RealGM Analysis
With fantasy football draft season beginning to wind down, here is an updated version of our Top-150 and position-by-position tiers.
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Jamaal Charles
3. Marshawn Lynch
4. Doug Martin
5. Arian Foster
6. Ray Rice
7. CJ Spiller
8. Lesean McCoy
9. Trent Richardson
10. Alfred Morris
11. Calvin Johnson
12. Aaron Rodgers
13. AJ Green
14. Drew Brees
15. Steven Jackson
16. Dez Bryant
17. Matt Forte
18. Jimmy Graham
19. Brandon Marshall
20. Stevan Ridley
21. Chris Johnson
22. Demaryius Thomas
23. Julio Jones
24. Maurice Jones-Drew
25. Randall Cobb
26. Peyton Manning
27. Cam Newton
28. Andre Johnson
29. Tom Brady
30. Roddy White
31. Larry Fitzgerald
32. Frank Gore
33. Darren Sproles
34. Matt Ryan
35. Reggie Bush
36. Lamar Miller
37. Vincent Jackson
38. David Wilson
39. Colin Kaepernick
40. Victor Cruz
41. Montee Ball
42. Matthew Stafford
43. Wes Welker
44. DeMarco Murray
45. Darren McFadden
46. Marques Colston
47. Reggie Wayne
48. Rob Gronkowski
49. Robert Griffin III
50. Ryan Mathews
51. Le'Veon Bell
52. Dwayne Bowe
53. Russell Wilson
54. Ahmad Bradshaw
55. Hakeem Nicks
56. Mike Wallace
57. Giovani Bernard
58. Steve Smith
59. Tony Gonzalez
60. Jason Witten
61. Chris Ivory
62. Rashard Mendenhall
63. Vernon Davis
64. Andrew Luck
65. Danny Amendola
66. Eric Decker
67. Tony Romo
68. Torrey Smith
69. Eli Manning
70. DeAngelo Williams
71. Mark Ingram
72. Pierre Garcon
73. Antonio Brown
74. James Jones
75. Eddie Lacy
76. DeSean Jackson
77. Jordy Nelson
78. Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis
79. Ben Roethlisberger
80. Joe Flacco
81. Kyle Rudolph
82. Owen Daniels
83. Cecil Shorts
84. Shane Vereen
85. Vick Ballard
86. Greg Jennings
87. Tavon Austin
88. Antonio Gates
89. Andre Brown
90. Darryl Richardson
91. Brandon Myers
92. Jared Cook
93. Anquan Boldin
94. Steve Johnson
95. Mikel Leshoure
96. Josh Gordon
97. Ben Tate
98. Jermichael Finley
99. Miles Austin
100. Golden Tate
101. Bryce Brown
102. Fred Jackson
103. Jay Cutler
104. Sidney Rice
105. Kenny Britt
106. Michael Floyd
107. Chris Givens
108. TY Hilton
109. Mike Williams
110. Seattle Seahawks
111. Jonathan Franklin
112. Michael Vick
113. Sam Bradford
114. Ryan Williams
115. San Francisco 49ers
116. Martellus Bennett
117. Andy Dalton
118. Brandon Pettigrew
119. Jermaine Gresham
120. Lance Moore
121. Denarious Moore
122. Philip Rivers
123. Fred Davis
124. Emmanual Sanders
125. Carson Palmer
126. Bernard Pierce
127. Isaiah Pead
128. Aaron Dobson
129. Justin Blackmom
130. Dwayne Allen
131. Josh Freeman
132. Houston Texans
133. Chicago Bears
134. Ed Dickson
135. Matt Schaub
136. Denver Broncos
137. Zac Stacy
138. Ryan Tannehill
139. Jonathan Stewart
140. Ryan Broyles
141. Alshon Jeffrey
142. Jacquizz Rodgers
143. Alex Smith
144. Kendall Wright
145. Cincinnati
146. Brandon Weeden
147. Brian Hartline
148. Rueben Randle
149. Ronnie Hillman
150. Joseph Randle
Final Word on Top-150:
Use the tier system below for your draft, and cross-check positional rankings with this chart. The positional tiers and the top 150 provide a strong roadmap for your draft, but feel free to adjust the rankings however you see fit. But make sure to use a tier system of some sort, as that’s the best way to ensure that you get good value for your picks. Also, one very important note:
KNOW THE RULES, ESPECIALLY THE SCORING SYSTEM, OF YOUR LEAGUE INSIDE AND OUT.
If your league requires you to start two QBs, then QBs get an additional bump. If you are in a points-per-reception league, then pass catching RBs like LeSean McCoy, Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush will move up. Knowing your league’s scoring system is critical to success.
