Due to some demand from the email and Twitter faithful, I’ve opted to include a power poll with this edition. The number before each team is their current power poll ranking.

The weather looks cold and perhaps moist in the east and mid-south, and there are a lot of outdoor games this weekend. Weather could be a factor in Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Philly, Chicago and New York.

Last Week: 7-7. It was not a good week. 95-53 on the season.

Gambling Update: I wagered 1,250 Uzbek som over four games. Two of those tickets cashed in, winning a total of 1,500 som. Thanks to the Carolina Panthers for the big win! I now have 5,500 after starting with 10,000. And for the curious, it will be 62 and sunny in Olmaliq on Sunday.

Thursday Night

#9 Indianapolis Colts at #22 Tennessee Titans (+3): The Colts get a chance to get back on track and all but wrap up the AFC South in the week’s first game. It’s also a chance for Andrew Luck to prove he can operate effectively without Reggie Wayne.

I think last week’s blowout loss to the Rams was a fluke. It was just one of those days for the Colts. Good teams bounce back from those types of games. Great teams rebound with Moses Malone ferocity. We find out here if these Colts are good or great. It’s up to Luck and to the inconsistent defense. They should have little trouble with backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and a Titans team which has lost four of five.

Colts 27, Titans 13 for 250 som

Sunday Best

#7 San Francisco 49ers at #2 New Orleans Saints (-3): Three reasons why I really like the Saints in this game.

1. San Francisco’s passing offense is awful. Colin Kaepernick is struggling, in no small part because his receiving corps is an injured heap of rotting garbage that cannot get open.

2. The New Orleans' offense has looked more physical over the past few weeks, even in defeat. They will not be intimidated by the very good San Francisco defense.

3. It’s in New Orleans, and the Saints at home are arguably the best team in football.

Put all that together and I really like the home team. The Niners are not constructed to win shootouts, certainly not against the likes of Drew Brees. This one could get ugly.

Saints 29, Niners 17 

#1 Kansas City Chiefs at #4 Denver Broncos (-8.5): I have a somewhat crazy theory that the Broncos peaked early, just like the Texans of a year ago. After steamrolling everyone in their path in September, their more recent games have not shown the air of utter dominance. 

That’s not to say they aren’t a very good football team. They are favored by more than a touchdown over an undefeated team for a reason. But I think the Chiefs have a fighting chance to win. Here’s why:

Look at Kansas City’s defensive front seven and match them up with Denver’s offensive line and running backs. Every single matchup, Kansas City wins, and many of them are not even close. If they can somehow turn that one distinct advantage into the key of the game, the Chiefs will remain undefeated.

Unfortunately for KC, Denver has a major advantage at quarterback in Peyton Manning. His receiving corps of Welker, Thomas, Decker, and Thomas creates another advantage over a quality Chiefs secondary, too. Considering Alex Smith has thrown just two touchdown passes in four road games, I do not like their chances in a shootout with Denver. As great as the Kansas City pass rush is, they’re not going to get home every time. When they don’t, Manning will strike.

Broncos 31, Chiefs 25 

Sunday Rest

#17 Cleveland Browns at #10 Cincinnati Bengals (-6): Okay Cincinnati, here is your chance to prove you are a worthy of being mentioned as a legit AFC contender. Three weeks ago I pronounced you just that, and you’ve proceeded to lay two giant eggs in a row. Just when I thought it was safe to believe you were not the same old Bengals, you proved you are in fact that same team. 

The Browns will not be easy. Jason Campbell has breathed life into the Browns' offense, which doesn’t miss either 2012 first round pick one bit. Both Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden proved to be wasted picks. Amazingly, Cleveland has proven resilient enough to soldier on without those two valuable picks. If they can secure the win here, they make the AFC North race really interesting. The Bengals lost their two most talented defensive players in Leon Hall and Geno Atkins in the last month and don’t appear to have recovered just yet. I’m taking the Bengals, but it would not surprise me at all if the Browns pulled off the upset. 

Bengals 24, Browns 20 

#8 Detroit Lions at #23 Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5): Detroit has not won in Pittsburgh since Nov. 13, 1955. On that date, Alaska and Hawaii were not yet US states. It also happens to be the birthdate of Whoopi Goldberg, though I would have guessed her a little younger than that. 

The Lions have already buried one freakishly long road losing streak this year. They won in Washington for the first time ever back in September. On a day where Matthew Stafford will overtake Bobby Layne as the franchise leader in passing yards, they put another dubious historical trend to bed. Calvin Johnson could very well put up another 200 yard game, payback against Pittsburgh for the last time these two met when he netted just one catch for two yards. That was 2009, and these teams are completely different from that last matchup. Detroit is a road favorite for a reason. 

