Last Week: 8-6, making the season forecast 48-29

Betting Update: Week 5 was my first week starting with a net profit. I was up to 10,500 Uzbek som. I wagered 2,050 som and hit on two 500 som wagers. The return of 1000 leaves me at 9,450 som on the season. Down in a hole. Losing my soul. I’d like to fly but my wings are bent.

Thursday Game

New York Giants at Chicago Bears (-7.5): What might be the least-imposing defensive line in the league faces off against what might be the least-imposing offensive line in the league. True, the Bears still have Julius Peppers up front, but the rest of their injury-plagued defensive line is full of guys who are marginal NFL talents. But the Giants' offensive line has been so bad, I cannot even put it into proper words.

Peppers has enough talent and ability by himself to take over this game. Eli Manning is already feeling pressure even before it’s there, and the prospect of tissue-soft Will Beatty isolated in protection against Peppers probably has Eli already scrambling around. Considering Manning is the least-athletic quarterback (player?) in the entire league, that’s a bad matchup for the G-Men. The fact they cannot run the ball at all to ease the pressure or keep the defense honest exacerbates the situation.

And then there’s Maude. Bea Arthur’s hardened gaze on that great show from my childhood is tougher than the Giants' defense. They cannot rush the passer. They cannot cover the middle of the field. They cannot create takeaways. They cannot stop off-tackle or misdirection runs. It’s enough to make Tom Coughlin want to join Bea Arthur’s television daughter in an updated version of the Golden Girls. Even in her 60s I bet Adrienne Barbeau (Google her, kids) could still ease Coughlin’s tension in a happy retirement. RIP Bea Arthur, who passed away in 2010. RIP, any remaining Giants' dignity.

Bears 37, Giants 24 

Sunday Best

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-2.5): I was deeply concerned with what I saw from the New England offense last week. Tom Brady is a legendary quarterback, but something is amiss. He doesn’t have any chemistry with his wideouts, and it seemed like Brady was letting the pressure get to him more than I can recall.

This is one of those games where we find out how good these two teams really are. The winner of this game is making a real statement. The Patriots need a quality win on the résumé. Their only respectable win thus far is beating the Jets, and they’ve barely squeaked by against bottom-feeders like Buffalo, Atlanta, and Tampa Bay. They best team they’ve faced, Cincinnati, beat them 13-6 last week. 

The Saints are undefeated but haven’t exactly faced Murderer’s Row either. They share victories with New England over Tampa Bay and Atlanta. The difference in scoring margin is somewhat illuminating. New Orleans was +6 against those teams, while the Patriots were +27.

That tidbit gives me hope for the Patriots. That this game is in New England also lends more weight towards the Patriots, more because the Saints can struggle outdoors than any great home field advantage by the Pats. I expect a big rebound game from Tom Brady, who failed to throw a touchdown for the first time in 52 games. He will find chances against a Saints defense that likes to bring quick pressure that leaves defensive backs isolated. I’m still more than confident that Saints tight end Jimmy Graham will continue to carry my fantasy football team, Ansah the Question, to another victory. But fantasy football wins don’t equate real gridiron wins. I think this game is decided on a last-second field goal.

Patriots 27, Saints 26 for 100 som

Sunday Rest

Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns (+2.5): The team of my heart visits the team of my formative home. This is always a tough one for my family, as I am the only non-Browns' fan in the Risdon clan.

What makes this game even more difficult is the questionable status of Calvin Johnson. Megatron is expected to be a game-time decision with his balky knee. Lions' fans witnessed the horror of the offense without him last week, the 22-9 loss to Green Bay. Because of that, I’m going to hedge the forecast here. The line as of Wed. evening says the Lions are favored, but watch that flip if Calvin Johnson is inactive.

