Last Week: 9-7. Not the best but in a crazy weekend I’ll take it. 30-18 on the season.

Betting Update: I wagered 1900 Uzbek som. One of the four horses came home, the 500 I put on Seattle. The losing weekend puts me at 8,400 som after starting with 10,000. That’s not going to put my kids through college.

And in this week’s “Learn Something About Uzbekistan” feature, they are the region’s largest exporter of cotton. However, labor unrest in the western cotton fields is increasing and a journalist who has written extensively on the subject has mysteriously gone “missing”.

Thursday Night

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (+3): Everyone is fretting over Colin Kaepernick and the struggling San Francisco offense, but that’s not the only reason why the 49ers are sputtering. Their mighty defense has fallen off too, and it’s not going to get any better without Aldon Smith in the lineup anytime soon. Their corners are not as sticky in coverage as previous editions, and they really miss the hammering safety presence of Dashon Goldson behind them. Patrick Willis is still only 28, but there’s an awful lot of mileage on his tires and it’s starting to show. That’s not to say the SF defense isn’t solid, because it’s still a talented unit that plays pretty well, but it’s no longer a unit capable of dominating games.

I do think the Niners right the ship a bit here. The Rams have defensive issues of their own, notably the dramatic dropoff in play from finicky corner Cortland Finnegan. The good folks at Pro Football Focus have graded him not only the worst corner in the league, but the second worst defensive player overall. Even though San Francisco has issues at wide receiver, Finnegan has been making everyone look like Jerry Rice this year. This is where Jim Harbaugh earns Coach of the Year votes, rallying his distressed team and vanquishing a pesky divisional foe. If they lose here, and they might, Harbaugh risks edging closer in the public consciousness to Rex Ryan foolish boobery status.

I’d feel a lot better about the Rams if they posed a more serious offensive threat, but they don’t. The Rams rank near the bottom in yards per pass attempt, yards per rushing attempt, and third down conversion percentage. The Rams defense is also awful on third down, allowing conversion on 50 percent of opponent’s attempts. It’s a recipe for revitalization for San Francisco.

49ers 22, Rams 13 for 300 som

Sunday Best

Seattle Seahawks at Houston Texans (+3): This is a stern test for Houston and a good litmus test for Seattle. Houston has not played real well, squeaking to victories over San Diego (they trailed 28-7) and Tennessee (trailing by eight with two minutes to go before winning in overtime), and last week they got trounced by Baltimore.

If they want to beat the top team in any credible NFL power ranking, the Texans have to do a better job creating turnovers. Through three games the Bulls on Parade have just one takeaway on the season, and the sack rate is down as well. Even with Brian Cushing back, they just aren’t getting impact plays from the linebackers and secondary. It won’t be easy against Seattle, which leads the league in turnover margin at +6 through just three games.

Both these defenses are very stingy in giving up yards. But because Seattle can reliably force turnovers, the visitors have a distinct advantage. They also are better on punt returns, which can make a world of difference in a game that figures to be low-scoring and where field position will play a major factor. The Seahawks are flying high right now, and as long as they don’t flap down on their intensity and execution, they should get the impressive road win.

Seahawks 19, Texans 17

Sunday Rest

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-4): Both these teams are testaments to what even slight improvement in quarterback play can do for a team. Instead of having Mark Sanchez or Jake Locker throw games away, this year these offenses have avoided providing the gasoline for their own fires.

New York did so by changing from Sanchez to rookie Geno Smith. It helps that Bilal Powell has upgraded the running game and Santonio Holmes gives them a credible receiving threat. Tennessee stuck with Locker, and much to my amazement he might finally be turning the proverbial corner.

I still don’t trust Locker, but a win here would go a long way toward assuaging my doubts. He was undeniably fantastic last week in the win over San Diego. Wideout Nate Washington has been fantastic all season, while youngster Kendall Wright continues to show steady improvement. I do like the Jets defense and the resurgence of linebacker David Harris, but Tennessee has a strong defense of its own. As long as Locker doesn’t implode, the Titans should win.

Titans 20, Jets 17

Pittsburgh vs. Minnesota (+1.5) in London: Two winless teams travel across the pond to demonstrate American football to our English cousins. Even better for the NFL marketing department, Minnesota looks to be starting backup QB Matt Cassel, as regular starter Christian Ponder has a rib issue.

