Last week: 10-5, pushing the season forecast to 40-23.

Betting Update: I started Week 4 with 8,400 Uzbek som, down from my initial 10,000. I nailed wagers on Indy, KC and San Francisco, winning 2,100. I lost 450 on two other games, so after a quarter of the season I am up a grand total of 50 som at 10,500. I’m barely out-earning my savings account.

The weather could play a big factor in many games. There is a named storm (Karen) which looks like it will dump buckets of rain on the Southeast and Gulf coast. It could even impact places like Cincinnati. A cold front will bring rain and wind to the upper Midwest, which changes the dynamic in Green Bay and Chicago. Keep in mind that rain helps the offense some but wind helps the defense even more.

Thursday Game

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-4): Two weeks ago, if you would have told me the Browns would be tied for first place after beating the Bengals, and the Bills would be coming off a pounding of Baltimore, I’d have laughed at you. Not the polite little laugh which people use when they are slightly embarrassed at someone else’s foolish ignorance, either. I’m talking Tobias Funke double-entendre-caused, side-splitting laughter that makes you shoot liquids out of your nose.

Cleveland is finally getting the offensive threat to keep defenses honest. While most Clevelanders would like to point to QB Brian Hoyer as the reason, I think wideout Josh Gordon’s return from suspension is just as critical. Perhaps even more critical. He provides the big-play dynamic that defenses must account for, and he also opens things up for his fellow wideouts. Hoyer has been good, but Gordon has helped make him better. The Bills made Joe Flacco look incompetent last week, but I chalk that up as a bad day by Flacco and an unrepeatable great day by a banged up Buffalo secondary.

Browns 19, Bills 13

Sunday Best

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+3): For those who like to pit AFC vs. NFC, this is one of those telltale games. The Seahawks are 4-0 and top many NFL power polls, including my own (you’ll see it Monday). The Colts have emerged as one of the AFC’s best, and their win in San Francisco gives them added street cred.

Seattle is a different, lesser team on the road, and I think that impacts them here. Without the 12th man bringing the infectious energy and disrupting the other team, the Seahawks lose a distinct advantage. Still, they have the talent to handle the Colts. I love the matchup of Richard Sherman against Andrew Luck, former Stanford mates. As a Lions' fan, I’m curious to watch Gosder Cherilus trying to block Cliff Avril.

That particular matchup highlights why the Seahawks are so darn good. On many teams, Cliff Avril would be the premier pass rusher. In Seattle, he’s the fourth defensive end on the depth chart. They have such superlative depth at key positions. Indy is in good shape with their starters at most positions, but their depth is almost nonexistent. The Colts tried to improve that depth with the Trent Richardson trade, and this is precisely the kind of game that will prove whether that was a prudent move or not. Richardson should be a 20-carry option for the Indy offense in this one, but he’s got to make more of those than 64 yards. I’m just not sold that he can do that against Brandon Mebane, Red Bryant, and one of the hardest-hitting and positionally sound linebacking corps in the league. Another hidden boon for Seattle--their special teams have been quietly fantastic. Upsets happen on special teams, but that’s not going to happen to Seattle.

Seahawks 23, Colts 17

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7): What to do with Matt Schaub… the Texans' quarterback has thrown pick sixes in each of the last three games. Last week’s vs. Seattle directly cost them a home win over a quality opponent, something already lacking on the résumé. The Texans are designed so that Schaub doesn’t have to win games for them, but he absolutely cannot lose them on his own volition either. His poor play has really hurt this year; even though they are 2-0 they are thisclose to being 0-4.

I think the Texans ought to seriously consider pulling Schaub if he struggles against San Francisco. While I’m no big fan of backup TJ Yates, I believe Schaub has lost the “can’t yank him” status bestowed upon top signal callers. Sometimes it’s better to take a seat and see things from a different perspective, and I think that might benefit both Schaub and the Texans. The 49ers in San Francisco is an awfully difficult place to try and right the ship, especially when it appears the Niners themselves are full steam ahead once again.

49ers 24, Texans 17

Sunday Rest

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7): The Lions fan in me wants to be optimistic. After all, Detroit already terminated one ignominious road losing streak earlier this year when they beat Washington on the road for the first time ever. It’s been 22 years since Erik Kramer outdueled Mike Tomczak to lead the Lions to a win in the state of Wisconsin. That was the last one. Jason Hanson played in Detroit for over two decades and he never won a road game versus the Packers.