If Calvin Johnson plays, the Lions win 23-20. No Johnson means Cleveland wins 24-10.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+7): The Bills are forced to turn to practice squad QB Thaddeus Lewis to run their offense. This is the same Lewis who got beat out by Kellen Moore as the third quarterback in Detroit. While I’ve sung Lewis’ praises before--he did look solid in his lone start in Cleveland last season--the fact that this is his third team in 9 months, and that he’s been behind undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel is not inspiring at all. Tuel was woefully overmatched in relief duty against the Browns.

One additional reason to like the Bengals: their backup quarterback. Josh Johnson will only play if Andy Dalton gets hurt, but stylistically he’s a dead ringer for Lewis. The Bengals defense gets to practice against a close facsimile of the opposing quarterback all week. That doesn’t happen very often. This one could get ugly if the Bills can’t break off some big plays with the run…and they might. Of course that neglects to mention the Buffalo secondary doesn’t really have an answer for AJ Green or Gio Bernard out of the backfield. If the Bengals are ever to get a blowout road win, this is their time.

Bengals 28, Bills 10 for 500 som

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5): The Carolina Panthers continue to break hearts…mine included. How can a team with so much top-shelf talent--Steve Smith, Luke Kuechly, Greg Hardy, Charles Johnson, Greg Olsen--and an impressive young defensive tackle duo be so bad?

The problem has been Cam Newton. The Panthers are 30th in passing yards per game even though Newton has a dynamic #1 wideout in Smith and a very good tight end in Olsen. Running back DeAngelo Williams is a good receiver out of the backfield as well. Newton has struggled with accuracy, but also making quick enough decisions. Other than lighting up the hapless Giants, and who doesn’t light up the Giants, Newton just doesn’t seem to be having fun either. His trademark joie de vivre is what helped make Newton special and what convinced the Panthers to make him the No. 1 overall pick in 2011, that radiant smile and playful swagger are all but gone.

I have a feeling we’re going to see that smile creep back a little in Minnesota. While the Vikings are also somewhat underachieving relative to their talent level, they have even more serious issues at quarterback. I like the Panthers to play closer to their potential and come up with the road upset. If they don’t, all the rumors surrounding head coach Ron Rivera’s replacement get accelerated.

Panthers 24, Vikings 20

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5): The Raiders have had a lot of success in Kansas City lately, which Chiefs' fans take great umbrage with. This is still one of the best rivalries in the NFL even though neither franchise has tasted success in several years.

The inspired, sharp Oakland team that beat up San Diego late Sunday night can absolutely win this game. I love how the Raiders' offensive scheme has played to Terrelle Pryor’s strengths, giving him two reads in the same sightline on each pass and moving him around behind a shaky line. Their opportunistic secondary can wreak havoc. But it’s hard to count on those Raiders showing up. I’m tempted to take Oakland and the points, but at the same time I can easily see the Chiefs winning by four touchdowns. Be careful with this one, folks…

Chiefs 31, Raiders 24

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets (-2.5): This just in--the Jets are better than you think they are. The cool-headed competence of Geno Smith at quarterback has erased the self-immolating tendencies of their offense under The Sanchize. Now when the Jets say they can win with defense, the offense can actually hold up its end of the bargain and not lose the game.

That’s extraordinarily bad news for the Steelers. The Pittsburgh offensive line is terrible. Their running back situation is worse. And as has happened to him in prior stops in Arizona and Kansas City, Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley is facing an acrimonious mutiny from his players. There might not be a worse person to lead an offense when things aren’t going well than the recalcitrant, boorish Haley. It wouldn’t surprise me, or many Steelers insiders, if Ben Roethlisberger decides to play the “it’s him or me” card very soon. If the Jets' excellent defensive line keeps hitting him the way they did Matt Ryan on Monday, that ultimatum could come at halftime. Bad Xs and Os matchup for the Steelers, who cannot create takeaways on defense and rely on death-gasp improvisation from Roethlisberger as their only way to move the ball.