Lions 33, Steelers 21 

#18 Baltimore Ravens at #16 Chicago Bears (-3.5): Lost in the Great Jay Cutler Groin Controversy was the putrid running offense by Chicago against the Lions. Matt Forte ran for 33 yards on 17 carries and gained more than three yards on a run just twice. The Chicago offensive line repeatedly lost the battle at the line of scrimmage. They cannot afford to do that against Baltimore. The Ravens defense isn’t great, but if they can make the Bears one dimensional they stand a decent chance of winning. 

To me, this game comes down to Joe Flacco. If the good Flacco shows up, he and his Ravens receivers will eviscerate a bad Bears coverage unit, which now must play without top talent Charles Tillman. Chicago has no discernible pass rush to help the back end. The Joe Flacco from late last year could throw 6 TDs here. But the bad Flacco, like the one who has shown up pretty regularly on the road this year, will find a way to complete less than 50 percent of his first-half passes and toss a couple of INTs. Nine of his 11 INTs have come on the road, and his QB Rating on 3rd down on the road is hovering in the 50s. I can’t explain it, but somehow the Bears will find a way to coax out the Bad Flacco. This game might feature 80 combined rushing yards on 45 carries. I’ll take the Bears with a special teams touchdown. 

Bears 28, Ravens 22 

#12 Arizona Cardinals at #32 Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5): The Cardinals are the NFC playoff contender nobody ever talks about. Andre Ellington is the rookie RB nobody talks about either. Both deserve more attention. Ellington averages 7.2 yards per carry and also catches about three balls per game for nine yards a pop. He’s both quick and fast, traits that are not as synonymous as most folks like to think they are.

The Cardinals defense thrives at forcing turnovers, bagging 20 takeaways so far. They also rank 3rd in the last month in yards per attempt allowed. The Jaguars are actually improving in that offensive category, but they still sit just 28th. Bad matchup for the Jaguars.

Cardinals 27, Jaguars 14

#26 Oakland Raiders at #30 Houston Texans (-7): I must give credit to Houston media personality Lance Zierlein for openly questioning the Texans free agent importation of Ed Reed. He questioned it from even before it happened. I waffled in agreement, liking his points but somehow still believing in one of my all-time favorite players.

Lance was right. Reed was let go by Baltimore for a reason: he’s done. The Ravens knew it. The Texans learned the hard way. They released Reed after another abysmal performance in the dispiriting loss to Arizona. As a sign that everyone else also knows he’s done, Reed went unclaimed on the waiver wire. It was an expensive mistake for the Texans, who let Glover Quin leave in free agency. Quin has quietly played pretty well in Detroit, while Reed offered little other than a name.

As for this game, I think the emotional lift of Gary Kubiak’s return to the sidelines carries the Texans. There is too much talent still on the Reliant Stadium home team to lose eight in a row.

Texans 23, Raiders 20 for 500 som

#11 New York Jets at #25 Buffalo Bills (-1.5): I watched the coach’s tape of the Bills/Steelers game from last week twice as preparation for my Lions/Steelers breakdown at Bleacher Report. One of the things which really stood out about the Bills was rookie QB E.J. Manuel’s almost complete reluctance to try and throw the ball down the field. Even when he had time, Manuel quickly checked down to shorter routes.

Death by paper cut is not an effective strategy to bleed out an aggressive defense. Buffalo’s line had issues with Pittsburgh’s front, and this Jets front threesome is superior to the Steelers. If the Bills cannot try and strike down the field, they’re going to drown in the Jet wash. I like the Jets, but I really like the under at +/- 40.5. Five of the last six meetings in Buffalo have gone under, and 12 of New York’s last 15 roadies against teams with a losing record have also gone under. Thanks to the god folks at Covers.com for the info there.

Jets 20, Bills 17

#31 Atlanta Falcons at #29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5): You might be wondering how I could possibly rank the Buccaneers over the Falcons. After all, Tampa just won its first game of the season on Monday night against the sinking ship of dysfunction that is Miami.

Consider this an indication of how bad I truly believe these Falcons have become. The injuries have made them far removed from the perennial playoff team they’ve been under Mike Smith. They have no ability to run the ball, ranking dead last at just over 62 yards per game. They are in the bottom seven in both rushing and passing defense and are trending in the wrong direction in both categories.

For all the losing, the Bucs have been fairly competitive most weeks. Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, who I went out of my way to criticize during the draft process, has looked fairly competent most of the time. He is developing chemistry with Vincent Jackson, one of the best wideouts in the business. Seeing as how Atlanta has little ability to rush the passer and struggles in coverage, I think the Glennon-to-Jackson combo will have a big day. The Falcons offense also has no answer for Gerald McCoy, a criminally underappreciated disruptive force of a defensive tackle. Fear for Matt Ryan.

