and they’re also playing a year after one of their own committed suicide in the team parking lot. For an excellent read on the Jovan Belcher tragedy, check out Jeff Pearlman’s excellent piece from Bleacher Report.

Broncos 24, Chiefs 20 

Sunday Rest

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5): This is a total hunch pick. When I typed up the team matchup, I immediately got a very strong feeling about the Eagles being victorious. Shortly thereafter, my son flipped on the Sixers game. That’s a divine sign.

Eagles 20, Cardinals 17 

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1): This is one of those games where there is one significant mismatch when comparing units vs. units. The Minnesota running game is one of the best in football, ranking fifth in yards per carry. The Bears rank 30th in opposing yards per carry but the actual number is emphatically worsening by the week. It’s at 6.4 yards per carry the last month after allowing 8.9 to the Rams last week. Between the decimated front line and the completely incompetent safeties, the Bears have no shot at slowing down Adrian Peterson. They can’t even slow down Toby Gerhart.

I suspect the Bears offense will be able to put up points as well, but their offensive line is not playing as well lately as it was earlier in the season. Matt Forte’s gimpy knee really hurts too.

Vikings 34, Bears 31 

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1): Here is something I have learned over the years in trying to forecast what Rex Ryan’s Jets are going to do. Whenever it seems bleakest, the Jets come out and play well. Ryan always winds up prepping his teams better when expectations are low. And after last week’s blithering ineptitude against the Ravens, expectations are really low.

Aside from the intangible edge there, the Dolphins makeshift offensive line is at a severe disadvantage against the Jets’ excellent 3-man front. Nose tackle Damon Harrison deserves a lot more praise for his bedrock run defense in the middle. Lamar Miller and the Dolphins will learn about the big man the hard way, I suspect. Bad week for Miller’s fantasy owners. Good week for Jets defense owners.

Jets 16, Dolphins 10 for 250 som 

New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+8): Last year when these two teams met, the Texans broke out the varsity lettermen jackets. Since that game, a humbling blowout by the Patriots, Houston is 3-13. They lost last week to Jacksonville. Seriously folks, this is the worst team in the NFL right now despite having the deserving Defensive MVP in JJ Watt.

I would actually like the Texans more if they were double-digit dogs, because Bill Belichick teams always struggle as favorites in those games. They probably should be favored by about 14, but for some reason the books still have some peculiar shine on the Texans. There’s a great opportunity here to tease some points as part of a larger parlay.

Patriots 30, Texans 13 for 500 som

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4): Had the Colts won and Titans lost last week, Indy could have wrapped up the AFC South with a win here. Instead, the Colts got annihilated by the Cardinals, while backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick played great in leading the Titans over the Raiders. Suddenly what seemed inevitable is now a realistic question.

If the Colts are going to win this game, they must play better in the first half of the game. Andrew Luck is the master of the comeback, but he has to keep them within striking distance. Last week he was awful, but the pass defense was even worse. And it’s that weak pass defense that gives the Titans a real shot here. The Ryan Fitzpatrick who played last week can absolutely beat these Colts, but I cannot count on that happening. I wouldn’t blame you for thinking it will happen, but I like the Colts to rebound at home. It won’t be easy though.

Colts 26, Titans 24 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-8): After starting 0-8 and having home fans openly cheering against the team in the hopes of getting Greg Schiano fired, the Buccaneers have won three in a row. More impressively, it’s not a fluke. I’ve watched all their victories and they are not getting this done with smoke and mirrors. They’re getting it done with dominant play from defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, All-Pro caliber play from linebacker Lavonte David, and a measured steadiness from rookie QB Mike Glennon.

Still, the Bucs benefitted greatly from five Detroit turnovers last week, three of which almost seemed as if created by divine intervention. Even with a +5 turnover margin, the Bucs barely won in Detroit. As long as the Panthers take care of the football, they should prevail. Carolina is +10 in turnover margin on the season, and they’ve given the ball away just 14 times in 11 games. Advantage, Panthers, but I do like the Bucs to cover quite a bit.