Jets 26, Steelers 16

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1): There appears to be a confluence of events here that make a perfect storm for the Bucs to pick up their first win. Michael Vick is out for the Eagles, leaving the far less mobile at quarterback. That will allow a pretty sturdy Tampa defensive front to narrow in on LeSean McCoy and tighten the running lanes. The Bucs are coming off a bye, which provides rookie QB Mike Glennon with the extra reps and increased comfort level with the receivers that he so desperately needs.

Hopefully the bye week facilitated some necessary tweaking to the offensive philosophy as well. The Bucs need to give Glennon more route options at more levels of the defense, something that has been sorely lacking under Greg Schiano’s offense. With troubled QB Josh Freeman now gone, Greg Schiano can focus on the Xs and Os. Facing a leaky Philadelphia defense, which struggles to both cover and tackle, is a great opportunity to test out some new tricks. They’ve been close several times this year, and this time they get to chomp the victory cigar.

Buccaneers 29, Eagles 27

St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans (-7.5): On Wednesday, Texans coach Gary Kubiak publicly announced that Matt Schaub will remain his starting quarterback despite his recent woes. Schaub has thrown an interception that was returned for a touchdown in four straight games, a NFL record. Last week it was his first pass of the night, and the Texans never recovered.

One of two things is going to happen here. Either Schaub is going to work his way back to being a slightly above-average starter, which he has been for several years now, with a heavy dose of help from the Texans running game, or he’s going to make another catastrophic mistake. The Rams do have an opportunistic secondary and the ability to bring pressure to force bad throws. The Houston fans are anxious; if Schaub can produce an early touchdown and the Texans defense hold back the pop-gun Rams attack, the home crowd can rally around the Bulls on Parade. But if Schaub struggles again, and if the secondary continues to blow assignments, the boo birds will be vociferous.

I think this is a get-right game for the Texans, who are 2-3 but could very easily be 0-5. They have too much talent to not be better than they have been. On the other side, the Rams have played like the 2-3 team many of us expected.

Texans 30, Rams 17

Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens (+3): The Packers are the better team here, but the injury issues they have on defense are very troubling. The best player on the defense, Clay Matthews, broke his thumb while sacking Matt Stafford despite being unblocked last week. What kind of rotten luck is that?!?

The Ravens will have no sympathy. They’ve suffered injury issues of their own and have soldiered on. Yet I like what I saw from Green Bay’s defense last week. Their unconventional fronts gave a very good Lions OL fits, and they can do the same to the Ravens. At times you’ll see the Packers with one down lineman, others you’ll see what looks a lot like Buddy Ryan’s old 46 scheme. Even though the safeties are not real good and the linebacking corps is held together with spit and duct tape, the creativity and unconventionality give them a fighting chance.

The wild card here is the Ravens' defense. Green Bay also brought the creativity on offense last week. Lining up Randall Cobb as a running back was brilliant. His speed and shiftiness echoed of Reggie Bush in a game where Bush could do nothing for the other team. The variety of receivers at Aaron Rodgers’ disposal will severely test the Ravens secondary. I expect a lot of punting with a handful of huge plays mixed in. In a battle of who gets more big plays, I’ll take the Packers over the Ravens. Heck, in that situation I’ll take these Packers over anyone except maybe the Broncos. Now if they could just look better in the red zone…

Packers 24, Ravens 21

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5): A backup quarterback leading a mediocre team into the teeth of the best homefield advantage in the NFL? Yeah, this is one of those games that you don’t want to overanalyze…Beware overconfidence, however, as Seahawks QB Russell Wilson is struggling as a passer a lot more than the national media would have you believe.

Seahawks 23, Titans 10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-26.5): This is likely the largest NFL line we’ll ever see in our lifetimes. It’s not often the worst team in the league visits the best team in the league. Denver scored 51 last week in beating Dallas. Jacksonville has scored 51 points in their 5 games, all lopsided losses.