I’m sure the hosts in London expected a much better Pittsburgh team. These Steelers are 0-3 because their offensive line is unable to do much of anything. Big Ben is getting clocked far too often, and it has forced costly turnovers. Chicago’s defense scored twice on the Steelers Sunday night, and the Vikings have guys who can bring the pressure in Jared Allen and Brian Robison. It used to be that the Pittsburgh defense could cover some of those woes, but that unit is the only one that has yet to force an opposing turnover all year. The famed Blitzburgh defense is also tied for last in sacks with just three.

Yet at the end of the day, it boils down to this for me: I can envision the Vikings being 0-4, but I cannot fathom the Steelers starting that way. Minnesota is probably the better team, but the better team doesn’t always win.

Steelers 20, Vikings 18 for 200 som

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-2.5): For those of you who love extensive breakdowns of Xs and Os, I did just that for Bleacher Report for this game.

In researching that piece, I actually became more and more optimistic about my Lions’ chances. Reggie Bush will play, and that gives an already potent Lions offense an even more dynamic weapon. He and Joique Bell just might be the most versatile 1-2 RB punch in the league. Matt Stafford has been pretty sharp, and dancing machine Joseph Fauria has emerged as a legit red zone threat. But what really makes me bullish about Detroit’s chances is the offensive line. The Lions rank first in sack percentage allowed and second in QB hurries allowed. In short, they give Stafford enough time to survey the field and find the matchup he likes.

The Bears will sorely miss Henry Melton, one of the better DTs in the game. Replacement Nick Collins has played well, but the Bears have absolutely no depth anymore. The lack of discipline in the Chicago safeties really jumps off game tape, and with Stafford having time you can bet the Lions will exploit it. Star corner Charles Tillman is gutting through an injury that has robbed him of initial burst, which means Calvin Johnson has a better chance to get free.

Yet I think the biggest key here is the Lions defensive line. Ndamukong Suh has been absolutely outstanding all season, while first round pick Ziggy Ansah has a strip sack in each game so far. If the Lions can avoid the dumbass penalties--they’ve had one on each of Ansah’s strip sacks--they can dominate an improved but still vulnerable Chicago offensive line. I think the home crowd fires them up. As long as Devin Hester doesn’t go crazy in the return game, Detroit wins.

Lions 30, Bears 24

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+4.5): Last week the Browns broke into the win column thanks to an unexpectedly bold performance by backup QB Brian Hoyer and a triumphant return by suspended wideout Josh Gordon. Cleveland rallied around the controversial Trent Richardson trade, defiantly rejecting the notion they are throwing away the season.

That confluence of positive momentum carried them over a lousy Minnesota team. All that is out the window against the Bengals. I expect excellent corner Leon Hall to slow down Gordon, and the defensive front will really test the Browns offensive line. I think the nerves hit Hoyer harder playing at home, and Cleveland really is home for the St. Ignatius product. I do still think Jordan Cameron has another big day, but so will rookie TE Tyler Eifert for the visitors.

Bengals 29, Browns 23

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5): I like to try and anticipate the lines on games before they come out. My initial guess here, based on how these two teams performed last week, was Colts by 12.5. So when I saw the line was five points lower than that, I tried to rationalize why.

Are the line makers really that unimpressed with how thoroughly the Colts defense throttled San Francisco’s infinitely superior offense? Did they really respect Chad Henne going 18-of-38 in Seattle despite being in garbage time for more than a half? Does home field really mean that much for a Jaguars team which has lost 8 of its last 9 in Jacksonville by an average margin of almost 20 points?

I’m not going to overthink this one. You shouldn’t either.

Colts 32, Jaguars 16 for 500 som

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3): There is a quarterback change in Tampa Bay. Coach Greg Schiano finally had enough of Josh Freeman completing a lower percentage than Tim Tebow (that’s not hyperbole, it’s true) and turning the ball over 16 times in their last 6 games. Enter Mike Glennon, the skinny fourth round rookie from North Carolina State.