Can the Lions end this dubious streak too? I believe they can. It certainly helps that Casey Hayward, the best CB you’ve never heard of, is out with a hamstring issue. Clay Matthews is also battling a bum hammy and is iffy at best. But the Lions have a key hamstring injury of their own in starting corner Chris Houston. Even with a healthy Houston, Detroit struggles to slow down Aaron Rodgers and his highly skilled set of receivers. Green Bay is also coming off a bye, and that’s bad news for Detroit. The Packers are 6-1 under Mike McCarthy in the first game off a bye week, including a 26-0 shellacking of the Lions in 2009.

This game will be a lot closer than that one. The Lions will win if they can convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns and finish no worse than even in turnover and penalty margins. But that’s asking a lot for that franchise.

Packers 36, Lions 31 for 250 som

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (pick ‘em): Last week, Chicago’s safeties were a gut-wrenching embarrassment against Reggie Bush and the Lions. Now they have to face the ultimate matchup problem in Saints TE Jimmy Graham. If the Bears try to help on Graham with their corners, that isolates Marques Colston deep on a safety. And that doesn’t even bring in Darren Sproles, a mighty mite with Bush-like receiving skills and agility.

I really, really like the way the Saints match up with the Bears. Young passing rushing force Junior Gallette is a nightmare mark for Chicago left tackle Jermon Bushrod, who used to play in New Orleans before they tired of him getting Drew Brees hit too frequently. Chicago has nobody that can rush the pass at all except the phenomenal Julius Peppers. Their linebackers are solid but they showed a lack of range against Detroit. With Peanut Tillman still slowed, I don’t see the Bears defense having much success.

They might get an assist from Mother Nature. Right now the forecast is for a 50% chance of thunderstorms and a high of just 59 degrees. A wet and windy day would help level the playing field. Even then, I still like the visitors.

Saints 35, Bears 28 for 500 som

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (pick ‘em): Still doubting the brilliance of Bill Belichick as the best coach of the post-Bill Walsh era? If so, you’re just a blind hater at this point. Last week they went into Atlanta and knocked off the Falcons with Tom Brady throwing to receivers that wouldn’t even be fourth on the ATL depth chart. Seven undrafted free agent rookies are on the team, and most of them play a lot. Lose star defensive tackle Vince Wilfork to a torn Achilles? They just plug in Joe Vellano, one of those undrafted free agents. I watched Vellano up close and personal during Shrine Game practices and he did little to distinguish himself amidst a pretty subpar group of defensive linemen on the practice field in St. Pete. Yet in New England he’s sacking Matt Ryan and blowing up screen passes.

It’s time for y’all to get past the whole Spygate incident and acknowledge the greatness of Bill Belichick. He’s continually creating 5-star dinners out of ingredients that lesser chefs couldn’t form into a bad Denny’s entrée. I like the Bengals roster a lot more than the Patriots, and I absolutely respect Marvin Lewis and his staff in Cincy. But somehow Team Hoodie will prevail. Just don’t ask me how they’re going to do it.

Patriots 20, Bengals 17

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-3): Baltimore traded a future draft pick to the Jacksonville Jaguars for starting left tackle Eugene Monroe this week. How lucky is Eugene Monroe?! He goes from being a solid starter on a terrible team to an upgrade on the defending Super Bowl champs.

I hope we see more of these types of trades. I favor them as much for player liberation as I do for strengthening playoff-caliber teams while have-nots try to acquire more draft assets to rebuild. How nice would it be for a solid veteran in a free agent walk year, thus ensuring he’s not returning, to get dealt from a bad team like the Jaguars or Rams to a contender like the Seahawks or Patriots? Here’s hoping Eugene Monroe, and Trent Richardson before him, is a sign of more trades to come.

Dolphins 26, Ravens 23

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+3): If Jake Locker were playing, I would definitely pick the Titans at home. But their quarterback, my early pick for Most Improved Player, is out for at least three weeks with a hip injury.

Enter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Even though he was a bottom-rung starter in Buffalo, this is a real chance for him to shine. He is athletically similar to Locker, though he lacks the arm strength. He’s filled in as a backup before and shined; that’s why Buffalo paid him tens of millions of dollars.

I also think the Chiefs are not as strong as the 4-0 record indicates. Teams don’t go from 2-14 to 5-0 very often, and this one won’t either.

Titans 23, Chiefs 21

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams (-12.5): It baffles my mind that anyone can think these Rams are 12.5 points better than anyone. That’s the only thought this horrible matchup merits. I take that back. Here’s another thought: this could very well be the last victory that the winner here gets all season.