Quarterbacks
Tier 1: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees
Tier 2: Peyton Manning, Cam Newton, Tom Brady
Tier 3: Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick, Matthew Stafford, Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson
Tier 4: Andrew Luck, Tony Romo, Eli Manning
Tier 5: Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Michael Vick
Tier 6: Sam Bradford, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Josh Freeman
Tier 7: Matt Schaub, Ryan Tannehill, Alex Smith, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder
* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
Analysis:
As you can see, we have terrific depth at QB this year. Unless you play in a league which starts 2 QBs, there is no urgency to select a QB early. What should be no surprise, Rodgers and Brees comprise the top tier, with Manning (the elder), Newton and Brady rounding up tier 2. Out of tier 3, Ryan is the safest bet, with the three mobile QBs and Matthew Stafford also strong options as a starting fantasy QB. Demonstrating just how deep the QB position is this year, the tier 4 group also sports solid starting options. and I find Manning (the younger) to be a bit underrated based on current ADP. Once you venture into tier 5 and beyond, you’re into backup QBs, although not necessarily disastrous if you need to start one of these guys.
So what’s the strategy here for QBs? My recommendation would be to wait before selecting your first QB. Because of the RB situation this season (10 or so top options, followed by question marks in the next group) and the outstanding QB depth, I would draft a stud RB with your first pick. If you want Rodgers or Brees, that’s fine, but wait until round 2. Otherwise, you can wait to draft a QB sometime in rounds 4 through 6, depending on how the draft board looks when your selection is up. Just to demonstrate the depth here, Romo and Eli Manning as the back end of tier 4 are the 12th and 13th QBs based on rank. In 12-team leagues, you can be the last to draft a QB and still get one of these two (or someone equivalent). Another strategy along those lines which I endorse is to wait on QB and grab a tier 4 guy, and follow that up by drafting another QB with your next few picks (giving you a solid 1-2 punch). This would give you the opportunity to play the matchups each week with two good QBs in hand. But the takeaway here is that we have a deep QB pool, so draft accordingly.
Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Cam Newton: While starting out slow last season, Newton caught fire late in 2012. He’s good for several rushing TDs, and he should continue to rack up lots of points.
Matthew Stafford: Stafford had a bit of a disappointing year based on the sky high expectations resulting from a historic 2011 campaign, but he should bounce back to elite levels this season. The addition of Reggie Bush should help quite a bit.
Eli Manning: The Giants are set to move the ball through the air quite a bit this season, and Manning will lead this underrated offense to great heights.
Sam Bradford: Bradford finally has the same offensive coordinator for two years in a row, and also has some shiny new toys in Tavon Austin and Jared Cook. No excuse for Bradford not to perform now.
Carson Palmer: While Palmer is good for 16-20 INTs every season, he can also be counted on to put some good yardage and TD numbers. With Fitz and Michael Floyd as weapons, look for Palmer to increase his fantasy relevancy this season.
Ryan Tannehill: Tannehill also has a shiny new toy in Mike Wallace, and otherwise is ready to make a leap in his second season.
Brandon Weeden: QBs under Norv Turner’s tutelage always see improvement, and Weeden will not buck that trend.
Running Backs
Tier 1: Adrian Peterson
Tier 2: Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Doug Martin, Arian Foster
Tier 3: Ray Rice, CJ Spiller, LeSean McCoy, Trent Richardson, Alfred Morris
Tier 4: Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, Stevan Ridley, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew
Tier 5: Frank Gore, Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Montee Ball, DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, Ryan Mathews, Le’Veon Bell, Ahmad Bradshaw
Tier 6: Giovani Bernard, Chris Ivory, Rashard Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, Mark Ingram, Eddie Lacy, Ben-Jarvis Green-Ellis, Darryl Richardson
Tier 7: Shane Vereen, Vick Ballard, Andre Brown, Mikel Leshoure, Ben Tate, Bryce Brown, Fred Jackson, Jonathan Franklin, Ryan Williams
Tier 8: Bernard Pierce, Isaiah Pead, Zac Stacy, Jonathan Stewart, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ronnie Hillman
* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
Analysis:
After a bit of a hiatus in 2012, the running back position has once again thrust itself into the forefront as the key fantasy football position come draft time. Looking at how the draft board shakes out, the RBs in tiers 1 through 3 are considered ‘safe’, while the players in tiers 4 and 5 have potential for strong seasons but with more risk, and the players in tiers 6 through 8 generally have lower ceilings, but with upside as well. Foster now falls to the back of Tier 2, and there’s legitimate concern that he will miss time during the regular season. If you grab Foster, make sure to grab Ben Tate as well.