I’ll break down my feelings on the move in this week’s $.10, but here I’ll stick strictly how it impacts this game against the 1-2 Cardinals. I think we will see a similar bump in the way Brian Hoyer unexpectedly led Cleveland to a win last week. Readers who follow my draft thoughts know I’m not a Glennon fan at all, but he is capable of having his good days. I think he has a good day here. I also think Tampa’s defense rises to the occasion for one day. Be real careful here though; Freeman holds considerable sway in the locker room and Schiano isn’t well-liked, which could facilitate an outright implosion.

Note that the line I used here is from before the Wed. morning announcement of the QB change.

Bucs 22, Cardinals 17 is the pick, but Arizona 30, Tampa Bay 6 wouldn’t surprise me one bit

New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5): This is another game where I guessed a line and was shocked when I saw the actual one from the professionals. The Giants have shown no indication at all that their endemic problems can be fixed quickly. Their offensive line is terrible. Their running backs are worse than that. Eli Manning continues to throw the ball to the wrong team, and some of those came on the rare occasion he actually had time to throw. Their pass rush is broken, and their back seven is not good enough in coverage to compensate.

Going to Kansas City is a real tough place to try and get things corrected. The Chiefs offense is unsustainable if Alex Smith doesn’t start at least trying to throw the ball down the field, but it’s effective enough to put up points on these Giants. I anticipated the line being Chiefs -8, and I won’t be surprised if the heavy money takes it in that direction. I’m hoping to cash in early on that money flow.

Chiefs 29, Giants 21 for 250 som

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+3.5): My son attends a year-round school, which has its positives and negatives. One of the negatives is that he gets random weeks off throughout the normal school year, and this is one of those weeks. As a result, I’m writing this with an extra kid at home and he’s begging me to let him help. In an effort to shoo him away for a little bit, I told him to simulate this game on Madden and tell me what happens. As I have no real strong feel one way or the other on this game, I’ll let it ride on Layne’s Wii results.

It was an interesting game on the Wii. Buffalo picked off Joe Flacco 3 times and also ran a kick back for a touchdown, but CJ Spiller fumbled and the Bills threw for just 206 yards and the Buffalo offense sputtered and the Ravens scored on two long pass plays to Torrey Smith. While I don’t find the methodology very likely, I can envision the final score being pretty accurate. Thanks Layne, now go play outside and leave me alone!

Ravens 28, Bills 20

Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiers (+3.5): I would feel a lot better about Oakland’s chances if we knew more about Terrelle Pryor’s status. He suffered a concussion in the Monday loss to Denver, but prior to that Pryor looked like a viable NFL quarterback. As of writing time (1:44 PM ET on Wed.) it appears Matt Flynn will get the start. It sets up nicely for Flynn to build upon his strange legend.

Flynn rose to prominence in Green Bay by filling in for Aaron Rodgers against a truly awful Lions defense a couple of years ago, putting up 480 yards and six touchdowns. He parlayed that into a free agent deal in Seattle, only to be usurped by Russell Wilson. Flynn then fled for greener pastures in Oakland, only to lose the starting role to Pryor. Yet now he’ll get a chance to face another truly awful defense. Washington has missed almost 50 tackles in their three games. Joique Bell broke four tackles on one TD run last week against them. Detroit had receivers running down the middle of the field completely uncovered more often than not against the young Washington secondary. It shapes up once again for Flynn to put up monster statistics.

Yet I think the Washington offense is finding its stride. RG3 showed real signs that he is almost back to his old self last week, and the Raiders defense doesn’t have near the pass rush or linebacking acumen that Detroit does. The Raiders might be even worse at tackling than the Skins, and Alfred Morris is good at breaking tackles anyways. I’ll take Griffin over Flynn in a shootout, and the Skins escape the ranks of the winless.

Ethnic Slurs 37, Raiders 31

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-10.5): To quote flamboyant boxing promoter Don King, I had “a moment of epiphanous  religiosity” while watching the Broncos on Monday Night Football

And now this game spotlights the false narrative of the fast-pace offense. Philadelphia and coach Chip Kelly are the main progenitors of the movement as far as the media is concerned. Yet a quick fact check proves that is as mythical as a griffin fighting a unicorn. The Eagles rank 15th in the league in offensive plays per game at 66.3; the league average is 66. But even more damning to this ongoing narrative is that their average plays per game is actually decreasing from last season. The 2012 Eagles averaged 67.4 plays per game, which ranked fifth in the league. Up tempo offenses are indeed increasing around the NFL, but the Eagles are not one of them. You have my permission to yell that at the screen when the hyper-amplified ESPN pregame crew keeps yelling about Kelly and his go-go offense when they frame this game.