Buccaneers 23, Falcons 20

#24 Washington Redskins at #13 Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5): The Eagles get a chance to soar above the rest of the NFC East with a win here. It would effectively vanquish any hope for the Ethnic Slurs, who were also 3-6 last year before an epic run to secure a playoff berth. I don’t see this Washington defense up to the task of either this game or another improbable playoff run. For those in weekly salary cap fantasy games, Eagles wideout Desean Jackson is a must-have this week. Nick Foles is a good value at quarterback too.

Eagles 33, Ethnic Slurs 24 for 250 som

#15 San Diego Chargers at #28 Miami Dolphins (+1): If this were a Norv Turner Chargers team, I would reflexively pick against them. This is a game they absolutely should win, a reeling opponent with major offensive issues and serious internal chaos. Norv’s teams had a bad habit of bombing in situations like this.

I wonder how different these Mike McCoy Chargers are. They always seem to be involved in close games; six of their contests have finished as one possession outcomes, including a 28-20 loss to the mighty Broncos last week. This is a rare chance to head far east and squash an opponent. If they can get out to an early lead, I think the Chargers could win by four touchdowns, I really do. But I suspect they will dicker around and keep Miami in the game.

This is where the Martin/Incognito situation really hurts Miami: they are missing two starting offensive linemen. While Martin might stink on the field, they do miss him and his tormenting cohort from a depth standpoint. As an aside, if Jonathan Martin weren’t such an underwhelming and disappointing football player, none of this would ever have happened. Harsh but true.

Chargers 17, Dolphins 15

#14 Green Bay Packers at #20 New York Giants (-6): My quick take on Packers QB Aaron Rodgers saying he might come back as soon as next week with his broken left collarbone: I think he’s sending a message to his team to fight and that help is on the way. Get me a couple of wins and I shall return like MacArthur to the Philippines. It’s more about inspirational effect than actual medical possibility for Rodgers.

I don’t doubt his sincerity or toughness, but I do doubt that any medical staff with any cojones would allow him to play with a broken shoulder before the Thanksgiving Day game in Detroit. Even that important contest is really pushing it. One of the things that happens when your broken shoulder is immobilized is that your neck and back muscles stiffen. Even though it’s not his throwing shoulder, it will still impact his ability to throw the ball. Experiment with this yourself if you like. Put your left arm in a sling for the weekend. Now try and throw a 40-yard spiral between two moving cars on Monday morning, again without moving your left shoulder at all. Feel the burn in your neck and the surprising new pain in your right elbow. Now imagine a guy like Jason Pierre-Paul or Nick Fairley hitting you as you release the ball and smashing you into the ground. The opportunity for reinjuring the shoulder before it’s properly healed is not worth the risk.

So the inspirational impact is the proper angle. They need all the inspiration they can get in facing the suddenly hot Giants. I think Scott Tolzien will look competent against New York, but I worry a lot about how Green Bay’s banged-up defense can handle Victor Cruz or Hakeem Nicks. The lack of coordination in the Packers secondary is a fatal flaw, and it bites them in this game. General Rodgers tried his best, but his troops are surrounded by hungry Giants.

Giants 34, Packers 28

#27 Minnesota Vikings at #3 Seattle Seahawks (-13): This is the biggest line of the week. As much as I like to try and think of ways the Vikings can win, the reality is that this line probably should be a few points bigger. I do not think the impressive Vikings of a week ago can successfully carry that momentum into Seattle. At all.

Seahawks 29, Vikings 10 for 500 som

Byes: #19 Dallas Cowboys, #21 St. Louis Rams

Monday Night

#6 New England Patriots at #5 Carolina Panthers (-2.5): I have a self-imposed deadline of 11 AM Eastern on Thursday to finish this column. It’s now 10:58. My coffee pot ran empty hours ago and my stomach still hasn’t adjusted to the time change, so I’m ravenously hungry. This game appears to be a coin flipper, so I’m flipping a quarter to decide. But wait, the quarter is from North Carolina. That’s a sign!

Panthers 17, Patriots 13

Betting Recap:

Houston -7 for 500

Seattle -13 for 500

Philadelphia -3.5 for 250

Indianapolis -3 for 250

College Games

Auburn 24, Georgia 23

Miami 19, Duke 17

Houston 33, Louisville 31

Stanford 30, USC 24

Texas 34, Oklahoma State 28

Bonus: Sam Houston State 53, SE Louisiana 50 in triple overtime