So what’s the strategy with RBs? For starters, take one with your first pick. I would recommend selecting any of the running backs in tiers 1 through 3 before selecting Calvin Johnson, Aaron Rodgers or any other player at another position. You should aim for at least one stud RB (tiers 1-3). Afterwards, the best case scenario is to find a way to grab two RBs from the tier 4 through tier 5 group. Tier 5 especially has some intriguing first and second year players, but they come with risk, so best to have two guys from the tier 4-5 group to hedge your bets. Finally, grab two RBs from the tier 6 through 8 groups and see if you strike gold. Just like previous years, a few players will emerge from the lower tiers to make a strong impact, so take a shot with them as well. So in summary, grab 1) one with your top pick, 2) two within your top three picks, and 3) three within your top six selections.
Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Stevan Ridley: Talented RB with star potential, and Patriots will need to rely on the run more with Brady’s pass catching weapons depleted.
Chris Johnson: Upgrades on OL, skills still there and new offensive coordinator should be an improvement. Hope I don’t regret this.
Darren Sproles: Part of a dynamic offense with great QB; his receiving skills will get you points each week. Underrated fantasy player.
Reggie Bush: Ditto that of Sproles. Bush will fit in nicely into the Lions’ offense. Also, Bush showed last season that he can handle a solid dose of carrying the rock.
Lamar Miller: Played well in limited role last season; Dolphins offense should be significantly improved, and Miller has every opportunity to be the featured back.
Le’Veon Bell: Bell has every opportunity to be the Steelers’ starting RB, and is position to provide solid numbers in his rookie season. While Bell will start the season injured, don’t downgrade him too far.
Ahmad Bradshaw: Solid 2012 season, underrated by the fantasy world – great chance to shine with Colts.
Mark Ingram: Part of dynamic offense along with Sproles; should see increase in carries and rumored to be in fantastic shape.
Giovani Bernard: The word on the street is that Bernard has impressed in camp. While the law firm is solid, he’s far from spectacular. Bernard has a good chance to become the top dog in Cincy.
Wide Receivers
Tier 1: Calvin Johnson
Tier 2: AJ Green, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall
Tier 3: Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald
Tier 4: Vincent Jackson, Victor Cruz, Wes Welker, Marques Colston, Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe, Hakeem Nicks, Mike Wallace
Tier 5: Steve Smith, Danny Amendola, Eric Decker, Torrey Smith, Pierre Garcon, Antonio Brown, James Jones, DeSean Jackson, Jordy Nelson
Tier 6: Cecil Shorts, Greg Jennings, Tavon Austin, Anquan Boldin, Steve Johnson, Josh Gordon, Miles Austin, Golden Tate, Sidney Rice, Kenny Britt, Michael Floyd, Chris Givens
Tier 7: TY Hilton, Mike Williams, Lance Moore, Denarius Moore, Emmanual Sanders, Justin Blackmon, Ryan Broyles
Tier 8: Alshon Jeffery, Kendall Wright, Brian Hartline, Rueben Randle, Greg Little, Aaron Dobson, Santana Moss, Malcom Floyd, Brandon LaFell, Mohamed Sanu, Santonio Holmes, Robert Woods, Andre Roberts, Deandre Hopkins, Darrius Heyward-Bay
* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
Analysis:
As you can see, the wide receiver position runs quite deep this season. Not many surprises in the top five tiers. If you recall, in last season’s draft guide I projected AJ Green as a breakout top 3 WR, and he delivered. This season, I think Randall Cobb will knock on the door of the top 5 WR club, provided that he can stay healthy. As you go further down the tiers, you see some more familiar names and some breakout sleepers. So what’s the best approach with respect to WRs in your draft? Go ahead and grab one in your top 3 picks (either your second or third round pick depending on how the draft board shapes up), and one more with your next three picks. From there, grab at least one more established WR, and make sure to grab a few younger WRs with breakout possibility.
Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Randall Cobb: The Packers’ most talented receiver, Cobb will accumulate yards split wide and from backfield formations. Will take the next step this year to the NFL’s elite WRs.
Dwayne Bowe: Don’t sleep on Bowe – he remains a stud WR. Best reason for why Bowe’s numbers will rebound from last season? He’s got a competent QB tossing him the ball.
Josh Gordon: Suspended for the first four weeks, so take note of that. However, Gordon had a solid second season in 2012, and with the Browns now running Norv Turner’s offense, they will play in a more vertical fashion.
Golden Tate: Tate has quietly been improving each season. Now with Harvin out indefinitely, Tate will pick up the slack and become the Seahawks’ most valuable WR.