You can expect a lot of offense in this game, even though it might come on fewer snaps than expected. These two teams lead the league in yards per play. This is where the attention turns to the defenses, and the Broncos have a clear advantage there. The pass defenses are equally toast-worthy, but Denver does a great job in bottling up the run. The Broncos lead the league in defensive yards per carry at just 2.3. The Eagles give up four yards per carry and are prone to missing too many tackles.

Broncos 41, Eagles 31

Dallas Cowboys at San Diego Chargers (+2.5): I hate it when teams lose key players to injury. It’s even worse when those players are playing under the franchise player tag. Such is the case for Dallas and defensive end Anthony Spencer, who was placed on IR this week. Spencer is an excellent foil opposite Demarcus Ware but a pass rushing force in his own right. Even though his replacement George Selvie has flashed some aptitude, Spencer will be sorely missed.

Having said that, I like the Cowboys here for a couple of reasons. First, the Cowboys defense is really good on third down, ranking fourth in the league. But they get there by being very good on first down defense. San Diego’s offense has been fantastic on third downs, but their rate of 52% is just not sustainable. Secondly, the Dallas defense is forcing turnovers and the Chargers defense is not. Even one extra opportunity or flip of field position can make the difference between these two evenly-matched teams.

Cowboys 24, Chargers 21 

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (-2): These Falcons are not the same team to which we’ve come to expect lately. The injuries have severely impacted the team. Even some of the guys still playing, like Roddy White, are not near 100 percent. That’s a very bad sign this early in the season. The loss of Sean Weatherspoon devastated the very youthful back seven on defense.

Into that setting comes the Patriots, who are actually getting healthier as the season progresses. Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski could both play this week. That makes Tom Brady downright scary once again, considering he’s still undefeated despite having a cast of receivers who would be lucky to be on Atlanta’s practice squad.

The forgotten unit here is New England’s defense, and that’s a crying shame. The Patriots are strong at all three levels. You might not know the names real well, but Rob Ninkovich, Alfonzo Dennard, and Steve Gregory are all playing better than advertised. As a whole, the Patriots defense meshes very well together. Their biggest vulnerability is speed across the middle, but that ship sailed on Tony Gonzalez a couple years ago and White is still gimpy himself. The Patriots defense carries the day, cooling off Hotlanta to a stunning 1-3 start.

Patriots 26, Falcons 20

Byes: Green Bay and Carolina

Monday Night

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5): The honchos behind choosing which games get the prime time treatment have to do a lot of guesswork when then schedule comes out in the spring. Sometimes they get burned; check out the Oct. 21st game between the Giants and Vikings, both of whom might still be winless. But they got this one right, banking on improvement from two non-playof teams a year ago.

Both the Dolphins and Saints enter this match undefeated. Most folks expected the Saints to be vastly improved with the return of Sean Payton to the sideline, but thus far it’s been the New Orleans defense which has risen up. I’ll admit to being highly critical of hiring Rob Ryan to run the defensive transformation, but so far, so good.

I think that early fortune runs out this week against Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins attack. Miami moves the ball effectively and is cashing in those yards for scores efficiently. I’ll be surprised if the visitors don’t put up at least four touchdowns…which might not be enough. Even though I respect Miami’s defense, their hands are full with the New Orleans offense. The Saints are highway stars on offense at home, a killing machine that can do everything. Hold tight, they are going to put on a show that can bring down the house like a Ritchie Blackmore guitar solo.

Saints 37, Dolphins 31 for 250 som

Betting recap:

Colts -7.5 for 500

49ers -3 for 300

Chiefs -4.5 for 250

Dolphins +6.5 for 250

Steelers -1.5 for 200

College Games

The slate looks very appetizing this week. I’ll be in South Bend for Oklahoma’s visit to Notre Dame.

Alabama 30, Ole Miss 22

Ohio State 36, Wisconsin 34

LSU 22, Georgia 21

Oklahoma 33, Notre Dame 24

UCF 25, South Carolina 20