I’m not someone who likes to take the big risk as a gambler. I prefer to make an array of smaller bets instead of going heavy on one game. But this one is too attractive even at 26.5 points, which is actually down from the initial line.

Broncos 44, Jaguars 14 for 2500 som

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-11): I’m extremely confident the Niners are going to win this game. I’ll get that out right away. My issue here is the 11-point spread. Arizona’s defense has some real teeth, and they have playmakers in the secondary. With Colin Kaepernick badly struggling to throw the ball with any reliability, corners Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu are going to get opportunities to get their hands on the ball. Also, Kaepernick doesn’t have a great receiver like Larry Fitzgerald at his disposal.

Carson Palmer does, and if the Cards QB can find time to throw, he can hook up with the forgotten superstar. The problem is that the Niners' defense is playing very well, and the Cardinals line is in full-out panic mode after trading away starting left tackle Levi Brown. He stunk, but it’s not like Orlando Pace is stepping through the door to take his place. I expect a defensive score from both teams in this one, which helps explain what might seem like an optimistic level of point production.

49ers 20, Cardinals 14

Washington Ethnic Slurs at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5): This matchup is decidedly unworthy of all the national attention it’s receiving already. The 2-3 Cowboys might be coming off one of the most dramatic losses in NFL history, but in most situations history quickly forgets the losers. The Skins are 1-3 with one of the most asinine defensive schemes based on personnel that you could ever imagine, which gets overshadowed by all the RG3 knee drama. I won’t give this game any more attention than that. I really like the Cowboys offense to exploit the ridiculous conception and egregious tackling of the Washington defense.

Dallas 40, Washington 31

Byes: Miami and Atlanta

Monday Night

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (+1.5): One of the issues I often encounter in writing a weekly picks column is that I tend to get the storyline correct for a particular team, but I happen to insert that storyline into the wrong week. Last week I waxed on about the improvement of Philip Rivers and the Chargers, and they proceeded to get hammered by the Raiders. I’m discouraged but still believe in my underlying narrative there.

As a result, I’m going to stick with that story arc here. The Chargers offense will get back to what I thought they would do against Oakland. The Colts are obviously no pushovers, but between the home cooking and the shot at redemption in prime time, I like San Diego to rise up. Should the Chargers fail and let me down again, I’ll then let go of my death grip on the narrative I want to write about them. Indianapolis is the better team, but I might have cursed them by heaping praise upon Andrew Luck in this week’s $.10.

Chargers 28, Colts 24

Gambling Summary:

Denver -26.5 for 2500 som

Cincinnati -7 for 500 som

College Games:

This is a good weekend to do some armchair scouting, with several NFL prospects squaring off directly against one another in several games. Try and focus on how the players do against one another when isolated, notably Washington WR Kasen Williams vs. Oregon CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu. Williams kicked his tail in their meeting a year ago.

Oklahoma 33, Texas 25. The matchup to watch here (among many) is Longhorns DE Jackson Jeffcoat against Sooners tackle Tyrus Thompson. He’s only a junior but there are whispers Thompson could declare early.

Wisconsin 26, Northwestern 24. Watch NU offensive weapon Venric Mark against Badgers LB Chris Borland, who lacks stature but oozes instincts. Mark has more than a little Danny Woodhead to him.

Virginia Tech 20, Pittsburgh 17. This has a draft sleeper matchup between Pitt WR Devin Street and Hokies CB Kyle Fuller. Both are guys I think are going to rise during the evaluation process.

LSU 29, Florida 20. The scouting profile of LSU QB Zach Mettenberger is rising, but he faces a stiff test against Florida corner Loucheiz Purifoy. And if you want to get ahead of the curve, check out Gators freshman CB Vernon Heargraves.

Oregon 55, Washington 30. Aside from Williams/Ekpre-Olomu, watch standout Huskies RB Bishop Sankey against underrated Ducks LB Boseko Lokombo. Sankey looked great in this game a year ago, but so did Lokombo while playing off potential NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Kiko Alonso.