Michael Floyd: The Cardinals will be much improved on offense this season thanks to Carson Palmer. While Palmer will also throw his INTs, that’s not Floyd’s problem. Look for Floyd to have a strong second season.
Chris Givens: While Tavon Austin is getting lots of pub as the Rams’ new playmaker, Givens had a strong rookie season and should not be overlooked. Expect continued improvement in his sophomore campaign.
Ryan Broyles: The Lions’ offense is a juggernaut, and Broyles has the skills to put up numbers opposite of Megatron.
Rueben Randle: Randle has impressed in camp, and the Giants will have a strong passing game this season. Add the strong likelihood that Hakeem Nicks will be injured at some point, and Randle makes for a good late round sleeper.
Robert Woods: The most NFL ready of all the rookie WRs, Woods has immense talent, and will be a difference maker in Buffalo this season.
Tight Ends
Tier 1: Jimmy Graham
Tier 2: Rob Gronkowski
Tier 3: Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Vernon Davis
Tier 4: Kyle Rudolph, Greg Olsen, Owen Daniels, Antonio Gates, Brandon Myers, Jared Cook, Jermichael Finley
Tier 5: Martellus Bennett, Brandon Pettigrew, Jermaine Gresham, Fred Davis, Dwayne Allen, Ed Dickson
Tier 6: Zach Sudfeld, Jordan Cameron, Coby Fleener, Zach Miller, Tyler Eifert, Rob Housler, Heath Miller, Brent Celek, Marcedes Lewis
* Players in bold are those players that I expect to significantly outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
Analysis:
The tight end position shares many similarities to the catcher position in fantasy baseball – a few top notch options, followed by a significant drop-off with a large group bunched together. The way things shape up, 10 weeks of Gronk has more value than all but one tight end for the full season. Just like WR, you will find solid value in the fourth and fifth tiers, and no need to rush to select a TE unless Graham or Gronkowski fall further than expected in your draft.
As for the strategy here, personally I would not select a TE before my seventh pick. I’d rather have 3 RBs, 2 WRs and 1 QB in hand before I pick my first TE. Starting a TE from the fourth tier is more than acceptable, so wait to pick a TE until after you’ve solidified your QB, RB and WR spots.
Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each player in bold has a good chance to outperform his ADP:
Brandon Myers: As Myers showed while with the Raiders, he’s a solid offensive weapon. The Giants will be a pass happy team, and with the upgrade at QB, Myers should see an increase in production.
Jared Cook: A popular sleeper, Cook will be featured in the Rams offense, and will be used all over the place, including the backfield. He has the potential to become a top 5 TE.
Dwayne Allen: Allen had a very nice rookie season, and look for him to build upon that with an also quickly improving Andrew Luck.
Zach Sudfeld: Word on the street is that Tom Brady has taken a liking to Sudfeld as a downfield weapon. Someone needs to replace Hernandez, and why not take a flyer on Sudfeld?
Defense/Special Teams
Tier 1: Seattle, San Francisco
Tier 2: Houston, Chicago, Denver, Cincinnati
Tier 3: New England, Baltimore, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Miami, Arizona, Green Bay
Tier 4: New York Giants, Tampa Bay, New York Jets, Cleveland, Atlanta, Dallas
Tier 5: Minnesota, Washington, Carolina, San Diego, Kansas City
* Teams in bold are those that I expect to outperform their average draft position based on current ADP.
Analysis:
Each season you have strong defensive units along with weaker ones, and this season is no different. Seattle and San Francisco lead the rankings, and the Ds listed through tier 3 are all fine as your top option. In terms of strategy, it really comes down to the scoring system in your league, as scoring systems for defenses tend to vary greatly among leagues. Typically you will want to select your defenses late, and as a general guideline, I would make sure that the QB, RB, WR and TE positions are taken care of prior to selecting a D (at least for the QB, RB and WR positions, you should have a solid backup in place as well before selecting a QB). But, if your league places a high emphasis on D points, then this plan is subject to change. Know your leagues scoring system well. I would select D over kickers in virtually any league.
Finally, a quick rapid-fire note as to why I think each team in bold has a good chance to outperform its ADP:
Cincinnati: The Bengals defense had a strong season in 2012, with Geno Atkins leading the way. No reason not to see improvement in 2013.
Baltimore: Don’t be distracted by the number of changes made on D this season. Ozzie Newsome injected some much needed youth into the D, and it should be improved from last year’s Super Bowl season.
Miami: Miami has quietly been building a strong D, and look for this unit to take the next step this season.
- Neema is available on Twitter to answer your fantasy questions now and throughout the season.