Rams 28, Jaguars 20

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2): As unlikely as it might seem in the present, this game could very well decide a playoff berth. The Giants are absolutely terrible this year, inept on both lines and struggling with repeated turnovers on offense. Yet a win here over the Eagles and their wretched secondary, and they’re likely only a game off the lead for the NFC East. In a division where all four teams appear headed for 6-10 finishes, head-to-head games are of the utmost importance.

Can you imagine the consternation in Bristol, Connecticut and the major media outlets on the East Coast when the mighty NFC East, easily the most glorified and glamorous division in any professional sporting league, features a division winner with a 6-10 record?!? Chris Berman’s head might explode. The entire CBS pregame set may spontaneously combust. John Madden could roll in Pat Summerall’s grave. And all of us in “flyover country” will cherish every second of it.

Eagles 39, Giants 33

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+8.5): I can’t help but think of the song “Here We Are Juggernaut” by Coheed and Cambria when I watch the Broncos. Dallas will try to prove the lyrics of that great song prophetic. “This is not your place, no this is not your playground”, that has to be the recurring mantra for Dallas this week.

Yet I have a feeling by the end of this one, the Cowboys' fans will be signing another Coheed song. Specifically, they’ll be chanting the refrain from the end of Three Evils (Embodied in Love and Shadow): ”pull the trigger and the nightmare stops”. As macabre as those lyrics seem, it’s one of the happiest endings this side of an illicit Thai massage parlor. The guitar riff is so uplifting, the joy and freedom in Claudio Sanchez’s voice is so apparent. It makes you want to be happy even though the song is about abject misery. Embrace that, Dallas fans. Forever you will learn…

Broncos 39, Cowboys 28 for 500 som

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+4): The Chargers have been one of the most pleasant surprises of the early season. They sit at 2-2 and pissed away a 21-point fourth quarter lead against Houston. The key to the unexpected (to me) resurgence is the play of Philip Rivers. He’s proof that sometimes it really was the coach and not the player that was the problem, as he seems more confident and less uptight now that Norv Turner is gone. Oakland has a fighting chance if Terrelle Pryor can stay healthy. Now there’s a sentence I never thought I’d write.

Chargers 24, Raiders 18 for 300 som

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5): The Cardinals traded away starting left tackle Levi Brown this week, shipping the over-drafted underachiever to Pittsburgh. Not many teams can trade their starting left tackle in the middle of the season and realistically expect to get better, but Arizona might have done just that. Nate Potter takes over for Brown, whom he replaced for all of 2012 when Brown was out with an injury. In that 2012 season, Potter’s pass blocking graded out at -6.6 by the good folks at Pro Football Focus. You need a subscription to view that link, but if you consider yourself a NFL fan it’s worth the price. By way of comparison, Brown is already at -8.5…in just four games!

The Panthers will test him, no doubt. When we last saw Carolina before their ridiculously early bye week, they sacked Eli Manning 6 times in the first half. Eli Manning is not more athletic than many NFL players, but Carson Palmer is one of them. It’s hard to like a 1-2 team crossing the country, but the 1-3 hosts could be in real trouble here.

Panthers 20, Cardinals 17

Byes: Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

Monday Night

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-9.5): Here’s why the Jets have a strong chance to pull the upset: their biggest strength directly attacks Atlanta’s biggest weakness. The Jets' defensive front is very good, and the Falcons offensive line was suspect even before injuries hit. Now the Falcons have to play that front without left tackle Sam Baker. He stinks, but he’s starting because the next man up (Lamar Holmes) was an even less appealing option.

Another reason why I strongly believe the Jets at least cover the 9.5 point spread: Atlanta’s pass rush, of lack thereof. Jets' rookie QB Geno Smith has played like a rookie, but he’s shown he can be effective when he’s got time to throw. He’ll get that time in Atlanta. I’m not sure it will be enough to win outright, but I bet they stay close enough to keep the East Coast interested in this game well into the 11 PM hour. The Jets are better than widely believed, and the Falcons are worse than the general public impression. Take advantage of that.

Falcons 24, Jets 20 for 500 som

Betting recap:

Denver: -8.5 for 500

New Orleans: even for 500

New York Jets: +9.5 for 500

San Diego: -4 for 300

Detroit: +7 for 250

College Games:

Ohio State 44, Northwestern 37

Florida State 38, Maryland 10

Washington 27, Stanford 24

Virginia Tech 28, North Carolina 25

Utah State 30, BYU 22