Panthers 27, Buccaneers 21 for 500 som 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-7): The Jaguars notched their second win of the season last week, which by most accounts is their season expectation. The Browns are stuck on four wins, but three of those wins are at home. I think the Browns are more like a 5-7 team than the Jaguars are a 3-9 team, which will be the record for the winner. Consider this a tentative vote for the home team.

Browns 24, Jaguars 17 

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5): I really like what I saw from both teams last week. The Rams ran around, over and through the Bears, while the 49ers bludgeoned the Ethnic Slurs on Monday night.

The home team is more capable of replicating that result. While I do like the way the Rams have adjusted the offense under Kellen Clemens at QB, the San Francisco defense is another animal entirely from the Bears. Aldon Smith finally looked like his old self against Washington. He brings another element to the Niners, making a good defense a great one. I can’t see Clemens--who has been just as good as Sam Bradford most weeks--pulling off the upset on the road. Both teams could notch a defensive score.

49ers 24, Rams 17 

Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-3.5): This is a golden opportunity for Buffalo. The Bills come off their bye week with a home game that figures to be played with temps in the 30s against a dome team from the South that is playing out a lost season. If ever the Buffalo Bills were to rise up and show they belong in the expansively muddy AFC playoff race, this is the time.

Perhaps the rumors of Jon Bon Jovi’s interest in buying the team heat up the Bills to 7800⁰ Fahrenheit. Or it could be Bad Medicine, but maybe Bad Medicine is what they need. Keep the Faith, Bills fans, because this game could Bounce you into a Bed of Roses.

Bills 30, Falcons 24 for 250 

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-1.5): These are two of the most difficult teams to predict. Both are talented but inconsistent, much to the chagrin of their fan bases. The Bengals are the better overall team, and they do have one key matchup advantage: their passing offense against the San Diego pass defense. Check out this exchange from Twitter:

In the parlance of the youth, A.J. Green gonna eat. I think he eats just enough to win, but if Bad Andy Dalton surfaces here, the Chargers could make it a blowout in the other direction. Wager at your peril!

Bengals 29, Chargers 27

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1.5): Can we please stop focusing on Robert Griffin as the root cause of Washington’s abysmal 3-8 record?!? How about their astonishingly awful defense? That side of the ball allows an average QB rating over 100 every week. They rank dead last in yards per attempt. They miss an average of 10 tackles per game. Only the Vikings have given up more points than Washington’s 338 thru 11 games.

Has RG3 been great? Heck no, but Peyton Manning would struggle to outscore the opposition with Washington’s brutal defense and completely inept special teams.

Giants 41, Ethnic Slurs 27

Monday Night

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5): This is a real bad case of timing for the Seahawks to lose corners Brandon Browner and Walter Thurmond to drug suspensions. While Browner was already out with a groin injury, Thurmond was expected to play a lot. Teams always need all hands on deck in the back end when facing Drew Brees and New Orleans, and now the Seahawks are really shorthanded.

This is the sixth and seventh drug suspension for Seattle since 2011, the most of any team. I’ll have more about what all that means in this week’s $.10, but suffice to say I think the laws of karma are going to bite coach Pete Carroll in the butt. Not sure it happens at home in prime time, however. Having Percy Harvin as another weapon for Russell Wilson means they can outscore the Saints, and I suspect that’s how this one will play out.

Seahawks 30, Saints 28

Betting recap

Tampa Bay +8 for 500

New England -8 for 500

New York Jets -1 for 250

Buffalo -3.5 for 250 

College Games

Ohio State 40, Michigan 16. Too much Carlos Hyde and at least three Devin Gardner turnovers for Michigan.

Alabama 20, Auburn 17. Close but no cigar for War Eagle.

South Carolina 28, Clemson 24. Mr. Boyd, meet Mr. Clowney. Again.

Texas A&M 33, Missouri 30 as Johnny Manziel tries to revitalize his Heisman candidacy.

Stanford 26, Notre Dame 13

Bonus game:

Mt. Union 39, Wittenberg 33